清明节休假，全家老老小小的住酒店度假，这会晚上都去游泳池玩水了，就我一个人在房间里上钟。 今天虽然不开盘，但非常热闹，发生的事不少，你们听我一件一件说。 首先是中国决定对美发起关税报复，对原产于美国的所有商品加征34%关税，同时把一批美国企业列入 了出口管控管制名单。不仅态度十分强硬，而且反应迅速，美国那边刚宣布第二天中国的反制措施就出 来了，说明很早就已经有相关预案，就等美国出招立刻予以还击。 两边互加34%关税，这外贸基本上就没法做了，几千亿美元的生意，一个不打算再进口了，一个不打算 再出口了，一拍两散，就这么着吧。 美国之所以如此蛮横，底气在于他们是全球最大的贸易逆差国，而且比第2到第10的贸易逆差额加起来 还多，大部分国家在对美贸易中是赚钱的，所以不到万不得已不愿和美国翻脸。另外美国还是全球最大 的消费市场，将近20万亿的规模，占全球的1/3，如果放弃美国市场，多出来的商品卖到哪是一个很棘 手的问题。 具体到中美贸易，去年美国从中国进口5246亿，中国从美国进口1636亿，那显而易见的一笔账，都收 34%关税的话美国能收到更多的钱。但即便如此中国依然在第一时间做出了反击，在全球大多数国家和 地区对美关 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion as of the end of 2024, representing a nearly 40% increase since 2020, with an annual growth rate of 9%, significantly outpacing GDP growth [1][3] - The U.S. government has implemented three large-scale stimulus packages totaling $5 trillion since the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to a persistent increase in the fiscal deficit [1][3] - Interest payments on U.S. federal debt are projected to reach $882 billion in 2024, exceeding the defense budget for the first time, which equates to the cost of burning 20 F-35 fighter jets daily [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. is facing a political deadlock, with the Republican Party demanding $4.5 trillion in spending cuts over the next decade, while the Democratic Party blames the debt surge on a $2 trillion stimulus package from the Trump administration [3][5] - International rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. credit outlook, with Moody's predicting a loss of 7 million jobs and a 4% economic contraction if a default lasts for six weeks [3][5] Group 3 - China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. debt from a peak of $1.3 trillion in 2013 to $759 billion, while simultaneously increasing its gold reserves to 2,300 tons, becoming the world's largest gold buyer for 18 consecutive months [5][6] - The global economic landscape is shifting as countries accelerate de-dollarization efforts, with the share of the U.S. dollar in global reserves dropping from 73% in 2001 to 58%, the lowest in 25 years [6][8] Group 4 - The crisis is fundamentally a challenge to U.S. hegemony, as countries like Russia and India are increasing their gold reserves and promoting alternative currency settlement systems [6][8] - China is positioning itself as a responsible global leader by proposing initiatives for emerging market infrastructure and expanding cooperation among BRICS nations, contrasting with the U.S. approach of zero-sum games [8]

法国经济复苏再次面临"哑火"风险 近期，法国央行发布多项经济预测数据显示，法国2025年经济增长将持续放缓，凸显出在面临政局 动荡、债务高企、投资萎靡等内忧，以及贸易战威胁、外部需求疲软等外患下，法国经济复苏进程正面 临再次"哑火"风险，并将陷入"低增长—高债务"的恶性循环。 3月12日，法国央行发布最新预测报告显示，在外部不确定性形势持续冲击投资和出口部门的背景 下，2025年法国经济增速将仅为0.7%。同时该报告认为，2024年底至2025年初的疲弱增长未能为全年 经济复苏奠定良好基础。特别是在巴黎奥运会带来的提振效应逐渐消退下，2025年上半年，法国经济增 长将持续保持低迷。同时，法国央行预测，在外部市场持续受限下，法国本年度的经济增长将主要依靠 法国国内消费拉动，预计2025年法国通胀率将回落至1.3%，将有助于提高居民实际购买力，并对消费 增长形成支撑。同时，失业率将基本稳定，但将在今明两年达到7.8%的峰值水平。 此前，法国央行曾于2024年9月将法国2025年经济增速预期设定为1.2%，并于12月下调至0.9%。有 法国央行经济学家认为，本轮再次下调充分显示出对前期法国政局动荡及当下外部政治环境 ...

每日机构分析：3月25日 荷兰国际银行：预计韩国央行5月采取宽松货币政策 穆迪：澳储行或需进一步降息 摩根士丹利：美联储宽松政策可能性被低估 巴克莱银行外汇策略师表示，短期内，欧元兑英镑的汇率可能在0.8345至0.8380的区间内波动，其 突破方向将取决于英国央行和欧洲央行政策预期的进一步明确。 ING分析师指出，美国消费者信心数据可能弱于预期，这将导致美元走低。市场对美国经济增长的 悲观情绪主要源于消费者数据的疲软。预计世界大型企业研究会 3 月消费者信心指数将从 98.3 降至 93.5，而 ING 预计该指数将降至 93.0。即使降幅略低于预期，市场也难以从该数据中看到美元的积极 因素。 穆迪分析师表示，尽管澳大利亚2025 - 2026年度预算为家庭提供了一定程度的纾困，但它并未解决 通胀中更为棘手的问题，比如低收入家庭面临的高昂保险费用和房租成本。要在抑制国内通胀的需求与 应对不断加剧的全球经济逆风之间取得平衡，并非易事。该预算展现出了值得注意的克制，没有进一步 推高通胀。穆迪重申其观点，即澳洲联储今年应再降息50个基点，使 2025年的累计降息幅度达到75个 基点。 荷兰国际银行表示，委内瑞拉是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent executive order signed by President Trump imposing a 25% tariff on goods imported from countries that directly or indirectly import Venezuelan oil, effective April 2. This move is expected to impact international oil prices and trade relations significantly [1][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on all goods from countries importing Venezuelan oil starting April 2 [3][4]. - The Secretary of State has the authority to decide on the implementation of these tariffs, which will last for one year from the last import date of Venezuelan oil [3][4]. - Trump referred to this tariff as a "secondary tariff," similar to secondary sanctions aimed at third-party countries [4]. Group 2: Impact on Oil Prices - Following the announcement, international oil prices surged, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 1.21% to $69.11 per barrel, marking the highest level since March 4 [1][4]. - Brent crude oil futures also increased by 1.16%, reaching $73.00 per barrel [1][4]. Group 3: Additional Tariffs - Trump indicated plans to announce additional tariffs on automobiles, wood, and chips in the coming days, suggesting a broader approach to tariffs beyond the Venezuelan oil issue [7][8]. - He mentioned that not all tariffs would take effect on April 2, hinting at potential exemptions for certain countries [7][9]. Group 4: Economic Concerns - Analysts express concerns that escalating tariffs could lead to economic downturns in the U.S., with predictions of a 40% chance of recession this year, up from 30% earlier [10]. - The potential for stagflation, characterized by slow growth and high inflation, is also highlighted as a significant risk [10].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The risk of a recession in the U.S. is high and increasing, with Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warning that Trump's tariff policies could push the economy into recession if implemented for three to five months [1][4][3] - Zandi noted that the current economic environment is fragile, with declining consumer and business confidence impacting investment plans [4][3] - The potential for a recession is described as a "designed recession," indicating that it could be a result of deliberate policy choices rather than external shocks [4] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs has raised concerns about its impact on various sectors, including agriculture and technology [3][5] - Analysts warn that tariffs could hinder the development of U.S. data centers and AI technologies, as much of the necessary hardware is sourced from abroad [5][6] - The imposition of tariffs on key components, such as semiconductors, could pose significant risks to the data center market, which relies on global supply chains [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and its characterization of inflation as "temporary" has faced criticism, particularly from Allianz's chief economic advisor, who labeled it a "major policy mistake" [6][7] - Concerns are raised that the Fed's underestimation of inflation risks could lead to inadequate responses to economic changes, similar to past misjudgments during the pandemic [7][8] - Barclays economists suggest that the Fed's confidence in the temporary nature of price pressures may hinder its ability to respond effectively to evolving economic conditions [7][8]