大摩闭门会：房地产、交运、汽车行业更新 260107 摘要 房地产市场：预计 2026 年一、二手房销售量将继续以中单位数下降， 与 2025 年跌幅相当。二手房价预计继续以高单位数下跌，跌幅或略有 放缓，但挂牌量高企是主要制约因素。 房地产开发投资：受土地销售疲软影响，2026 年新开工项目预计维持 中等程度下降，开发投资同比降幅预计与 2025 年持平，维持在 15%- 16%左右。 房地产股票投资策略：建议关注能够分拆商业物业并受益于内需刺激的 商业运营商（如华润置地、新城控股），以及通过优化业务实现盈利增 长的住宅市场整合者（如建发国际、中海地产）。 中通快递：预计明年盈利增长 10%左右，包括 10%的量增长及单位利 润持平。连续三个月增速超过行业平均水平，市场份额扩张对估值有支 撑作用，盈利增长或超预期。 航运行业：地缘政治因素导致不合规运力退出，增加合规运力需求。委 内瑞拉局势变化支持这一需求，目前位置仍具备绝对收益空间。关注春 节期间运价下调风险。 航空业：需求强劲，客流量增长 10%，票价高单位数到低双位数增长。 运力投放仅增长 2%，客座率明显上升，表明行业供给侧存在局限性， 增强了对供给 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) is expected to see a price increase in the near future due to recent stock price adjustments and rising demand for legal oil tankers amid geopolitical dynamics [1] - As of the report, China COSCO's stock price increased by 3.65%, reaching HKD 9.94, with a trading volume of HKD 190 million [1] - Morgan Stanley has indicated that the stock's recent pullback has made its short-term valuation more attractive, predicting an absolute price increase within the next 30 days [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant decline in the European shipping futures market, with the main contract opening down by 5.56% and experiencing a drop of nearly 8% during the trading session [2] - Maersk has announced a second reduction in its fourth-week pricing for this year, lowering the rate to $3,400 per FEU [4] - According to Haitong Futures, the pricing from Ningbo to Bremerhaven has been adjusted from $2,650 for standard containers and $2,750 for high containers down to $2,400 and $2,500 respectively, reflecting a decrease of $250 [4] Group 2 - The pricing from Shanghai to Gdansk has been reduced to $2,420 for standard containers, indicating a broader trend of price adjustments in the shipping industry [4] - The recent price reductions by Maersk suggest that the spot rates may be nearing their peak, with special-priced vessels expected to dock at Shanghai in the fifth week, indicating potential further price reductions for regular European ports in the following week [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China Merchants Energy (中远海能) has seen its stock price increase by over 5%, currently trading at 10.13 HKD with a transaction volume of 125 million HKD [1] - The increase in stock price is attributed to geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S. seizing a Russian oil tanker linked to Venezuela, which is part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to influence energy flows in the Americas [1] - Morgan Stanley has indicated that China Merchants Energy's stock is expected to see absolute gains in the next 30 days, as the recent price correction has made its short-term valuation more attractive [1] Group 2 - The demand for legitimate oil tankers is rising due to the current geopolitical dynamics, which is expected to benefit companies like China Merchants Energy [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.63%，报10.13港元，成交额1.25亿港元。 摩根士丹利近期指出，认为中远海能股价在未来30天内将出现绝对上涨。因为该股近期已经历了回调， 使得其短期估值更具吸引力。大摩看到，在地缘政治动态下，对合法油轮的需求正在上升。 消息面上，据报道，美国表示，已扣押一艘俄罗斯籍、与委内瑞拉有关联的油轮，这是特朗普试图通过 强势手段主导美洲能源流向、并迫使委内瑞拉政府倒向美国阵营的一部分行动。白宫还称，特朗普正在 讨论获取格陵兰岛的多种方案，包括不排除动用军事力量。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For contract 02, it follows the spot market, and the peak may have occurred in week 4. The subsequent price - cut rhythm is hard to judge, and the risk - reward ratio is poor at the current level, so entry is not recommended [3]. - For contract 04, a short - selling strategy on rallies is suggested. Far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors and can't have an independent market in the short term. Based on the long - term logic of expected resumption of shipping and the off - season, a short - selling strategy on rallies is also recommended for contract 10, although it has the lowest price and is most likely to be pushed up by funds when there are geopolitical reversal news [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2602 closed at 1779.1, down 5.00%; EC2604 at 1182.0, down 3.42%; EC2606 at 1422.9, up 0.42%; EC2608 at 1533.0, down 0.01%; EC2610 at 1112.0, up 0.61% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: EC2602 had a trading volume of 43604 and open interest of 21811, a decrease of 3185; EC2604 had a volume of 22083 and open interest of 26339, an increase of 2409; etc. [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For EC2502 - 2604, the spread was 597.1, a decrease of 51.8 day - on - day and 37.8 week - on - week; for EC2504 - 2606, it was - 240.9, a decrease of 47.7 day - on - day and 31.1 week - on - week [2]. Spot Market Information - **Spot Indexes**: The spot (European Line) index was 3387.69 on 2025/1/6, down 3.59% from the previous period; the SCFI was 1690 dollars/TEU on 2025/12/26, up 10.24% [2]. - **European Line Spot Quotes**: In week 2, MSK opened at 2500 dollars, with a freight rate center of 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures. MSK opened at 2600 dollars in week 3 and 2700 dollars in week 4. CMA planned to raise the price to 3800 dollars in the second half of January but reduced the rate from 3293 to 2893 dollars between January 10 - 15. MSK reduced the Shanghai - Bremen/Gdansk freight from 2700 to 2400 dollars in week 4. HMM and YML announced a rate of 2800 dollars in the second half of January, and MSC also quoted 2800 dollars [4]. Related News On 1/7, Hamas was reshaping its rule in the Gaza ruins, challenging Trump's peace plan. Despite being besieged, Hamas was trying to restore pre - war governance, and it was in the process of reorganizing its armed forces and selecting new political leaders [5].

Trading Information Summary - As of January 7, 2026, Haitong Development (603162) closed at 12.38 yuan, up 0.81%, with a turnover rate of 4.32%, trading volume of 120,600 shares, and a transaction amount of 149 million yuan [1] - On January 7, the net inflow of main funds was 1.2463 million yuan, accounting for 0.84% of the total transaction amount; net inflow of retail funds was 2.566 million yuan, accounting for 1.72%; net outflow of retail investors was 3.8124 million yuan, accounting for 2.56% [1][3] Company Announcements Summary - Haitong Development plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.50 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a total cash dividend of approximately 46.39 million yuan, accounting for 18.37% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The company will hold its first extraordinary general meeting of 2026 on January 26, 2026, to review several proposals, including the profit distribution plan and the proposed guarantee limit for subsidiaries [2] - The company intends to apply for a comprehensive credit limit of up to 3 billion yuan from financial institutions, with the credit types including working capital loans and medium to long-term loans [3][4] - Haitong Development plans to provide a guarantee limit of up to 590 million USD and 150 million yuan for its subsidiaries in 2026, with the guarantees aimed at meeting operational and financing needs [5] - The company approved an investment of up to 900 million yuan for its wholly-owned subsidiary to construct three 62,000 DWT multi-purpose heavy-lift vessels, with funding sourced from both internal funds and financial institution financing [5]

美国于周三表示，为阻挠受制裁的委内瑞拉石油出口，美方扣押了两艘油轮，其中一艘便是这艘新近注 册悬挂俄罗斯国旗的船只。 美国欧洲司令部在 X 平台发文称，这艘被美方沿用旧名称"贝拉一号"指代的油轮，因违反美国对委内 瑞拉石油的制裁规定，在北大西洋海域被扣押。 该船目前名为"马里涅拉"，是俄罗斯通过更换船旗方式纳入其 "隐秘船队" 的船只之一。 安帕齐季斯表示："此事已不只是一起制裁违规案件，更是一场实时上演的管辖权之争，核心问题在 于，美方在公海上采取执法行动的法律依据究竟是什么。船只的本身信息和历史记录没有变化，但船旗 归属状态的改变，完全可能大幅加剧外交层面的博弈风险。" Kpler公司的船舶自动识别系统（AIS）追踪数据，清晰呈现了这艘船的航行轨迹以及途中的转向变道情 况。 Kpler公司的船舶自动识别系统（AIS）可实时获取船舶传输的定位信息，该数据显示，这艘油轮近期在 大西洋海域靠近苏格兰的位置，曾进行过一次大幅转向。 "马里涅拉" 号（曾用名 "贝拉一号"）航行路线图 在被扣押前的两周多时间，该船当时以欺诈手段注册悬挂圭亚那国旗，船名仍为 "贝拉一号"，在驶往 委内瑞拉装载受制裁原油的途中，曾遭美方 ...

Group 1: Board Meeting Overview - The board meeting of Fujian Haitong Development Co., Ltd. was held on January 7, 2026, with all 7 directors present, and the meeting procedures complied with legal and regulatory requirements [2][4]. Group 2: Profit Distribution Proposal - The board approved a profit distribution proposal for the first three quarters of 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 0.50 RMB per 10 shares (including tax), with no capital reserve conversion or bonus shares [3][26]. - The total cash dividend amounts to approximately 46.39 million RMB, representing 18.37% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period [23][22]. Group 3: Guarantee Limit Proposal - The board approved a proposal to provide guarantees for subsidiaries, with a total limit of up to 590 million USD and 150 million RMB, ensuring operational needs are met while maintaining risk control [6][31]. - The guarantee will cover various forms, including credit guarantees, mortgages, and pledges [6][31]. Group 4: Comprehensive Credit Facility Proposal - The board approved a proposal to apply for a comprehensive credit facility of up to 3 billion RMB from financial institutions to support operational funding needs [9][46]. - The credit facility will be valid for 12 months from the date of approval by the first temporary shareholders' meeting in 2026 [9][47]. Group 5: Financing Lease Proposal - The board approved a proposal to engage in financing leaseback transactions with qualified leasing institutions, with a total financing amount not exceeding 35 million USD [12][51]. - The financing will be used to optimize the company's capital structure and meet operational funding needs [12][58]. Group 6: Investment in Shipbuilding - The board approved an investment of up to 900 million RMB (excluding tax) for the construction of three multi-purpose heavy-lift vessels by its wholly-owned subsidiary [15][64]. - The investment aims to expand capacity and enhance competitiveness in the market [15][68]. Group 7: Shareholders' Meeting Notification - The company will hold its first temporary shareholders' meeting on January 26, 2026, to discuss the approved proposals [18][72]. - The meeting will utilize both on-site and online voting methods [18][75].

Core Viewpoint - Haitong Development (603162.SH) aims to enhance its competitiveness and market share by expanding its fleet capacity through a significant investment in new vessels [1] Investment and Expansion - The company plans to invest no more than 900 million yuan (excluding tax) to construct three 62,000 DWT multi-purpose heavy-lift vessels [1] - A shipbuilding contract has been signed with Taizhou Port Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. for the construction of these vessels [1]