Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is implementing a "port service fee" targeting Chinese shipping and shipbuilding industries, which is seen as a retaliatory measure against China's competitive pricing in the global shipbuilding market [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Motivations - The U.S. aims to undermine China's growing dominance in shipbuilding, as 90% of new ship orders are now directed to China, which threatens U.S. maritime supremacy [3]. - The new "port service fee" is a continuation of Trump's tariff policies, aimed at revitalizing the hollowed-out U.S. shipbuilding industry by imposing additional costs on Chinese vessels [3]. - The fee may extend beyond Chinese-flagged ships to include those manufactured, operated, or financed by Chinese entities, pressuring global shipping companies to choose between cost-effective Chinese vessels and more expensive U.S. alternatives [3][5]. Group 2: China's Response and Strategy - In response to U.S. pressure, China has enacted a revised International Shipping Regulations, which includes provisions for sanctions against countries that harm Chinese shipping interests, regardless of existing agreements [5]. - The new regulations also ensure that the Chinese government will support domestic shipowners and companies facing losses due to U.S. actions, indicating a strong protective stance [5]. - China's countermeasures are designed to target not only U.S.-flagged vessels but also any ships with U.S. financial ties, signaling a comprehensive approach to retaliate against U.S. policies [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - As the implementation date of the U.S. policy approaches, global shipping markets are experiencing tension and uncertainty, with shipping companies unsure of how to navigate the new fee structure [9]. - Major shipping firms like CMA CGM and Maersk are adjusting their fleets to mitigate risks, indicating a cautious approach to U.S. routes while maintaining ties with China [9]. - The ongoing conflict in the maritime sector reflects a broader competition between the U.S. and China, emphasizing the importance of resilience and strategic capabilities in the face of economic pressures [11].

Core Insights - Fujian Province is accelerating the construction of a transportation strong province, achieving a basic formation of the "211" transportation circle, with 86% of cities reachable within 2 hours and 95% of cities to their counties within 1 hour [1][2] - The province has made significant advancements in urban and rural transportation integration, with 1,350 urban-rural passenger transport lines established, and 92% of counties rated as national 5A for urban-rural transportation integration [2][3] - Fujian's port infrastructure is set to expand significantly, with an expected addition of 35 new berths capable of handling over 1 million tons, and a projected increase in cargo throughput by 21% compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3][4] Transportation Development - The urban transportation sector has seen the opening of 10 new rail lines, increasing operational mileage by 149.5% since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with public transport routes reaching 2,679 [2] - The introduction of various transport modes, including 246 customized passenger lines and 17 station bus lines, has diversified travel options for citizens [2] Port and Shipping Expansion - The port's cargo throughput is expected to reach 750 million tons and container throughput 18.5 million TEUs, marking a 21% and 7.5% increase respectively from the previous plan [3] - Fujian's shipping capacity has surpassed 20 million deadweight tons, ranking sixth nationally, with container capacity at 370,000 TEUs, ranking second [3] Cross-Strait Transportation - Fujian has established 8 passenger and 11 container shipping routes to Taiwan, handling 99% of mainland passenger traffic and approximately 30% of container traffic to Taiwan [4] - The "Little Three Links" passenger volume is projected to reach 1.37 million by 2024, reflecting a 79% increase [4]

Group 1 - The company announced the appointment of Mr. Kristian Helt as an executive director [1] - Mr. Zhang Riqi has resigned from his position as a non-executive director [1] - Both changes will take effect on October 13, 2025 [1]

Group 1: Trade War Dynamics - The current state of the US-China tech trade war resembles historical conflicts, with China demonstrating strategic patience while the US appears aggressive [1] - Recent developments indicate that Chinese companies, such as New Kai Lai, are making significant advancements in chip technology, potentially altering the balance in the tech trade war [1] - The trade war has entered a new phase, with China's AI advancements challenging the US's previous technological dominance [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Trump's announcement of a potential 100% tariff increase led to significant declines in US stock markets, highlighting the interconnectedness of the US tech and financial systems [3] - The speculative nature of investments in AI and semiconductor sectors has created a market bubble, with OpenAI's financial maneuvers exemplifying this trend [3][4] - The scale of infrastructure and chip agreements surrounding OpenAI has exceeded $1 trillion, raising concerns about sustainability given the high energy consumption [4] Group 3: Shifts in Global Trade Practices - China's move towards de-dollarization is evident, with agreements for iron ore and oil trades to be settled in RMB, challenging the dollar's dominance in global commodity markets [9][12] - The shift in trade practices is further illustrated by China's cessation of soybean imports from the US, marking a significant change in agricultural trade dynamics [10][11] - The US is facing challenges in filling the market gap left by China, with potential repercussions for its agricultural sector reminiscent of past economic crises [11] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Positioning - The US's reliance on AI as a primary economic driver is under scrutiny, with concerns about the lack of tangible exports to support market valuations [12][13] - China's advancements in chip technology and self-sufficiency may reduce its dependency on US technology, indicating a potential shift in the competitive landscape [13][15] - The upcoming developments in the semiconductor sector could significantly impact the US stock market, particularly the major tech companies that have rallied around AI [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation in the US-China conflict highlights a shift in China's response strategy, moving from passive to assertive measures against US actions, particularly in the shipping and semiconductor industries [1][3]. Shipping Industry - The US plans to impose a port fee of $50 per ton on Chinese-operated and manufactured vessels, prompting China to retaliate with a fee of 400 RMB per ton on not only US-owned ships but also those with over 25% US capital ownership [1][3]. - China currently dominates the global shipping industry, holding seven out of the top ten container ports and over 53% of the global merchant shipbuilding market, while the US holds only 0.1% [3]. Semiconductor Industry - China's advancements in semiconductor technology include achieving a 95% yield rate for 28nm chips and achieving self-sufficiency in 5G RF chips, which strengthens its position against US companies like Qualcomm [5][7]. - The US's reliance on Chinese rare earth materials is critical, as these materials are essential for various high-tech products, including automobiles and military equipment [5][7]. Trade Dynamics - China's foreign trade dependency on the US has decreased, with shifts in agricultural imports towards countries like Russia, Spain, Brazil, and Argentina, while ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner [5][7]. - The nature of exports from China to the US has evolved from low-end to high-end products, such as DJI drones and high-performance cameras, which the US cannot produce at competitive prices [5][7]. Strategic Response - China has developed a comprehensive countermeasure system that integrates rare earths, technology, manufacturing, finance, military, and geopolitical strategies, allowing it to respond effectively to US actions [7]. - The shift from being a "rule taker" to a "rule maker" signifies China's growing confidence and capability in the global arena, making it increasingly difficult for the US to exert its influence [7].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The core factor affecting the EC price trend this week is geopolitical risk. The initial agreement on the Gaza ceasefire has significantly reduced geopolitical risk, increasing the possibility of mainstream shipping companies resuming Red Sea voyages, which is negative for market sentiment and will also put pressure on freight rates from the supply side in the long term. The approaching time for the US to impose port fees on Chinese ships and the US's announcement of a 100% tariff on China are both negative for the European index futures price from a macro - sentiment perspective. However, Trump's subsequent remarks on social media leave some room for improvement, presenting certain positive factors. In the short term, futures prices, especially far - month futures prices, are more likely to continue to fluctuate slightly downward or return to a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East and the development of Sino - US relations [1]. - The current spot cabin quotes for the European route and the SCFI European route have stopped falling and rebounded, enhancing the short - term valuation of near - month futures prices. However, geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment have certain negative impacts, and the possibility of a rebound from low levels should be guarded against [2]. - Uncertainties remain in the Middle East situation. If the Gaza ceasefire process shows significant setbacks or Red Sea voyages are truly resumed, it will have a relatively significant impact on futures prices. In the first eight months of this year, the peak - season characteristics of the European container shipping market were relatively vague. For the following months, the demand in the off - season may further weaken, and the demand support during peak seasons like December may also be relatively weak [5]. - The container shipping index (European route) futures (EC) prices showed a wide - range volatile trend under the influence of geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment this week. Technically, the short - term moving average crossed below the long - term moving average again, indicating a short - term downward expectation. Recently, there has been no significant change in the positions of the main players in the container shipping market, but the net short positions of profitable players and foreign investors have slightly increased, indicating that the market sentiment remains relatively bearish [31]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Factors - Geopolitical risk is the core factor affecting the EC price trend. The Gaza ceasefire agreement reduces risk, increasing the possibility of Red Sea resumption and pressuring freight rates. Sino - US trade frictions have both negative and positive impacts on futures prices [1]. - The current situation of European route spot cabin quotes and SCFI European route is positive for near - month futures price valuation, but geopolitical and macro - factors have negative impacts [2]. - Uncertainties in the Middle East and the demand characteristics of the European container shipping market are important factors affecting futures prices [5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Traders can try the 10 - 12 positive spread arbitrage [11][40]. - **Trend Judgment**: The downward momentum continues. The short - term support level for the main contract is in the range of 1450 - 1500, and the pressure level is in the range of 1700 - 1750. The overall strategy can be relatively bearish, and short - term intraday trading is recommended due to geopolitical and macro uncertainties. Traders can temporarily stay on the sidelines in the spot - futures (basis) strategy [11]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Cargo Space Management**: For those with full cargo space or poor booking volume and worried about freight rate decline, they can short container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits [11]. - **Cost Management**: To prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1450 - 1500 to determine booking costs in advance [11]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - The FBX comprehensive route index decreased by 4.53% to 1540.00 dollars/FEU, the CICFI decreased by 0.01% to 647.22 points, the SCFI increased by 4.12% to 1160.42 points, the NCFI increased by 11.5% to 818.97 points, the CCFI decreased by 6.68% to 1014.78 points, and the CFFI decreased by 4.99% to 2399.00 points [10]. - The SCFIS European route decreased by 6.60% to 1046.50 points, the SCFIS US - West route decreased by 4.82% to 876.82 points, the SCFI European route increased by 9.99% to 1068 dollars/TEU, the SCFI US - West route increased by 0.55% to 1468 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI US - East route increased by 2.81% to 2452 dollars/FEU [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: US stock futures rebounded on the evening of October 12. Trump softened his tone on Sino - US relations. CMA CGM announced a price increase for the Asia - to - Nordic route starting from November 1. The SCFI European route stopped falling and rebounded [25]. - **Negative Information**: Maersk may resume Red Sea voyages. China will impose special port fees on US - related ships starting from October 14. Trump announced a 100% tariff on China and new export controls on key software products on October 10 [26][27][28]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's export trade situation [29]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Fund Flow**: The container shipping index (European route) futures prices showed a wide - range volatile trend. Technically, there is a short - term downward expectation. Market sentiment is relatively bearish as the net short positions of profitable players and foreign investors have slightly increased [31]. - **Basis Structure**: The SCFIS European route continued to decline with a slightly narrowing decline. The basis of the main contract EC2510 decreased compared with the previous week. As the delivery month approaches, the basis has fallen to a relatively reasonable range. Affected by the contract change, the basis rate has significantly decreased, and caution is needed for hedging at the current level [35]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The spreads of the container shipping European route inter - month contracts EC2510 - 2512, EC2510 - 2602, and EC2512 - 2602 were - 449.9 points, - 216.9 points, and 233.0 points respectively. The decline in each month's contract price was mainly due to geopolitical risks and macro - factors, with a greater negative impact on far - month contracts. Traders can try the 10 - 12 contract positive spread arbitrage [40]. Chapter 4: Profit Analysis - In the first half of the year, mainstream shipping companies such as COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Maersk, and CMA CGM Group had relatively good profit and revenue performance, while some shipping companies such as ONE and Yang Ming Marine Transport saw a significant reduction in profits compared with the same period last year. Most shipping companies still achieved profitability, indicating that the current market is not bad. For the second half of the year, liner companies believe that uncertainty has increased, and they will operate more cautiously, which may affect freight rates from the supply and cost sides [44].

明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/10/13 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 环比 最新 | | 数据指标 | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1562.500 1359.9 | | -42.6↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | | -5.50↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2512-EC2602价差 | 202.60 -30.40↓ EC2512-EC2604价差 | | | 464.00 | | -38.00↓ | | EC合约基差 | -6.20↓ | -530.70 | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 28771 715↑ | | | | | | | ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market faced pressure due to renewed tensions in the US-China trade war, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 1.52% at 25,889.48 points, and the trading volume reaching 490.37 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.82%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.45% [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Xiaomi Group's stock price dropped 5.71% to 49.08 HKD, contributing to a decline of 84.76 points in the Hang Seng Index [2] - Semiconductor company SMIC saw a rise of 3.35% to 80.15 HKD, contributing 18.42 points to the index [2] Sector Performance - Technology stocks collectively declined, with Tencent down nearly 2% and Alibaba down 1.69% [3] - Gold stocks performed strongly, with the price of gold surpassing 4,070 USD per ounce, leading to significant gains in gold-related stocks [4] - Software stocks surged following the announcement of a new WPS format for government documents, with Kingsoft Software rising 13.82% to 36.56 HKD [4] Trade and Regulatory Developments - The US announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, which is viewed as a bargaining chip rather than a definitive measure, according to analysts [7] - The semiconductor industry is seeing increased focus on self-sufficiency due to ongoing trade tensions, with new export controls being proposed by the US [6] Notable Stock Movements - Gold stocks such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining rose 9.34% to 35.6 HKD, while Zijin Mining increased by 9.2% to 142.4 HKD [3] - Kingsoft Software's stock surged nearly 14% following the announcement regarding the WPS format [4] - The stock of Gold Power International rose 13% due to tightened export controls on rare earths by the Chinese government [10] Industry Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent use of WPS format in government documents reflects a push for self-reliance in key technologies and information security [5] - The semiconductor sector is expected to benefit from increased domestic focus on self-sufficiency amid rising trade tensions [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.19% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.93% as of October 13 [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.37 trillion yuan, a decrease of 159.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Port and Shipping Stocks - Port stocks saw a collective surge, with Nanjing Port hitting the daily limit, and other stocks like Lianyungang, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Ningbo Maritime also rising [3][4] - Some shipping stocks, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Ningbo Maritime, rose over 6% [4] Regulatory Changes Impacting Shipping - The Ministry of Transport of China announced that starting October 14, 2025, special port service fees will be charged for U.S.-owned or operated vessels, which could significantly impact Sino-U.S. maritime trade [6] - The fee structure will increase progressively, starting at 400 yuan per net ton in 2025 and reaching 1120 yuan per net ton by 2028 [7] Rare Earth Sector Performance - The rare earth sector showed strong performance, with stocks like China Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous rising by 10% [8][9] - Recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth-related items have expanded the scope of regulation, affecting the entire industry chain [8][9] Company-Specific Developments - Kingsoft Office saw its stock price increase by over 8% following the announcement that the Ministry of Commerce's recent notice would now be in WPS format, which gained significant attention on social media [10][12] - The company reported a revenue of 1.748 billion yuan from its WPS personal business, reflecting an 8.38% year-on-year growth, and a significant increase in WPS 365 business revenue by 62.27% [12] Leadership Changes - Vanke's stock price dropped following the resignation of its chairman, Xin Jie, after only nine months in office [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Wanjiac ZHONGZHENG Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (159333) has experienced a decline in both share count and total assets in 2024, indicating potential challenges in attracting investment [1][2]. Fund Overview - The fund was established on August 21, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of October 10, 2024, the fund's total shares stood at 349 million, with a total size of 492 million yuan [1]. - Compared to December 31, 2024, the fund's shares decreased by 19.03% and total size decreased by 4.20% [1]. Liquidity Analysis - Over the last 20 trading days, the ETF recorded a cumulative trading amount of 582 million yuan, averaging 29.1 million yuan per day [1]. - Year-to-date, the ETF has seen a cumulative trading amount of 7.394 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 39.75 million yuan over 186 trading days [1]. Fund Management - The current fund manager, Yang Kun, has managed the ETF since its inception, achieving a return of 41.58% during the management period [2]. - The ETF's top holdings include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Orient Overseas International, CITIC Bank, China Petroleum, and others, with varying ownership percentages [2].