Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw most base metals decline, with copper hitting a one-week low, influenced by concerns over credit pressures in U.S. regional banks, leading to a negative sentiment in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 17, LME three-month copper fell by $42.5, or 0.4%, closing at $10,604.5 per ton, with an intraday low of $10,430, marking a 2% drop and the lowest since October 10 [1][2]. - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down by $11.00 (0.39%), zinc down by $39.50 (1.33%), and tin down by $735.00 (2.05%) [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Copper is viewed as a barometer for the global economy, with recent supply concerns pushing prices to a 16-month high of $11,000 per ton last week [1]. - Recent reports indicate a temporary easing of supply concerns, as copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 550 tons, reaching the highest level since April [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The environment is characterized by a general risk aversion, with high-risk assets under pressure due to concerns over the U.S. economic situation [4]. - The spread between spot copper contracts and three-month forward contracts widened, indicating a decrease in immediate demand for copper [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's base metal futures closed mixed on the night of October 17, with various metals showing different price movements [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - Aluminum oxide increased by 0.61% [1] - Shanghai aluminum rose by 0.60% [1] - Shanghai tin saw a rise of 0.53% [1] - Stainless steel increased by 0.52% [1] - Shanghai nickel rose by 0.48% [1] - Shanghai zinc increased by 0.21% [1] - Shanghai copper saw a slight increase of 0.09% [1] - Shanghai lead decreased by 0.41% [1]

Report Overview - Date: October 13, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Industry: Green Finance and New Energy 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment has turned bearish, leading to low - level oscillations in nickel prices [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The combination of macro factors and market reality exerts downward pressure, but the cost floor limits the downside potential [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Anticipated tariff hikes are suppressing demand, which may cause lithium prices to face downward pressure [2][7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Upstream production is resuming, suggesting a strategy of short - selling on price rallies [2][10]. - **Polysilicon**: With a weekend meeting held, it is advisable to look for buying opportunities on price dips [2][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,180 yuan, down 2,300 yuan from the previous day. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,780 yuan, down 80 yuan. There were also detailed data on trading volume, spot prices, and spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's forestry working group took over a nickel mine due to license violations, potentially affecting monthly production by about 600 metal tons. China suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies and issued new regulations on mining business plans [4][5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both nickel and stainless steel is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,740 yuan, down 600 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, and various price spreads in the lithium carbonate market [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased slightly. Tibetan Mining received new mining rights. Ford postponed lithium purchases and adjusted its electric - vehicle tax - credit plan [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is - 1, suggesting a bearish view [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2511 contract closed at 8,685 yuan/ton. There were detailed data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, spot prices, and profit margins for industrial silicon and polysilicon [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US will impose a 68.45% tariff on metal silicon imports from Angola starting October 1 [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for industrial silicon is - 1 (bearish), and for polysilicon, it is 0 (neutral) [13].

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that all basic metal futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced a decline during the night session on October 11, with significant drops in various metals [1][2] Group 2 - Copper futures fell by 4.46% [1] - Tin futures decreased by 2.63% [1] - Aluminum oxide dropped by 2.47% [1] - Nickel futures declined by 1.98% [1] - Aluminum futures fell by 1.59% [1] - Stainless steel decreased by 1.48% [1] - Zinc futures dropped by 1.23% [1] - Lead futures experienced a slight decline of 0.09% [1]

Core Insights - LME metal futures closed generally higher on October 4, with LME copper rising by $225 to $10,716 per ton [1] - LME aluminum increased by $17, reaching $2,710 per ton [1] - LME zinc rose by $14, closing at $3,034 per ton [1] - LME lead decreased by $4, settling at $2,020 per ton [1] - LME nickel saw an increase of $116, ending at $15,433 per ton [1] - LME tin surged by $567, closing at $37,455 per ton [1]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **沪镍**: The overall situation is bearish, with the price fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average in the range of 120,000 - 123,800. Traders should control their positions before the holiday [2]. - **不锈钢**: The situation is neutral, with the price broadly fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Market Data - **镍 and Stainless Steel Price**: On September 29, the Shanghai nickel主力 contract closed at 121,100, down 280 from September 26; the London nickel price was 15,325, up 170. The stainless steel主力 contract was 12,760, down 80. Spot prices of various nickel and stainless - steel products showed little change [12]. - **基差**: The Shanghai nickel spot price was 122,000, with a basis of 900; the average stainless - steel price was 13,962.5, with a basis of 1,202.5 [2][4]. 2. Inventory Data - **镍 Inventory**: As of September 29, LME nickel inventory was 231,312 (up 1,188), and Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 25,057 (down 96) [2]. - **不锈钢 Inventory**: As of September 29, stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts were 87,148 (down 357). On September 26, the national stainless - steel inventory was 984,500 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous period, while the 300 - series inventory increased by 5,400 tons [4][19][20]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **镍 Fundamental**: The nickel ore price is firm, and due to the typhoon, mine loading and shipping may be delayed. The nickel - iron price is stable, but nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The production and sales data of new - energy vehicles are good, but the loading of ternary batteries is still decreasing, with limited boost to nickel demand. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [2]. - **不锈钢 Fundamental**: The spot stainless - steel price is flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price, shipping freight, and nickel - iron price are all stable, and the cost line is firm. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down [4]. 4. Market Outlook - **镍 Outlook**: The Shanghai nickel 2511 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, operating in the range of 120,000 - 123,800 [2]. - **不锈钢 Outlook**: The stainless - steel 2511 contract will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 5. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There are expectations of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and a cost support line at 120,000 [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic nickel production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The loading volume of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of basic metal futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange during the night session on September 30, with some metals experiencing gains while others saw declines [1][2]. Group 2 - Shanghai tin rose by 2.62% [1] - Shanghai copper increased by 1.96% [1] - Shanghai zinc gained 1.22% [1] - Shanghai nickel went up by 0.78% [1] - Shanghai aluminum saw a rise of 0.31% [1] - Stainless steel increased by 0.20% [1] - Shanghai lead decreased by 0.09% [1] - Alumina fell by 0.52% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Shanghai Futures Exchange's base metal futures closed mixed on the night of September 26, with some metals experiencing price increases while others saw declines [1][2]. Group 2 - Zinc on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.39% [1] - Copper increased by 0.27% [1] - Aluminum saw a rise of 0.10% [1] - Lead experienced a slight increase of 0.09% [1] - Tin decreased by 0.01% [1] - Alumina fell by 0.27% [1] - Stainless steel dropped by 0.74% [1] - Nickel declined by 0.86% [1]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, the silicon ferroalloy 2511 contract was reported at 5742, up 0.88%. For the silicon ferroalloy, the macro - level sees the joint issuance of the "Steel Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" by relevant departments. Supply has increased after profit improvement, with neutral inventory and short - term cost support. The market has a lower tender price. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 24, the manganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5916, up 0.44%. For manganese silicon, macro - level includes diplomatic activities. Fundamentally, production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has increased significantly, and the port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased. The iron - water demand has recovered. The market has a lower final pricing. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - SM (Manganese Silicon)主力合约收盘价 was 5,916.00 yuan/ton, up 34.00 yuan; SF (Silicon Ferroalloy)主力合约收盘价 was 5,742.00 yuan/ton, up 44.00 yuan [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 529,129.00 hands, down 9,301.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 369,202.00 hands, down 1,439.00 hands [2]. - Manganese silicon's top 20 net positions were - 69,893.00 hands, down 842.00 hands; Silicon ferroalloy's top 20 net positions were - 32,705.00 hands, down 680.00 hands [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 42.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 102.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan [2]. - SM仓单 was 60,014.00 sheets, up 517.00 sheets; SF仓单 was 17,779.00 sheets, up 547.00 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In Inner Mongolia, the price of manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,720.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; in Guizhou, it was 5,750.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 5,680.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00 yuan. The manganese silicon index average was 5,717.00 yuan/ton, up 59.00 yuan [2]. - In Inner Mongolia, the price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5,560.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai, it was 5,370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Ningxia, it was 5,480.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SF主力合约基差 was - 262.00 yuan/ton, down 44.00 yuan; the SM主力合约基差 was - 196.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 24.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 760.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 452.50 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 45.68%, down 1.70%; the silicon ferroalloy enterprise operating rate was 34.84%, unchanged [2]. - The manganese silicon supply was 208,775.00 tons, down 5,355.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy supply was 113,100.00 tons, up 100.00 tons [2]. - The manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 198,900.00 tons, up 32,100.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy manufacturer inventory was 63,390.00 tons, down 6,550.00 tons [2]. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese silicon was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; the national steel mill inventory of silicon ferroalloy was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel types was 121,426.00 tons, down 888.00 tons; the demand for silicon ferroalloy from the five major steel types was 19,588.60 tons, down 148.80 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.38%, up 0.18% [2]. - The crude steel output was 7,736.86 million tons, down 228.96 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Guangdong issued an emergency notice on typhoon "Huajiaisha" prevention, implementing "five - stop" measures in key affected areas [2]. - US President Trump made statements on Russia - related issues, including tariff threats and NATO's response to Russian aircraft [2]. - Russia's energy ministry deputy said it might further restrict fuel exports and extended the gasoline export ban to the end of September, with possible extension to October [2]. - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongshang met with Ray Dalio, and they exchanged views on the international economic situation and financial market dynamics [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - For silicon ferroalloy on September 24, the 2511 contract was at 5,742, up 0.88%. The macro - level has a steel industry plan. Supply has increased, inventory is neutral, and costs are supported. Profits are negative in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The 9 - month Hebei Iron and Steel 75B silicon ferroalloy tender price decreased. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - For manganese silicon on September 24, the 2601 contract was at 5,916, up 0.44%. The macro - level has diplomatic activities. Production has been rising, inventory has increased, and the port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased. Profits are negative in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The Hebei Iron and Steel Group's 9 - month silicon manganese final price decreased. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the futures market for basic metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced mixed results during the night session on September 23, with some metals rising while others fell [1][2]. Group 2 - Stainless steel increased by 0.19% [1] - Zinc rose by 0.18% [1] - Lead saw a slight increase of 0.03% [1] - Copper experienced a minor decline of 0.02% [1] - Nickel decreased by 0.19% [1] - Aluminum fell by 0.26% [1] - Tin dropped by 0.28% [1] - Alumina saw a significant decrease of 0.95% [1]