Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The average daily signed area for second-hand houses is higher than the same period in 2020, while both new and second-hand house signed areas show significant year-on-year declines [1][18]. - The report highlights that the net rental yield and mortgage rate spread is a key observation point for total demand stabilization in both new and second-hand housing markets [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on reasonable valuation ranges for investment, suggesting that the adjusted price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.2 times, while the top five real estate companies have an average adjusted PB of about 0.7 times [4]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - The year-on-year decline in new housing signed area has expanded, with the current levels being lower than the past four years [8][10]. - The signed area for new houses in sample cities shows a significant year-on-year decrease of 40% [3]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The year-on-year signed area for second-hand houses has turned negative, with a decline of 49% compared to the previous year [3][13]. - The average viewing numbers for second-hand houses in 12 sample cities have decreased by 3.3% month-on-month, indicating a contraction in market activity [4][42]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to September 2025 shows a year-on-year decline of 9%, while the average transaction price has increased by 17% [21]. - The report notes a decrease in the proportion of properties with rising listing prices, indicating a tightening market [4][50]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the unsold inventory and the turnover cycle for unsold properties have increased compared to July, suggesting a growing backlog in the market [31][34]. - The liquidity outlook suggests a tightening in macro-level liquidity, which may impact market conditions moving forward [48].

Core Insights - The recent escalation of trade tensions is being compared to the situation in April, with analysts noting significant changes in both internal policies and investor sentiment, making direct comparisons inappropriate [1][2][3] - Analysts suggest that the likelihood of a TACO (Trade and Cooperation) deal is high, with historical patterns indicating that market downturns during such negotiations often present good buying opportunities [1][4] Group 1: Trade Tensions Analysis - Analysts from various firms highlight that the current trade friction is expected to lead to increased volatility in capital markets, but the impact may be less severe than in April due to improved market mechanisms and investor preparedness [2][5] - The upcoming APEC summit at the end of October is seen as a potential turning point in the G2 power dynamics, with expectations that the U.S. may use tariff threats to strengthen its negotiation position [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - Historical data shows that previous rounds of trade negotiations have led to sanctions and market reactions, with analysts suggesting that the current environment may provide opportunities for investment in sectors like rare earths, domestic demand, and self-sufficiency [2][4] - The focus on technology and industrial growth remains a key theme, with analysts recommending investments in sectors poised for growth, such as AI, semiconductor equipment, and traditional manufacturing [3][4]

Domestic Macro Policy - The central government is focusing on the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing long-term strategic adjustments to macroeconomic policies rather than short-term gains[4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new policy financial tool worth CNY 500 billion to support effective investment[5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is shifting its monetary policy focus from "implementation" to "execution," aiming for a moderately loose monetary policy[8] Infrastructure and Industry - Policies are being introduced to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and machinery, with an emphasis on capacity reduction[6] - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth of around 4% in value added over the next two years[7] Real Estate Policy - Cities like Guangzhou and Wuhan are implementing measures to optimize land use and stimulate demand, including interest subsidies for home loans[9] - The focus is on utilizing existing urban land effectively as China enters a "stock era" in urban development[9] Trade Relations - The U.S.-China trade conflict is escalating, with the U.S. imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1, 2025[12] - China has responded with export controls on rare earth technologies, affecting various critical sectors[11] Overseas Macro Policy - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown due to funding issues, impacting federal employees and public services[15] - The Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions remain uncertain, with discussions around potential rate cuts to address labor market concerns[16] Market Trends - In the first week of October, major overseas stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, experienced declines of approximately 2.43% and 2.53%, respectively[18] - Gold prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold reaching USD 3,986.20 per ounce, reflecting a 2.68% increase[19] Risk Factors - There is a risk of divergence in domestic and international monetary policies, with domestic policy execution potentially falling short of expectations[20]

报告导读： 如何才能稳住房价呢？或者说，当什么变量发生变化的时候，可以判断房价 被稳住了？本文重点就这一问题进行探讨。 今年中国经济总量继续保持稳健增长，尤其是上半年GDP增速明显高于5.3%，超出之前的市场预期。 我们认为中长期来看，中国经济仍然具有巨大的增长潜 力。不过短期经济结构分化的现象依然存在，尤其是供给偏强、需求偏弱，数量偏强、价格偏弱，内需还需要进一步提振。而内需端的一个重要拖累项是房地 产，尽管房地产投资、销售占经济比重已经不高，但房地产在居民存量财富配置中的份额仍然很高，而居民消费的资金来源一靠收入，二靠财富。如果房价出 现调整，势必会对总需求构成压制。 关于房地产的趋势和影响，其实海外其他经济体有大量的经验可以参考 ，我们在2022年就系统的梳理了海外房地产的经验。当然我们也要考虑到中国独特的 制度优势，不能完全照搬海外的经验。但海外的一些教训，我们是可以回避的。那么如何才能稳住房价呢？或者说，当什么变量发生变化的时候，可以判断房 价被稳住了？本文重点就这一问题进行探讨。 风险提示： 全球地缘风险；美国政策的不确定风险；监管政策变化风险。 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH ...

Global Market Overview - The global market experienced significant fluctuations due to Trump's statements regarding tariffs, leading to a notable pullback in the US stock market, particularly on Friday [1][2] - The TAMAMA Technology Index's P/E ratio reached 38, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio hit 52.9, indicating high valuation levels [1][12] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio stands at 39.09, close to the 40 high range, second only to the peak at the end of 1999 [1][12] - Major European markets are expected to face adjustments due to economic and political uncertainties, as well as high P/B ratios in several key indices [1][12] - The Nikkei 225 index showed volatility, with expectations of further adjustments due to tight monetary policy and economic pressures in Japan [1][12] US Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all declined, with weekly drops of 2.43%, 2.53%, and 2.73% respectively [2][12] - The S&P 500 sectors mostly declined, with utilities showing the largest increase of 1.42%, while energy saw the largest decrease of 3.98% [12][16] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks US-listed Chinese stocks, fell by 8.37%, indicating ongoing challenges for Chinese companies in the US market [18] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both fell by 3.13% and 3.11% respectively, while the Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index increased by 0.87% [2][24] - The Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 5.48%, reflecting the impact of external market pressures [24][39] - The best-performing sectors in Hong Kong included utilities, while non-essential consumer sectors faced the largest declines [28][39] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets such as Brazil's IBOVESPA, Mexico's MXX, and India's SENSEX30 are expected to experience adjustments due to the influence of US tariff policies and local economic issues [1][12] Key Economic Data - Japan's PPI year-on-year growth rate for September 2025 was 2.67%, slightly lower than the previous value of 2.68% [3][40] - The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October 2025 was reported at 61, an increase from 60.4 [42] - The Eurozone retail sales index showed a month-on-month growth of 0.1% for August 2025, up from a previous decline of 0.4% [46]

Group 1: Real Estate Market Repositioning - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for a "repositioning" of the real estate market in China, transitioning from being an economic pillar to a dual role as a "foundation for livelihood" and an "innovation carrier" [1] - The report highlights that the traditional model of "high leverage, high debt, high turnover" is no longer sustainable, necessitating a new development model for real estate [1] - The central government aims to alleviate housing difficulties for new citizens and youth by promoting high-quality housing construction and urban village renovations [1] Group 2: Economic Dependency on Real Estate - Experts argue that China must gradually reduce its reliance on real estate for economic growth, as the current development stage cannot support significant economic boosts from the real estate sector [2] - There is a persistent imbalance between new housing supply and urban population growth, indicating a shift towards a secondary market dominated by second-hand housing transactions [2] - The changing housing consumption concept is reflected in the growing rental market and increasing proportion of existing home sales [2] Group 3: Structural Differentiation in Real Estate - The real estate market in China shows structural differentiation, with strong demand in urban areas experiencing population inflow, while areas with population outflow face contraction [3] - The need for "precise policies" is emphasized, advocating for supply driven by demand and the creation of demand through supply [3] - The call for a standardized rental market and extending housing security to a broader range of workers is highlighted [3] Group 4: Office Market Dynamics - The office market is currently characterized by oversupply, particularly in major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen, leading to a downward trend in rental prices [4] - The demand for office space is showing signs of gradual recovery, but the disparity among different sectors remains significant [4] - Proposed strategies include controlling new supply, enhancing old building renovation mechanisms, and improving rental monitoring to boost market confidence [4]

Group 1 - Global risk assets experienced a broad decline, with significant drops in both US and Chinese indices, particularly in technology stocks [2][5][6] - The decline in asset prices is attributed to overseas risk events, including the potential impact of the US government shutdown and renewed trade tensions between the US and China [2][5][6] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, has increased but remains below extreme levels, indicating that the market is not in a state of panic [6][10][12] Group 2 - Since April, asset prices have gradually recovered from a period of excessive pessimism, aided by positive developments such as fiscal expansion in the US and capital expenditures from tech giants [3][7][12] - The report highlights two potential paths for the US economy: one indicating a late-stage stagflation in the service sector and another showing early recovery in manufacturing [12][17] - The upcoming earnings season for US technology companies is crucial to observe whether expectations will align with reality [12][17] Group 3 - The report suggests that while there is no current panic in the market, the higher valuation levels compared to April indicate a lack of "greed" [17] - For Chinese assets, the previous gains were largely driven by alignment with overseas technology trends, which may pose vulnerabilities in the short term [17] - The report recommends focusing on domestic policies and sectors that may benefit from a recovery in domestic demand, such as food and beverage, aviation, and real estate [17]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 三季度经济金融"成绩单"前瞻 证券研究报告 宏观数据预测专题 三季度经济复苏的成色与瓶颈如何？四季度经济如何演绎？本文聚焦于 此。 工业增加值：预计 9 月当月同比为 5.4% 9 月生产 PMI 较前值上升 1.1pct 至 51.9%，升至近 6 个月高点；采购量指数 升至 51.6%，企业加快原材料采购，显示生产积极性和经济景气度边际回升， 故而我们预计今年 9 月工增环比或为正，9 月工业增加值同比增速为 5.4%。 社零：预计 9 月当月同比为 3.2% （1）9 月服务业 PMI 较上月回落 0.4pct 至 50.1%，餐饮、房地产等行业商 务活动指数低于临界点；（2）9 月地产销售有所好转，但仍低于历史同期， 预计地产后周期消费边际改善，但难以为 9 月社零增速提供较大支撑；（3） 考虑到"以旧换新"政策补贴效应下降，预计其对社零的支撑或有所减弱。 固定资产投资：预计 9 月累计同比 0.2% 基建方面，9 月基建投资累计同比有所回落。（1）9 月建筑业 PMI 为 49.3%， 比上月上升 0.2pct，但仍处于收缩区间；（2）9 月石油沥青装置开工率明 显回升， ...

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with a notable increase in the number of second-hand homes being sold across the country, indicating a shift in market dynamics and potential social transformation [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of September 2025, the national second-hand housing market has seen a continuous decline for 41 months, with major cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai experiencing decreases of 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.48% respectively [3]. - The average daily transaction volume in eight key cities during the recent holiday period dropped by 38% compared to the previous year, with over 7.3 million second-hand homes listed for sale nationwide [3][5]. - The listing volume in cities like Wuhan, Beijing, and Shanghai has reached historical highs, with increases of 322% in Nanjing [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing the Market - A significant decline in population growth has reduced the motivation to buy homes, with projections indicating a decrease of nearly 30 million potential homebuyers in the next decade [5]. - Economic pressures have led to increased mortgage delinquency rates, with reports indicating a rise to 1.7%, causing many homeowners to sell at lower prices to avoid default [5][7]. - There is a widening gap between high-quality properties in prime locations and ordinary homes, with luxury properties still performing well while many suburban developments face high vacancy rates [7][9]. Group 3: Consequences of the Selling Wave - A report from Tsinghua University suggests that a 10% drop in housing prices could result in a loss of 600,000 yuan in family wealth, as many households have a significant portion of their assets tied up in real estate [9][10]. - The decline in property values is likely to suppress consumer spending, as individuals become more cautious with their finances [10][12]. - Local governments reliant on land sales for revenue may face budget constraints, impacting public services and potentially driving young people to seek opportunities elsewhere [12][14]. Group 4: Government Response - Over 80 cities have implemented various measures to stimulate the housing market, including lowering down payments, interest rates, and offering subsidies [14]. - Despite these efforts, the effectiveness has been limited, as many young people prefer renting over being burdened by mortgages [14][16]. Group 5: Future Strategies - Homebuyers are advised to make decisions based on personal needs and financial capabilities rather than market trends, focusing on location and amenities for better value retention [16]. - Diversifying asset allocation beyond real estate is recommended, as the notion of guaranteed profits from property investments has changed [17][19].

Core Insights - The future of the real estate market in China is uncertain, with discussions around whether property values will rise or fall by 2030, influenced by various factors such as population changes and economic conditions [1][3] Group 1: Population Changes - Population dynamics are fundamental to housing demand, with a projected birth rate of 7.2‰ and a natural population growth rate of -1.3‰ by 2025, indicating a shift towards an aging society [1][3] - By 2030, over 20% of the population will be aged 65 and above, impacting housing demand, particularly for improved and investment properties [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The real estate market is transitioning from a growth phase to a stock phase, with new housing supply decreasing and second-hand transactions becoming mainstream [3] - The concept that "houses are for living, not for speculation" is gaining traction, suggesting that future price trends will align more closely with income growth [3] Group 3: City Differentiation - There will be significant differentiation among cities, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities likely to see stable prices, while third and fourth-tier cities may experience substantial price declines, potentially up to 30% [3][4] Group 4: Location and Quality - Location will increasingly dictate property value, with core areas maintaining value due to scarcity and convenience, while peripheral areas face downward pressure [4] - Housing quality will become a key determinant of value, with over 65% of buyers willing to pay more for high-quality property services, a 15 percentage point increase since 2020 [6] Group 5: Financial Policies - Housing finance policies are crucial, with mortgage rates declining to an average of 3.85% in September 2025, nearly 1 percentage point lower than in 2020, which may stabilize property prices [6] Group 6: Price Predictions - In first-tier and strong second-tier cities, a property currently valued at 1.2 million may appreciate to 1.4-1.6 million by 2030, reflecting a 15-30% increase [6][7] - In general areas of second-tier cities and some developing third-tier cities, values may stabilize around 1.1-1.3 million, with fluctuations not exceeding 10% [7] - In struggling third and fourth-tier cities, values could drop to 800,000-1 million, indicating a potential 20-30% depreciation [7] Group 7: Market Adaptation Strategies - Buyers should shift their investment mindset to prioritize living needs over speculative gains, focusing on quality and location when purchasing properties [9] - Diversifying asset allocation beyond real estate is recommended to mitigate risks and enhance overall asset resilience [9] - A rational approach to price fluctuations is essential, with decisions based on personal needs and long-term planning rather than short-term market trends [9]