【冠通研究】 盘面筑底 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 10 日 【策略分析】 今日低开低走，日内冲高回落。市场情绪观望为主，上游工厂报价下滑为主。 山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1620-1660 元/吨。印 度 NFL9 月 2 日尿素进口标购最终确认 252.26 万吨成交。基本面来看，供应端日 产高位，库存高企，市场货源充沛，故该幅度的减产并未改变宽松格局。需求端， 内需依然表现低迷，复合肥工厂上期开工大幅下滑，本周预计逐渐复产，厂内成 品库存继续去化，成品肥开始向终端转移，需求前置的缘故，后续集中备肥可能 性较低，成品库存同比偏高下，对尿素的需求增量或有限。尿素厂内库存继续累 库，较上周增加 3.77 万吨，环比增加 3.44%。综合来看，下游需求端观望情绪浓 厚，尿素库存高企且继续攀升，行情偏弱运行为主，价格超跌，盘面筑底。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1681 元/吨低开低走，日内冲高回落，最终 收于 1669 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅-1.01%，持仓量 283349 手（+15169 手）。 主力合约前二十名主。力持仓席位来看，多头+7200 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - term: Before the export window period, conduct positive spread trading on UR01 - 05 to capture fluctuations; after the export window period, conduct reverse spread trading on UR01 - 05 at high prices [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market sees manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders, with light trading volume and weak domestic demand. Some regions are starting to use autumn fertilizers in agriculture, and industrial demand mainly comes from the rigid procurement of compound fertilizers and melamine. Industrial demand was relatively weak due to the impact of the parade on panel factories and compound fertilizer factories, but the operating rate will rise. Urea production remains at a high level, and in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. Coal - based urea has decent profits, and cost - side support is average. The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, and the export in August and September is expected to be good, which may lead to a decline in urea inventory. Focus on the resonance period of increased export speed and improved domestic demand [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Includes charts of Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][15] 2. Urea Production - Includes charts of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [17][22] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Includes charts of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [25][26][34] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Includes charts of urea small - particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR price in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB price in China, urea large - particle CFR price in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB price minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR price in Southeast Asia and China's FOB price, urea export profit, and disk export profit [31][33][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Includes charts of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [50][51][52] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes charts of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [55][56][58]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Yangtze River Futures Urea Weekly Report: Supply and Demand Loose, Pay Attention to Marginal Improvement [1] - Report date: September 8, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Ying, Practice No.: F03105021, Investment Consultation No.: Z0021335 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Recently, the urea operating rate has decreased, and the daily output has dropped to 18 - 190,000 tons. Agricultural fertilizer demand is scattered, compound fertilizer finished product pick - up is poor, and the slow fertilizer preparation progress restrains the start - up. The continuous accumulation of urea enterprise inventory, the high port inventory, and the increase in the number of warehouse receipts reflect that the urea spot market has a loose supply - demand relationship. It is expected that the compound fertilizer demand will be postponed, waiting for the marginal improvement of supply and demand. Pay attention to the support at the phased price bottom, and focus on the support of 1650 - 1700 for the 01 contract [4] Group 4: Market Changes - Price: Affected by the downward adjustment of the urea spot quotation and poor sales, the support for the market expectation on the futures market weakened, and the urea price was strong first and then weak. On September 5, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1,713 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decline of 1.89%, and the lowest during the period was 1,706 yuan/ton. The daily average price of the urea spot in the Henan market was 1,699 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decline of 1.62% [4][7] - Basis: On September 5, the main basis in the Henan market was - 14 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis operating range was (- 35) - (- 3) yuan/ton [4][10] - Spread: On September 5, the 9 - 1 spread was - 51 yuan/ton, and the weekly operating range was (- 73) - (- 50) yuan/ton [4][10] Group 5: Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 79.13%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week, among which the operating load rate of gas - head enterprises was 71.15%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average urea output was 182,700 tons. After the reduction or short - stop of some devices in Henan, Hebei and other places and then resumed production, and the smooth production after the commissioning of some devices in Shandong, Anhui, Xinjiang and other places, the overall operating rate decreased, and the urea supply decreased month - on - month [4][12] Cost - The trading in the anthracite market cooled down, and the price was mainly stable. As of September 4, the tax - included price of anthracite washed small lumps with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, and the tax - included price of anthracite washed lumps with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi was 760 - 800 yuan/ton, both of which were flat compared with the closing price of the previous week [4][16] Demand - Agricultural demand: National agricultural demand was scattered at this stage. The average advance receipt of major urea production enterprises was 3.4 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 94.8%. Agricultural demand moderately followed up, the compound fertilizer operation was stable, and there was a bargain - hunting purchase of urea. The downstream operation of melamine and other products was generally stable, and the production and sales were stable [4][20] - Industrial demand: The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 33.08%, a decrease of 6.14 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 841,200 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week. During the domestic compound fertilizer sales stage, the operation of most fertilizer enterprises was relatively stable. Individual fertilizer enterprises had short - stop maintenance and would gradually resume production in the near future. It is expected that the compound fertilizer capacity operation rate may increase next week. The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 55.11%, a decrease of 1.93 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 27,160 tons [4][24][27] Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 1.094 million tons, an increase of 91,000 tons from the previous week, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. Urea port inventory was 797,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week, and the port inventory also remained at a high level. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 8,299, totaling 165,980 tons, an increase of 1,826 from the previous week, totaling 36,520 tons [4][31] Group 6: Key Points to Follow - Compound fertilizer start - up situation, urea device reduction and maintenance situation, export policy, and coal price fluctuations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The completion of the urea granulation tower at the PetroChina Tashi Chemical Green Low-Carbon Project marks a significant milestone in the project's construction, entering the peak installation phase and nearing the completion of civil works [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project is located in the Xinjiang Korla Shakush Chemical Industry Park and aims for near-zero carbon dioxide emissions through the use of advanced ammonia synthesis technology based on ethylene-rich tail gas [1] - The urea granulation tower, a core structure of the urea production facility, has a design height of 122.5 meters and a diameter of 24 meters, featuring a reinforced concrete cylindrical structure [1] Group 2: Construction Details - The construction of the granulation tower involves an estimated total concrete pouring volume exceeding 7,000 cubic meters and the use of over 1,600 tons of rebar [1] - The project team has successfully tackled the challenge of using C45 high-strength concrete in the construction of the granulation tower, a first in the country, along with the associated mix ratio testing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The achievement of 323 days of continuous operation by the fertilizer production unit of Fudao Company marks a significant milestone in the chemical production industry, showcasing the company's ability to overcome challenges associated with aging equipment and extreme weather conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Operational Achievement - Fudao Company's fertilizer unit has set a new record of 323 days of continuous operation, surpassing its previous record since its commissioning in 1996 [1]. - Achieving long-term operation is particularly challenging for older units, especially in regions with extreme weather conditions such as high temperatures and humidity [1]. Group 2: Technical Challenges and Solutions - Initial challenges included fluctuations in the efficiency of the gas turbine due to significant temperature variations, which were addressed through monitoring and optimization of the air intake system [1]. - The company implemented additional cooling measures during extreme weather, such as installing a spray water system and optimizing the condensate return path to maintain operational efficiency [2]. Group 3: Management Innovations - Fudao Company has restructured its management model to focus on detailed management of key equipment, utilizing intelligent monitoring systems and preventive maintenance platforms to shift from passive repairs to proactive interventions [2]. - Each potential hazard is assigned a dedicated file, responsible person, and rectification timeline, enhancing the efficiency of issue resolution [2]. Group 4: Importance to Agriculture - The stability of fertilizer production is crucial for ensuring agricultural input supply, which directly impacts food security [2]. - Fudao Company aims to continue advancing technological innovation and management optimization to further enhance operational performance and contribute to national agricultural production [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, suggesting that leading companies with significant scale and cost advantages will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [4][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the TDI production facility by Mitsui and the successful commissioning of a new ethylene plant by Jilin Petrochemical, indicating positive developments in the industry [3][4]. - It emphasizes the strong competitive position of domestic tire manufacturers and suggests that rare growth stocks in this sector are worth attention [4]. - The report notes a potential recovery in consumer electronics, recommending upstream material companies as beneficiaries of this trend [4]. - It identifies several resilient cyclical industries, such as phosphate and fluorine chemicals, which are expected to see improved market conditions due to supply constraints and rising demand [5][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.35%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 0.15%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index decreased by 1.36% [14][17]. - The top-performing sub-industries included organic silicon (3.59%), modified plastics (2.46%), and tires (2.22%), while the worst performers were other plastic products (-4.72%) and compound fertilizers (-3.04%) [17][18]. Industry Dynamics - Mitsui's TDI plant is set to resume production after a chlorine leak incident, with expectations of stable product supply [3]. - Jilin Petrochemical's new ethylene plant has successfully started operations, increasing its total ethylene capacity to 1.9 million tons per year [3]. Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are noted for their strong competitive edge, with recommendations to focus on companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit from increased demand in the panel supply chain [4]. - **Cyclical Industries**: Phosphate and fluorine chemical sectors are highlighted for their resilience, with recommendations for companies like Yuntianhua and Juhua [5][8]. - **Leading Companies**: The report suggests that leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [8].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the market trends and strategic outlook for the urea industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-August 2025, the market price for urea (medium and small granules) is reported at 1766.2 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.47% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.27% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years occurred in mid-August 2021, reaching 2727.9 yuan per ton [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the market trends and investment potential in the Chinese compound fertilizer industry from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-August 2025, the market price for compound fertilizers (potassium sulfate compound fertilizer with a nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium content of 45%) is 3180 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.51% and remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] - The highest recorded price in the last five years for the same period was in mid-August 2022, reaching 3910 yuan per ton [1] Historical Data - A statistical chart detailing the price fluctuations of compound fertilizers from 2019 to mid-August 2025 is referenced, indicating significant price movements over the years [1]

Group 1: Company Performance and Market Conditions - The company experienced a significant decline in performance in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, attributed to cyclical and structural adjustments in the industry [2][3] - The company reported that the sales revenue and profit from automotive urea decreased due to multiple factors, including logistics industry conditions and raw material price fluctuations [4][5] - The company is currently in a low point in the fertilizer market and is considering measures to optimize product structure and enhance market competitiveness [3][4] Group 2: Risk Management and Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively managing risks associated with urea price fluctuations by controlling production costs and optimizing operational efficiency [2][3] - The management is exploring effective market value management measures, including mergers and acquisitions, to enhance company value [3][4] - The company is committed to maintaining a prudent approach to capital management, ensuring funds are utilized effectively while safeguarding operational needs [5][6] Group 3: Research and Development Efforts - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, with funding growing by 10%, 59%, and 93% from 2022 to 2024 [7][8] - New product developments include green and efficient fertilizers, advanced polymer materials, and technologies aimed at energy conservation and emission reduction [7][8] - The company aims to strengthen its core competitiveness through continuous innovation and development of new products [8] Group 4: Investor Relations and Communication - The company emphasizes the importance of investor relations and plans to enhance communication with institutional and individual investors [5][6] - Suggestions from investors regarding capital market strategies and expectations management are being taken seriously for future implementation [8][9] - The company is committed to transparent information disclosure and maintaining open channels for investor communication [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint - In August, the futures price of urea maintained a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic supply declined, and demand entered the off - season. The overall contradiction was not prominent, and demand was mainly supported by exports. The short - term fundamentals did not change significantly, and additional bullish factors were needed for the price to break out of the range. Currently, the market is characterized by low valuation and weak drivers, and the price is expected to remain range - bound. It is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In August, the futures price of urea maintained a narrow - range oscillation. Domestic supply decreased with the monthly output of 5.93 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline but a year - on - year increase of over 11%. The daily output dropped to around 182,000 tons, reducing supply pressure. Exports continued to advance, and port inventories increased significantly, becoming the main demand support. The compound fertilizer market was weak, with the start - up rate peaking and then declining. Domestic agricultural demand entered the off - season [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal - based production profits were at a low level, and cost support would gradually strengthen. The basis and the 1 - 5 spread showed slight signs of stabilization. Export profits were high, and domestic prices were relatively undervalued. The price ratio with related varieties was at a medium - low level, indicating that the valuation of urea was not high. In August, port inventories increased by over 50,000 tons, and enterprise inventories increased by over 200,000 tons, with the current inventory at 1.095 million tons, which was at a high level compared to the same period [12]. - **Market Logic**: The market was characterized by low valuation and weak drivers, lacking more positive factors. The price was expected to remain range - bound, with limited upside and downside space [12]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Data**: For the 09 contract, the price at the end of the month was 1,679, a decrease of 35 from the beginning of the month; for the 01 contract, it was 1,746, an increase of 10; for the 05 contract, it was 1,791, an increase of 16. The basis in Shandong and Henan decreased, and the 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads also changed [13]. - **Charts**: There are charts showing the 01 basis seasonality, Shandong urea spot market price, urea 1 - 5 spread, and urea term structure [22][24]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Enterprise profits were at a low level compared to the same period. The fixed - bed, water - coal - slurry, and gas - based production profits are presented in relevant charts [30]. - **Inventory**: In August, enterprise inventories increased by over 200,000 tons to 1.095 million tons, and port inventories increased by over 50,000 tons. There are charts showing urea enterprise inventories, port inventories, and warehouse receipts [12][31]. 4. Supply Side - **Urea Capacity**: There are plans for new urea production capacity from multiple enterprises in 2024 - 2025, such as Anhui Quansheng Chemical, Henan Jinkai Yanhua, etc. [38]. - **Urea Start - up**: The start - up rate declined, reducing supply pressure. There were many device overhauls in August and September, including both planned and unplanned overhauls due to various reasons such as faults, routine maintenance, and policies [40][44]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption**: The report presents charts on monthly consumption and downstream demand proportion [50]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The start - up rate of compound fertilizer was weak and began to decline after peaking. The production profit and the price ratio between urea and compound fertilizer are shown in relevant charts [52][53]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: The price ratios between urea and synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate are presented in charts [56]. - **Melamine**: The start - up rate, profit, and export volume of melamine are shown in relevant charts [58][61]. - **Terminal Demand**: The export volume of plywood, housing construction data (such as new construction area, completion area, and sales area), and external market prices are presented in charts. Urea exports had high profits, and there are charts on export volume, export regions, and export profit [66][77]. 6. Option - Related - **Urea Options**: There are charts showing the open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, volatility, and the relationship with the futures price of urea options [90][98]. 7. Industry Structure Diagram - **Urea Industry Chain**: There are charts showing the urea industry chain, research framework analysis mind - map, and industry chain characteristics. The report also provides an overview of the seasonal fertilizer demand of domestic and international crops [101][106][109].