智通财经APP获悉，10月13日，Wind发布2025年前三季度中国并购市场交易排行榜。据Wind数据统计，2025年前三季度，中国并购市场 (包含中国企业跨境并购)整体活跃度保持平稳，共披露5,870起并购事件，同比微增0.51%;交易规模约14,981亿元，同比下降约2.61%。百 亿元规模以上的并购事件共19起，其中海光信息吸收合并中科曙光100%股权的事件以1,159.67亿元的交易规模排名第一;新奥股份子公司 收购新奥能源65.89%股权的事件以552.97亿元的交易规模排名第二;大连万达商管出售48家万达广场以500.00亿元的交易规模排名第三。 从财务顾问参与并购事件的规模来看，以并购事件首次公告日为统计口径，中金公司以2,410.04亿元位居财务顾问榜首，中信证券和中邮 证券分别以2,400.85亿元和1,163.67亿元位列第二名和第三名。以并购交易完成日为统计口径，中信证券以2,248.34亿元位居榜首，中信建 投和东方证券分别以1,566.15亿元和1,055.92亿元位列第二名和第三名。 1.1 近三年中国并购市场规模与趋势 2025年前三季度，中国并购市场共披露了5,870起并购事件 ...

房地产专家Gavin Hegney指出，一处优美的景观足以让房价提升50%至60%。 Hegney表示，如果这些房产位于其他主要城市，部分住宅的估价可能会高出约50万澳元。他补充道，Doubleview一些地势较高的观景点独具特色：白天可 远眺大海，夜晚则能欣赏城市天际线。 南珀斯的河景、国王公园的绿意、海滩的开阔、山丘的高远——每个人心中都有属于自己的"珀斯最佳景观"。有人偏爱Fremantle的港口风光，也有人认 为，从Doubleview远眺城市、山丘与海岸的全景最令人惊叹。 尽管人们对"珀斯最美的景观"看法不一，但可以肯定的是，一处迷人的景观往往能让房产价值大幅提升，甚至增加数百万澳元。 房地产估值专家Hegney指出，与附近无景观的同类房产相比，拥有优美景观的住宅价值可提升50%至60%。 （图片来源：西澳人报） Hegney的研究基于几组对比案例，包括Leighton Beach同一公寓楼的两套住宅、Peppermint Grove的两块土地，以及珀斯山丘地区的两栋家庭住宅，以分析 景观对房价的影响。 他指出，市场往往需要较长时间才能充分体现景观价值，因此一些拥有壮丽景观的郊区房产多年来甚至数十年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for the real estate industry to embrace a new model, focusing on high-quality development in housing and urban construction [1][4] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," the housing and urban construction system aims to improve living conditions and urban environments, with significant achievements reported [1][2] - The government has established a multi-tiered housing security system to address the basic housing needs of vulnerable groups, including public rental housing and affordable housing [2][3] Group 2 - The total construction of various types of affordable housing and urban renovation projects during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to exceed 11 million units, benefiting over 30 million people [2] - The cumulative sales of new residential properties during this period are projected to reach approximately 5 billion square meters, indicating a robust housing market [2] - The real estate market is transitioning to a stock era, with signs of stabilization in both new and second-hand housing transactions [3] Group 3 - The new real estate development model aims to adapt to significant changes in supply and demand dynamics, promoting stable and healthy market development [4] - Key initiatives include improving the housing supply system, establishing a linkage mechanism for resources, and reforming the development, financing, and sales systems [4] - The emphasis on "good housing" focuses on quality standards, design, materials, construction, and maintenance, with a commitment to enhancing living conditions [5] Group 4 - The government is actively promoting the delivery of over 7.5 million units of housing that have been sold but not yet delivered, ensuring the protection of buyers' rights [3] - The focus on "good housing" will also extend to the renovation of old neighborhoods and the construction of affordable housing [5] - Future efforts will continue to align with urban development and renewal, aiming for a well-structured supply system and a stable real estate market [5]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 12 Oct 2025 中国宏观 China Macro "反内卷"的路径选择与需求侧机遇 Path Selection for "Anti-Involution" and Demand-Side Opportunities Shengzu Wang 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA 本文系统回顾了 2015 年重工业供给侧改革，并对"反内卷"做出展望。"反内卷"未来根据市场化程度的不同有两条路径，需求侧 持续发力，建议关注相关机会。 1、2015 年供给侧改革： sz.wang@htisec.com amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) ②若依赖市场化竞争来实现产能出清，或需要较长时间，这种情况下预计主要推动力为行业自律协会的号召，政策方面主要依 靠减少政府补助。短期内 ...

Economic Indicators - As of October 12, 2025, the ELI index is -0.64%, down 0.20 percentage points from last week, indicating a potential seasonal rebound in new loans for September[2] - The average growth of new loans from September 2022 to September 2024 was 2.12 trillion yuan, while in September 2024, only 1.59 trillion yuan was added, reflecting a policy shift away from scale[2] - The expected new loans for September 2025 are around 1.60 trillion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of approximately 200 billion yuan[2] Government Financing and Social Financing - In September 2025, government net financing, including national and local government bonds, was 1.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.51 trillion yuan[2] - The expected social financing scale for September 2025 is 3.3 trillion yuan, with a month-end growth rate potentially declining to 8.6%[2] - The government is expected to implement "steady growth" measures in fiscal and monetary policies in the fourth quarter to counteract the decline in social financing growth[2] Supply and Demand Indicators - The ECI supply index is at 49.99%, down 0.04 percentage points from the previous period, while the demand index is at 49.91%, also down 0.01 percentage points[3] - The industrial production recovery post-holiday is slower than last year, with the operating rates for full steel and semi-steel tires dropping significantly[20] - The average daily sales of passenger cars in the last week of September were 97,631 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4,864 units, but the retail market for passenger cars grew by 6.0% year-on-year in September[28] Investment and Real Estate - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 25.22% week-on-week, indicating pressure on growth due to high base effects[34] - The supply of land in 100 major cities increased by 23.63% week-on-week, suggesting ongoing investment activity despite the real estate market's challenges[34] Risks and Policy Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies remains a significant risk factor for the economy[4] - The effectiveness of policy measures may fall short of market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector[4]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The average daily signed area for second-hand houses is higher than the same period in 2020, while both new and second-hand house signed areas show significant year-on-year declines [1][18]. - The report highlights that the net rental yield and mortgage rate spread is a key observation point for total demand stabilization in both new and second-hand housing markets [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on reasonable valuation ranges for investment, suggesting that the adjusted price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.2 times, while the top five real estate companies have an average adjusted PB of about 0.7 times [4]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - The year-on-year decline in new housing signed area has expanded, with the current levels being lower than the past four years [8][10]. - The signed area for new houses in sample cities shows a significant year-on-year decrease of 40% [3]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The year-on-year signed area for second-hand houses has turned negative, with a decline of 49% compared to the previous year [3][13]. - The average viewing numbers for second-hand houses in 12 sample cities have decreased by 3.3% month-on-month, indicating a contraction in market activity [4][42]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to September 2025 shows a year-on-year decline of 9%, while the average transaction price has increased by 17% [21]. - The report notes a decrease in the proportion of properties with rising listing prices, indicating a tightening market [4][50]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the unsold inventory and the turnover cycle for unsold properties have increased compared to July, suggesting a growing backlog in the market [31][34]. - The liquidity outlook suggests a tightening in macro-level liquidity, which may impact market conditions moving forward [48].

Core Insights - The recent escalation of trade tensions is being compared to the situation in April, with analysts noting significant changes in both internal policies and investor sentiment, making direct comparisons inappropriate [1][2][3] - Analysts suggest that the likelihood of a TACO (Trade and Cooperation) deal is high, with historical patterns indicating that market downturns during such negotiations often present good buying opportunities [1][4] Group 1: Trade Tensions Analysis - Analysts from various firms highlight that the current trade friction is expected to lead to increased volatility in capital markets, but the impact may be less severe than in April due to improved market mechanisms and investor preparedness [2][5] - The upcoming APEC summit at the end of October is seen as a potential turning point in the G2 power dynamics, with expectations that the U.S. may use tariff threats to strengthen its negotiation position [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - Historical data shows that previous rounds of trade negotiations have led to sanctions and market reactions, with analysts suggesting that the current environment may provide opportunities for investment in sectors like rare earths, domestic demand, and self-sufficiency [2][4] - The focus on technology and industrial growth remains a key theme, with analysts recommending investments in sectors poised for growth, such as AI, semiconductor equipment, and traditional manufacturing [3][4]

Domestic Macro Policy - The central government is focusing on the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing long-term strategic adjustments to macroeconomic policies rather than short-term gains[4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new policy financial tool worth CNY 500 billion to support effective investment[5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is shifting its monetary policy focus from "implementation" to "execution," aiming for a moderately loose monetary policy[8] Infrastructure and Industry - Policies are being introduced to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and machinery, with an emphasis on capacity reduction[6] - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth of around 4% in value added over the next two years[7] Real Estate Policy - Cities like Guangzhou and Wuhan are implementing measures to optimize land use and stimulate demand, including interest subsidies for home loans[9] - The focus is on utilizing existing urban land effectively as China enters a "stock era" in urban development[9] Trade Relations - The U.S.-China trade conflict is escalating, with the U.S. imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1, 2025[12] - China has responded with export controls on rare earth technologies, affecting various critical sectors[11] Overseas Macro Policy - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown due to funding issues, impacting federal employees and public services[15] - The Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions remain uncertain, with discussions around potential rate cuts to address labor market concerns[16] Market Trends - In the first week of October, major overseas stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, experienced declines of approximately 2.43% and 2.53%, respectively[18] - Gold prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold reaching USD 3,986.20 per ounce, reflecting a 2.68% increase[19] Risk Factors - There is a risk of divergence in domestic and international monetary policies, with domestic policy execution potentially falling short of expectations[20]

报告导读： 如何才能稳住房价呢？或者说，当什么变量发生变化的时候，可以判断房价 被稳住了？本文重点就这一问题进行探讨。 今年中国经济总量继续保持稳健增长，尤其是上半年GDP增速明显高于5.3%，超出之前的市场预期。 我们认为中长期来看，中国经济仍然具有巨大的增长潜 力。不过短期经济结构分化的现象依然存在，尤其是供给偏强、需求偏弱，数量偏强、价格偏弱，内需还需要进一步提振。而内需端的一个重要拖累项是房地 产，尽管房地产投资、销售占经济比重已经不高，但房地产在居民存量财富配置中的份额仍然很高，而居民消费的资金来源一靠收入，二靠财富。如果房价出 现调整，势必会对总需求构成压制。 关于房地产的趋势和影响，其实海外其他经济体有大量的经验可以参考 ，我们在2022年就系统的梳理了海外房地产的经验。当然我们也要考虑到中国独特的 制度优势，不能完全照搬海外的经验。但海外的一些教训，我们是可以回避的。那么如何才能稳住房价呢？或者说，当什么变量发生变化的时候，可以判断房 价被稳住了？本文重点就这一问题进行探讨。 风险提示： 全球地缘风险；美国政策的不确定风险；监管政策变化风险。 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH ...

Global Market Overview - The global market experienced significant fluctuations due to Trump's statements regarding tariffs, leading to a notable pullback in the US stock market, particularly on Friday [1][2] - The TAMAMA Technology Index's P/E ratio reached 38, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio hit 52.9, indicating high valuation levels [1][12] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio stands at 39.09, close to the 40 high range, second only to the peak at the end of 1999 [1][12] - Major European markets are expected to face adjustments due to economic and political uncertainties, as well as high P/B ratios in several key indices [1][12] - The Nikkei 225 index showed volatility, with expectations of further adjustments due to tight monetary policy and economic pressures in Japan [1][12] US Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all declined, with weekly drops of 2.43%, 2.53%, and 2.73% respectively [2][12] - The S&P 500 sectors mostly declined, with utilities showing the largest increase of 1.42%, while energy saw the largest decrease of 3.98% [12][16] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks US-listed Chinese stocks, fell by 8.37%, indicating ongoing challenges for Chinese companies in the US market [18] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both fell by 3.13% and 3.11% respectively, while the Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index increased by 0.87% [2][24] - The Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 5.48%, reflecting the impact of external market pressures [24][39] - The best-performing sectors in Hong Kong included utilities, while non-essential consumer sectors faced the largest declines [28][39] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets such as Brazil's IBOVESPA, Mexico's MXX, and India's SENSEX30 are expected to experience adjustments due to the influence of US tariff policies and local economic issues [1][12] Key Economic Data - Japan's PPI year-on-year growth rate for September 2025 was 2.67%, slightly lower than the previous value of 2.68% [3][40] - The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October 2025 was reported at 61, an increase from 60.4 [42] - The Eurozone retail sales index showed a month-on-month growth of 0.1% for August 2025, up from a previous decline of 0.4% [46]