Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the global stock market will continue its bull market into 2026, with a price return of 13% and a total return of 15% including dividends, driven primarily by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [1][2] - The current market is defined as being in the "optimistic" phase of the cycle, characterized by increased investor confidence and potential upward risks to core expectations [2][3] - The report indicates that the trend of non-U.S. markets outperforming U.S. markets will continue, with European, Chinese, and Asian markets showing total returns nearly double that of the U.S. market [1][5] Group 2: Earnings Growth and Valuation - Goldman Sachs expects all regions to achieve positive earnings growth in 2026, with the S&P 500 projected to grow earnings by 12%, STOXX 600 by 5%, Japan's TOPIX by 9%, and Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) by 16% [3] - The report highlights that the high valuations observed in the U.S. market, with a forward P/E ratio of 22.3, will lead to returns being more reliant on fundamental earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3] Group 3: Sector and Market Diversification - The bull market is broadening, with a notable shift away from the dominance of U.S. tech stocks, as the contribution of the top seven tech giants to S&P 500 earnings is expected to decrease from 50% in 2025 to 46% in 2026 [6] - Traditional value sectors such as financials and materials are transitioning from "value traps" to "value creators," benefiting from increased tech capital expenditures [5][6] Group 4: AI Impact and Sector Expansion - The AI dividend is expected to expand beyond core tech giants to a wider range of industries and companies that can leverage AI to enhance profitability and productivity [1][7] - The report notes a significant reduction in stock correlation among the five major AI hyperscalers, indicating a shift towards selective investment in potential winners within the tech sector [8] - The spillover effects of tech capital spending are anticipated to drive growth in non-tech sectors, creating a cross-industry growth wave termed "AI+ industry" [9]

Core Viewpoint - The economist Ma Guangyuan argues that most high housing prices in China are reasonable, with only a few cities experiencing excessively high prices that lead to issues in the real estate market [1] Group 1: Housing Price Dynamics - The price formation mechanism in China's real estate market has its internal logic, driven by rapid urbanization and significant population migration to first-tier and core second-tier cities, resulting in high housing demand and limited supply due to scarce land resources [3] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen attract a large number of high-quality talents due to their superior educational, medical, and employment resources, which contributes to the rising housing prices reflecting the agglomeration effect of these resources [3] Group 2: Affordability Issues - The housing price-to-income ratio in many hot cities has exceeded international warning levels, making it nearly impossible for ordinary working-class families to afford a standard home, particularly in cities like Shenzhen, where the ratio has surpassed 40 [5] - This extreme housing price situation indicates a significant disconnect from residents' actual purchasing power, leading to market distortions [5] Group 3: Financial and Policy Implications - The intertwining of land finance and financial risks is a deeper issue in the housing market, with local governments heavily reliant on land sale revenues, which contributes to rising land prices and, consequently, housing prices [7] - The fluctuation of property prices as a key collateral directly impacts the stability of the financial system, posing systemic financial risks if housing prices were to drop significantly [7] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Ma Guangyuan's metaphor of "sick cities" suggests the need for differentiated and precise regulatory strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, advocating for strict purchase and loan limits in cities with bubble risks while maintaining stable policies in cities with reasonable prices [9] - Recognizing real estate as not only an economic issue but also a significant livelihood concern, high housing prices contribute to social anxiety, affecting young people's decisions on marriage and family planning, as well as compressing other consumer spending due to mortgage burdens [11] Group 5: Perspective on Housing Market - Ma Guangyuan's views, while somewhat biased, offer a new perspective on China's housing market, emphasizing the importance of nuanced analysis rather than simplistic criticism or defense, as different cities have varying development stages, resource endowments, and population structures that influence housing price formation and rationality [13]

白银"狂飙"还在继续。隔夜，现货白银首度站上67美元/盎司关口，期货市场COMEX白银期价创下67.68美元/盎司新 高。业内普遍认为，即将到来的2026年，白银受多重因素驱动，仍将继续"闪耀"。 在科技股反弹带动下，美股三大指数周五集体收涨。截至收盘，道指涨0.38%，报48134.89点；纳指涨1.31%，报 23307.62点；标普500指数涨0.88%，报6834.50点。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.86%，热门中概股多数上涨，小鹏汽 车涨超6%，理想汽车涨超5%。 国际局势方面，据新华社报道，美国国防部长赫格塞思19日宣布，美军当天在叙利亚境内对极端组织"伊斯兰国"目标 发动袭击，以回应日前叙利亚发生针对美军的袭击。 白银期现价格再创新高 隔夜，短暂回调后的白银继续冲高。截至收盘，伦敦现货白银首度站上67美元/盎司高位，并创下67.455美元/盎司的历 史新高。 期货市场表现同样不俗。COMEX白银又一次突破67美元/盎司关口，最高涨至67.68美元/盎司，同样刷新历史新高。 COMEX白银 IC SIOOY 延 ▼ 67.395 今开 64.465 65.415 最高 67.680 最低 9453 ...

Economic Overview - Guangdong's economy has shown overall stability in 2023, with the industrial added value of above-scale enterprises growing by 3.2% year-on-year from January to November, and manufacturing increasing by 3.4% [1][2] - The automotive manufacturing sector has experienced a significant growth of 9.9%, with an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [1][2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value growth is supported by key sectors, with the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing growing by 7.1%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 5.2% [2] - High-tech product output has maintained double-digit growth, with civilian drones, industrial robots, servers, and 3D printing equipment increasing by 41.2%, 32.8%, 36.9%, and 44.1% respectively [2] Service Sector Performance - The revenue of above-scale service industries increased by 6.9% year-on-year from January to October, with strong support from information transmission, software, and IT services, which grew by 9.4% [3] - The transportation market has remained stable, with freight volume holding steady at 34.73 million tons year-on-year, and cargo turnover increasing by 9.0% [3] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 15.7% year-on-year from January to November, while investment in equipment and tools has grown by 0.8%, accounting for 16.1% of total investment [4] - Investment in modern service industries has seen rapid growth, with internet and related services investment increasing by 86.6% [4] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.5% year-on-year from January to November, with urban consumption growing by 2.7% and rural consumption by 0.6% [5][6] - Sales of certain upgraded products have seen rapid growth, with retail sales of cultural and office supplies and communication equipment increasing by 13.8% and 19.7% respectively [6]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Province is effectively implementing its "14th Five-Year Plan" to construct a new regional development pattern, showcasing significant economic growth and strategic planning achievements. Group 1: Economic Performance - Jiangsu's economic total accounts for over 40% of the Yangtze River Delta region and 22% of the Yangtze Economic Belt's 11 provinces and cities [1] - All 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu are ranked among the top 100 in the country, with five cities having an economic total exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] - The urbanization rate gap between permanent and registered population in Jiangsu has narrowed to 5.36 percentage points, making it one of the provinces with the smallest gap in the country [1] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - Jiangsu has established a comprehensive land spatial planning system, achieving basic coverage of detailed planning in city centers [2] - The province has implemented a combined approval process for land and forestry, reducing application materials by 35% and review time by 37% [2] - Jiangsu's high-speed rail mileage has reached 2,594 kilometers, ranking first in the country, and the province has built 21 cross-river channels [2] Group 3: Transportation and Logistics - The logistics cost-to-GDP ratio in Jiangsu has decreased to 12.8%, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than the national average [3] - In the previous year, Jiangsu's railway passenger volume exceeded 314 million, the highest in the Yangtze River Delta region [3] - The province's transportation network enhances economic circulation and improves regional connectivity [3] Group 4: Rural and Urban Integration - Jiangsu's rural residents' per capita disposable income is projected to reach 32,414 yuan in 2024, an increase of 8,216 yuan since 2020 [5] - The income ratio between urban and rural residents has narrowed from 2.19:1 to 2.04:1 [5] - The province has seen a significant increase in agricultural production, with grain output reaching 76 billion jin and continuous growth in planting area [5] Group 5: National Strategy Alignment - Jiangsu has actively engaged in national strategic initiatives, enhancing collaboration in science, technology, and industry across regions [6] - The Yangtze River Delta ecological and green integration development demonstration zone has produced 154 institutional innovation results during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6] - Jiangsu has implemented 180 key projects to accelerate the development of the demonstration zone [6] Group 6: Support and Cooperation - Jiangsu has allocated over 34 billion yuan in aid funds during the "14th Five-Year Plan," implementing nearly 9,000 support projects [7] - The province has established partnerships with key laboratories and innovation centers in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [7] - Jiangsu's enterprises listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange and Hong Kong Stock Exchange are the highest in the country, with 55 and 136 companies respectively [7]

证券日报网讯 12月19日晚间，城建发展发布公告称，公司第九届董事会第二十九次会议审议通过《关 于建兴丰汇公司向中国工商银行申请不超过18亿元贷款的议案》等多项议案。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

来源：大伟看楼市 近期，楼市出现了令人瞩目的反转现象：曾因设施陈旧、户型老化被市场冷落的老房子，突然成为购房 者争抢的"香饽饽"，多地核心区域老房带看量激增，成交价稳步回升。这一变化并非偶然，背后是2026 年国家楼市定调的精准引导，更是房地产市场从增量扩张转向存量优化的必然结果。在"控增量、去库 存、优供给"的政策主线指引下，老房的价值被重新发现，楼市发展逻辑正在发生深度重构。 老房的"逆袭"，首先源于城市核心价值的回归，其不可复制的区位优势成为核心竞争力。长期以来，老 房虽有居住体验上的短板，但大多盘踞城市核心区或次中心，享受着数十年沉淀的优质配套资源。地 铁、三甲医院、重点学校、成熟商超等设施步行可达，这种"十分钟生活圈"的便利度，是新兴板块新建 商品房难以比拟的——后者受土地供应限制多分布在城市外围，宣传的配套往往需要3-5年才能兑现， 甚至存在规划落空风险。数据显示，一线城市和强二线城市中心城区25年以上老房的平均升值幅度已达 15%，明显高于同期新建商品房涨幅；北京二环内改造后的老房单价比四环外新房高出20%-30%，杭州 西湖边90年代老房因稀缺湖景资源，单价反超周边新建住宅。 老旧小区改造的持 ...

e g 0 0 但胡润研究院近期联合万通保险发布的《2025中国高净值人群金融投资需求与趋势白皮书》及上述联合中信保诚人寿发布的《2025中国高净值人群品质养老 报告》的数据均显示，在2025年，高净值人群的资金流向发生了一些显著的变化。 调研数据显示，在未来一年的投资计划中，高净值人群减持意愿最强的两类资产变成了投资性房产和银行理财；与此同时，资金流入意愿最强的领域变成了 保险与黄金。 对于这群平均年龄44岁、平均家庭净资产3700万元的人群而言，这一变化反映了投资心态的转变：相比于追求高风险的资产增值，他们现在更看重资产的安 全，以及能否为未来的养老生活提供保障。 从房地产撤退 要理解资金的流向，首先需要厘清高净值人群的钱从哪里来。 在胡润研究院与万通保险联合调研的500位高净值人士中，经营收入和工资收入是其财富的主要来源，分别占比37%和28%，投资收益占比为22%。 记者 郑晨烨 根据知名市场研究机构胡润研究院12月18日发布的《2025中国高净值人群品质养老报告》，中国60岁及以上人口数量已超过3亿，平均每天约有5.5万人正式 进入退休状态。 在这一波人口结构变迁的浪潮中，处于财富金字塔顶端的高净值 ...

智通财经APP讯，中原建业(09982)公布，由于复牌指引已获履行，公司已申请股份自2025年12月22日上 午九时正起于联交所恢复买卖。 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a shift, with an increase in sellers and a growing number of buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach, leading to a phenomenon referred to as "selling wave" [1] - Homeowners are reassessing the costs associated with property ownership, focusing on annual expenses rather than potential appreciation [3] - The value of properties is increasingly influenced by population movement, with demand concentrated in areas with strong educational, transportation, and employment support [7][9] Group 1: Cost Considerations - Homeowners are now calculating the total cost of ownership, including mortgage interest, property fees, heating costs, and maintenance funds, which have become more apparent as income growth slows [5] - Many landlords find that rental income only partially covers mortgage payments, leading to a shift in mindset from "waiting" to "considering selling" when properties remain vacant for extended periods [5] Group 2: Changing Value Perception - The traditional view of property value based on city location is evolving, with significant disparities emerging between different areas within the same city [7] - Properties in areas with population inflow and strong demand are less likely to face selling challenges, while those in declining areas struggle to maintain value [9] Group 3: Shifts in Buyer Preferences - Buyers are increasingly focused on practical living conditions, such as commuting times and local amenities, rather than symbolic aspects of property ownership [11] - Older properties with outdated designs and poor management are becoming harder to sell, as buyers are more selective [13] Group 4: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The anticipated "selling wave" may not lead to uniform price declines; instead, some properties may experience rapid price drops while others remain stable [15] - Properties in prime locations, smaller sizes, and with good liquidity show stronger resilience against market fluctuations, while larger, less desirable properties may face more significant price adjustments [17] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The real estate market is entering a more rational and differentiated phase, where properties are viewed as long-term investments requiring careful consideration rather than short-term speculation [19] - The future trajectory of housing prices may exceed expectations, with opportunities and risks becoming unevenly distributed across the market [19]