Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the A-share spring market is primarily driven by internal factors, with external factors acting as catalysts. Internal factors include proactive cooling measures and a sell-off in broad-based ETFs, while external factors encompass political actions by Trump, the change in the Federal Reserve chair, geopolitical tensions in Iran, and the release of new tools by Anthropic that triggered a decline in global tech stocks. Despite these disturbances, the fundamental industrial landscape in China remains intact, and the market sentiment has sufficiently released, suggesting a potential continuation of the spring market after the Spring Festival [3][4][36]. Internal Factors - The adjustment is mainly due to the emergence of speculative bubbles in certain thematic sectors, prompting regulatory bodies to implement "counter-cyclical adjustments" [4][12][47]. - A sell-off in broad-based ETFs has led to a temporary decline in market risk appetite [4][12][47]. External Factors - External disturbances include political actions by Trump that increase policy uncertainty, the change in the Federal Reserve chair affecting global funding pricing, rising geopolitical tensions in Iran, and concerns over AI technologies replacing traditional tools, which have collectively amplified adjustment pressures [4][12][47]. - The correlation between A-shares and global markets has weakened, indicating that external shocks may not have a long-term impact on A-shares [15][50]. Market Sentiment and Performance - Market sentiment has cooled significantly, as evidenced by a decrease in trading volume and a drop in the Shanghai Composite Index below its 20-day moving average, indicating that previous over-exuberance has been adequately addressed [20][55]. - The overall liquidity environment remains stable despite fluctuations in major asset classes, with no significant cross-asset capital flow observed [41]. Industry Configuration - Future industry allocation should focus on sectors with strong growth potential, particularly AI computing power, chemicals, and energy storage, which are expected to benefit from both domestic and international demand [5][39][59]. - The AI computing power sector is supported by significant capital expenditure increases from global tech giants, with Meta planning to raise its capital expenditure to $135 billion, a potential increase of 87% [24][60]. - The chemical sector is experiencing a valuation recovery driven by price increases in various sub-sectors, with major companies like BASF announcing price hikes for TDI products, boosting market sentiment [24][61]. Thematic Investment Opportunities - The upcoming national two sessions are expected to provide policy signals that could benefit sectors such as commercial aerospace and traditional Chinese medicine, which should be monitored for potential investment opportunities [30][65]. - The energy storage industry is poised for growth due to domestic pricing mechanisms and increasing overseas demand driven by AI computing needs, with many storage companies securing orders from North American data centers [28][63].

格隆汇2月8日｜港交所文件显示，彤程新材料集团股份有限公司向港交所提交上市申请书，独家保荐人 为国泰海通。 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Industry Trend Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to identify industry trends and allocate investments accordingly[5][8][10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses various indicators to assess industry trends, including market performance, valuation levels, and risk appetite. - It incorporates signals from different sub-models such as the Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model, TWO BETA Model, and Performance Trend Model. - The Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model waits for reversal signals in industries like liquor and real estate. - The TWO BETA Model recommends the technology sector and monitors opportunities in commercial aerospace. - The Performance Trend Model focuses on the computing power industry chain and oversold sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals. - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying industry trends and making allocation recommendations based on various market signals[5][8][10] Model Name: Timing System - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to distinguish the overall market environment and provide timing signals for investment decisions[5][8][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses the distance between the long-term moving average (120 days) and the short-term moving average (20 days) of the WIND All A Index. - The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6787 and the 120-day moving average at 6338, with a difference of 7.08%. - The model also considers the market trend line, which is currently around 6780 points, and the profitability effect, which is -1.44%. - The model suggests that the market is in a shock pattern and monitors short-term risk appetite changes. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides clear signals for market timing based on moving averages and other indicators[5][8][9] Model Backtesting Results - **Industry Trend Allocation Model**: - **PE Valuation Level**: 90th percentile, indicating a high level[8][10] - **PB Valuation Level**: 50th percentile, indicating a medium level[8][10] - **Position Recommendation**: 70% for absolute return products with WIND All A as the stock allocation subject[8][10] - **Timing System**: - **Moving Average Distance**: 7.08%, greater than the absolute value of 3%[5][8][9] - **Market Trend Line**: Around 6780 points[5][8][9] - **Profitability Effect**: -1.44%, indicating a temporary end to the upward trend[5][8][9] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor aims to identify potential reversal signals in distressed industries[5][8][10] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The model monitors industries like liquor and real estate for reversal signals. - It uses various market indicators to assess the likelihood of a reversal. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is useful for identifying potential investment opportunities in distressed industries[5][8][10] Factor Name: TWO BETA Model - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor aims to recommend sectors with high growth potential, such as technology[5][8][10] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The model focuses on the technology sector and monitors opportunities in commercial aerospace. - It uses market performance and other indicators to make recommendations. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is effective in identifying high-growth sectors and making investment recommendations[5][8][10] Factor Name: Performance Trend Model - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor aims to identify sectors with strong performance trends[5][8][10] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The model focuses on the computing power industry chain and oversold sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals. - It uses performance indicators to make recommendations. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is useful for identifying sectors with strong performance trends and making investment recommendations[5][8][10] Factor Backtesting Results - **Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model**: - **PE Valuation Level**: 90th percentile, indicating a high level[8][10] - **PB Valuation Level**: 50th percentile, indicating a medium level[8][10] - **TWO BETA Model**: - **PE Valuation Level**: 90th percentile, indicating a high level[8][10] - **PB Valuation Level**: 50th percentile, indicating a medium level[8][10] - **Performance Trend Model**: - **PE Valuation Level**: 90th percentile, indicating a high level[8][10] - **PB Valuation Level**: 50th percentile, indicating a medium level[8][10]

由此来看，近期海外一系列不确定性因素对风险资产的冲击更多是在叙事与情绪层面，而并非基本面或 政策路径出现实质性变化，尤其是支撑春季行情的国内核心逻辑——向好的基本面、政策"开门红" 与 充裕的流动性均未发生任何改变，这也是我们看好春季行情尚未结束的核心原因。 往后看，随着前期调整释放一定风险，近期全球叙事变化对市场情绪冲击最大的时刻或正在逐步过去。 一方面，从资产表现来看，周五（2月6日）比特币、美股、中概股、贵金属等一系列风险资产企稳反 弹，表明全球风险偏好已在逐步修复；另一方面，从我们跟踪的一系列情绪指标来看，当前A股与港股 已调整出一定的性价比，尤其是我们构建的港股情绪指数已经回落至去年12月19日底部的水平，并跌穿 滚动一年均值-1.5倍标准差，显示港股已到值得重点关注的区间。 从事件催化和日历效应的角度来看，后续也将逐步进入一个有利于权益资产演绎的良好环境。事件催化 角度，下周即将进入中美宏观数据的披露窗口，国内物价、社融等数据对于基本面改善的验证值得期 待，美国非农和CPI数据也有望对货币政策预期形成校准。此外，国内外AI应用等产业层面的密集催化 也有望在春节前后集中演绎。经历近期轮动加快、主线降 ...

Domestic Demand - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, with subway passenger volume up 8.8% compared to the same period in 2024, and domestic flight numbers averaging 14,500, a 1.6% increase year-on-year[2] - Movie ticket revenue has decreased by 37.2% year-on-year, averaging 62.245 million yuan per day[2] - Passenger car sales in January were 679,000 units, down 31.7% from the previous year[2] External Demand - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1993.2, showing a marginal decline but significantly higher than the previous year[2] - The China Export Container Freight Index averaged 1122.2, down 4.5% week-on-week and 16.4% year-on-year[2] - Port cargo throughput reached 281.597 million tons, a 25.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024[2] Production Sector - The operating rate of blast furnaces increased by 0.53 percentage points to 79.55%[2] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires decreased by 2.08 percentage points to 72.76%[2] - PTA production increased by 35,500 tons to 1.4639 million tons, with an operating rate of 76.29%[2] Price Trends - Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low, with pork prices down 1.12% week-on-week and vegetable prices down 1.46%[3][4] - Producer Price Index (PPI) shows significant increases in coking coal and coke prices, while non-ferrous metals have adjusted downwards due to a stronger dollar and seasonal demand decline[4] Monetary Policy - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations netted 756 billion yuan this week, with SHIBOR rates showing a seasonal decline[5] - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with the 30-year yield at 2.2510% and the 10-year yield at 1.8102%[5] International Context - U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 57.3, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.5%, the lowest in 13 months[5] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.6%, indicating a return to expansion, with new orders and production indices showing significant growth[7]

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 风格之辩——策略周聚焦 ❖ 调整或已到位，把握配置区间。 市场三大关注点：行业轮动渐近尾声，风险偏好抑制明显，春节前市场进入存 量博弈。经过短期快速的调整，当前机构普遍关注三大方向，具体来看：1、 春季躁动以来的行业轮动或接近尾声；2、市场风险偏好受到明显抑制；3、春 节前或将进入存量博弈。短期看市场情绪难有大幅提升，结构上轮动可能出现 最后一波加速，关注高股息的稳定红利品种，以及有业绩支撑的确定性板块。 我们在 26/2/3《调整或已到位，把握配置区间》指出，因外部突发事件产生的 风险偏好冲击或已到位。历史上由微观流动性引发的牛市中回撤通常呈现进二 退一。从投交情绪看，当前上证 4000 点左右的市场温度已经接近 25/11 的 3800 点，2/2 跌停公司 130 家，超去年 11/21 的 107 家，创近半年新低；杠杆资金 过去 5 个交易日净流出 582 亿元，超过 25/11 高点的 400 亿元。本轮 ETF 和 杠杆资金流出，以及贵金属价格的大幅波动，更类似微观流动性和突发事件引 发的风险偏好抑制，此类回撤往往在短时间内快速完成下跌，不必过分担 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing Iran-US talks in Oman are key, with the Friday negotiation being a crucial time - node. If the Iran - US negotiation concludes and geopolitical risks don't expand, an oversupply situation and geopolitical cooling suggest a downward trend for crude oil, and a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended. The chemical industry sector declined due to a cooling macro - environment and the crude oil price slump. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies for methanol, ethylene glycol, styrene, pure benzene, and rubber, which showed weak technical structures and trading volumes [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The Iran - US talks in Oman are underway with pre - meeting differences. Iran is willing to exchange its nuclear program for sanctions relief, and it depends on the US. Both prefer diplomatic solutions, and Friday's talk is crucial. Given an oversupply and geopolitical cooling, the price trend can refer to the continuous decline after the Iran nuclear deal in July 2015. A short - selling approach on rallies is maintained [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, oscillating today with short - term resistance at 485. The strategy is to hold the SC04P440 call option to trade the outcome of the Iran - US talks [4]. (2) Styrene - **Logic**: A sharp decline in crude oil prices, a cooling macro - environment, and a weakening of its own fundamentals led to a significant reduction in positions at high prices, indicating a short - term peak. With high profits, future supply is expected to increase, and downstream resistance to high prices is strong due to losses. Demand is expected to weaken as some enterprises start to reduce production during the Spring Festival [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, with positions reduced today and short - term resistance at 7850. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 7850 [8]. (3) Pure Benzene - **Logic**: Its speculative space is weaker than styrene, with passive upward movement due to styrene's profit expansion and potential positive impacts from the US tariff cut on South Korean pure benzene. Short - term upward continuity depends on market sentiment and large position reductions at high prices. In the medium term, overseas demand is weakening, while domestic imports are expected to remain high, posing import pressure [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, with positions reduced today and short - term resistance at 6260. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 6260 [11]. (4) Rubber - **Logic**: Qingdao's inventory is still high, and tire demand is expected to weaken as the vehicle market slows. After a passive price increase, Thai cup - lump rubber has strong production incentives, and supply is expected to increase after the March tapping season. There is a lack of upward drivers except for following the synthetic rubber price increase [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term oscillatory structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, with positions reduced today and short - term resistance at 16410. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 16410 [12]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Although the raw material butadiene is strong, the sharp decline of silver last Friday, a cooling macro - environment, and geopolitical cooling suggest a strong expectation of a decline in crude oil prices, resulting in a negative driving force [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term upward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, with positions reduced today and short - term resistance at 12450. Look for short - selling signals on rallies on the hourly cycle [17]. (6) PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation is strong before new capacity comes online in the third quarter, but the market has advanced trading in December. In the short term, there is a negative feedback from the textile polyester sector, and the cooling macro - environment and falling crude oil prices lead to a negative driving force [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term upward structure on the daily chart and a short - term oscillatory structure on the hourly chart, oscillating today within the 7050 - 7500 range. Adopt a wait - and - see approach on the hourly level [22]. (7) PTA - **Logic**: Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period due to weak demand, there is a negative feedback from downstream polyester production cuts. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the cooling macro - environment and falling crude oil prices lead to a negative driving force [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term upward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, oscillating today with short - term resistance at 5295. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 5255 [24]. (8) PP - **Logic**: Geopolitical cooling and a cooling macro - environment led to a decline in olefins. The demand for PP is in a seasonal weak period, and there is high supply pressure, resulting in a negative medium - term driving force. A large reduction in positions at high prices today indicates a market peak [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, oscillating today with the night session breaking the 6650 support level. The short - term structure turns bearish, with short - term resistance at 6825. Look for short - selling signals on rallies on the hourly cycle [26]. (9) Methanol - **Logic**: Weak demand due to low profits and expected production cuts in coastal MTO plants, high inventory pressure, geopolitical cooling, and a cooling macro - environment lead to a negative short - term driving force [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term and short - term downward structure, oscillating today with short - term resistance at 2285. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 2285 [29]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Weak domestic fundamentals, seasonal inventory accumulation pressure, high supply, and negative feedback from downstream polyester production cuts. The cooling macro - environment and geopolitical cooling in the past two days lead to a negative short - term driving force [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term and short - term downward structure, oscillating today with short - term resistance at 3810. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 3810 [31]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: Geopolitical cooling and a cooling macro - environment led to a decline in olefins. The demand for plastic is in a seasonal weak period, and there is high supply pressure, resulting in a negative medium - term driving force. A large reduction in positions at high prices today indicates a market peak [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term and short - term downward structure, oscillating today with short - term resistance at 6945. Look for short - selling signals on rallies on the hourly cycle [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The fundamentals of soda ash are characterized by high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, with an oversupply situation continuing. Although there is a slight inventory reduction due to pre - holiday restocking, the oversupply pressure and large inventory suggest that the premium of far - month contracts will gradually decline. Adopt a short - selling approach for the 05 contract [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, with increased positions and a long - negative candlestick today. The short - term resistance is in the 1215 - 1225 range. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 1225 [35]. (13) PVC - **Logic**: Supply remains high, and demand is weak with no expected reversal. However, a recent policy on power prices may provide short - term cost support [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term upward structure on the daily chart, and the short - term upward structure on the hourly chart may end. Breaking the 5000 support level with increased positions today indicates a potential end of the short - term upward trend. Adopt a wait - and - see approach on the hourly cycle [36].

Group 1 - The recent global risk asset adjustment is primarily driven by narrative and sentiment rather than fundamental or policy changes, indicating a rebalancing of global assets and internal styles [10][25][32] - The core logic supporting the spring market remains unchanged, with positive fundamentals, favorable policies, and ample liquidity still in place [3][25][28] - The upcoming macro data releases from China and the US are expected to validate improvements in fundamentals, which could enhance market sentiment [7][28] Group 2 - The post-Spring Festival market is anticipated to favor technology manufacturing, resource products, and infrastructure chains, driven by an increase in risk appetite [11][32] - Key sectors to focus on include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), high-end manufacturing (such as renewable energy and innovative pharmaceuticals), and price recovery chains (including chemicals, building materials, and steel) [14][35][38] - The AI application sector is expected to see concentrated catalysts, with its current crowding level being reasonable, making it a focal point for investment [17][38]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the petrochemical industry, but it provides insights into price trends and market dynamics that could influence investment decisions. Core Insights - The report highlights a cooling in the aromatics market and a downward shift in the price focus of the polyester industry chain [1] - Brent crude oil's weekly average price was $67.33 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 0.60% [2] - Domestic and international refining project price differentials have shown slight increases, with domestic projects at ¥2515.90 per ton (+0.37%) and international projects at ¥1104.12 per ton (+0.63%) [3] Refining Sector Summary - The report discusses geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, including U.S.-Iran relations and supply recovery from Kazakhstan and the U.S. [2] - Brent and WTI crude prices as of February 6, 2026, were $68.05 and $63.55 per barrel, respectively, showing declines from the previous week [15] - Domestic refined oil prices showed slight fluctuations, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging ¥6270.57, ¥7588.29, and ¥5140.28 per ton, respectively [15] Chemical Sector Summary - The chemical sector experienced limited support from cost factors, leading to fluctuating prices for various chemical products [2] - Polyethylene prices showed slight fluctuations, with LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE averaging ¥9300.00, ¥6885.29, and ¥7600.00 per ton, respectively [54] - The report notes that the price of pure benzene increased slightly, with an average of ¥6150.00 per ton, reflecting a price differential of ¥2727.98 per ton [54] Polyester & Nylon Sector Summary - The polyester industry chain saw a price decline, with upstream costs weakening significantly [2] - The report indicates that the market for polyester filament yarn is experiencing a notable decrease in operating rates, leading to reduced demand [2] - Nylon filament prices have seen slight increases, but the price differential remains narrow [2] Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report provides stock performance data for six major refining companies, with notable weekly changes including Hengli Petrochemical (-5.29%) and Hengyi Petrochemical (+3.28%) [2] - Over the past month, stock performance varied significantly, with Rongsheng Petrochemical showing a +25.06% increase [2]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华金证券 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华金证券 春节前A 股短期走势对节后行情可能有一定影响。2010 年以来的16 年中，有9次春节前5 个交易日内上 证综指走强（弱）而节后1 个交易日上证综指下跌（上涨）；有12 次节前5 个交易日内上证综指涨跌与 节后5 个交易日内涨跌同向。 春季行情未完，春节期间风险可能有限，可持股过节。（1）今年春节期间经济和盈利预期可能改善。 一是春节出行、消费数据可能偏好。二是今年春节地产销售可能有所回暖：首先，低基数效应下今年春 节期间地产销售同比增速可能有所回升；其次，各地刺激地产销售的政策预期较强，春节假期期间地产 销售可能延续回暖趋势。（2）春节期间流动性可能维持宽松。一是春节期间宏观流动性可能维持宽 松：首先，海外方面，2 月11 日美国1 月CPI 数据将公布，2 月17 日美国零售数据将披露，预计美元指 数可能继续维持低位震荡，海外对国内流动性宽松的掣肘有限；其次，国内方面，春节前流动性季节性 紧张下央行可能加大净投放力度。二是春节前 ...