Core Viewpoint - The delivery ceremony of the Zeekr 009 Glorious Edition, China's first airborne car delivery, took place on a private jet, highlighting the luxury and innovative experience of the vehicle [1][3]. Group 1: Product Features - The official starting price of the Zeekr 009 Glorious Edition is 899,000 yuan, featuring luxurious elements such as gold accents and high-quality materials, appealing to high-end consumers [1]. - The vehicle is designed with safety and comfort in mind, including a unique one-piece cast C-ring seat that secures rear seats to the aluminum body, ensuring passenger safety [5]. - It boasts the world's first LC privacy dimming glass, which can switch from bright to dark in one second, with a UV blocking rate of 99.9% and a shading rate of 99.5% [5]. - The seats are made from ultra-soft aniline leather, featuring 11 layers and 12 ergonomic support zones, providing 20 massage points and a graphene thermal SPA experience [5]. Group 2: Market Position and Consumer Insights - The Zeekr 009 Glorious Edition is favored by high-end users, with a significant portion of buyers being executives and entrepreneurs, predominantly male [1][3]. - The vehicle's performance is notable, being the fastest accelerating MPV globally, achieving 0-100 km/h in just 3.9 seconds, and equipped with a battery that allows for over 500 km of range in just 11.5 minutes of charging [5]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has surpassed 50%, with domestic brands like Zeekr capturing a significant share of the 600,000 yuan market segment, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards local luxury vehicles [6].

Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address the current macroeconomic contradictions and the "prisoner's dilemma" of chaotic competition in industries, emphasizing the need for improved resource allocation efficiency and product quality enhancement [2][4] - The policy is expected to have a more significant impact on emerging industries facing overcapacity, such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, compared to traditional industries that have already undergone some consolidation [4][10] Industry Analysis - Since 2020, emerging manufacturing sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics have rapidly developed, leading to significant supply-side homogeneity and price declines, with prices for photovoltaic materials dropping nearly 90% since 2023 [4][9] - The traditional industries, such as steel and cement, have seen improved profitability and price levels compared to ten years ago, indicating that the marginal effects of the "anti-involution" policy on these sectors may be less pronounced than during the previous supply-side reforms [4][10] - The report highlights that the current economic environment and the structure of industries have evolved, making the sectors affected by overcapacity different from those ten years ago, with the focus now on new emerging industries [5][10] Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to be more moderate compared to the previous supply-side reforms, focusing on guiding and regulating rather than enforcing strict capacity reductions [7][8] - The government has emphasized the importance of balancing "anti-involution" efforts with employment stability, indicating that the approach may prioritize positive guidance over aggressive capacity cuts [8][10] - Recent meetings and initiatives from government bodies indicate a strong commitment to addressing low-price competition in emerging sectors, with significant actions already taken by leading companies in the photovoltaic and automotive industries [9][29] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as the photovoltaic supply chain, lithium battery industry, and traditional industries like steel and cement that are experiencing overcapacity [11] - Specific recommendations include prioritizing leading companies in the photovoltaic sector, energy storage, and new energy vehicles, as well as traditional industries that have shown resilience and improved profitability [11][29]

银河证券认为车企半年度冲量提升终端优惠、"高息高返"到期、部分地区以旧换新暂停等因素也在一定 程度上引发消费者购车需求的前置，推动了6月车市销量的增长。展望下半年来看，国家发改委政策研 究室副主任李超于6月26日表示将于今年7月份下达第三批消费品以旧换新资金，我们认为补贴资金不足 属于短期因素，资金下达后以旧换新仍将继续对车市内需形成提振，全年车市销量有望实现稳增长；新 能源方面，6月新能源渗透率有望续创新高，小米首款纯电SUV产品YU7在6月26日晚上市后1小时大定 达28.9万台，18个小时锁单达24万台，且据工信部新车目录，下半年还将有理想i8、i6、极氪9X、银河 M9、乐道L60、比亚迪海狮06等多款新能源新车上市，市场新供给持续丰富，叠加新能源汽车下乡政策 以及购置税免征政策年底到期带来的抢装效应，预计下半年新能源渗透率仍将继续保持逐月提升趋势。 证券之星新能源车行业周报：据上海有色网，截至7月4日，电池级碳酸锂6.13-6.33万元/吨，均价6.23万 元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨200元/吨；工业级碳酸锂6.02-6.12万元/吨，均价6.07万元/吨，环比上一工 作日上涨200元/吨，碳酸锂现 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down by 151 points, ending at 24,069, after initially rising to a high of 24,269 before falling below the 24,000 mark [3][4] - The total trading volume for the day was 231.25 billion HKD, with net outflows from northbound trading amounting to 3.05 billion HKD [3][4] - Major blue-chip stocks such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan experienced declines of 2.9%, 0.1%, and 2.5% respectively [3] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The June PMI for China's service sector showed a slowdown in growth, contributing to the weak performance of the Hong Kong stock market [4] - The ongoing price war in the Chinese electric vehicle market is expected to shift towards non-price incentives starting in 2025, as the market matures [8] - AlixPartners predicts that by 2030, only 15 out of 129 electric vehicle brands in China will remain financially viable, capturing three-quarters of the market share [8] Group 3: Company News - Yuexiu Property reported a contract sales amount of approximately 61.5 billion RMB for the first half of the year, an increase of about 11% year-on-year [12] - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical's drug for ovarian cancer has been approved for market in China, addressing a significant unmet clinical need [13] - Shimao Group announced the sale of a 50% stake in a Beijing project for approximately 156 million RMB, expecting a profit of about 52 million RMB from the transaction [14]

弘则研究 内卷的反内卷：过剩工业品的春天？20250703 摘要 反内卷与 GDP 高增长目标存在冲突，官方尚未明确解释或调整 GDP 目 标，当前政策对市场更多是短期情绪冲击，难有全局性改变。需关注新 能源领域，特别是光伏和新能源车产业，这两个领域疫情期间产能扩张 显著，可能面临产能约束政策。 焦煤市场受多重因素推涨，包括地缘政治风险和环保限产，市场担忧钢 材产业重蹈 2015 年供给侧改革覆辙。在当前供给侧改革情绪下，不建 议做空焦煤，前期空单可考虑阶段性止损平仓，等待更明确政策出台后 再决策。 钢铁行业 1-5 月粗钢产量低于去年同期，市场已通过价格自我调节，下 半年无显著行政减产必要。焦煤行业资产负债率良好，钢材出口竞争力 增强，适当下行的焦煤价格有利于下游利润和出口，总体而言，钢铁行 业供给侧改革概率不高。 原料市场供应过剩主要因下游需求缺乏支撑，而非供应端增量明显。焦 煤平衡表已从过剩修正为平衡状态，但不会带来向上空间。关注国产矿 产量变化，预计全年度供应过剩问题因进口矿减量有所改善，但整体上 游库存仍预计垒库，对下半年原料市场偏空观点不变。 Q&A 最近中央财经委员会会议提到反内卷以及推动落后产 ...

同时，YU7锁单用户平均年龄33岁。其中，女性用户比例30%，比小米SU7同期高 4.5%。女性用户最青睐的颜色是流金粉、丹霞紫；男性用户 最青睐的是喜欢寒武岩灰、深海蓝。 小米YU7的苹果用户占比52.4%，比SU7同期高4.4%。当前订单数最多的TOP3城市分别是上海、杭州、北京。这三个地方也都是Model Y卖得 最好的城市。 随着小米YU7的正式到来，小米创办人，董事长兼CEO雷军也在近日的直播中跟大家聊了YU7和SU7最新情况，以及背后的一些故事。 同时，雷军表示，"上周，小米YU7正式发布，火爆程度超出了我们的预期，真心感谢大家的支持！" 结合雷军给出的信息来看，小米YU7发布后，很多人质疑"7天可退"的原则。实际上，这是行业惯例，也就是车企给大家提供的犹豫期，一般 是3天。小米首销期定了7天，主要是担心门店的试驾安排不过来。 小米YU7开售18小时后，锁单24万单，大家都在关心24小时大定和锁单，小米当时决定不公布了，免得引来各种讨论和质疑。 有人质疑："订单里有大量转单"。但实际上，小米SU7 和小米SU7 Ultra转单小米YU7的数量，不足小米YU7订单的15%。 雷军还表示： 最近，我看 ...

乘联分会：中国6月初步统计新能源车市场零售同比增长25%，环比增长4%。 ...

Group 1 - The National Index for New Energy Vehicle Batteries (980032) has seen a strong increase of 2.02%, with key stocks such as CATL (300750) rising by 4.79% and Keda Li (002850) by 4.47% [1] - The Battery ETF (159755) has recorded a trading volume turnover of 4.27% and a transaction value of 146 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The latest scale of the Battery ETF has reached 3.389 billion yuan, marking a three-month high and also ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Index for New Energy Vehicle Batteries account for 65.51% of the index, with major companies including CATL (300750) and BYD (002594) [2] - In the first half of 2025, six major car manufacturers reported a total sales volume of 8.7929 million units, with wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 6.47 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38% [2] Group 3 - Solid-state batteries are recognized for their high energy density and safety, with applications expected to expand in various fields, including automotive and robotics [3] - The Battery ETF closely tracks the National Index for New Energy Vehicle Batteries, reflecting the market performance of listed companies in the new energy vehicle battery industry [3]

Core Insights - The sales momentum of new energy vehicles (NEVs) remains strong in the first half of the year, with significant improvements in various technical aspects such as power structure, range, and battery energy density [1][2][4] Group 1: Sales and Market Trends - In June, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.26 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29%, with a total of 6.47 million units sold in the first half of the year, marking a 38% year-on-year growth [2] - The number of new energy vehicle models in the tax exemption directory for 2025 is 2,533, which is fewer compared to previous years, indicating a stable technical upgrade in exempt models [2][3] Group 2: Technical Developments - The majority of new pure electric passenger vehicles launched this year have a range exceeding 600 kilometers, with a notable increase in high-energy density battery products [2][4] - The market for short-range products is diminishing, while the demand for low-speed electric vehicles remains significant, suggesting potential growth in this segment [6] Group 3: Product Differentiation - Hydrogen fuel commercial vehicles have gained traction due to substantial subsidies, surpassing plug-in hybrids in the number of models submitted for approval [3] - The new models of plug-in hybrids are primarily focused on higher mileage, with most having a range of 100-200 kilometers, while range-extended vehicles are also seeing rapid growth [7] Group 4: Cost and Performance Considerations - The industry is shifting from merely competing on data to a more pragmatic approach, with manufacturers focusing on safety, cost, and overall performance of new models [8] - The effective control of battery costs has allowed manufacturers to offer vehicles with high ranges (500-600 kilometers) at lower price points, enhancing market accessibility [8]

Core Insights - Xiaomi's Yu7 vehicle received strong market response with over 200,000 pre-orders in just 3 minutes and 240,000 within 18 hours of launch [1] - CEO Lei Jun addressed concerns regarding the pre-order data, clarifying that the statistics align with industry standards and that the cancellation rate for Yu7 is low compared to other models [1] - Competitors have attempted to intercept Yu7 orders using misleading sales tactics, which Lei Jun criticized, emphasizing the importance of focusing on product strengths rather than disparaging competitors [1] Pre-order Data - The Yu7 achieved over 200,000 pre-orders in 3 minutes and 240,000 within 18 hours, indicating strong consumer interest [1] - Lei Jun stated that the cancellation rate for Yu7 is less than 15% of the total orders, which is significantly lower than the transfer orders for other models [1][2] - The decision not to disclose the 24-hour lock order data was made to avoid unnecessary speculation and discussion [1] User Demographics - The average age of Yu7 owners is approximately 33 years, which is three years older than SU7 owners [2] - Female ownership of Yu7 stands at 30%, which is 4.5% higher than the SU7 during its initial sales period [2] - Among Yu7 owners, 52.4% are iPhone users, which is 4.4% higher than the SU7 [2] Future Plans - Lei Jun indicated that due to high domestic demand, Xiaomi will focus on fulfilling local orders before considering international expansion, which may occur around 2027 [2]