华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 美国11月非农新增就业超预期，但失业率意外升至四年高位，交易员未加大对美联储降息的押注。道指与标普连跌三日，科技股在经历了连续下跌后迎来反 弹，支撑纳指收高。 特斯拉涨超3%，创历史新高。英伟达反弹0.8%。科技七巨头中，谷歌独跌0.54%、连续四个交易日下挫。Circle涨约10%。能源板块因原油拖累下跌3%。辉 瑞跌3.4%，公司发布悲观的业绩指引，拖累医疗保健板块。 美债收益率普跌，10年期下挫超3基点。美元较昨日尾盘变动不大，日内一度跌0.43%。离岸人民币延续昨日强势，一度升至14个月高点7.03附近。比特币涨 1.8%、日内一度触及8.8万美元。 黄金宽幅震荡，较日低一度涨近1.5%，随后回落守住4300美元一线。白银最终微跌0.5%。美油一度跌破55美元，创2021年初以来最低。 亚洲时段，AH股震荡调整，创业板跌超2%，消费、智能驾驶逆势走强，商业航天回调，恒指、恒科指跌超2%，黄金股走弱，铂钯期货续涨。 要闻 中央财办：投资和消费增速明年有望恢复，房地产供给端要严控增量、盘活存量。 美国就业继续降温：11月非农 ...

Group 1 - The core market sentiment is characterized by a loss of calculability regarding the future rather than a loss of confidence [2] - The market reactions to the non-farm payroll data were mixed, with the dollar index initially falling before recovering, gold prices spiking then declining, and S&P 500 futures showing volatility before closing lower [2][3] - The U.S. Treasury bonds experienced a comprehensive rise, with yields dropping by 2 to 3.5 basis points, indicating a preference for assets that do not require narrative justification [2] Group 2 - The overall market response was moderate, suggesting that it was not a significant trading day, with expectations of increased volatility compared to the previous day [3] - The market is currently in a state of risk avoidance, with defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and real estate performing poorly, while technology stocks managed to show slight gains [4] - The implications of the non-farm data are troubling for the Federal Reserve, as it disrupts the sense of direction in the market, creating uncertainty in pricing models [4]

智通财经APP获悉，周二，三大指数涨跌不一。延迟至本周二早间公布的美国11月非农就业数据显示， 11月新增就业岗位6.4万个，此前10月减少了10.5万个。数据还显示，美国11月失业率升至4.6%，高于9 月的4.4%，创2021年以来的新高。由于政府停摆导致无法追溯收集数据，劳工统计局未能公布10月失 业率。 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌302.30点，跌幅为0.62%，报48114.26点；纳指涨54.05点，涨幅为0.23%，报 23111.46点；标普500指数跌16.25点，跌幅为0.24%，报6800.26点。特斯拉(TSLA.US)涨3%，创下新 高，英伟达(NVDA.US)涨近1%，Circle(CRCL.US)涨近10%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.34%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数跌188.28点，跌幅0.78%，报24071.39点；英国富时100指数跌67.40点，跌幅 0.69%，报9683.91点；法国CAC40指数跌18.72点，跌幅0.23%，报8106.16点；欧洲斯托克50指数跌 36.56点，跌幅0.64%，报5715.96点；西班牙IBEX35指数跌126.70点，跌幅0 ...

全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有： 美国威胁对欧盟数字服务税计划实施报复 或启动301调查 1、美国威胁对欧盟数字服务税计划实施报复 或启动301调查 2、特朗普政府扩大对外国公民入境美国的限制 3、特斯拉股价创历史新高 自动驾驶乐观情绪升温 4、美国副总统万斯称他经常和白宫幕僚长威尔斯开阴谋论玩笑 5、城堡投资创始人格里芬称共和党的政策正在加剧通货膨胀 6、美联储博斯蒂克：倾向12月按兵不动 通胀风险更为紧迫 特朗普政府威胁要对欧盟采取报复措施，以反击欧盟对美国科技公司征税，被点名的知名企业包括埃森 哲、西门子和Spotify，它们可能成为新的限制措施或收费的目标。 美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）周二在社交媒体发帖称，"如果欧盟及其成员国坚持通过歧视性手段继续 限制、约束和阻碍美国服务提供商的竞争力，美国将别无选择，只能开始动用一切可用工具反制这些不 合理举措。" 帖文称，"若需要采取反制措施，美国法律允许对外国服务商收取费用或实施限制措施等行动。" 特朗普政府扩大对外国公民入境美国的限制 美国总统特朗普签署进一步限制来自部分国家公民入境的公告，将马里、尼日尔、叙利亚、布基纳法索 和南苏丹加入此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transition from AI customer service to human customer service is fraught with challenges, primarily due to AI's limitations in understanding user requests and intentional barriers set by companies, which negatively impact user experience [1][2]. Group 1: AI Limitations - AI customer service systems exhibit significant shortcomings in understanding user inquiries, leading to a frustrating experience for users trying to reach human representatives [1][2]. - The technical limitations of AI, combined with companies opting for lower-cost, basic versions of AI services, result in inadequate handling of complex customer needs [2][3]. Group 2: Company Practices - Some companies intentionally create obstacles for users attempting to access human customer service, reflecting a reluctance to address service quality issues and a focus on cost-cutting [2][3]. - The pursuit of cost reduction through AI can lead to a detrimental cycle of brand trust erosion and negative consumer perception, as companies prioritize efficiency over effective service [3]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - Companies should ensure that simple inquiries are handled by AI, while complex or unconventional requests are promptly escalated to human agents to avoid leaving users without support [3]. - There is a need for industry consensus on effective human-AI collaboration, with clear standards for AI customer service that prioritize user experience and service quality [3].

记者丨江佩佩 见习记者张嘉钰 编辑丨谢珍 12月16日，美股三大指数集体低开，截至 23:20 ， 道琼斯指数跌0.39%，标普500指数跌0.18%，纳斯达克综合指数跌0.36%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 48229.68 | -186.88 | -0.39% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23015.02 | -42.39 | -0.18% | | 标普500 | 6791.90 | -24.61 | -0.36% | | 纳斯达克100 | 25013.63 | -53.63 | -0.21% | | 万得美国科技七巨头指数 | 65201.64 | -9.65 | -0.01% | | 万得中概科技龙头指数 | 4273.82 | -43.67 | -1.01% | | 纳斯达克中国会龙指数 | 7525.01 | -57.04 | -0.75% | | 万得中概股100 | 2922.94 | -0.13 | 0.00% | | 1 万得美国科技指数(CNY) | 10957.38 | -8.43 | -0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the resilience and vitality of China's economy, projecting a stable growth rate of around 5% for the year, with a total economic output expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan [2][3]. Economic Performance and Challenges - The overall economic operation is stable, with major indicators meeting expectations, and external trade showing rapid growth [2]. - Despite achievements, challenges remain, including external environmental changes and domestic supply-demand imbalances [3]. Macroeconomic Policies - The government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on stability and quality improvement [4][5]. - Fiscal policies will maintain necessary deficits and debt levels while enhancing local government financial capabilities [5][6]. - Monetary policy will prioritize economic stability and reasonable price recovery, utilizing various tools to support growth [8]. Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority, with consumption contributing 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters [9]. - Investment in infrastructure and social services is crucial, with a focus on high-quality projects and stimulating private investment [10]. Regional Development and Coordination - The construction of international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is a strategic move to enhance global competitiveness [12][13]. - Regional coordination will be promoted through tailored development strategies and infrastructure connectivity [19][20]. Green Transition and Employment - The government aims to achieve carbon peak and neutrality, with a focus on developing a new energy system and green industries [21][22]. - Employment policies will prioritize stability, targeting key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers [24][25]. Real Estate Market Stability - The real estate market will be stabilized through supply-demand measures and support for housing enterprises to transition towards providing diverse living services [26][28].

从铜价反弹到股市周期性板块领涨，从债券收益率攀升到美元汇率重获动能——全球金融市场正在经历一轮广泛而深刻的重新定 价，核心逻辑指向对美国经济增长前景的重新评估。 据追风交易台，高盛Andrea Ferrario团队最新报告显示，该行风险偏好指标上周四达到0.75，创下今年1月以来最高水平。这一轮 市场重估的驱动力来自更乐观的增长预期，高盛PC1"全球增长"因子在过去三周录得2000年以来最大幅度的反弹之一。 在这轮重估中，周期性资产表现尤为突出。材料和金融板块领涨全球股市，而美国增长定价开始赶上世界其他地区，此前美国市 场年内表现相对滞后。与此同时，大部分债券市场出现抛售，实际利率上升成为推动收益率走高的主要因素。 高盛策略师认为，美股目前的定价水平反映2026年美国实际GDP增长接近市场共识的2.0%，但仍低于高盛预测的2.5%。这意味 着如果经济数据持续超预期，资产重估进程可能延续。 债券市场方面，美国和德国10年期国债收益率的上升主要由实际利率推动，通胀定价相对滞后于顺周期资产的反弹。英国国债表 现相对较好，主要因英国经济数据不及预期。虽然多个G10国家央行政策预期从降息转向加息有基本面支撑，但高盛利率 ...

从铜价反弹到股市周期性板块领涨，从债券收益率攀升到美元汇率重获动能——全球金融市场正在经历一轮广泛而深刻的重新定 价，核心逻辑指向对美国经济增长前景的重新评估。 据追风交易台，高盛Andrea Ferrario团队最新报告显示，该行风险偏好指标上周四达到0.75，创下今年1月以来最高水平。这一轮 市场重估的驱动力来自更乐观的增长预期，高盛PC1"全球增长"因子在过去三周录得2000年以来最大幅度的反弹之一。 在这轮重估中，周期性资产表现尤为突出。材料和金融板块领涨全球股市，而美国增长定价开始赶上世界其他地区，此前美国市 场年内表现相对滞后。与此同时，大部分债券市场出现抛售，实际利率上升成为推动收益率走高的主要因素。 高盛策略师认为，美股目前的定价水平反映2026年美国实际GDP增长接近市场共识的2.0%，但仍低于高盛预测的2.5%。这意味 着如果经济数据持续超预期，资产重估进程可能延续。 增长预期重估创多年新高 据高盛数据，其风险偏好指标上周四达到0.75，为1月以来最高水平。这一轮风险资产的强势表现主要由增长预期改善驱动，PC 1"全球增长"因子在三周内的涨幅创下2000年以来最大规模之一。 值得注意的是， ...

Trade Environment - The trade environment is stabilizing as US-China relations improve, with significant agreements reached during recent talks[5] - Major economies in Europe and the US are still in a phase of fiscal expansion and monetary easing, with the IMF predicting stable economic growth in developed economies[8][9] Export Growth Analysis - Global trade growth is expected to slow down due to high base effects from "export grabbing" and increased tariff rates, with a projected growth rate of 0-1% for exports in 2026[2] - Exports to the US and ASEAN may exhibit a "seesaw" effect, with significant contributions from transshipment trade to ASEAN exports this year[2] - Africa is identified as the fastest-growing export region, driven by demand for vehicles, ships, and consumer electronics[2] Economic Forecasts - The IMF forecasts that global trade volume growth will decline from approximately 3.7% in 2025 to 2.0% in 2026, with China's export volume growth expected to drop from 9.8% to 1.9%[20][21] - The US economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see slight declines in growth rates[9][8] Currency and Pricing - The RMB is anticipated to maintain a "stable yet slightly strong" trend, with export prices expected to decline marginally by around 2%[2] - The IMF predicts a decrease in global trade prices from 0.6% in 2025 to 0.1% in 2026, influenced by falling oil prices and domestic inflationary pressures[2] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include geopolitical conflicts and unexpected macroeconomic fluctuations that could impact trade dynamics[2]