Core Viewpoint - Cocoa prices in New York continued to decline following a 12% drop, driven by the retreat of buying momentum from index rebalancing, leading to sell-offs by exporters and speculators [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Cocoa prices experienced their largest drop since July 2024, with futures closing significantly lower as exporters locked in favorable prices amid recent buying [1] - On Monday, cocoa prices fell by 2.4% before recovering some losses, indicating high volatility in the market [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rebalancing of commodity indices had previously supported cocoa prices for several weeks due to expectations of increased buying [1] - Speculative investors had built up long positions before the index rebalancing, but the subsequent rapid liquidation of these positions triggered a wave of selling [1] Group 3: Volatility Indicators - The recent price fluctuations have pushed the 60-day historical volatility index to its highest level in nearly nine months, reflecting increased market uncertainty [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the aquaculture industry chain is "oscillating with a slight upward trend" [1] Core Viewpoints - Soybeans are expected to maintain a slightly upward trend [1] - Corn is expected to show a slow upward trend in the new year, and there are opportunities to buy on dips after the phased supply pressure eases [1] - For eggs, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [2] - For the far - month contracts of live pigs, it is recommended to buy on dips [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - The producer price remains high with limited movement, and the consumer price follows the producer price. The market shows a "price stability under supply - demand stalemate" feature, but there are signs of stronger price support. On January 13, CCOFCO will conduct a two - way bidding transaction for 30,000 tons of domestic soybeans [1] Corn - After the New Year's Day, the supply of corn is still limited, but CCOFCO's weekly auction volume has increased to one million tons. The grain - selling progress in the Northeast has accelerated, and the remaining grain has decreased. Local deep - processing enterprises have slightly raised prices for purchases, and multi - channel supply has effectively supplemented the market. Corn is expected to show a slow upward trend [1] Eggs - In December, the inventory of laying hens decreased to 1.295 billion. The young - dominated structure with over 80% in the main production stage makes it difficult to eliminate production capacity. There is still great resistance to elimination in the future. Without the egg price falling below the feed cost, the industry lacks the motivation to clear production capacity actively [2] Live Pigs - In 2025, the actual total output of domestic pig - breeding enterprises increased steadily, reaching 155.79 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The actual output showed significant pre - and post - festival differences and seasonal characteristics. The third - party data shows that the reduction of pig production capacity has accelerated significantly, indicating an upward price expectation for far - month contracts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The primary investment opportunity identified is in resource commodities, particularly precious metals, which have shown strong performance in terms of returns and Sharpe ratios since November of last year [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Precious metals like silver, copper, and gold have led global asset performance, with a significant acceleration in their market activity observed in the past few weeks [1]. - The market is currently pricing in a medium to long-term supply-demand imbalance and expectations of a weaker dollar, with short-term catalysts being the anticipated easing of monetary and fiscal policies [1][3]. - The Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program introduced in December is believed to have a more substantial impact on liquidity than initially recognized, contributing to a new bullish trend in commodities [1]. Group 2: Comparative Asset Analysis - Other major asset classes face specific concerns: U.S. equities are at risk of over-investment due to AI capital expenditures diverging from returns on invested capital; European equities are hindered by economic weakness and slow fiscal policy implementation; Japanese equities struggle with conflicting monetary and fiscal policies; emerging markets are affected by tariff uncertainties and a slowing weak dollar narrative [2]. - In the bond market, increased government debt issuance due to fiscal expansion is expected to suppress bond prices, while oil prices lack upward momentum due to an oversupply situation [2]. Group 3: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - In the short term, liquidity improvements and expectations of monetary easing are driving commodity price increases, with an estimated $600 billion liquidity boost expected from RMP and TGA releases [3]. - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts and even a return to quantitative easing, although this is contingent on economic data trends [3]. - Mid-term demand for resources is expected to grow significantly, particularly in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles, with copper demand projected to increase by over 20% by 2030 compared to 2024 levels [4]. Group 4: Long-term Trends - A prolonged weak dollar environment is anticipated, which will support commodity prices as the U.S. economic growth potential faces constraints [5]. - Geopolitical tensions are expected to exacerbate resource competition, leading to supply-side disruptions as countries increase their strategic reserves of various metals [5].

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of consumer assistance product catalog from Guangdong Province has been officially announced, highlighting the successful inclusion of four high-quality local agricultural products from Hengshitang Town in the provincial official recommendation platform, marking a significant step in connecting local specialty industries with the national consumption surge during the Spring Festival [1][3]. Group 1: Product Inclusion - The products successfully included in the provincial consumer assistance procurement catalog are "Yingde Black Tea Yinghong No. 9" from Tea Fragrance Yijing Company, "Fragrant Cold-Pressed Peanut Oil" and "Qingyuan Silk Rice" from Libiao Cooperative, and "Grapes" from Longzhihua Ecological Agriculture [2][3]. - These products passed strict reviews due to their excellent quality and potential to drive local economic benefits, entering the main channel for Spring Festival consumer assistance [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The work team is leveraging this opportunity to integrate local industrial development into the broader provincial and national festive consumption landscape, facilitating connections between these products and various promotional activities such as "New Year Goods Markets" and online sales [4]. - The inclusion signifies that Hengshitang Town's specialty agriculture is now on the "fast track" of provincial consumer assistance, providing broader exposure and sales channels for these products, which will enhance brand recognition and directly increase farmers' income through stable consumer orders [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, palm oil spot and futures prices rose slightly, showing a pattern of "first falling then rising, oscillating strongly". The core drivers were the expected seasonal production cut in the producing areas and the warming of macro - sentiment, while the accumulation of domestic port inventories suppressed the basis [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil imports in December 2025 were 33,292 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.64%; production was 1,829,761 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46%; exports were 1,316,522 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.52%; inventory was 3,050,598 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.58%. It is predicted that Malaysia's palm oil production in 2025 will reach a record 20.28 million tons, higher than 19.34 million tons in 2024 [1]. - In the short term, palm oil prices are supported by futures and stocking demand, but the inventory accumulation pressure limits the increase, and high - price transactions are weak. The price center of palm oil moves up, and the operation suggestion is mainly range trading [1]. - Factors to be concerned about include Malaysia's palm oil production and export data, the repair change of the soybean - palm oil price difference, and the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Palm oil spot and futures prices rose slightly last week, with the core drivers being the expected seasonal production cut in the producing areas and the warming of macro - sentiment. Domestic port inventory accumulation suppressed the basis [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil import, production, export, and inventory data in December 2025 are provided, and the 2025 production forecast is given [1]. - In the short term, palm oil prices are supported by futures and stocking demand, but inventory pressure limits the increase. The price center moves up, and range trading is recommended. Key factors to watch are also mentioned [1]. 3.2 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The table shows the palm oil ship - date quotes and import profit calculations for different months in 2026. For example, for the February ship - date, the CNF in South China is 1021, the import cost is 8768, the disk price is 8616, and the profit against the disk is - 152 [2]. 3.3 Other Analyses - There are various charts related to the palm oil market, including the main contract basis, palm oil purchase ship quantity statistics, expected arrival volume, Malaysia's refined palm oil production, China's palm oil liquid import quantity, Malaysia's palm oil export quantity, and palm oil's profit against the disk for the May ship - date [3][6][7][11][13][16][17]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the corn industry in the short - term is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot contradictions in the corn market still exist, with the grain - selling progress slowing down but still faster year - on - year. Port inventories are low, and there is a certain restocking demand among middle and downstream players before the festival. The short - term spot price remains relatively firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Neutral. The current grass - roots grain - selling progress is nearly half, with the progress slowing down but still faster year - on - year. The 2025/2026 planting cost continues to decline, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China, and the overall national production is expected to be abundant [4] - **Demand**: Slightly bullish. In November 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.73 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 2.7% year - on - year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 43.8%. The high pig inventory supports short - term feed demand, but the current breeding profit is in the red. Feed enterprises maintain safety stocks and replenish stocks in a rolling manner. Deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs but are cautious. Traders have not yet started large - scale strategic inventory - building and have restocking needs [4] - **Inventory**: Bullish. Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at northern ports is slow, and the inventory is still at a low level, mostly contract - order inventory. The grain inventory at southern ports is also at a low level. Feed enterprises' inventory and deep - processing corn inventory are both at low levels [4] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis is neutral, and the C03 - C05 spread favors positive arbitrage [4] - **Profit**: Bearish. Pig and egg - poultry breeding profits are in the red, and the processing profits of deep - processed starch and alcohol are also in the red [4] - **Valuation**: Neutral. From the perspective of planting cost, the corn futures valuation is relatively high; from the perspective of absolute price, the corn futures valuation is relatively low [4] - **Macro and Policy**: Bearish. The release of policy grains such as reserve corn, imported corn, and aged wheat has increased [4] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Oscillating. The short - term spot price is firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: oscillating; Arbitrage: C03 - C05 positive arbitrage [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents the basis trend of the corn main contract, the prices at various ports such as Jinzhou Port and Shekou Port, the market average prices in Heilongjiang and Shandong, the futures contract positions of different months (such as C01, C03, C05, C09), and the spreads between different contracts (such as C03 - C05, C05 - C09) through charts [6][8][12][18] 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain - selling Progress**: The report shows the grain - selling progress in the Northeast and North China through charts, and currently the channel supply has decreased [22][24] - **Port and Inventory Data**: Northern port inventory and southern port grain inventory are at low levels. It also presents data on feed enterprises' inventory days, feed monthly production, and deep - processing enterprises' corn inventory and consumption [40][46][69] - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: Pig prices have slightly rebounded, and the weight reduction is not obvious. The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented, as well as relevant data such as the number of laying hens and the number of parent - stock broilers in production [54][58][64] - **Deep - processing Industry**: The deep - processing corn consumption has seasonally rebounded, but the deep - processing corn inventory is at a low level. The starch processing profit has worsened, and the starch inventory is at a high level. Alcohol production has declined, and the processing profit has decreased. The demand for starch in the beverage industry is poor, while the papermaking start - up rate is high but the profit has declined. Wheat prices have slightly increased, and the flour demand is weak [67][75][87][105] - **Futures Registration**: The report shows the number of corn futures registered warehouse receipts through a chart [113] 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The 2025/2026 corn inventory - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries have been lowered, and it presents the global corn production and its distribution, as well as the inventory - to - consumption ratios of the US and other major exporting countries [118][122][123] - **Export Situation**: US corn export sales have performed well, and it presents the export sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China of US corn through charts [125][126][130]

（文章来源：新华财经） 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚1月1-10日棕榈油出口量为325955吨，较上月同期出 口的280048吨增加16.4%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the prices of various market commodities in Yiyuan County, Shandong Province, showed stability in some categories while experiencing fluctuations in others, particularly with noticeable increases in vegetable and fruit prices [1][2][3] Group 2 - Prices of staple foods and secondary products remained stable, with examples including salt at 2 yuan/kg, sugar at 5 yuan/bag, and tofu at 3 yuan/kg, showing little change compared to the previous month [1] - Grain and oil prices also maintained stability, with prices for items like noodles at 2.4 yuan/kg and corn flour at 3 yuan/kg remaining consistent with the previous month [1] - Production material prices exhibited mixed trends, with a slight decrease in gasoline and diesel prices averaging a drop of about 2.7%, while fertilizer prices increased by approximately 6.2% [1] - Raw grain prices saw a slight increase, with wheat and corn prices averaging a rise of about 0.9% [2] - Prices for live pigs and piglets experienced a decline, with live pig prices around 12.6 yuan/kg and piglet prices at 22 yuan/kg, reflecting an average decrease of 3.3% [2] - Meat and egg prices also saw a slight decrease, with average prices for various meats and eggs dropping by about 1.2% [2] - Fruit prices showed a significant increase, with an average rise of 11.3%, including apples at 5 yuan/kg and bananas at 2 yuan/kg [3] - Vegetable prices began to rise, with an average increase of 10.2%, particularly notable in eggplant and green chili prices, which rose by 60% and 100% respectively [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Palladium, Platinum, Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coke, BR Rubber, PTA, LPG [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PVC [1] - Neutral: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Iron Ore, Black Metals, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Soybean Oil, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Ethylene Glycol, Asian Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term, driven by sufficient market funds and positive macro - fundamentals [1]. - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - Different commodities have different price trends based on their own supply - demand situations, policy factors, and macro - economic conditions [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The stock index broke through strongly with heavy volume last week, opening up a new upward space. With positive macro - fundamental data, it is expected to maintain an upward pattern in the short - term [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound despite a recent high - level decline [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong due to supply - side restrictions [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate as they are near the cost line despite weak industrial fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices have risen recently due to good macro - sentiment, but caution is needed regarding the upside space [1]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with increased risk, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies, macro - sentiment, and futures positions [1]. - Stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin prices are affected by market sentiment, and caution is needed for capital withdrawal [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term but with significant fluctuations [1]. - The short - term pattern of weak platinum and strong palladium may continue, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the long - term [1]. - Industrial silicon is bearish due to production changes and reduced production schedules in related industries [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon has factors such as a traditional peak season for new energy vehicles,旺盛 demand for energy storage, and increased supply resumption [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise rapidly in the short - term [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Short - term sentiment and funds play a greater role than industrial contradictions, and long positions with stop - losses can be considered [1]. - Iron ore has obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Black metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with potential supply disturbances [1]. - Glass prices are supported in the short - term but face over - supply pressure in the medium - term [1]. - Soda ash prices follow glass and are more loosely supplied in the medium - term, facing pressure [1]. - Coking coal may have room to rise if the "capacity reduction" expectation continues, but the actual increase is hard to judge [1]. - Coke has a similar logic to coking coal [1]. Oils - Palm oil is expected to be bearish in December according to MPOB data but may reverse later, and short - term rebounds due to macro - sentiment should be watched [1]. - Soybean oil has a strong fundamental and is recommended for long - allocation in oils [1]. - Rapeseed oil may have a trading logic change, and there is still room for price decline [1]. Agricultural Products - Cotton is in a situation of having support but no driving force, and future policies and market conditions should be watched [1]. - Sugar has a global surplus and increased domestic supply, and attention should be paid to capital changes [1]. - Corn sales progress has slowed but is still fast year - on - year, and the spot price is firm in the short - term [1]. - Bean粕 is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [1]. - Pulp prices are affected by macro - commodity fluctuations, and cautious observation is recommended [1]. - Log prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range [1]. - Live pigs' supply capacity still needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil has a risk of rising due to geopolitical factors, but there are also factors such as increased supply and weakening demand [1]. - Fuel oil is affected by factors similar to crude oil [1]. - Asphalt has factors such as high profit and potential supply changes [1]. - BR rubber has factors such as reduced upward momentum in the short - term and positive factors for future butadiene exports [1]. - PTA has a recent price increase not due to fundamental changes but has fundamental support in the future [1]. - Ethylene glycol rebounded due to supply - side news [1]. - Asian styrene is in a weak - balance state, and short - term upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Propylene has cost support and geopolitical risks [1]. - PVC is expected to face over - supply in 2026, and there is a possibility of capacity clearance [1]. - LPG has factors such as increased import costs, geopolitical risks, and changing inventory trends [1].

（文章来源：新华财经） 据马来西亚独立检验机构AmSpec，马来西亚1月1-10日棕榈油出口量为466457吨，较上月同期出口的 396477吨增加17.65%。 ...