Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's expectation of the 232 tariff has been postponed to September/October, and the price and spread of non-US regions will be significantly supported before the 232 tariff is implemented [5][7] - The supply of alumina is slightly in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range corresponding to the high-cost production capacity and cash cost of bauxite at $73 - $75 [13][16] - The aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to remain in a narrow range of increase or decrease in July, and the aluminum consumption off-season may not be too light [23] - The market trading atmosphere of cast aluminum alloy is relatively light, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum price [28] - The supply of zinc continues to increase, and the downstream enters the consumption off-season, so the zinc price may be under pressure to decline [37] - The supply of lead may be tightened, and the lead price may fluctuate strongly under the improvement of consumption [42] - The supply and demand of nickel are in a weak pattern, and the nickel price is under pressure in the medium term [49] - The stainless steel price is under pressure, and it is expected to decline in shock [57] - The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is in the off-season, so the short-term market is strong [64] - The price of industrial silicon is affected by market rumors, and it is recommended to operate short-term according to the technical graph [70][72] - The polysilicon market is affected by industry and macro factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [76] - The lithium carbonate price may test the upper pressure, but the upward space is limited, and the idea of shorting on rallies remains in the medium term [81] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 80,640 yuan/ton, up 1.09%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced its position by 15,446 lots to 596,100 lots. The spot price increased in Shanghai and Guangdong but decreased in Tianjin [2] - **Important Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world from January to May 2025 reached 7.89 million units, accounting for 27.7% of the total vehicle sales [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the unilateral position; buy near and sell far for arbitrage; wait and see for options [8][9][10] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract decreased by 42 yuan to 2,945 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 4,532 lots to 429,700 lots. The spot price remained unchanged [11] - **Related Information**: The winning bid price of alumina in Xinjiang increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [16][17] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract increased by 65 yuan/ton to 20,800 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 21,366 lots to 680,400 lots. The spot price in East China increased, while that in South China remained unchanged and that in Central China decreased [19] - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, and the production of aluminum rods decreased [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the unilateral position; consider positive arbitrage opportunities when de-stocking; wait and see for options [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 50 yuan to 19,825 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 258 lots to 10,089 lots. The spot price remained unchanged [26] - **Related Information**: The expected sales volume of passenger cars in June increased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [26] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum price, and consider arbitrage trading and spot-futures arbitrage under certain conditions; wait and see for options [30] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract decreased by 0.8% to 22,255 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 6,105 lots to 268,800 lots. The spot price decreased, and the market trading improved [32] - **Related Information**: The smelter in Peru resumed production, and domestic zinc production projects were put into operation [33] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see on the unilateral position, and consider shorting on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.26% to 17,100 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index increased by 1,148 lots to 82,600 lots. The spot price decreased, and the trading was limited [40] - **Related Information**: The social inventory of lead ingots increased, and Shanghai introduced subsidy policies for electric bicycles [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable long positions and consider adding long positions on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [43] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2508 decreased by 250 to 120,720 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 3,110 lots. The spot premium remained unchanged or decreased slightly [46] - **Related Information**: Indonesian nickel projects were launched, and China's economic prosperity level expanded [47][48] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies on the unilateral position; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling call options after rallies [50][52] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS2508 decreased by 110 to 12,560 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 4,789 lots. The spot price range was given [56] - **Related Information**: India launched an anti-dumping review on Chinese stainless steel pipes, and China continued to impose anti-dumping duties on imported stainless steel [57] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to decline in shock; wait and see for arbitrage [58][59] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2508 closed at 269,840 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton or 0.63%. The spot price decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased slightly [61] - **Related Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world and different regions was given [62][63] - **Trading Strategy**: The short-term market is strong, and pay attention to the resumption rhythm of tin mines; wait and see for options [64][65] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures decreased significantly, and the spot price range was given [67][68] - **Related Information**: A high-performance fluorine-chlorine new material project was planned to be built [69] - **Trading Strategy**: Operate short-term according to the technical graph; wait and see for options; participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [72][73] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures decreased significantly, and the spot price decreased [74] - **Related Information**: China revised the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, and the US solar industry subsidy was discussed [75] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see on the unilateral position; wait and see for options and arbitrage [77][79] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract increased by 100 to 62,780 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased. The spot price remained unchanged [80] - **Related Information**: Hainan Mining signed a lithium spodumene purchase agreement, and the central government emphasized market construction [81] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies on the unilateral position; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out-of-the-money call options [82][83]

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 07 月 01 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） ...

2025年07月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：仓单矛盾缓解，偏弱运行 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游工厂开始复产，盘面或回调 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注实际现货成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 1 日 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 3）根据钢联资讯，海外媒体报道印尼某重要金属加工园区内一座镍冶炼厂已恢复生产。今年 3 月该 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation of new production capacity is increasing, while most enterprises are in a stage of losing cash cost at current price levels, dampening production enthusiasm and causing some to suspend delivery product lines [2][3] - The demand side is relatively weak. Downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling has been reduced, demand has weakened marginally, silicon wafer and battery cell enterprises are expected to cut production, and end - market purchasing enthusiasm is low [3] - With the release of the photovoltaic desert control plan in the three - north desert regions, market sentiment has improved, but the polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices [3] - There was a short - term supply reduction due to a Xinjiang factory's shutdown, leading to a polysilicon price rebound, but prices may fall after the news fades. Long - and medium - term operations should focus on short - selling at high levels [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 33,535 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the position volume was 66,333 lots, down 2,729 lots [3] - The price difference between August and September for polysilicon was 550 yuan, up 20 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 25,475 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan [3] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 34,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 1,185 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan [3] - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.22 US dollars/kg, down 0.03 US dollars [3] - The average prices of polysilicon (cauliflower, dense, and re - feeding materials) were 28, 29.5, and 31 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 8,060 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price was 8,450 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [3] - The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons [3] - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the total social inventory was 542,000 tons, down 17,000 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 793 tons, down 161 tons [3] - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 4.88 US dollars/kg, down 0.13 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 70,569,000 kilowatts, down 1,359,000 kilowatts [3] - The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W [3] - The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 103,399,980 units, up 19,610,660 units; the import volume was 12,098,490 units, down 8,021,950 units [3] - The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules was 0.29 US dollars/unit, up 0.02 US dollars/unit [3] - The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 21.67, down 0.62 [3] Industry News - As of June 27, the mainstream market prices of P - type and N - type polysilicon were stable [3] - The US Senate Republican leader plans to vote on Trump's bill, which restricts new energy and affects industry demand [3] - Currently, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads [3] Inventory - Polysilicon inventory is at a high level. Silicon wafer enterprises' unsold inventory suppresses market prices [3] Key Focus - No news today [3]

2025 年下半年硅 策略报告 2025 年 6 月 3 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1、供给：新疆产能继续释放，内蒙及甘肃新增产能填补了西南减产缺口，结构性过剩矛盾突出。据百川，上半年国内工业硅总产量达 | | | 185.6万吨，环比增长21.5%，同比下滑14.9%；主产地占比为新疆53.2%、内蒙12.3%、甘肃10.4%、云南5 %、四川4.5%；上半年开炉量下 | | | 滑53台至215台，开炉率下滑8.3%至27.2%。 | | | 2、需求：光伏抢装带领晶硅需求集中前置，但降库存导致向上传导不佳，有机硅抢出口成为主增量。上半年国内工业硅消费测算量92.9 | | | 万吨，同比下滑34.9%。其中DMC产量102.4万吨，同比增长27.4%，测算工业硅用量约53.2万吨；多晶硅产量57.5万吨，同比下滑45.3%， | | | 测算工业硅用量约74.7万吨；1-5月铝合金产量740.5万吨，同比增长16.7%，预计上半年铝合金产量88 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Natural Rubber - Short - term rubber prices rebound due to market sentiment, but with supply increasing and demand weakening, prices are expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 yuan/ton and monitor raw material supply in each production area and macro - event disturbances [1]. Industrial Silicon - The short - term price of industrial silicon futures rises supported by demand recovery and production cuts, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not improved. Technically, the price is still strong [3]. Polysilicon - The current contradiction in the polysilicon market is the mismatch between weak demand and复产 expectations. In July, demand is likely to remain weak. If production resumes, prices will be under pressure; if significant production cuts are implemented, prices may stabilize and rebound [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, there is a short - term boost, but the medium - term is under pressure. Wait for trading opportunities after the sentiment fades. For glass, it is in the off - season, facing over - supply pressure, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 950 - 1050 [6]. Logs - The log market is entering a supply - and - demand dual - weak pattern. The 07 contract is strong due to the first - delivery cost game, and short - term oscillation is expected [8]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose 250 yuan/ton to 14,100 yuan/ton on June 27, a 1.81% increase [1]. - The full - latex basis switched to the 2509 contract rose 128.95% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread rose 20 yuan/ton to - 825 yuan/ton, a 2.37% increase [1]. Fundamental Data - Thailand's production in April decreased by 43.5 thousand tons to 105.7 thousand tons, a 29.16% decline [1]. - China's natural rubber import volume in May decreased by 6.98 tons to 45.34 tons, a 13.35% decline [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded - area inventory increased by 1,410 tons to 606,975 tons, a 0.23% increase [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed S15530 industrial silicon rose 100 yuan/ton to 8,300 yuan/ton on June 27, a 1.22% increase [3]. Monthly Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread rose 20 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton, a 133.33% increase [3]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production in May increased by 0.69 tons to 30.77 tons, a 2.29% increase [3]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.29 tons to 17.29 tons, a 1.65% decline [3]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material remained at 34,500 yuan/ton on June 27 [4]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract rose 1,600 yuan/ton to 33,315 yuan/ton, a 5.04% increase [4]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon production in May increased by 0.07 tons to 9.61 tons, a 0.73% increase [4]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 27 tons, a 3.05% increase [4]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Price and Spread - The North China glass quotation remained at 1,140 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash - related Price and Spread - The North China soda ash quotation remained at 1,350 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The soda ash production rate decreased by 5.04% to 82.21% [6]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 67.1 tons to 6,921.6 tons, a 0.96% decline [6]. Real Estate Data - The new construction area increased by 2.99% to - 18.73% [6]. Logs Futures and Spot Price - The log 2509 contract decreased by 2.5 yuan/cubic meter to 791 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.32% decline [8]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.01 to 7.168 [8]. Supply and Demand - The number of ships at the port decreased by 5 to 58, a 7.94% decline [8]. Inventory - The national coniferous log inventory decreased by 100,000 cubic meters to 3.35 million cubic meters as of June 20 [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and made changes in policy tone, monetary policy thinking, and exchange - rate statements [6]. - Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. It is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. - Glass is in a short - term shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank Policy - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply - side structural reform" and added "put strengthening the domestic large - cycle in a more prominent position and coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand". It also removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and added "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation". The exchange - rate statement was also adjusted [6]. Copper - The price of copper has risen due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. The spot is tight, with low domestic and rapidly falling LME inventories and continuous spot premiums. The overseas logic has a more obvious pulling effect on prices. It is expected that the price will remain firm, and it is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. Glass - Glass has been in a downward trend in the first half of the year due to weak real - estate demand, insufficient supply contraction, high factory inventories, and large warrant pressures. After reaching a low - valuation level in early June, it rebounded. Currently, it is in a shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Other Commodities - For other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., the report provides their price trends, fundamental data, and trend intensities. For example, zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has support from peak - season expectations [12][15][18].

行业 日期 2025 年 06 月 30 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengze ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅大厂突发减产，光伏再提反内卷 根据百川盈孚，本周新疆、内蒙、宁夏分别减产 25、3、1 台，四川增开 1 台。周产量 7.49 万吨，环比-2.22%。SMM 工业 硅社会库存环比-1.7 万吨，样本工厂库存环比-0.23 万吨。新疆 大厂突发减产。部分伊犁小厂在政府补贴下有所增产。四川、 云南预期丰水期开工仍将有小幅增加。大厂生产计划将对工业 硅基本面产生较大影响。若大厂维持 48 台开炉，则工业硅单 月或去库 6 万吨。但若大厂恢复东部基地满产，则工业硅或单 月累库 3 万吨。大厂减产时间仍不明确，关注后续进展。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 现货本周成交低迷。市场传言多家企业多个基地新增复产计 划，我们暂仅考虑已复产企业的生产情况，预期 7 月排产 10.7 万吨。此水平的复产也足以带动多晶硅进入单月过剩。根据 SMM，截至 6 月 26 日，中国多晶硅厂库存 27 万吨，环比+0.8 万吨。下游硅片厂对硅料压价态度明显，在硅料龙头企业联合 减产之前，预计硅料价格仍将继续下跌。但近日政策端变动较 大，周末人民日报发文再度强调"反内卷"，后续关注政策端 变化。 [★Ta工bl业 ...