Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [4] Core Insights - The copper mining industry is experiencing significant supply disruptions, leading to a clear pattern of scarce incremental production for the year [14][15] - The total production guidance for the ten major copper mining companies is projected to be 9.759 million tons for 2025, which represents a decrease of 57,000 tons compared to the actual production in 2024 [14][17] - Major companies are struggling to meet their production guidance, with most achieving less than 50% of their annual targets by mid-2025 [15] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Supply Disruptions - The report tracks ten major copper mining companies, including Freeport, Codelco, BHP, and others, highlighting frequent supply disruptions in the first half of 2025 [13][14] - The average production for these companies in Q2 2025 increased by 5% quarter-on-quarter but decreased by 2% year-on-year [14][16] 2. Company-Specific Updates Freeport - Freeport's production guidance has been adjusted downwards due to challenges at the Grasberg mine, with a new target of 1.79 million tons for the year [15][18] - The company has a rich asset portfolio with significant copper, gold, and molybdenum reserves [18] Codelco - Codelco's production recovery efforts are hindered by mining accidents, affecting its output and guidance [15] BHP - BHP reported a slight increase in copper production in Q2 2025, but its long-term production guidance indicates a decline in ore grades [15][17] Glencore - Glencore's copper production is under pressure, with expectations of continued declines in 2025 [15] Southern Copper - Southern Copper's production remains stable, with expected increases primarily in the long term [15] First Quantum - First Quantum faces challenges in production recovery, particularly at its Cobre Panama mine [15] Anglo American - Anglo American's production is under pressure due to declining ore grades, impacting overall output [15] Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi underground mine is expected to contribute significantly to future production, although current output is still being ramped up [15] Antofagasta - Antofagasta is expanding its operations to mitigate the impact of declining ore grades [15] Teck Resources - Teck Resources has adjusted its production guidance downward due to limitations at its QB2 project [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September continues to increase, with the US dollar fluctuating at a low level, boosting the non - ferrous metals market. The domestic copper inventory remains low, and the smelter processing fees are gradually stabilizing and rebounding. The Shanghai copper market is generally strong in the short term but still maintains a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for market drivers [2][59][60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Fundamental Information - US: In July, the overall consumer price index (CPI) was lower than market expectations. The CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, slowing down from 0.3% in June, and the year - on - year increase was 2.7%, the same as last month. After the news was announced, the US dollar weakened, and the market raised the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September to over 96%. The ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48 in July, and the Markit manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in 2025 [5]. - China: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index decreased by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. The CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the year - on - year decrease remaining at 3.6% [8]. Recent Developments in Copper Mining Disturbances - Codelco in Chile is conducting a full - scale investigation after a mine accident. The accident caused six deaths, making it the most serious mine accident in Chile in decades [11]. - Chifeng Gold's Laos Saiban SND gold - copper mine project completed its first - stage resource exploration. As of June 30, 2025, the proven mineral resource volume was 131.5 million tons, with a gold equivalent grade of 0.81 g/t and a gold equivalent metal volume of about 106.9 tons [12]. Analysis of LME Copper/Shanghai Copper Prices - This week, copper prices fluctuated upward. As of August 12, the highest price of Shanghai copper was 79,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,050 yuan/ton, and the weekly amplitude was 1.43%. The highest price of LME copper was 9,865 yuan/ton, the lowest was 9,622.5 yuan/ton, and the weekly amplitude was 2.52% [13]. Copper Supply Side - In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 17.314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 ports in China increased by 0.77 million tons to 428,700 tons [23]. - As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 US dollars/dry ton, and the RC was - 3.79 US cents/pound, showing a stable and upward trend. The long - term contracts of smelters are profitable, while the spot contracts are still at a loss, but the production enthusiasm of smelters is acceptable [25]. - In July, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 7.7673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.82%. In July, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.113 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [31]. Copper Inventory Data - After the copper tariff was implemented, the LME copper inventory started to increase significantly. As of August 8, the LME copper inventory was 155,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.95% and a month - on - month increase of 45.48%. The inventory accumulation speed of COMEX slowed down, with the inventory at 264,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.72% and a month - on - month increase of 18.23%. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not significantly increased, supporting the domestic copper price to some extent. The bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong increased slightly [38]. Downstream Terminal Demand - In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. The utilization rate was lower than expected, and some enterprises reduced or stopped production. The capacity utilization rate of copper tube enterprises showed a downward trend, and the export volume decreased due to the 50% tariff on US copper products [47]. - From January to June, the investment in power grid projects reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, and the investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The real estate industry remained weak, with a year - on - year decline in various indicators such as construction area and new construction area [53]. - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a high level in the same period of history. The consumption of refined copper in China is expected to increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026 [56].

Financial Performance - MMG achieved record financial results in the first half of 2025, with Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) of US$566 million, a 612% increase year-on-year[18] - EBITDA increased by 98% year-on-year to US$1,540 million[18] - Revenue increased by 47% to US$2,817 million in 1H 2025 compared to US$1,918 million in 1H 2024[47] - The gearing ratio decreased to 33%, down from 41% at the end of 2024[18] Production and Operations - Copper production increased significantly, with contained metal produced rising to 259kt in 1H 2025, a 64% increase compared to 158kt in 1H 2024[21] - Zinc production saw a slight decrease of 1%, with 108kt produced in 1H 2025 compared to 110kt in 1H 2024[21] - Revenue from copper sales increased to 78% of total revenue in 1H 2025, up from 72% in 1H 2024[22, 23] - Las Bambas copper production reached 211kt in 1H 2025, driven by higher ore milled grades[25, 27] - Khoemacau copper production increased to 22kt in 1H 2025, a 121% increase compared to 1H 2024[60] Strategy and Outlook - MMG is committed to debt reduction, with a focus on enhanced financial strength[73, 75] - The company is investing in growth and capacity expansion projects, including Las Bambas, Kinsevere, and Khoemacau[80, 81] - MMG is pursuing a nickel acquisition with an upfront cash consideration of US$350 million[82]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The imposition of additional tariffs may drive up inflation at the US consumer end and suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. However, the decline in the operating capacity of downstream processing has led to a week - on - week decrease in the domestic weekly social inventory of electrolytic copper, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai copper futures active contract was 79,020 yuan, up 530 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 70,041 lots, an increase of 27,135 lots, and the open interest was 160,884 lots, an increase of 3,992 lots. The inventory was 23,275 tons, up 2,003 tons. The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 79,150 yuan, up 620 yuan, and the basis was 130 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premium and discount of electrolytic copper in different regions showed different trends. In Guangzhou, it was - 20 yuan, up 20 yuan; in North China, it remained - 120 yuan; in East China, it was 25 yuan, up 30 yuan. The spread between near - month and far - month contracts also changed, with the spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous - one being 0 yuan, up 30 yuan; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - one and Shanghai copper continuous - two being - 30 yuan, down 50 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 11, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,726.5 US dollars, down 41.5 US dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a significant decrease of 155,700 tons. The spreads of LME copper futures contracts also changed, with the 0 - 3 - month contract spread being - 83.25 US dollars, down 13.7 US dollars, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread being - 148.59 US dollars, down 7.1 US dollars. The ratio of Shanghai - London copper price was 8.1242, up 0.09 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the copper futures active contract was 4.4445 US dollars, up 0.03 US dollars, and the total inventory was 265,196 tons, up 1,900 tons [2]. Important News - **Production Adjustments**: Multiple copper mines around the world have adjusted their production expectations. Teck Resources lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in 2025; Norilsk Nickel reduced its 2025 copper production forecast from 353,000 - 373,000 tons to 343,000 - 355,000 tons; Anglo Asian Mining's Denir11 copper mine started trial production, with an expected copper concentrate production of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons in 2026 and later; Zijin Mining's Kamoa - Kakula copper mine's planned mineral copper production in 2025 was reduced from 520,000 - 580,000 tons to 370,000 - 420,000 tons [2]. - **Mine Incidents**: Newmont's Red Chris copper mine in Canada suspended operations due to a collapse in the non - production project's underground access; Shanxi Yuncheng Yuanqu County Wulong Industrial's Luojiahe copper mine had a fume poisoning accident resulting in three deaths; Hudbay Minerals suspended the operation and exploration of the Snow Lake due to a wildfire in northern Manitoba, Canada [2]. - **Mine Resumptions and New Projects**: The unaffected area of Codelco's El Teniente copper mine in Chile resumed operations; the west side of Zijin Mining's Kamoa - Kakula copper mine resumed production in early June; the second - phase 160,000 - ton capacity of Jiangxi Copper's Mirador copper mine in Ecuador may be put into production in the second half of 2025; the second - phase 200,000 - ton - per - day expansion project of Julong Copper Mine may be completed by the end of 2025; the third - phase of Western Mining's Wanglong Copper Mine may increase the production scale from 1,000 tons to 3,000 tons per year, with an expected copper production of 180,000 - 200,000 tons per year; ACC Metals' Cediktene polymetallic mine's copper sulfide ore expansion project will be put into production in the first quarter of 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons; Vale's Bacalhau copper mine project in Brazil obtained an environmental permit in June and may start production in the first half of 2028 [2]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,300 - 9,500 and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and the support level around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance level around 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - Copper prices are expected to be supported by the potential implementation of US interest rate cuts within the year, and the spot market is not expected to be a drag. Therefore, it is recommended to buy copper on dips [11] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Copper prices rose. The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 79,020. Weak US employment data led Fed officials to turn dovish, and the market is betting on a 0.5 - percentage - point interest rate cut this year. The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 has boosted market risk appetite [11] - In the spot market, the price of electrolytic copper increased by 620 to 79,150, and the spot premium rose 30 to 150. As the delivery approaches, domestic spot supply is tight, and the spot premium remains high. Social inventories decreased slightly by 0.04 million tons compared to last Thursday. The premiums of US - dollar copper bills of lading and warehouse receipts both declined, and the import loss narrowed to around 100, with the import window approaching opening. It is expected that the tight domestic spot supply will gradually ease with the import supplement [11] - Codelco partially restarted the El Teniente copper mine, and the disruption at the mine end has eased [11] 2. Industry News - Codelco has obtained approval from the mining regulatory agency to partially restart 10 operating areas of the El Teniente copper mine, while four areas near the July 31 collapse site will remain closed [12] - The SMM copper terminal PMI in July was 47.81%, and it is expected to drop to 47.49% in August. The production index and new order index both decreased month - on - month, the product inventory index increased slightly, indicating a further contraction in production activities and market demand and increasing inventory pressure [12] - The Central Bank of Chile reported that Chile's copper export value in July was $3.99 billion, a 0.4% decrease from the same period last year, and the trade deficit in that month was $62 million [12] - In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.95%. From January to July, China's cumulative imports of copper ore and concentrates were 17.314 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.04% [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro Aspects**: Recent macroeconomic game has intensified, with tariff and trade frictions between the US and Japan, and the US and India escalating. Market risk aversion has increased, and changes in the number of senior Fed officials have affected the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeds 90%, and the US dollar index is under pressure to oscillate at a low level, supporting the copper price. After the Russia-Ukraine talks last Friday, the Russia-Ukraine conflict may turn for the better, leading to a stronger copper price. However, the current domestic anti-involution measures have no new drivers, and the positive impact on the copper price is limited. Attention should still be paid to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [2][4]. - **Supply Aspects**: The maintenance of a smelter in Indonesia has been extended until mid-August. More copper concentrates have flowed into other countries. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$37.98 per dry ton, and the refining charge (RC) was -3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and recover. The increase in copper concentrate imports has provided smelters with abundant raw materials. Currently, copper production has not declined. Long-term contract orders are profitable, while spot orders are still at a loss. Smelters' production enthusiasm is currently acceptable. Previously maintained smelters are gradually resuming operations, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [2][4]. - **Demand Aspects**: Currently, it is the hot and rainy season, and the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has dampened the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, resulting in lukewarm overall demand and a cold trading sentiment. The performance of the terminal power grid remains good, but the construction and real estate sectors still have a negative impact. Since the implementation of copper tariffs, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not shown a significant increase, which has supported the domestic copper price to some extent [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - **US Manufacturing PMI**: In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49, marking the fastest contraction rate in the past nine months, dragged down by continuous order reduction and intensified employment decline. The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, lower than the previous month and the first time it fell below the boom-bust line since 2025 [9]. - **China's Economic Indicators**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, a 0.4 and 0.5 percentage point decrease from the previous month. The national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, turning from a decline to an increase, and remained flat year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, remaining the same as the previous month [15]. 3.2 Copper Price Trends - **Shanghai Copper**: Last week, Shanghai copper showed an overall oscillating and strengthening trend. The highest price of the week was 78,610 yuan per ton, the lowest was 78,030 yuan per ton, the weekly amplitude was 0.74%, and the interval increase was 0.11% [18]. - **LME Copper**: As of August 8, the weekly change rate of LME copper was +1.13%, closing at $9,700 per ton. The LME copper spot discount weakened, and the inventory accumulation trend of the exchange's copper inventory continued. The copper resources in the market were relatively more abundant than before the implementation of tariffs, resulting in a weaker spot discount [33]. 3.3 Copper Market News - **Chilean Copper Mine Accident**: On August 5, news reported that Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, was facing one of the most severe safety challenges in its history. After several days of emergency rescue, rescuers found the body of the last missing miner at the El Teniente mine, and all five miners trapped in the tunnel collapse accident on Thursday had died. This accident, which caused six deaths, was the most serious mine accident in Chile in decades and prompted the company to launch a comprehensive investigation [21]. - **Chifeng Gold's Project**: On August 7, Chifeng Gold (600988.SH) announced that its subsidiary's Laos Saiban SND gold-copper mine project had completed the first-phase resource exploration. According to the resource estimation report issued by SRK China based on the JORC standard, as of June 30, 2025, the project (porphyry gold-copper deposit) had proven mineral resources of 131.5 million tons, with a gold equivalent grade of 0.81 grams per ton and a gold equivalent metal volume of approximately 1.069 million tons. Drilling is planned to resume after the rainy season to upgrade the resource reserves [22]. 3.4 Copper Supply - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 428,700 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from the previous week [38]. - **Smelter Fees**: As of August 8, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$37.98 per dry ton, and the refining charge (RC) was -3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and recover. With the increase in copper concentrate imports, smelters have abundant raw materials, and currently, copper production has not declined. On the morning of June 27, 2025, the mid-year negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters set the TC/RC at $0 per dry ton and 0 cents per pound. Long-term contract orders are profitable, while spot orders are still at a loss. Smelters' production enthusiasm is currently acceptable [42]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In July, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 39,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 7.7673 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%. Previously maintained smelters are gradually resuming operations, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August. In July, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 480,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 3.113 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [46][47]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: In June 2025, scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, with a relatively high year-on-year import volume, exceeding market expectations. The increase in the price difference between refined and scrap copper has led to a shortage of scrap copper supply, and more scrap copper rod enterprises have shut down their production facilities. Currently, affected by copper tariffs, there is a mismatch in the global scrap copper supply and demand, which may lead to a continued decrease in domestic scrap copper imports in the future [52]. 3.5 Copper Demand - **Apparent Demand**: As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a high level in the same period of history. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. China's refined copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026. Currently, due to the hot and rainy season, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has dampened the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, resulting in lukewarm overall demand and a cold trading sentiment. The performance of the terminal power grid remains good. From January to June 2025, China's power grid infrastructure investment reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, and power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The State Grid plans to invest more than 650 billion yuan this year, a year-on-year increase of +8% [57]. - **Copper Products**: In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The start-up rate was lower than expected, and downstream enterprises were cautious in taking delivery. Refined copper rod enterprises have reduced or stopped production, and enterprises have no intention to stockpile, keeping the inventory level low. Currently, it is the off-season, and downstream enterprises are not willing to accept high copper prices, resulting in an unexpected reduction in production by refined copper rod enterprises. The start-up rate of copper tube enterprises has shown a downward trend, with insufficient follow-up of downstream orders. With copper prices at a high level, the start-up rate has continued to decline. The production of terminal household appliances such as air conditioners is not high, and due to the 50% tariff on copper products imposed by the US, the export volume has decreased [62]. - **Power Grid Engineering**: From January to June, the power grid project investment reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, reaching the highest level in the same period in history. From January to June, the power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% year-on-year respectively. The power grid project remains a downstream rigid demand for copper, supporting the copper price [66]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: From January to June, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.4124 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.4%. The new construction area of houses was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0%. Among them, the new construction area of residential houses was 222.88 million square meters, a decrease of 19.6%. The completed area of houses was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8%. Among them, the completed area of residential houses was 162.66 million square meters, a decrease of 15.5%. The real estate market continues to be weak [71]. - **Automobile and New Energy Automobile Industry**: In June, automobile production and sales reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, a month-on-month increase of 5.5% and 8.1% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 11.4% and 13.8% respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% and 26.7% respectively. The sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.8% of the total sales volume of new vehicles [76]. 3.6 Copper Inventory - **Global Exchanges**: After the implementation of copper tariffs, the siphon effect of US copper has ended, and the LME copper inventory has started to accumulate significantly. As of August 8, the LME copper inventory was 155,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9.95% and a month-on-month increase of 45.48%. The inventory accumulation rate of COMEX has slowed down, and the COMEX copper inventory was 264,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.72% and a month-on-month increase of 18.23% [83]. - **Domestic Inventory**: On August 7, the total spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 80,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the 31st, and a decrease of 300 tons from the 4th. The change in the bonded area inventory was limited. During the week, the export goods from smelters did not enter the warehouse, and the imported goods arriving at the port were directly cleared and imported into the domestic market, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory. Since the implementation of copper tariffs, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not shown a significant increase, which has supported the domestic copper price to some extent [87].

格隆汇8月11日丨巴里克矿业今天发布2025年第二季度财报，营收36.8亿美元，较上季度增长18%。净 利润8.11亿美元，较上季度增长71%。每股收益0.47美元，上季度0.27美元。本季度黄金销量77万盎 司，较上季度增长3%；铜销量5.4万吨，较上季度增长6%。本季度回购股票价值为2.68亿美元，上季度 为1.43亿美元。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices stabilized and rebounded due to the significant increase in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, the normalization of the global copper supply chain after the premium issue of US copper tariffs subsided, and the clear tone of China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies boosting the demand in the non - ferrous metal market. The fact that major non - US economies did not retaliate against the US also slightly improved the global economic growth outlook. Fundamentally, the tight balance of global refined copper persists, with weak inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and the near - month structure turning to flat water [2][8]. - Overall, after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, major non - US economies did not retaliate against the US. The market is optimistic about the Fed's rate cut in September. China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies will boost the non - ferrous metal market demand and support the domestic economic base. Both internal and external macro factors are favorable for copper prices. Fundamentally, overseas mine supply remains tight, domestic inventory accumulation during the off - season is limited, and the release of global refined copper production capacity is slow. Copper prices are expected to enter a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - Price Changes: From August 1st to August 8th, LME copper rose from $9,633/ton to $9,768/ton, a 1.40% increase; COMEX copper rose from 444.3 cents/pound to 448.5 cents/pound, a 0.95% increase; SHFE copper rose from 78,400 yuan/ton to 78,490 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase; international copper rose from 69,530 yuan/ton to 69,650 yuan/ton, a 0.17% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.14 to 8.04, and the LME spot premium/discount decreased from - $49.25/ton to - $69.55/ton, a 41.22% change. The Shanghai spot premium/discount decreased from 175 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Changes: As of August 8th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai Bonded Area increased to 577,405 tons, a 5.18% increase from August 1st. LME inventory increased by 14,100 tons (9.95%), COMEX inventory increased by 4,459 short tons (1.72%), SHFE inventory increased by 9,390 tons (12.95%), and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory increased by 500 tons (0.67%) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Price Rebound Reasons: The significant increase in the Fed's rate - cut expectation in September, the normalization of the global copper supply chain, China's policies boosting demand, and the improved global economic growth outlook due to no retaliation from major economies against the US all contributed to the copper price rebound. Fundamentally, the tight balance of global refined copper persists, with weak domestic inventory accumulation during the off - season [8]. - Inventory Situation: As of August 8th, the total global inventory increased to 577,400 tons. LME copper inventory increase led to the LME0 - 3 turning to a contango structure, and the cancelled warrant ratio slightly decreased to 7.1%. SHFE inventory increased by 9,000 tons, and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory was basically flat. The Yangshan copper bill of lading premium fell to around $50. Overseas supplies flowed back to LME Asian warehouses and some entered China, increasing imports. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.04 due to the short - term depreciation of the US dollar after the rate - cut expectation increased [8]. - Macroeconomic Situation: In the US, inflation expectations increased, credit access became more difficult, but the employment outlook improved. Trump nominated a new Fed governor who is expected to be dovish. India may not retaliate against US tariffs. Fed official Kashkari believes that the US economy is slowing and rate cuts may be appropriate, with a 93.4% probability of a rate cut in September according to CME. The US service industry index showed signs of stagnation, and the risk of stagflation is rising. In China, exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year (in US dollars), and the total import and export value in the first seven months increased by 3.5% year - on - year, with high - tech product trade growing strongly [9]. - Supply and Demand Situation: Overseas, Codelco's Chilean mine has not restarted, and the Panama project may not resume production this year. Six overseas mining companies have lowered their production targets. In China, the production of large and medium - sized smelters was high in July but is expected to decline slightly in August. In terms of demand, power grid investment weakened, the开工 rate of wire and cable enterprises decreased, the consumption of the wind and solar industries is expected to decline, and the new energy vehicle market is in the off - season but still has year - on - year growth. Overall, domestic demand decreased slightly month - on - month but remained resilient year - on - year, and the market maintained a tight balance [10]. 3. Industry News - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine earthquake may be caused by mining activities. The company has applied to restart part of the mine and is investigating the cause. If the mine remains closed, it will exacerbate the global copper supply shortage and increase Codelco's financial pressure. Restarting the mine requires convincing regulators and unions of the stability of the entire underground operation area [12]. - Teck Resources' Q2 2025 copper production was 109,000 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease and a 2.8% quarter - on - quarter increase. Antamina's production decreased due to an accident and lower ore treatment volume, while Highland Valley Copper's production increased. Antamina's 2025 copper production is expected to be between 80,000 - 90,000 tons. Quebrada Blanca's Q2 production was 52,700 tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase and a 24.6% quarter - on - quarter increase. The QB port facility's loading machine malfunction is expected to last until H1 2026, and production is not expected to be affected. QBII's 2025 copper production guidance is revised down to 210,000 - 230,000 tons [13]. - The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China decreased slightly last week due to the decline in the spot premium of domestic copper and weak restocking by cable enterprises in the off - season. The processing fees in different regions vary. The price of 8mm T3 low - oxygen copper rods in South and Southwest China increased by $50 - 100/ton compared with last week. The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises is expected to be under slight pressure in mid - August [14][15]. 4. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and SHFE, and other related data such as basis, premium, and TC [16][18][21][22][26][27][29][32][35][38]

【車安资讯】 智利Codelco表示BI Teniente铜矿7月31日因发生坍塌而暂停开采，Teck Resources二季度下调智利Quebrada Blanca钢矿25年预期生产量， | | Mewnoort旗下加拿大Red Chris 铜矿(25年预期生产量为2万金属吨)的非生产性项目地下作业区通道发生明岛事故而暂停运营，盎格鲁亚洲矿业 | | --- | --- | | | (Anglo Asian Mining)旗下Denirli钢矿开始试生产使25年钢精矿生产量为4000吨而26年及以后钢精矿生产量将增至1.5万吨，俄罗斯Monnickel | | | 将25年铜生产量由35. 3-37. 3万吨下调至34.3-35. 5万吨，山西运城垣曲县五龙突业旗下洛家河铜矿发生炮烟中毒事故致三人死亡，五矿资源加00 | | | 下Las Banbas（2025年预计生产量38万金属吨）和Budbar旗下Cons tancia（2025年预计生产量8-9. 7万金属吨）因非正规矿工暂停封路坑议至7月 | | | 18日，加拿大Manitoba北部发生野火使Hudbay Minerals已经暂停Show La ...

智利Codelco表示BI Teniente铜矿7月31日因发生坍塌而暂停开采，Teck Resources二季度下调智利Quebrada Blanca钢矿25年预期生产量， | | Mewnoort旗下加拿大Red Chris 铜矿(25年预期生产量为2万金属吨)的非生产性项目地下作业区通道发生明岛事故而暂停运营，盎格鲁亚洲矿业 | | --- | --- | | | (Anglo Asian Mining)旗下Denirli钢矿开始试生产使25年钢精矿生产量为4000吨而26年及以后钢精矿生产量将增至1.5万吨，俄罗斯Monnickel | | | 将25年铜生产量由35. 3-37. 3万吨下调至34.3-35. 5万吨，山西运城垣曲县五龙突业旗下洛家河铜矿发生炮烟中毒事故致三人死亡，五矿资源加00 | | | 下Las Banbas（2025年预计生产量38万金属吨）和Budbar旗下Cons tancia（2025年预计生产量8-9. 7万金属吨）因非正规矿工暂停封路坑议至7月 | | | 18日，加拿大Manitoba北部发生野火使Hudbay Minerals已经暂停Show Lake运营和勘探 ...