股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.03 关税博弈拉长，淡季压力渐显 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 ——有色及贵金属周报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [table_Authors] 于嘉懿(分析师) | 兰洋(研究助理) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880522080001 | S0880123070158 | 本报告导读： 特朗普关税政策遭遇美国司法挑战，后续关税以其他形式出台的不确定性增加，美 国国内外对关税的博弈时间将被拉长，或导致金价波动加剧。国内而言，下游淡季 需求压力逐步显现，工业品短期或有所承压。 投资要点： 行 业 跟 踪 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 报 告 [Table_subIndustry] 白银：金融与商品属性影响下，白银价格波动或更大。①价格：5 月 30 日当周 SHFE 白银跌 0.27%至 8218 元/千克，COMEX 银跌 1.59%至 33.08 美元/盎司， 伦敦银现跌 1.51%至 32 ...

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年6月3日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | | | 前值 | 日 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | | 122325 | 121525 | 800 | 0.66% | 7C/HT | | 1#金川镇 | | 123525 | 122625 | 900 | 0.73% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇升贴水 | | 2600 | 2500 | 100 | 4.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | | 121175 | 120375 | 800 | 0.66% | 元/肥 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | | 250 | 250 | O | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | | -203 | -196 | -7 | 3.79% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | | -3496 | -3085 | -411 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the macro level shows a weakening signal, the fundamental contradiction is weak, and the domestic refined copper balance may shift from tight to neutral. Attention should be paid to the possible slight increase in inventory, which may suppress the absolute price [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand in May - June is not expected to decline significantly, there is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. The monthly positive spread can be held if the absolute price falls [1]. - For zinc, the zinc price fluctuates widely this week. The domestic social inventory accumulates slowly, and the inflection point of accelerated accumulation is expected to appear in early June. Attention should be paid to the node of inventory change from decline to accumulation, and short positions are recommended to be held. The domestic - foreign positive spread can be partially closed at an appropriate time [2]. - For nickel, the supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory accumulates slightly, and the domestic inventory remains stable. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [3]. - For stainless steel, the supply rebounds seasonally in April and some steel mills cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The fundamentals remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - For lead, the price fluctuates and declines this week. The supply is expected to decrease in May. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16400 - 16700 next week [6]. - For tin, affected by the overall low commodity sentiment and weak energy varieties, the tin price center moves down. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [9]. - For industrial silicon, the overall supply and demand are in a tight - balance state currently, but there is large potential supply pressure in the future. In the long - term, the price is expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [12]. - For lithium carbonate, the price falls this week. In the short term, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline after fluctuations next week. In the medium - long term, if the operating rate of leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises does not decline significantly, the price will still fluctuate weakly [14]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 30, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 101, and the LME inventory decreased by 2500 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Overseas, a large amount of Russian copper is extracted from LME warehouses, and the LME cash - 3M spread widens. Domestically, the cross - month spread and spot premium remain stable, and the downstream demand may weaken. The supply is affected by the shutdown of Kamora Copper Mine, which is expected to resume in the fourth quarter [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 90, the domestic alumina price increased by 1, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 16856 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increases slightly, demand in May - June is not expected to decline significantly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. Inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 60, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 2225 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The zinc price fluctuates widely this week. The domestic TC rises, and the smelting output in June is expected to increase by 25,000 tons compared with May. The domestic demand elasticity is limited, and the overseas demand recovers slightly. The domestic social inventory accumulates slowly, and the LME inventory declines slightly [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 550, the spot import return decreased by 874.57, and the LME inventory decreased by 762 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The pure nickel supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory accumulates slightly, and the domestic inventory remains stable [3]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coil, 304 hot - rolled coil, 201 cold - rolled coil, 430 cold - rolled coil, and waste stainless steel remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Situation**: The supply rebounds seasonally in April and some steel mills cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the fundamentals remain weak [3]. Lead - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai - Henan price difference remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 2375 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuates and declines this week. The supply side has problems such as raw material shortage and low profit, and the demand side has high battery inventory and weak overall demand [6]. Tin - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the spot import return decreased by 1720.64, the spot export return increased by 2414.63, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the overall low commodity sentiment and weak energy varieties, the tin price center moves down. The supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand is limited by the slowdown of the electronics and photovoltaic industries [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 55, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 45, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 615 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The overall market start - up rate increases slightly. The demand from the organic silicon industry increases slightly, but the overall demand is weak. The inventory is at a high level, and there is large potential supply pressure in the future [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 200, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 200, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 427 [14]. - **Market Situation**: The price falls this week. The downstream demand is weak, the supply side has production resumption and reduction situations, and the inventory accumulation speed slows down. In the short term, the price is expected to decline after fluctuations [14].

铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 有色金属日报 2025-6-3 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价小幅冲高后回落，伦铜周跌 1.22%至 9497 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 77600 元/吨，端午 假期间特朗普威胁提高钢铁和铝关税导致美铜走强，贵金属和原油价格亦上涨，伦铜上涨 1.24%。产 业层面，上周三大交易所库存环比减少 0.2 万吨，其中上期所库存增加 0.7 至 10.6 万吨，LME 库存 减少 1.5 至 15.0 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.5 至 16.4 万吨。上海保税区库 ...

Core Points - Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company Limited has successfully issued its first phase of technology innovation bonds for the year 2025, raising a total of 800 million RMB [1] - The bonds have a maturity period of 3 years, with an interest rate of 2.03% and a face value of 100 RMB per 100 RMB [1] - The issuance was approved during the annual shareholders' meeting held on May 8, 2023, where the company was authorized to register and issue medium-term notes up to 5 billion RMB [1] Summary by Sections Bond Issuance Details - Bond Name: Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company Limited 2025 First Phase Technology Innovation Bond [1] - Bond Code: 102582195.IB [1] - Total Issued Amount: 800 million RMB, matching the planned issuance [1] - Interest Rate: 2.03% [1] - Issuance Date: May 29, 2025 [1] - Maturity Date: May 29, 2028 [1] Approval and Registration - The company received approval from the China Interbank Market Dealers Association to register the medium-term notes with a total amount of 5 billion RMB [1] - The registration is valid for 2 years from the date of the notice [1] Underwriters - Bookrunner: Shanghai Bank Co., Ltd. [1] - Lead Underwriters: Shanghai Bank Co., Ltd., CITIC Bank Co., Ltd., Beijing Bank Co., Ltd., China Everbright Bank Co., Ltd., Ping An Bank Co., Ltd. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The national manufacturing PMI for May recorded at 49.5%, showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a near median level for the same period over the past five years [1][3][4]. Demand and Supply - Both demand and supply sides have improved, with external demand rebounding more strongly than internal demand. The new order index rose to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export order index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5% [6][12]. - The production index rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing production [6][10]. Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant growth in new orders, with indices above 52%. Consumer goods manufacturing also saw a stable increase, with new export orders rising over 6 percentage points into the expansion zone [1][8]. - However, some industries, such as textiles and non-ferrous metal processing, reported new order and production indices below the critical point, indicating insufficient release of production and demand [6][8]. Price Trends - The decline in price indices has narrowed significantly, with raw material prices and factory gate prices both decreasing by only 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. This indicates that the ability of companies to pass on costs has not yet recovered [10][12]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index recorded at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point. The construction sector showed a business activity index of 51%, indicating ongoing expansion [12][13]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery driven by holiday consumption demand [13].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan, with the monthly spread and premium slightly declining, which will have a positive impact on spot market consumption, and the subsequent inventory accumulation may be slow [1]. - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory depletion, and the monthly positive spread can be held if the absolute price falls [1]. - For zinc, it is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profits on the domestic - foreign positive spread at an appropriate time [2]. - There are opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio, which can continue to be monitored [3]. - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate in the short term as the fundamentals remain weak [3]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week, with a planned supply reduction in May [6]. - For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large factories in the long term [9]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weak in the long - term due to capacity expansion [9]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: The domestic market continued to accumulate inventory slightly this week. The monthly spread and spot premium decreased, and spot trading improved. The LME inventory decreased by 1,925 tons, and the cancelled warrants increased by 3,275 tons [1]. - **Supply - side**: The Kamo' a mine had some mining areas shut down due to an earthquake, which may affect this year's output. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production in early June, which may improve the shortage of electrolytic copper premiums in Southeast Asia but have a negative impact on domestic TC [1]. - **Demand - side**: Domestic electrolytic copper consumption showed resilience. The State Grid issued the second - batch of tenders this week, and cable consumption and orders are expected to be strong in the remaining time of the second quarter. However, consumption in some sectors showed signs of weakening [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: Supply increased slightly, and imports from January to April were large. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price rebounded with inventory depletion [1]. - **Supply - side**: The supply increased slightly, and imports from January to April were large [1]. - **Demand - side**: The demand decline from May to June is not obvious. Aluminum product exports are maintained, and photovoltaic demand declined slightly. There is still a supply - demand gap [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: The zinc price oscillated this week. The domestic social inventory accumulation was slow, and the LME inventory decreased slightly [2]. - **Supply - side**: The domestic TC and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly compared to the previous month [2]. - **Demand - side**: Domestic demand elasticity is limited, with weak orders in North China. Exports in East and South China can be maintained due to the easing of tariff sentiment. Overseas demand in Europe improved slightly [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: The price of pure nickel decreased, and the overseas nickel plate inventory increased slightly [3]. - **Supply - side**: The production of pure nickel remained at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April [3]. - **Demand - side**: The overall demand is weak, and the spot premium is maintained [3]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: The prices of various stainless - steel products remained stable, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly [3]. - **Supply - side**: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May [3]. - **Demand - side**: The demand is mainly for rigid needs [3]. Lead - **Market Data**: The lead price oscillated and declined this week. The LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons [6]. - **Supply - side**: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. Recycling merchants panicked to sell due to concerns about price changes after the holiday. Mid - stream recycled smelters have concentrated production capacity, but the supply of waste batteries is tight, and most operate at half - capacity. The concentrate production increased from March to April [6]. - **Demand - side**: Battery export orders decreased slightly, and the overall demand is weak. The consumption is in the off - season, and orders only meet rigid needs [6]. Tin - **Market Data**: The tin price oscillated narrowly this week. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the cancelled warrants increased by 10 tons [8]. - **Supply - side**: The short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires negotiation. The processing fee at the mine end is low, and the smelting profit is inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi Province have cut production, and those in Yunnan Province are struggling to maintain production [8]. - **Demand - side**: The elasticity of solder demand is limited. The growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline significantly. After the large - scale restocking by downstream enterprises, there is a lack of consumption - side impetus for further inventory reduction [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: The market price remained low. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the overall inventory level is still high [9]. - **Supply - side**: Some large northern factories resumed production, and Sichuan Tongwei continued to increase production. The overall start - up rate increased slightly. The enthusiasm of small and medium - sized factories to start production decreased [9]. - **Demand - side**: The demand for silicone and polysilicon is in a downward trend. Enterprises mainly purchase for rigid needs [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: The price of lithium carbonate decreased and then rebounded. The inventory accumulation speed slowed down this week [9]. - **Supply - side**: The production lines of Tianqi and Yahua resumed, and small recycling factories cut production more severely. Some self - owned mines are at a loss, and high - position hedging is used for sales [9]. - **Demand - side**: The downstream demand is weak. The policies such as trade - in do not improve the demand as expected. The lithium ore price continues to decline, and the lithium price loses support [9].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Not provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views - The copper price is expected to oscillate around 78,000 RMB, with subsequent inventory accumulation likely to be slow, and the current fundamentals and macro - environment strongly supporting the refined copper price [1] - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction. The positive spread between months can be held if the absolute price drops [1] - The zinc price is oscillating. It is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profits on the positive spread between domestic and foreign markets [2] - Opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [3] - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term as the fundamentals remain weak [3] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 RMB next week, with supply expected to decrease in May [6] - The tin market is expected to maintain a situation of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the long term [8] - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises in the long term [9] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - to - long term [9] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the spot price increased by 10, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 7,850 tons [1] - **Supply**: The Kamo copper mine may have reduced production due to an earthquake, and the Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production in early June [1] - **Demand**: Domestic refined copper consumption shows resilience, with strong cable consumption expected in the second quarter, but consumption in some sectors is weakening [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 140 RMB/ton, and the LME inventory decreased by 4,250 tons [1] - **Supply**: Supply has increased slightly, and there was significant aluminum ingot import from January to April [1] - **Demand**: Demand is not expected to decline significantly from May to June, and there is still a supply - demand gap [1] - **Inventory**: Inventory is expected to decline steadily from May to July [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 100 RMB/ton, and the LME inventory decreased by 7,700 tons [2] - **Supply**: Domestic and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and smelting maintenance decreased slightly in May [2] - **Demand**: Domestic demand has limited elasticity, while overseas demand is slightly recovering [2] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory is accumulating slowly, and the LME inventory is declining slightly [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the spot price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 200 RMB/ton, and the LME inventory increased by 864 tons [3] - **Supply**: Pure nickel production remains at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April [3] - **Demand**: Overall demand is weak, and the spot premium remains stable [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the price of 201 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 25 RMB/ton, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 50 RMB/ton [3] - **Supply**: Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May [3] - **Demand**: Demand is mainly for essential needs [3] - **Inventory**: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have increased slightly, and some exchange warehouse receipts have been cleared [3] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the spot premium decreased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,325 tons [4][6][11] - **Supply**: Scrap lead supply is weak, and some secondary smelters are reducing production [6] - **Demand**: Battery export orders have decreased slightly, and overall demand is weak [6] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the spot import profit increased by 7,484.98, and the LME inventory increased by 20 tons [8] - **Supply**: Myanmar's Wa State's short - term resumption of production requires negotiation, and some domestic smelters in Jiangxi have reduced production [8] - **Demand**: Solder demand has limited elasticity, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 100, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 340 [9] - **Supply**: Some large northern factories have resumed production, and overall production has increased slightly [9] - **Demand**: Demand from the organic silicon and polysilicon industries is declining, and enterprises are purchasing mainly for essential needs [9] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is starting to decline, but the overall inventory level is still high [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 500 RMB/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 300 [9] - **Supply**: Some production lines have resumed work, and some small recycling plants have increased production cuts [9] - **Demand**: Downstream demand is weak, and enterprises are maintaining only safety stocks [9] - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulation rate has slowed down this week [9]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落，下跌 0.31%至 9566 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.33%至 77790 | | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口持续亏损。宏观方面，美国 4 月耐用品订单环比初值下跌 | | | | 6.3%，预期值为-7.8%，前值由 9.20%修正为 7.50%，表明在关税政策不确定性的影响 | | | | 下，企业投资意愿正在减弱。国内方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，前 4 月规模以上 | | | | 工业企业利润增长 1.4%，较前 3 月加快 0.6 个百分点，延续恢复向好态势。库存方 面，LME 库存下降 7850 吨至 154300 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 688 吨至 163043 吨； | | | 铜 | SHFE 铜仓单下降 100 吨至 34861 吨；BC 铜仓单维持 880 吨。需求方面，高铜价高升 | | | | 水，下游采购相对谨慎，终端需求订单可能逐步放缓。虽然特朗普态度反复摇摆，但 | | | | 美 ...

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月29日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 264900 | 264800 | 100 | 0.04% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 650 | 700 | -50 | -7.14% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 265400 | 265300 | 100 | 0.04% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -111.00 | -135.00 | 24.00 | 17.78% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -10585.57 | -9335.31 | -1250.26 | -13.39% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.09 | 8.1 ...