1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report Currently, downstream consumption is declining due to holiday effects, and the short - term operating rates of copper products and wire and cable may still face pressure. However, the supply at the mine end is still highly disrupted. The continuously low TC price and the strong performance of silver drive up the copper price. Therefore, for copper, it is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On June 11, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 79,150 yuan/ton and closed at 79,290 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,740 yuan/ton and closed at 78,570 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the afternoon close of the previous day [1] Spot Situation Near the delivery date, the monthly spread did not improve significantly. Sellers quoted prices above par and were reluctant to sell at a discount. The price difference between brands of flat - water copper converged. The procurement and sales sentiment improved. In the latter half of the week, the supply of flat - water copper was not expected to be loose. Downstream buyers pressured prices due to high copper prices, while sellers were reluctant to sell below par. Some Russian copper was expected to arrive at the end of the week, and downstream buyers were likely to purchase at low prices [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: US May CPI data were all lower than expected, with core CPI only rising 0.1%. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points. Iran's defense minister said Iran would attack US military bases in the region if the nuclear negotiations failed. The possibility of the sixth - round Iran - US nuclear negotiations over the weekend was decreasing. The EU hoped to extend the trade negotiation time, and the Trump administration was willing to extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period if there was "sincerity" in the negotiations [3] - **Mine End**: An American mining project in Nevada attracted the attention of the US Export - Import Bank, which intended to provide $896 million to support a company in building a copper - molybdenum mine. In April 2025, Codelco's copper production increased by 20.5% year - on - year to 114,600 tons; Escondida's copper production increased by 31% year - on - year to 128,400 tons; Collahuasi's copper production decreased by 13.5% year - on - year to 36,600 tons [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In May, LME's Russian copper inventory decreased by 27,350 tons, including 14,800 tons of "Class 2" Russian copper. The overall LME copper market inventory dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years [5] - **Consumption**: From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 74.87%, 1.03 percentage points lower than the previous week and 2.27 percentage points lower than market expectations. The copper cable industry's operating rate was 76.08%, down 2.59 percentage points week - on - week. Some enterprises' new orders decreased by about 10% month - on - month. From January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons to 119,450 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 373 tons to 33,373 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 149,500 tons, a change of 700 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.12） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：78700-81000 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，世行在报告中预计， 今年发达经济体经济将增长 1.2%，比此前预测低 0.5 个百分点。其中，将美国经济增速从此前的 2.3%大幅下调至 1.4%。欧元区和日本的经 济增速均被下调至 0.7%。 2、供给方面，2025 年 4 月份智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)铜产量同比增加 20.5%至 11.46 万吨，得益于部分矿山技改完成。必和必拓旗下的 Escondida 铜矿 4 月份铜产量同比 增长 31%至 12.84 万吨，这反映高品位矿石的开采效率提升。由嘉能可和英美资源集团联 合经营的另一座大型铜矿 Collahuasi4 月份铜产量同比下降 13.5%至 3.66 万吨，归因于矿石 品位下降或运营调整。全球铜精矿和废铜短期的格局持续。 3、需求方面，5 月，新能源汽车表现尤为突出，单月销量达 130.7 万辆，同比增长 36.9%。电解铜现货市场方面，重庆地区下游消费进入淡季，叠加 ...

智通财经6月11日电，智利国家铜业公司称，4月铜产量同比增长20.5%，达到114600吨。 ...

智利国家铜业公司称，4月铜产量同比增长20.5%，达到11.46万吨。(智通财经) ...

智利国家铜业公司：4月铜产量同比增长20.5%，达到114600吨。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [7] Core Insights - The analysis focuses on Freeport (FCX) and Zijin Mining, both leading companies in the copper industry, but at different stages of development. Zijin is characterized as a rapidly growing enterprise with a strong acquisition culture, cost-reduction strategies, and core technology development, while FCX has reached a more mature stage after multiple acquisitions and now emphasizes maximizing existing asset utilization and resilience against cyclical industry fluctuations [1][11] Summary by Sections 1. Selection of Freeport and Zijin Mining as Analysis Targets - Both Freeport and Zijin Mining are recognized as rapidly growing copper mining leaders, with global copper production rankings of 2nd and 4th respectively in 2024. Their compound annual growth rates (CAGR) from 2005 to 2024 are 6% for FCX and 23% for Zijin [18] 2. Mergers and Acquisitions Forge Mining Giants - Freeport primarily focuses on acquiring companies, especially during periods of strong risk management, while Zijin initially targeted single mine acquisitions based on cost-effectiveness, often capitalizing on counter-cyclical opportunities [3][4] - Zijin's acquisitions are mainly financed through self-raised funds, while Freeport's larger acquisitions typically involve a combination of equity and cash [3][4] 3. Maturity Phase - After acquiring Phelps Dodge, FCX's copper asset scale ranks among the top globally, leading to a decrease in acquisition enthusiasm and a shift towards new technology applications and maximizing existing resource utilization [4] 4. Commonalities and Distinctions in Development - Both companies share a history of strong cash flow, capital market financing, technological innovation, management transformation, and cost reduction as key growth drivers [5] 5. Acquisition Wisdom Across Cycles - The report discusses reasons why original owners sell their assets, including poor risk management, market neglect, and financial needs. It also highlights factors contributing to acquisition failures, such as inadequate understanding of local cultures and challenges in bringing greenfield projects to production [6] 6. Historical Performance and Financial Metrics - Freeport and Zijin Mining have shown significant growth in copper production and profitability, with Zijin's revenue CAGR reaching 20% and net profit CAGR at 15% from 2008 to 2024, while Freeport's revenue CAGR stands at 9% during the same period [19][20]

智利国家铜业公司：暂未收到地震造成矿场损毁或人员受伤的报告。 ...

智通财经6月7日电，智利国家铜业公司称暂未收到地震造成矿场损毁或人员受伤的报告。 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 该矿区第一季度产铜 770 万磅，占公司总产量的 7.2%；同时暂停 Flin Flon 和 Snow Lake 地区的勘探活动。公司认为两个地区的基础设施受损风险较低， 该公司称，将持续监控局势，一旦条件允许，确保安全恢复全面运营。 沪铜窄幅震荡，总持仓下降 4040 手至 55.2 万手，盘面价差结构继续缩窄，06-07 缩窄至 100,07-08 缩窄至 130，现货升水也跌至 90，06 合约交割临近以及需求不 佳令期现价差收窄，不过 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put @ 76,000 yuan/ton [6] Core Viewpoints - The current copper concentrate processing fee remains low, and negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas mines are ongoing. With an accident at the Kamoa Copper Mine this month, it's unlikely that the processing fee will rise significantly immediately. On the demand side, although current data is relatively favorable, there are concerns about whether demand can be maintained in the second half of the year. Overall, given the relatively stable outlook for the power sector, the probability of a significant weakening in demand is low. Therefore, it's recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying on dips for copper, with a buying range of 76,000 - 76,500 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 4, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 77,910 yuan/ton and closed at 78,200 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,050 yuan/ton and closed at 78,140 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - Brand spreads continued to widen. Premium copper like Jinchuan and Guixi was in short supply, with morning premiums of 200 - 250 yuan/ton. Xiangguang, Lufang, JCC, and Polish large - plate copper had premiums of 180 - 200 yuan/ton and were hard to find. Imported and domestic medium - grade copper initially had premiums of 70 - 100 yuan/ton, but as market transactions weakened, the premium dropped to 30 - 50 yuan/ton. With the narrowing of the monthly spread, premiums are expected to decline further [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: In May, the ADP employment number increased by 37,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The US May ISM non - manufacturing index dropped to 49.9, contracting for the first time in nearly a year. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates and advocated canceling the debt ceiling. His tax bill will increase the US deficit by $2.4 trillion in 10 years [3]. - **Mine End**: After the suspension of underground mining at the Kakula Mine on May 20, 2025, the company plans to restart the western area's underground mining in late June, depending on the progress of pumping. An evaluation result and restart plan for the western and eastern areas will be announced next week [3]. - **Smelting and Imports**: The spot trading volume of electrolytic copper was 25,800 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons (8.54% month - on - month) from the previous trading day. Transactions were mainly for low - priced goods [4]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, the planned investment in the domestic power grid is 650 billion yuan, with 140.8 billion yuan completed in the first four months, a 14.6% year - on - year increase. The real estate industry is in a slump, with investment, new construction, and completion areas decreasing. The automotive industry is divided, with traditional vehicle production down 4.6% and new energy vehicle production up 48%. The home appliance industry had good performance in 2024 but has high export dependence. The electronics field may be a new highlight, with AI driving potential growth in integrated circuit demand. Overall, annual copper terminal demand need not be overly pessimistic [4]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,600 tons to 141,350 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 529 tons to 31,933 tons. On June 3, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 153,000 tons, a change of 14,300 tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - For copper, it's recommended to be cautiously bullish, with a buying range of 76,000 - 76,500 yuan/ton. Arbitrage is on hold, and the option strategy is short put @ 76,000 yuan/ton [6]