1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, with only the trading volume of the precious metals sector decreasing. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle, and it is advisable to move short - option positions to far - month contracts in advance to avoid end - of - contract risks [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. Affected by the decline in iron ore futures prices, the implied volatility of black options has risen. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals. There is a lack of new macro - drivers, and the upward momentum of prices has been weakened. The implied volatility still has room to rise, and it is advisable to buy a bearish put spread portfolio to hedge against the downward market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, with the precious metals sector being the only one with a decline in trading volume. Energy and chemical products such as short - fiber, PTA, methanol, glass, crude oil, caustic soda, soda ash, and bottle chips are about to expire on Wednesday. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. The implied volatility of black options has risen due to the decline in iron ore futures prices. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals [4]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The table shows the quantitative data of commodity options, including the flat - value volatility, 60 - day quantile, Skew, and 60 - day quantile of various varieties such as corn, soybean meal, and crude oil [12]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.54 Option Data of Each Variety - For each variety (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the data includes the closing price, trading volume, open interest, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, flat - value volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew of the main contract, secondary - main contract, and all contracts [13][14][15] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, London gold fell 0.43%, and London silver fell 0.54%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 81.7 the previous week to 82.1. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.83%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.11% (2 - year 3.55%), and the US dollar index was 99.54. The precious metals market was in a volatile state with unclear drivers, and the upcoming December FOMC meeting of the Fed is facing a difficult decision - making situation in an information vacuum. The government shutdown is a key factor, and the swing between risk - off and risk - on will determine the market trend next week [6]. - Gold is in a high - level adjustment, and silver's volatility is determined by market risk preference. The strength - weakness analysis shows that gold is neutral, and silver is neutral. The price ranges are 890 - 950 yuan/gram for gold and 11000 - 11700 yuan/kilogram for silver [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Spread - Gold: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract fell to - 7.51 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was 12.6 US dollars/ounce [12]. - Silver: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract rose to 0.101 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.21 US dollars/ounce [15]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Spread - Gold: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was - 3.62 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [19]. - Silver: This week, the silver spot - futures spread was - 4 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spread - Gold: This week, the gold monthly spread was 7.56 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [28]. - Silver: This week, the silver monthly spread was 54 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [31]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - For gold (buy TD and sell Shanghai gold, buy Shanghai gold December and sell June), the total costs are 2.91 yuan/gram and 15.17 yuan/gram respectively [34][35]. - For silver (buy TD and sell Shanghai silver, buy Shanghai silver December and sell June), the total costs are 37.53 yuan/kilogram and 178.15 yuan/kilogram respectively [36][37]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Direction - This week, in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, gold's deferred fee was mainly paid from long to short, indicating strong delivery power, while silver's was mainly paid from short to long, indicating strong receiving power [38]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - Inventory Ratio - Gold: This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.44 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.4%. Gold futures inventory increased by 1.8 tons [40][44]. - Silver: This week, COMEX silver inventory decreased by 72.25 tons to 14993 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 34%. Silver futures inventory decreased to 42 tons, and the SGE silver inventory decreased by 24 tons to 830 tons [42][44]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Position - This week, COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long position in gold increased slightly, while that in silver decreased slightly [46]. 3.1.8 ETF Position - Gold: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 1.71 tons [52]. - Silver: This week, the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 101.18 tons [54]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio rose from 81.7 last week to 82.1 [56]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rate - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 4.7% [58]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rate - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [63].

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 1.81% to $3941.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling by 2.40% to $46.90 per ounce [1] - The surge in gold prices has been noted to exceed the performance driven by large tech stocks in the Nasdaq, indicating a potential bubble behavior characterized by self-reinforcing momentum [1] - There is a concern that any panic from missed opportunities could amplify market excitement, even in response to marginal or unrelated events [1] Group 2 - Despite some opinions labeling the current rise in gold prices as a bubble, there are logical reasons for the increase, including changes in the monetary and financial system, a weak dollar, and gold's role as a monetary anchor and inflation hedge [4]

Group 1 - The spot gold price accelerated its decline, breaking below $3940 per ounce, with a daily drop of 1.63% [1][2] - The spot silver price also fell over 2%, currently reported at $47.016 per ounce [1] - In the futures market, the main contracts for precious metals saw short-term declines, with Shanghai gold down 1.57%, currently at 904.74 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver dropping over 2%, currently at 11113 yuan per kilogram [4] Group 2 - The highest price for spot gold reached $4005.940, while the lowest was $3933.415 [2] - The trading volume for spot gold was noted at 0, indicating a lack of significant trading activity during this period [2] - The average price for the day was not specified, but the market showed a consistent downward trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - International precious metals closed mixed on November 3, with COMEX gold futures rising while COMEX silver futures declined [1][2] Group 1: Gold Market - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.43%, closing at $4013.7 per ounce [1] Group 2: Silver Market - COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.52%, closing at $47.91 per ounce [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Powell's hawkish stance means the release of expectations for the Fed's loose monetary policy requires time, but the Fed Chair has explained balance - sheet expansion. The December interest - rate cut is uncertain, while the subsequent "rate cut + balance - sheet expansion" monetary policy is emphasized [2] - In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with potential spot shortages, it is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [2] Group 3: Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.39% to 921.84 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 0.25% to 11382.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold was at 4013.40 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver was at 48.25 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.11%, and the US dollar index was 99.73 [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the overseas spot silver implied lease rate was 5.95%, the overseas silver EFP rate was 0.35 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 1537 tons from the high on October 3 to 15005.53 tons [1] Group 4: Historical Price Drivers - Changes in the Fed's balance sheet have a more significant impact on precious - metal prices than interest - rate policies. In May 2024, the Fed slowed QT, and the COMEX silver price rose 19.7% from May 2 to May 21 [1] - In August 2010, Bernanke's speech hinted at QE2, and from the end of August 2010 to the end of April 2011, the COMEX silver price soared 169% [1] Group 5: Silver Spot Situation - The previous tight - spot situation driving silver prices has eased, but COMEX silver is still in the process of continuous de - stocking, and the London silver premium over New York silver rebounded last Friday. The continuous de - stocking of COMEX silver indicates strong physical demand for silver in the fourth quarter [1] Group 6: Key Data Summary - For gold on October 31, 2025, the COMEX closing price rose 0.96%, the trading volume fell 98.56%, the position increased 2.43%, and the inventory decreased 0.20%. Similar data for other gold - related indicators are also provided [5] - For silver on October 31, 2025, the COMEX closing price fell 0.99%, the position increased 1.75%, the inventory decreased 0.14%. Similar data for other silver - related indicators are also provided [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Weekly Report [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: November 2, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - This week, London gold fell 2.26%, and London silver rose 1.99%. The gold-silver ratio dropped from 85.6 to 81.7, the 10-year TIPS fell to 1.81%, the 10-year nominal interest rate fell to 4.11% (2-year 3.6%), and the US dollar index was 99.73 [5]. - The prices of precious metals stabilized this week. The outcome of the China-US trade negotiation was in line with expectations, causing the market to return to the narrative of G2 confrontation. Technically, gold near $4,000 has the cost - effectiveness for bottom - fishing. For silver, although the overseas price spread contradiction has eased, the long - term low inventory in the London market remains unsolved. On October 30, the silver lease rate rebounded slightly, and the London - New York price spread showed signs of a rebound. Short - term upward rebound potential in silver is worth attention, while gold has the cost - effectiveness for bottom - fishing but lacks the driving force for a new rise and may require monthly - level oscillations to digest the price [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spreads - **Gold**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to -$74.51 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -$81.5 per ounce [11]. - **Silver**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.4062 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was $0.43 per ounce [14]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spreads - **Gold**: This week, the gold spot - futures price spread was -$0.9 per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [18]. - **Silver**: This week, the silver spot - futures price spread was -$31 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [20]. 3.1.3 Monthly Price Spreads - **Gold**: This week, the gold monthly price spread was $7.12 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [24]. - **Silver**: This week, the silver monthly price spread was $58 per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [29]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs - **Buy TD and Sell Shanghai Gold**: The total cost is $3.34 per gram [32]. - **Buy Shanghai Gold December and Sell June**: The total cost is $15.30 per gram [33]. - **Buy TD and Sell Shanghai Silver**: The total cost is $46.59 per kilogram [34]. - **Buy Shanghai Silver December and Sell June**: The total cost is $179.52 per kilogram [35]. 3.1.5 Shanghai Gold Exchange Spot Deferred Fee Payment Directions - Gold mainly had long - to - short payments, indicating strong delivery power; silver mainly had short - to - long payments, indicating strong receiving power [36]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratios - **COMEX Gold**: Inventory decreased by 0.71 million ounces this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52% [38]. - **COMEX Silver**: Inventory decreased by 451 tons to 15,005 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 34% [40]. - **Futures Inventory**: Gold futures inventory increased by 0.8 tons, silver futures inventory decreased to 664 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory decreased by 190 tons to 905 tons [42]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions - COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold increased slightly, while those in silver decreased slightly this week [44]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - **Gold**: The SPDR gold ETF inventory decreased by 13.17 tons this week [50]. - **Silver**: The SLV silver ETF inventory decreased by 230 tons this week [53]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio fell from 85.6 last week to 81 this week [54]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - The 3 - month gold lease rate was -0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 4.7% this week [57]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: The correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered this week, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: Data on inflation and retail sales are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Non - Farm Payroll Performance**: Data on non - farm payroll performance are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: No specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: No specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Fed Rate - Cut Probability**: No specific data or analysis is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent correction in precious metal prices is mainly due to the expectation of a temporary easing of overseas risk events and an over - bought correction in trading, rather than a reversal of the trading logic. The price decline is more of a "correction in the upward trend" than a "trend reversal" based on geopolitical risks, weakening US dollar credit, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, focusing on the upcoming Fed interest - rate meeting and considering buying on dips. [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On October 27, 2025, Shanghai gold futures (SHFE) fell 0.48% to 941.34 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.25% to 11,419.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4,126.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 48.41 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index was 98.94. [2] - From August 22 to October 17, the price of the COMEX gold main contract rose by 26.21%, and the price of the COMEX silver main contract rose by 31.23%. On October 21, COMEX gold prices dropped by 5.07%, and COMEX silver prices dropped by 6.27%. [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices - Overseas risk events: Media reports of a potential peace plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a short - term drop in precious metal prices. However, the situation has not been completely reversed as Trump and the White House stated there are no plans for a meeting between the US and Russian presidents. [2] - US inflation data and Fed policy expectations: US September CPI data was lower than expected, boosting expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy. Due to the government shutdown in October, inflation data may not be released in November. The market has almost fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in the next two Fed meetings. [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - Maintain a long - position strategy. Focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting on Thursday (market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut), and pay attention to Powell's statement on the balance - sheet. It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference trading range for the SHFE gold main contract is 923 - 982 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE silver main contract is 11,082 - 12,023 yuan/kilogram. [4] 3.4 Data Summary - **Gold**: On October 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.39% to 4,126.90 US dollars/ounce, trading volume increased by 10.19% to 29.20 million lots, and open interest increased by 2.43% to 52.88 million lots. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.44% to 938.10 yuan/gram, trading volume decreased by 33.87% to 49.95 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.28% to 35.59 million lots. [7] - **Silver**: On October 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.49% to 48.41 US dollars/ounce, open interest increased by 1.75% to 16.58 million lots. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 1.18% to 11,332.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume decreased by 5.55% to 147.59 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.97% to 73.99 million lots. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is still in the early stage of the easing cycle, and the most important driver - the new Fed Chair nominee has not been announced. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals. Wait for the price to stabilize and then enter long positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 928 - 982 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 10962 - 11690 yuan/kilogram [4]. - Precious metal prices have found short - term support after a significant decline. The macro environment still has positive factors for gold and silver prices, but from the perspective of positions, they still need to consolidate. Overseas risk aversion has increased, leading to a short - term stabilization of gold prices. Tomorrow evening, the US September CPI data will be released. The US Treasury Secretary expects the CPI to decline next month [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On October 23, 2025, Shanghai Gold fell 1.56% to 934.72 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 0.04% to 11331.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4101.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 48.03 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index was 98.92 [2]. - Comparing this week with last week, SHFE Gold was at 994.06 yuan/gram, up 5.87%; SHFE Silver was at 11805.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.36%. COMEX Gold was at 4138.50 US dollars/ounce, down 0.51%; COMEX Silver was at 48.16 US dollars/ounce, down 4.34% [5]. 3.2 Position and Inventory - The positions of gold and silver ETFs were relatively weak due to the impact of price shocks. The SLV Silver ETF position decreased by 79.03 tons to 15597.61 tons yesterday, and the SPDR Gold ETF total position decreased by 6.29 tons to 1052.37 tons [3]. - For COMEX Gold on October 22, 2025, the position (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased by 2.43% to 52.88 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.14% to 1212 tons. For COMEX Silver, the position increased by 1.75% to 16.58 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.56% to 15584 tons [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump expressed disappointment with ending the negotiation process in Ukraine. The US government announced a significant increase in sanctions against Russia and cancelled the meeting between Trump and Putin, leading to an increase in overseas risk aversion [2]. - The US Treasury Secretary, Baysent, said that energy prices have declined, and he expects the CPI to decline next month. He also mentioned that "the rise in gold prices is helpful to us" [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold reached a new all - time high of $4070 per ounce, and silver broke through the $50 mark and remained strong. The escalation of Sino - US trade friction and the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year created a resonance, and the continuation of the US government shutdown and data vacuum intensified the demand for hedging and allocation. Although the short - term sentiment is bullish, the risk of high - level fluctuations has increased [1]. - If risk events continue to ferment, the prices of gold and silver are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. London gold is expected to trade in the range of [3900 - 4200] dollars per ounce, and London silver in the range of [48 - 55] dollars per ounce [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports from November 1st and restrict the export of key software. China warned of counter - measures. The market is still worried about the uncertainty of the negotiations around the APEC meeting [2]. - The US government shutdown has entered its third week, and the congressional budget negotiation has reached a deadlock. The Senate plans to resume voting on Tuesday, and the unpaid leave of some federal employees has caused fiscal implementation risks [2]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been strengthened. The CME FedWatch shows that the probabilities of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in October and December are 96% and 87% respectively. New York Fed President Williams reiterated support for further interest rate cuts this year to address labor market weakness [2]. - Trump said that if Russia does not "compromise" soon, he will consider providing "tactical cruise missiles" to Ukraine. Russia warned that this would lead to an "uncontrollable escalation" of the situation, and geopolitical risk aversion sentiment has increased [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - **Gold**: The resonance of trade friction and loose expectations has pushed up the gold price. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the decline of the US dollar, and the US fiscal deadlock jointly support the price. The government shutdown has weakened the availability of economic data, and the market continues to chase the rise in the sentiment of "no data is bullish". If there is a correction due to short - term technical overbought, $4000 is the primary support level, and the increase in price volatility may lead to phased profit - taking [3]. - **Silver**: Supported by the structural tightness of the London spot market, the lease rate remains high, and the physical premium is obvious. The abundant overall liquidity of precious metals and the short - squeeze effect make the increase of silver relatively ahead of gold. If the volatility significantly increases, one should be vigilant about the correction risk after the short - term increase in volatility. In the long - term, it is still supported by global de - dollarization and the recovery of industrial demand [3]. 3.3 Market Performance of Indexes - On October 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2232.76, down 0.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2520.82, down 0.80%; the industrial products index was 2225.76, down 0.58% [43]. - The precious metals index on October 10, 2025: the daily decline was 1.21%, the increase in the past 5 days was 4.99%, the increase in the past month was 11.25%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 43.23% [45].