IG 市场分析师托尼・西卡莫尔表示："随着后续更多谈判的提上日程，市场对中东石油供应即刻中断的 担忧已大幅缓解。" 上周五，美伊双方在阿曼举行的磋商取得积极进展，此后两国承诺将继续推进谈判。此前市场担忧，若 谈判破裂，中东地区的冲突风险或将升级，而美国此前已在该地区增派了更多军事力量，此次谈判的积 极信号也缓解了这一顾虑。 全球约五分之一的石油贸易运输需经由阿曼与伊朗之间的霍尔木兹海峡。 因美国与伊朗承诺继续就伊朗核问题进行间接谈判，市场对中东地区冲突的担忧有所缓解，潜在的石油 供应中断顾虑消退，国际油价在周一下跌超 1%。 截至格林尼治标准时间 2 月 9 日 7 时 47 分，伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌 84 美分，跌幅 1.2%，报每 桶 67.21 美元；美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格下跌 82 美分，跌幅 1.3%，报每桶 62.73 美元。 受地区紧张局势缓和影响，两大原油期货指标上周均下跌超 2%，创下七周以来的首次回落。 不过，伊朗外长表态称，若遭美军袭击，伊朗将对美国在中东地区的军事基地展开反击，这也表明地区 冲突的潜在风险仍在酝酿。 辉立新星高级市场分析师普里扬卡・萨赫德瓦称："各方言辞立 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective rise, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.76% to surpass the 27,000-point mark, driven by positive market sentiment following a significant rise in US stocks and a rebound in commodities like gold and silver [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.76%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.52% and 1.34%, respectively [1] - Major technology and financial stocks were active, contributing to the market's upward movement, with Baidu rising approximately 4% and China Ping An leading insurance stocks with a nearly 5% increase [1] Group 2: Sector Highlights - AI application stocks surged, with Zhizhu Technology soaring over 40% to reach a new high following Elon Musk's statement about AI deployment in space [1] - Gold stocks led a rally in the metals sector, with a focus on opportunities in non-ferrous metals as indicated by Guotai Junan [1] - Other sectors such as semiconductors, wind power, heavy machinery, gambling, coal, dining, and domestic real estate stocks also saw gains [1] Group 3: Underperforming Stocks - The three major telecom operators faced pressure, with China Telecom declining nearly 3% [1] - Several beverage stocks that had risen previously experienced declines, and the oil prices showed volatility amid renewed US-Iran negotiations, affecting the three major oil companies [1] - Lanke Technology saw a significant increase of nearly 64% on its first trading day [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (2.2-2.6) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油现跌后升震荡运行。纽约交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶63.50美元，周跌3.41%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶 68.10美元，周跌2.48%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至474.2元/桶，周涨0.72%。周内前期，由于伊朗和美国仍存谈判可能，市场担忧情绪缓和 导致油价承压大幅下跌。据伊朗媒体报道，伊朗总统下令同美国启动核谈判，伊朗可能在未来几天同美国举行高规格谈判。但另一方面，市场 密切关注伊朗局势以及美国可能的军事干预，美国总统特朗普表示，派往中东的美国舰队规模大于派往委内瑞拉的舰队，并威胁 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 分区域来看，辽宁、甘肃、青海、内蒙古、四川、江苏、江西、山西汽油批发价格上涨，重庆、安徽、 浙江、广东、福建、海南、广西汽油批发价格下跌；辽宁、甘肃、海南柴油批发价格上涨，青海、福 建、陕西、北京、宁夏、上海、天津、江苏、河南、广东柴油批发价格下跌。山东地炼方面，汽油价格 小幅下跌，柴油价格大幅下跌。 中国汽、柴油批发价格由中国经济信息社-中国石油经济技术研究院"能源大数据实验室"联合上海石油 天然气交易中心发布，基于对全国范围内主要经营单位和社会经营单位（不含炼厂）的批发价格数据采 集并计算形成，是反映中国汽、柴油批发市场整体情况的权威产品。 新华财经北京2月9日电中国汽、柴油批发价格显示，2月6日，中国汽、柴油批发价格整体"汽稳柴跌"。 全国92#汽油平均批发价格为7427元／吨，与前一日持平；柴油（含低凝点）平均批发价格为6088元／ 吨，较前一日下跌12元／吨。 从市场整体情况来看，2月5日国际原油期货价格收跌，一揽子原油平均价格变化率正向幅度收窄，消息 面利好支撑减弱。终端需求未见实质性改善，业者多持观望态度，市场购销氛围清淡。 ...

国信证券主要观点如下： 1月油价回顾 2026年1月布伦特原油期货均价为64.7美元/桶，环比上涨3.1美元/桶，月末收于70.7美元/桶;WTI原油期 货均价60.2美元/桶，环比上涨2.4美元/桶，月末收于65.2美元/桶。1月上旬，美国对委内瑞拉实施制 裁，并抓捕马杜罗总统夫妇，委内瑞拉向美国移交数千万桶原油增加石油供应，国际油价震荡下跌;1月 中上旬，伊朗爆发抗议活动，且美国可能对伊朗采取军事行动，引发对伊朗出口可能减少的担忧，国际 油价大幅上涨;1月中下旬，哈萨克斯坦油田暂时停产，但特朗普对欧洲八国加征关税，油价窄幅震荡;1 月下旬，美国对伊朗实施新制裁，特朗普重新发动军事威胁，极寒天气天然气价格暴涨，油价宽幅上 涨。 供给端 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2026年1月布伦特原油期货及WTI原油期货均价环比上涨。 供给端看，OPEC+决定2026年3月继续暂停增产。需求端，国际主要能源机构预计2026年原油需求增长 93-130万桶/天，预计2027年原油需求增长129-134万桶/天。政策推动下，该行预计国内炼油炼化行业供 给侧将得到有力优化。此外，预计2026年布伦特油价中枢在55- ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.73% on February 9, 2026[1] - A total of 2,609 stocks rose while 2,475 stocks declined, with total trading volume exceeding 2.14 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous period[1] Market Trends - The market is experiencing a low opening followed by a high rise and then a retreat, indicating a lack of clear direction[1] - Investors are advised to either look for a breakout above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages or seek support near the 60-day moving average[1] Sector Performance - Resource sectors such as mining, energy metals, jewelry, batteries, chemicals, and oil saw significant gains due to rising prices driven by geopolitical tensions and economic recovery[1] - Conversely, sectors like commercial retail, liquor, tourism, aerospace, media, and airports faced notable declines[1] Fund Flows - On February 6, 2026, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange amounted to 16.369 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 19.644 billion yuan[4] Economic Indicators - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51% in January 2026, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing activity[5][6] - The Asian manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 51%, while the Americas' PMI increased to 51.8%[6] Investment Insights - Investors are encouraged to selectively buy into resource-related stocks as prices of upstream raw materials are expected to rise further with economic recovery[1] - In January 2026, global gold ETFs attracted a record inflow of 18.7 billion USD, bringing total assets under management to 669 billion USD, marking a historical high[12]

2月6日，"中东因素"成为市场资金流动的重要推手，文华财经石油板块上涨0.98%，成为涨幅最大的板块，资 金净流入33.66亿元，而化工板块下跌0.78%，资金净流入14.31亿元。 波斯湾风云再起，全球化工市场暗流涌动。 当前美伊对峙已触高危临界点，全球目光集中在伊美核谈判上，国际油价存在超预期反弹的风险。伊朗是全球 能源化工产品重要供应国，原油、燃料油等品种出口占比显著，且波斯湾—霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源运输"咽 喉"，一旦冲突发生将直接影响供应与运输安全。 2月6日，在国内商品期货市场情绪趋向谨慎，资金继续撤离的大背景下，石油期货板块逆势获得近34亿元资金 青睐，化工期货板块也吸引超14亿元资金流入，原油及橡胶等均获大量资金加持。 中东持续拉响警报 根据卓创资讯数据，在跟踪的319个产品中，207个品种上涨，上涨品种环比增加69个。其中，涨幅居前的分别 为液氯、氢氧化锂、乙腈、碳酸锂和丁二烯，涨幅分别为71.43%、44.10%、32.86%、25.58%和25.31%。69个 品种下跌，下跌品种环比减少78 个。跌幅居前的分别是双氧水、硝酸、烧碱、煤油和氩气，分别下跌 18.40%、16.71%、13. ...

那些原本运往印度的油轮，很可能很快转向中国。能源贸易的本质就是市场的博弈，谁能够稳定，谁就能够抢占更 多的市场份额。中国拥有更庞大、更活跃的市场，俄罗斯如果选择将油卖给中国，恐怕连美国都在想方设法将自家 的能源输送到中国市场。大家互相博弈，但中国市场的确定性无疑是最为亮眼的。对于俄罗斯来说，若印度退潮， 油价的折扣更加明显，中国无疑将成为最大受益者。 印度最近提出停止购买俄罗斯石油，这个举动表面上看似是在对俄罗斯表现出强硬态度，实则背后充满了讨价还价 的成分。莫迪此举，表面上是站队，但其真正的意图则是在与美国进行贸易谈判时利用这一点作为筹码。在大国博 弈的能源棋局中，最忌讳的就是自作聪明。莫迪或许认为通过将俄罗斯的石油作为筹码，能够换来美国的让步，但 实际上，这一举动很可能会让印度的信用被大大折扣。 特朗普曾公开表示，美印之间已经达成了贸易协议，只是双方为了避免外界过多关注而选择低调处理。这背后隐藏 着的交易，不是完全光明正大，一方要面子，一方要里子。特朗普宣称，美国将把对印度商品加征的关税降至 18%，这并不是美国在坚持原则，而是在精打细算、讲求交易的价格。 当印度承诺停止购买俄罗斯石油并承诺购买价值超过5 ...

Group 1 - The Cuban government has issued a warning to international airlines operating in the country about an impending fuel shortage due to a U.S. oil blockade, which will lead to the depletion of aviation fuel starting from February 9 [1] - The official navigation notice from the Cuban government states that the aviation fuel shortage will affect all international airports in Cuba, with the notice being effective for one month from February 10 to March 11 [1] - The Chinese embassy in Cuba has advised Chinese citizens to pay attention to changes in flights to Cuba and associated travel risks, indicating that the fuel shortage has already impacted international flights [1] Group 2 - In response to the fuel crisis, the Cuban government has announced an emergency plan aimed at maintaining operations without importing crude oil or refined products, which includes measures such as halting diesel sales, reducing working hours for hospitals and government institutions, and closing some hotels [1] - The situation has been exacerbated by an executive order signed by U.S. President Trump on January 29, threatening to impose tariffs on goods from countries supplying oil to Cuba [1]

Core Viewpoint - India has chosen to abandon its oil cooperation with Iran, which has pleased Trump, who is now urging China to follow suit and recognize the situation [1][12]. Group 1: India's Oil Decisions - India has maintained its oil transactions with Russia for a long time but has quickly yielded on the Iran issue due to pressure from U.S. sanctions [1][9]. - The decision to purchase oil from Venezuela instead of Iran is seen as a reflection of the success of U.S. policy, with Trump inviting China to adopt a similar approach [3][12]. - India's leadership faced a dilemma between the attractive pricing of Russian oil and the need to avoid conflict with the U.S., ultimately leading to a shift in its oil sourcing strategy [9][10]. Group 2: U.S. and Venezuela Relations - Venezuela has provided 50 million barrels of high-quality oil to the U.S., generating $5.2 billion in revenue, with an agreement for profits to be shared between the U.S. and Venezuela [1]. - Trump criticized Venezuela for selling oil to China at unfair prices, claiming that U.S. control would adjust prices to international market levels [3][5]. - The U.S. has implemented significant military presence in the Caribbean to exert pressure on Venezuela, which raises concerns about international law violations [5]. Group 3: China's Position - Venezuela's oil constitutes only 4% of China's total oil imports, indicating minimal impact on China's energy strategy [7]. - China has not increased its oil imports from Venezuela following Trump's announcement, suggesting that Trump's call for China to follow India's lead may lack significance [7][12]. - China maintains a strong economic position and trade autonomy, allowing it to withstand U.S. pressures without compromising its relationships with other countries, particularly in the energy sector [12].