Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai copper first rose to a record high of 89,270 but then fell. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and Chairman Powell hinted it might be the last cut this year, and due to the Sino - US meeting in Busan, the market's selling sentiment increased. The spot price rose 300 to 88,065, the spot discount narrowed to 55, the social inventory decreased by 0.19 tons this week, and the spot import loss was 880 with the import window closed [10]. - Strategy: The short - term market has priced in the positive news of Sino - US relations and Fed rate cuts. Considering the tight copper supply at the end of the year and the initiative of the CSPT group, investors can still buy on dips [10]. Group 3: Industry News - Anglo American's Collahuasi Mine: The mine in Chile is facing ore quality decline, which will limit next year's production. It is expected to return to normal production in 2027 with an output of about 600,000 tons [11]. - ENAMI's New Copper Smelter: ENAMI has obtained environmental approval for a new $1.7 billion copper smelter. It will process up to 850,000 tons of copper concentrate and produce up to 240,000 tons of cathode copper annually [11]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the copper market fundamentals suggest a reasonable consolidation at the upper end of the price forecast range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton, with any significant breakout unlikely to be sustained [1] - On Wednesday, copper prices surged to $11,200 per ton due to supply concerns and improved trade outlook, surpassing the previous record high of $11,104.50 per ton [1] - The investment bank does not foresee a tightening of copper market fundamentals in the next six months, predicting a slight supply surplus in 2026 even with a significant drop in global refined copper production [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs aligns its forecast of $10,500 per ton for copper in 2026 with the expectation that if visible copper inventories do not continue to decline, investors may start to liquidate long positions in early 2026 [2] - Despite tight positions among LME copper investors, the open interest in COMEX remains low compared to the peak in Q2 2024, indicating potential for further entry into the COMEX copper market, which may temporarily push LME copper prices higher [2] Group 3 - As the world's largest copper consumer, China faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign upstream resources, excess capacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell from record highs due to cautious comments from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts and concerns over demand [1][4] - On October 30, LME three-month copper dropped by $266.5, or 2.38%, closing at $10,917.0 per ton, after reaching a record high of $11,200 due to supply concerns [1][2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most actively traded copper contract decreased by 0.1% to 87,960 yuan per ton, indicating a shift from a premium to a discount in the Chinese spot market [4] Group 2 - Major copper producers reported a decline in copper output in the first nine months of the year, leading analysts to raise their price expectations for next year [4] - Chile's copper production in September fell by 4.5% year-on-year to 456,663 tons, highlighting supply challenges [4] - Goldman Sachs indicated that the current copper market fundamentals suggest prices will stabilize towards the upper end of the $10,000 to $11,000 per ton range, with any significant breakout unlikely to be sustained [5]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily analysis of the non - ferrous metals market on October 30, 2025, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1]. - It includes market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal [1][2][3]. Group 2: Market Reviews Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 87,960 yuan/ton, down 0.1%, and the Shanghai copper index increased positions by 2,982 lots to 620,000 lots. LME closed at $11,090/ton, up 0.55%. Shanghai copper spot was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton [1]. Alumina - The alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2,816 yuan/ton. The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was 2,840 yuan, up 5 yuan [8]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China were 21,190 yuan (up 30), 21,070 yuan (flat), and 21,050 yuan (up 10) respectively [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract increased by 100 yuan to 20,750 yuan/ton. The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in various regions remained flat [24]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.13% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index increased positions by 4,449 lots to 214,800 lots. The spot price in Shanghai was 22,300 - 22,425 yuan/ton [31]. Lead - The Shanghai lead 2512 contract fell 0.06% to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index decreased positions by 2,688 lots to 119,800 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead was flat at 17,200 yuan/ton [37]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 40 to 120,980 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,185 lots. The premium of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, and electrowinning nickel changed to varying degrees [42]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 50 to 12,725 yuan/ton, and the index decreased positions by 8,627 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled was 12,550 - 12,850 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled was 12,450 - 12,500 yuan/ton [50]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,600 yuan/ton, down 2,650 yuan/ton or 0.93%, and the position decreased by 2,185 lots to 72,249 lots. The average spot price of tin ingots in Shanghai was 284,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton [55]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon decreased. The spot prices of different grades in various regions remained stable [89]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon increased. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related downstream product prices had minor changes [90]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract increased by 980 to 83,400 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 36,888 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [76]. Group 3: Important Information Macro - level - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and ended quantitative tightening, but Powell's hawkish remarks on December's interest - rate cut prospects reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut from 95% to 65% [2]. - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus, with the US canceling a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspending a 24% reciprocal tariff for another year [16][24][56]. Industry - level - Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental approval for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter [2]. - Some zinc mines in Southwest, North, and Central China have production adjustments such as maintenance and resumption of production [32]. - A large alumina enterprise in North China has two roasting furnaces under maintenance due to heavy pollution weather [9]. - Some electrolytic aluminum plants overseas and in China have production cuts [17]. - Some stainless steel mills plan to cut production to relieve the supply - demand contradiction in the fourth quarter [51]. - Indonesia closed 1,000 illegal mining sites [57]. - The production of some polysilicon plants in Southwest China will be reduced in November [69]. - China will suspend the implementation of lithium - battery and its material export control measures for one year [78]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Copper - Macroscopically, the dollar strengthened due to Powell's hawkish remarks, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting was slightly disappointing. Fundamentally, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper in October is expected to decline. The consumption is weak, and the spot has turned to a discount [3][4]. Alumina - The supply and demand of alumina are still significantly in surplus. The market expects production cuts in the future, which drives the price to rebound slightly at a low level. However, the non - implementation of production cuts and the open import window suppress the rebound [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut has decreased, and the Sino - US economic and trade consensus eases the risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the domestic consumption has resilience [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the Fed's hawkish remarks increase uncertainty, but the Sino - US trade negotiation is positive. Fundamentally, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the supply of the regenerative aluminum alloy industry is shrinking, and the demand is resilient, supporting the price [26]. Zinc - Domestically, the winter storage of smelters has increased, the processing fees have decreased, and some smelters may cut production in November. The consumption is expected to weaken. Overseas, the inventory is relatively low, and the LME zinc price is strong. The domestic export window is open [33]. Lead - Some lead - storage enterprises' orders have improved, but they have reduced production due to high lead prices. The supply side may increase production as the price of lead scrap has not risen significantly. The lead price may decline [39]. Nickel - The Fed's interest - rate cut and hawkish remarks have an impact. The LME nickel inventory is slowly increasing, and the supply - demand is loose. The price is supported by cost, and it will fluctuate widely [45]. Stainless Steel - The terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and it is the end of the peak season. The supply side has production cuts, the cost support is not strong, and the price has encountered resistance [51]. Tin - The Sino - US leaders' meeting result is slightly disappointing. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the production of smelters in September decreased. The demand is slowly recovering, and the downstream procurement is cautious [57]. Industrial Silicon - The start - up rate of silicon plants in Northwest China is at a high level, and those in Southwest China will stop production at the end of the month. The demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloy is stable, and the production of polysilicon will be reduced in November. There may be inventory reduction [62]. Polysilicon - The production in Southwest China will be reduced in November. The demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. The market will be in a tight - balance state in November. The old warehouse receipts' negative impact on the market is weakening [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production has decreased, and the inventory is being reduced. The fundamentals are healthy, attracting bullish funds. The price is expected to continue rising [78]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend continues. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, but be cautious of short - term pullbacks when chasing high [5]. - Arbitrage: Hold cross - market positive arbitrage and arrange cross - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline [6]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November. The price will bottom out in the short term [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Wait and see [13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Unilateral: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate upward after the market sentiment stabilizes [19]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy price will follow the aluminum price to adjust due to macro - sentiment and then maintain a strong trend after stabilizing [27]. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - AD short - AL arbitrage [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Zinc - Unilateral: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the export volume and the commissioning of new smelters in the North [34]. - Arbitrage: Advance the operation of buying SHFE and selling LME according to the export situation [34]. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Lead - Unilateral: Partially close profitable short positions. If the resumption and increase of production of regenerative lead smelters accelerate, the lead price may fall further [40]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [40]. - Options: Exit the position by taking profit on selling out - of - the - money call options [40]. Nickel - Unilateral: Fluctuate widely [46]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [47]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [48]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Recommend short - selling on rebounds [52]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53]. Tin - Unilateral: Fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade relationship [58]. - Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Hold short - term long positions and exit near the previous high [63]. - Arbitrage: None [63]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [63]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Partially reduce long positions to take profit and buy on dips later [72]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [73]. - Options: Hold long call options [74]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Buy on dips [80]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [80]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [80].

Group 1 - The unprecedented AI boom has led to a surge in copper demand, with international copper prices reaching record highs due to concerns over global supply and hopes for a positive US-China trade agreement [1][2] - Year-to-date, LME copper prices have increased by over 27%, primarily driven by a weakening US dollar and global interest rate declines led by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [1] - Copper is widely used in various sectors such as electricity, construction, industrial machinery, transportation, and communication, making it a key indicator of global economic activity [1] Group 2 - The construction of data centers in the AI and digital transformation era is driving explosive growth in copper demand, with major companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta heavily investing in copper-dependent infrastructure [2] - Analysts from ING predict a tighter copper market supply-demand balance in 2026, with expectations of a copper supply shortage [2] - Mining giant Glencore reported a decline in copper production for the first nine months of 2025, contributing to concerns over supply constraints [2] Group 3 - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a refined copper market shortage of approximately 150,000 tons next year, with total consumption expected to be around 28.7 million tons [4] - Some analysts believe that the recent copper price surge is largely priced in due to easing global trade tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to potential investor pullback [4] - WisdomTree's commodity strategist noted that excessive speculative bets in the futures market could lead to significant price corrections, as seen in other metal markets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between the US and Chinese leaders has influenced the Hong Kong stock market, which experienced fluctuations throughout the trading day, with significant net buying from mainland investors. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices in Hong Kong showed a trend of initial decline followed by recovery, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.24%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.31%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.68% [1] - Net buying from mainland investors exceeded 11 billion HKD, indicating strong interest in the market [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Large technology stocks exhibited mixed performance, with Meituan up 2.4%, Tencent up approximately 1%, while Baidu and Xiaomi fell nearly 3% and 2% respectively [1] - The copper price reached a new high, and spot gold prices increased, leading to a rise in copper and gold stocks, with Zijin Mining International up over 8% and China Nonferrous Mining up over 7% [1] - The lithium battery sector performed strongly, with Ganfeng Lithium's earnings exceeding expectations, resulting in a nearly 15% increase, alongside strong performances from China Innovation Aviation and Tianqi Lithium [1] - Coal stocks, port and shipping stocks, photovoltaic stocks, nuclear power stocks, home appliance stocks, and building materials and cement stocks were mostly active [1] Group 3: Weakness in Certain Sectors - Fitch Ratings indicated that the mainland real estate market has not yet bottomed out, predicting a continued decline in sales through 2026, leading to weakness in property stocks [1] - Consumer-related stocks, including Apple concept stocks, sports goods stocks, beer stocks, and restaurant stocks, were mostly sluggish [1]

Market Overview - The meeting between the Chinese and U.S. leaders has boosted market sentiment, leading to a collective rise in Hong Kong's three major indices, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.54%, the National Index up by 0.53%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.31% [1] Company Performance - Major technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Meituan rising by 4% and Tencent increasing by 2.4%, while Baidu, Xiaomi, and Kuaishou experienced declines [1] - ZTE Corporation's stock fell over 9% following its earnings report, marking it as the weakest performer in the telecommunications equipment sector [1] Sector Performance - The copper price reached a new high, and spot gold prices increased, leading to a rise in copper and gold stocks, which led the gains in the non-ferrous metal sector [1] - Coal, shipping, and photovoltaic stocks generally performed well, while the biopharmaceutical, domestic real estate, and gaming sectors were broadly sluggish [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks have shown a recovery in early trading, with significant gains for several companies in the sector [1] Company Summaries - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358.HK) increased by 6.4%, reaching HKD 34.92 [1] - China Nonferrous Mining Co., Ltd. (01258.HK) rose by 4.99%, trading at HKD 14.72 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (03993.HK) saw a gain of 3.54%, priced at HKD 17.22 [1] - Minmetals Resources Ltd. (01208.HK) experienced a 3.06% increase, with shares at HKD 7.07 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks are experiencing a rebound, driven by a significant increase in LME copper prices due to ongoing supply shortages from mines [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Jiangxi Copper Co. (00358) rose by 6.4% to HKD 34.92 - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) increased by 4.99% to HKD 14.72 - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) gained 3.54% to HKD 17.22 - Minmetals Resources (01208) climbed 3.06% to HKD 7.07 [1] Group 2: Price Trends - LME copper prices reached a historical high of USD 11,146 per ton on Wednesday due to persistent supply shortages [1] - Citigroup forecasts that copper prices will reach USD 12,000 per ton in the first half of next year, with some institutions suggesting this milestone may be achieved even sooner [1] Group 3: Economic Factors - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut [1] - This potential rate cut is seen as a catalyst for easing US-China trade tensions [1] - Huafu Securities indicates that the ongoing expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts will support copper prices in the short term, while long-term prospects remain positive due to increased investment and consumption [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks are experiencing a rebound, driven by a significant increase in LME copper prices due to ongoing supply shortages from mines [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Jiangxi Copper Co. (00358) rose by 6.4% to HKD 34.92 - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) increased by 4.99% to HKD 14.72 - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) gained 3.54% to HKD 17.22 - Minmetals Resources (01208) saw a rise of 3.06% to HKD 7.07 [1] Group 2: Price Trends - LME copper price reached a historical high of USD 11,146 per ton, attributed to persistent supply shortages [1] - Citigroup forecasts copper prices to reach USD 12,000 per ton in the first half of next year, with some institutions suggesting this milestone may be achieved sooner [1] Group 3: Economic Factors - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut [1] - This potential rate cut may provide a catalyst for easing US-China trade tensions [1] - Huafu Securities indicates that the expectation of continued Fed rate cuts supports copper prices in the short term, while long-term prospects remain positive due to potential inflation from fiscal policies [1]