光大证券主要观点如下： 中国AI应用的三大机遇：实业深耕、外展出海、端侧重构 中国AI的工业场景红利：我国拥有全球唯一完整的工业体系，能提供高价值的现实世界数据/应用场景/ 能源供应，并将催生多元的Agent形态。现代化产业体系建设在"十五五"规划建议中提升至首位，预 计"人工智能+"将在十五五期间获政策密集支持。 智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，2025年全球科技投资热情不减，但呈现"强算力、弱应用"的 结构性分化。明年在C端寻找AI原生的交互范式、在B端深入高含金量的垂类场景赋能，其中蕴含较大 的机会。2026年建议关注确定性较高的三条主线：1)产业赋能：重点关注拥有行业Knowhow和数据的公 司。2)应用出海：优先考虑海外收入占比高的AI应用企业。3)端侧AI：爆品出现概率增加，AI硬件品牌 商以及算法厂商受益。 2025年全球科技投资热情不减，但呈现"强算力、弱应用"的结构性分化 全球科技巨头大幅扩大资本开支，上游的算力芯片/配套硬件直接受益，但与此同时计算机/软件板块面 临三重压力：1)软件公司业绩增速整体远低于算力链;2)与硬件相比，软件公司估值并不便宜;3)"大模型 吞噬软件"的担忧持 ...

| 代码 | 最新融资余额（亿元） | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子 | 3703.59 | 14.09 | 0.38 | | 国防军工 | 875.91 | 10.06 | 1.16 | | 有色金属 | 1209.40 | 9.46 | 0.79 | | 通信 | 1186.82 | 8.22 | 0.70 | | 电力设备 | 2164.34 | 5.28 | 0.24 | | 商贸零售 | 291.23 | 3.97 | 1.38 | | 非银金融 | 1876.82 | 3.50 | 0.19 | | 传媒 | 498.50 | 3.33 | 0.67 | | 农林牧渔 | 301.70 | 1.78 | 0.59 | | 公用事业 | 513.18 | 1.62 | 0.32 | | 机械设备 | 1307.06 | 1.58 | 0.12 | | 石油石化 | 234.03 | 1.22 | 0.52 | | 基础化工 | 982.68 | 0.87 | 0.09 | | 纺织服饰 | 81.64 | 0.59 | 0 ...

截至12月19日，北交所融资融券余额合计77.54亿元，较前一交易日增加3874.88万元，其中，融资余额 77.54亿元，较前一交易日增加3869.20万元，融券余额为35.17万元，较前一交易日增加5.68万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至12月19日，北交所股票中，融资余额居前的为锦波生物、曙光数创、 贝特瑞，最新融资余额分别为3.92亿元、3.67亿元、3.23亿元，从最新融资余额占流通市值比例看，算 术平均值为1.35%，最新融资余额占流通市值比例居前的有奥迪威、海达尔、视声智能等，占比分别为 4.54%、3.99%、3.53%。 北交所股票中，12月19日共有166只股获融资净买入，净买入金额在百万元以上的有43只，并行科技融 资净买入额居首，当日净买入1555.72万元，其次是禾昌聚合、汉鑫科技，融资净买入金额分别为851.88 万元、541.83万元，融资净买入金额居前的还有星辰科技、奥迪威、同惠电子等。融资净卖出金额居前 的股票为天力复合、戈碧迦、纳科诺尔等，融资净卖出金额分别为1540.27万元、1498.59万元、956.49 万元。 分行业统计，获融资净买入超百万元的北交所股票中， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services sector [11]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the darkest period has passed, and AI is driving a new round of transformation cycles. Cost reduction is driving profit recovery, while insufficient demand remains a core contradiction in the sector. The revenue growth rate for the sector is expected to remain low from 2022 to 2024, with a weak recovery anticipated in 2025. The apparent profit growth is significantly driven by cost control measures [7][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The computer industry is experiencing a weak recovery in 2025, with total revenue reaching 482.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The contract liabilities in the computer industry reached 95.57 billion yuan by Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [20][23]. AI and Application Focus - The report emphasizes that the current narrative in the sector revolves around the application of AI. The AI application monetization is still in its early stages, and the focus should be on application giants and foundational resources. The competition in the model side is intensifying, with leading models like GPT-5 and Gemini-3 exploring commercial monetization paths [7][9]. Infrastructure and Resource Allocation - The report highlights that the AI-driven arms race is beneficial for foundational resources, particularly in cloud computing and domestic computing power. Major companies are increasing capital expenditures (Capex) to enhance future competitiveness rather than immediate profits. The domestic token market is expected to see significant growth in the coming year, further boosting demand for computing power [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the computer sector has undergone various phases in 2025, including "main line convergence" and "wide fluctuations." As of December 14, 2025, the Yangtze Computer Index has risen by 17.7%, ranking 16th among primary industries [7][33]. Profitability and Valuation - The apparent profit growth for the computer industry in Q1-Q3 2025 reached 12.41 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 184.0% year-on-year. The industry’s gross profit margin stabilized at 31.71%, with a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. The report indicates that the overall valuation of the sector remains relatively high, with the latest PE-TTM at 65.31 times, placing it in the 86th percentile since 2016 [23][26]. Application and Model Development - The report stresses the importance of digital infrastructure as a prerequisite for AI implementation. It identifies potential early adopters in various sectors such as creative industries, customer service, e-commerce, recruitment, taxation, multimodal applications, and judicial scenarios [9][49]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for AI, with significant advancements in model capabilities and task performance. The competition among major players is expected to intensify, leading to a critical period for market share acquisition [9][49].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recovery and growth potential of the consumer sector, driven by policy support and increasing consumer demand during the traditional consumption peak season [1][5][6] - The consumer sector index showed signs of stabilization and rebound, with a 1.33% increase on December 19, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - The consumer market is expected to see double-digit growth over the next two years, with retail sales projected to rise from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [5][6] Group 2 - The consumer sector is currently experiencing a valuation adjustment, with the consumer index's latest price-to-earnings ratio at 23.29, significantly below the 10-year average of 28.56 [6] - Institutional predictions indicate that the net profit growth for the consumer sector index constituents is expected to exceed 14% in 2026 and 2027, with a projected total net profit of nearly 460 billion yuan for 2025 [6] - A total of 87 stocks in the consumer sector have seen an average increase of over 28% this year, with significant contributions from the electronics and biopharmaceutical sectors [8] Group 3 - Notable stocks such as 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology) and 迈瑞医疗 (Mindray) have received substantial institutional attention, with the former seeing a 22.91% increase in stock price and over 1,600 institutional surveys this year [9][11] - The financing balance for the consumer sector stocks has increased by over 45% compared to the end of last year, with more than 70% of the stocks receiving additional financing [8][11] - Companies like 东鹏饮料 (Eastroc Beverage) are expanding their product lines and exploring overseas markets, indicating a strategic focus on growth and market penetration [10]

Group 1: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - Recent preparations by professional investors for year-end market trends have been noted, with public funds conducting intensive research on companies such as Zhongke Shuguang, Haiguang Information, Luxshare Precision, Changan Automobile, and others, primarily in the manufacturing sector [1] - Institutions believe that the recent market adjustment will provide better investment opportunities for the upcoming year, with structural market trends making certain underperforming sectors more attractive [1] - Analysts from Penghua Fund and Xingzheng Global Fund express optimism about advanced manufacturing, cyclical stocks, and high-performing non-bank stocks, indicating that the upward market trend remains intact despite short-term fluctuations [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The lithium battery industry is expected to maintain high demand due to the growth in electric vehicle sales and unexpected storage needs, leading to improved profitability across the supply chain [2] - The innovative drug sector in Hong Kong remains a focus for institutions, with a positive outlook on the industry’s fundamentals and the ongoing trend of innovative drugs going global, which is expected to enhance the upstream supply chain's performance [2] - The commercial aerospace and satellite industry is transitioning from speculative hype to a fundamentals-driven phase, with investment opportunities emerging across the supply chain, particularly in rocket and satellite manufacturing and related applications [3]

从销售净利率来看，A股部分行业存在费用控制与需求不足并存的现象 。多数行业销售毛利率下降反映出终端需求弱、价格传导不畅的问题，而销售净利率的回升 则得益于期间费用优化，尤其是财务费用和销售费用。从资产周转率和资产负债率来看，A股行业运营效率有所企稳，同时杠杆维持稳健。资产周转率过去一年整 体回落但Q3边际改善，与产能利用率的回升一致。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 我们聚焦2025Q3万得全A的盈利分析，通过杜邦分解和供需格局等视角，寻找上市公司盈利数据背后的宏观线索，以辅助宏观经济的跟踪与研判，可以发现：1） ROE的企稳主要靠销售净利率提升（费用控制）支撑，但销售毛利率持续承压，说明宏观需求偏弱的背景下企业更多依赖"节流"而非"开源"来稳定盈利；此外，从 资产周转率和资产负债率来看，上市公司运营效率有所改善，同时杠杆水平维持稳定。2）我们通过产能利用率与资本开支/折旧摊销来观察行业供需格局，观察到 17个行业中有10个行业处于产能利用率低且资本开支/折旧摊销低的状态，在宏观上意味着多数行 ...

Scaling Law 依然成立，"大模型+大算力+大数据"成为可能实现通用智能的主要路线之一。 ①基础模型仍在快速迭代，Scaling Law 依然成立，基础大模型 的语言、视觉和多模态能力快速迭代，近期Gemini 3.0、DeepSeek 3.2相继发布，目前市场在等待DeepSeek V4/R2的出现。②底层大模型Tokens调用量 飞升，AI应用加速渗透。阿里千问APP公测23天，月活突破3000万。腾讯AI投入促进增长，增长反哺AI。字节发布豆包手机助手，应用的潘多拉盒子被打 开。③"大模型+大算力+大数据"成为可能实现通用智能的主要路线之一。2025年中国加速服务器出货量将同比增长56.3%，AI芯片未来4年复合增速 53.7%。数据是推动人工智能的"燃料"，高质量多模态数据集成为模型能力提升关键。 泛信创，从党政向行业渗透，构建自主生态。 ①相关文件要求国央企落实信息化系统的信创国产化改造，全面替换 ：OA、门户、邮箱、纪检、党群、档案、 经营管理 。应替就替：战略决策、ERP、风控管理、CRM管理系统 。能替就替：生产制造、研发系统。②需求端：《电子信息制造业2025－2026年稳增长 行动 ...

从一周涨跌幅来看，本周换手率超过100%的个股中，华人健康、西测测试、汉鑫科技涨幅居前。 本周共有67只个股换手率超过100%。其中，大鹏工业排名居首，周换手率达到259.83%，三羊马周换手 率224.61%，雪人集团周换手率209.64%。 按照申万一级行业分类看，本周换手率100%以上的个股中，所属机械设备、计算机、电力设备等行业 的个股居多。 ...

Group 1 - A total of 9 companies are scheduled for IPO review next week, aiming to raise a combined capital of 9.111 billion yuan [1] - The companies include Ying's Holdings, Shenglong Co., Shiya Technology, and others, with various industries represented such as food manufacturing, non-ferrous metal mining, and electronic equipment manufacturing [2][6] - Ying's Holdings is a leading enterprise in the infant food industry in China, focusing on nutritional care for infants and young children [6][7] Group 2 - Shenglong Co. is a major molybdenum company in China, engaged in the comprehensive development and utilization of non-ferrous metal resources [15][16] - Shiya Technology specializes in micro-display solutions, being the first to achieve mass production of silicon-based OLED micro-displays [10][11] - Dapu Microelectronics focuses on enterprise-level SSD products, with a strong capability in self-research and development [20][21] Group 3 - Longyuan Co. specializes in the research, production, and sales of aluminum alloy precision die-casting parts, primarily for the automotive industry [25][26] - Fuen Co. is a global supplier of eco-friendly fabrics, emphasizing sustainable development in its operations [33] - Sanrui Intelligent Technology is a leading manufacturer of drone and robot power systems, actively developing products for electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft [29][30]