根据世界银行最新发布《2025年12月柬埔寨经济展望》报告，预计柬埔寨2025年经济增长率将放缓至 4.8%，低于2024年的6%。 报告指出，房地产行业疲软、柬泰边境争端及美国关税上调等多重内外冲击，对该国经济活动造成显著 压力。具体来看，房地产市场低迷持续抑制国内需求与建筑行业活力；柬泰边境紧张局势不仅扰乱了双 边贸易往来，还对劳动力市场与旅游业造成连锁冲击；此外，美国自2025年8月1日起对柬埔寨所有进口 商品加征19%关税，进一步加剧了外部环境的不确定性。 世界银行驻柬埔寨国家经理Tania Mayer表示，柬埔寨正处于应对内外双重冲击的关键挑战期，强有力 的缓冲机制与针对性改革将是抵御经济压力的核心支撑。她强调，保障返乡人员等弱势家庭的基本生活 需求仍需重点关注，同时需通过改善营商环境、扶持非正规企业发展、简化正规化流程等举措，释放经 济增长潜力，营造公平竞争市场环境，进而创造更高质量的就业机会。报告显示，尽管柬埔寨经济增长 面临压力，但仍然展现出一定韧性，该国国际储备状况保持健康，能够支付约7.5个月的进口需求，公 共债务水平较低，约占国内生产总值（GDP）的26%，债务可持续性良好，2025年平 ...

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains weak, with operating rates for asphalt plants, cement dispatch, and grinding mills at historical lows[1] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, but some sectors are showing signs of weakness, particularly in steel and automotive[1] - Demand for construction materials, automobiles, and home appliances is weak, with rebar and building materials at historical low demand levels[2] Commodity Prices - Copper, aluminum, and gold prices have reached or are approaching historical highs, driven by expanding dollar liquidity and industrial activity[2] - The recent two weeks saw fluctuations in oil prices, while copper and aluminum prices have shown upward trends[2] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing mixed trends, with some materials like cement and asphalt declining in price[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions in 30 major cities have decreased by 16% compared to the previous two weeks, with year-on-year declines of 21% and 35% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[4] - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with significant year-on-year declines in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen[4] Export and Liquidity - Exports are projected to grow by approximately 2.1% year-on-year for the first two weeks of December[5] - Recent liquidity conditions show fluctuating funding rates, with the central bank conducting net withdrawals of 1.4134 trillion yuan[5] Risk Factors - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy measures[6]

格隆汇12月16日丨华侨城A(000069.SZ)公布，近日，公司收到控股股东华侨城集团出具的《关于增持华 侨城A股份计划的告知函》，及其一致行动人深圳华侨城资本投资管理有限公司（简称"华侨城资本公 司"）签署的《简式权益变动报告书》，华侨城集团于2025年7月15日至2025年12月16日期间，通过深圳 证券交易所交易系统集中竞价交易的方式累计增持公司股份19,572,900股，占公司总股本的0.24%，增 持金额（不含交易费用）合计人民币50,174,174元。本次增持后，公司控股股东及其一致行动人共计持 有公司股份比例由49.76%变动至50.00%，变动触及5%的整数倍。 ...

Production - In November 2025, the industrial added value of large-scale industries grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The mining industry recorded a growth of 6.3%, outperforming manufacturing at 4.6% and water, electricity, and gas at 4.3%, indicating ongoing reliance on traditional resource sectors[12] - The sales rate of industrial products fell to 96.5%, reflecting a misalignment between production expansion and end demand[13] Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking a decline of 1.6 percentage points from October, the lowest monthly growth since December 2022[2] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption[16] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.7%, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales, highlighting the impact of digital consumption trends[17] Investment - From January to November 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6%, with a widening decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous period[5] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative decline of 15.9%, with housing sales area and sales amount both decreasing by 7.8% and 11.1% respectively, continuing a negative growth trend for 43 months[25] - Manufacturing investment fell by 0.8 percentage points to 1.9%, with a monthly decline of 4.5%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector[24] Economic Outlook - The economic data for November indicates that insufficient effective demand remains the primary contradiction in the economy, opening up further space for policy support[27] - Future policies to boost domestic demand are expected to focus on enhancing employment, increasing residents' income, and improving social security[28]

Group 1 - The report highlights a continued weakness in demand, particularly in consumer spending, which has been significantly impacted by a decline in automobile sales and the reduction of government subsidies for trade-ins [2][3] - Cumulative retail sales growth for January to November 2025 is reported at 4.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, with automobile sales showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.0% [3][22] - Industrial value-added growth for November 2025 is at 6.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from October, indicating a divergence between traditional industries related to real estate and high-tech sectors [3][4] Group 2 - The report notes a rebound in inflation, primarily driven by rising food prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a 0.5 percentage point rise [3][5] - Fixed asset investment shows a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% for November, with real estate investment down 15.9% and infrastructure investment at 0.13% [3][7] - The report indicates that the overall economic fundamentals are weakening, with investment growth and consumer spending declining, while inflation recovery remains uncertain [3][23]

Group 1 - The report highlights a continued weakness in consumer demand, particularly impacted by a decline in automobile sales and the reduction of government subsidies, indicating that sustained policy support is necessary to boost consumer spending [3] - Industrial value-added growth remains resilient at 6.0% year-on-year, although there is a clear divide between traditional industries, such as real estate, which are contracting, and high-tech industries that are supporting growth [3][4] - Inflation is showing signs of recovery, primarily driven by rising food prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 0.7% year-on-year, marking the first positive change in food prices this year [3][5] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment has seen a further decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6% in November, driven by downturns in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments [3][7] - The report notes that the economic fundamentals are weakening, with investment growth and consumer spending both declining, while inflation recovery remains uncertain [3] - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with cumulative sales area down 11.1% year-on-year, indicating a persistent contraction since the second quarter of this year [3][10]

*此图由AI生成 作者| 史大郎&猫哥 来源| 是史大郎&大猫财经Pro 还有10个交易日，"大忽悠"就要彻底退市了。 江苏吴中上市26年，只用了5年，就被大股东姐弟掏空了，6.7万股东被埋在里头了。 它曾是"中国普教第一股"，从一个做校服的校办企业，5年就干上市了，但是发展一直不温不火，甚至 可以说是，做啥雷啥。 最开始，做的纺织+医药，结果主业纺织不好做了，退出纺织行业； 2010年，进军房地产，干了4年就低迷了，开始"去库存"，退出地产业； 他们发迹在杭州，2015年，复基控股成立，主要是做长租公寓以及对应的租金分期。 那会，长租公寓正红，他们也融了资，挣了不少钱。 后来长租公寓暴雷的时候，他们还趁机收购了不少资产，"房产中介生意"成为他们的基本盘。 一个要卖，一个要买，双方都很急。 2018年2月，钱氏姐弟以7.07亿的价格，通过实控吴中投资，持有江苏吴中17.01%股份，钱群英成为了 实控人。 2016年，进军化工，2018年遭遇环保整治，收购的化工公司停产了。 眼瞅着业绩越来越差，大股东也想找接盘侠，于是，他们遇上了钱氏姐弟，钱群英和钱群山。 大家心里都有自己的小九九。 原来9个股东，7个套现走人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the real estate market is crucial for boosting consumption and ensuring the resilience of the overall economy, necessitating decisive and innovative government policies to reverse market expectations [2][3][5]. Group 1: Relationship Between Real Estate and Consumption - The relationship between real estate and consumption is clear; a household's consumption ability depends on its asset value and future income expectations. The current decline in consumption is due to the significant reduction in household assets and weakened confidence in future income caused by the downturn in the real estate market [3][5]. - Experts emphasize the need to stabilize asset values and market expectations to solidify the foundation of consumption, aligning with the central government's repeated calls for "stabilizing housing prices, land prices, and expectations" [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Attributes of Real Estate - Real estate possesses both consumption and investment attributes, similar to government bonds and stocks. The current rental yield in some declining markets is approaching 2%, making it relatively attractive compared to savings [6]. - The shift in market expectations has led to a decline in transaction volumes despite falling prices, contrasting with typical consumer behavior where price drops stimulate sales. This change is attributed to a generational shift in perception, particularly among younger individuals who no longer view rising property prices as inevitable [6][7]. Group 3: Pathways to Stabilize the Real Estate Market - Experts suggest various strategies to address the current challenges in the real estate market, including the potential for easing purchase restrictions in major cities to stimulate market activity, as evidenced by positive trends in cities like Chengdu after policy relaxations [8][9]. - The central government is encouraged to utilize public financial tools to address local fiscal and financial issues, with the issuance of government bonds seen as a viable method to meet market demand for quality assets and support economic recovery [9][10]. - The establishment of a personal bankruptcy protection system is deemed urgent to alleviate the burdens on homeowners unable to continue mortgage payments, which would help protect consumer confidence and overall economic stability [10][11]. Group 4: Importance of Real Estate Stability - The stability of the real estate market is considered more critical than that of the stock market, as it affects a broader segment of the population and directly influences consumer confidence and asset security [11][12]. - The central government is believed to have the capability and experience to address the challenges in the real estate market through institutional innovation and policy tools, which can help restore a healthy market environment [11][12].

越秀地产(00123)公布，于2025年12月16日，该公司(作为借款人)与一家银行(贷款人)订立一份融资协 议，据此，贷款人在融资协议的条款及条件的规限下提供5亿港元的定期贷款融资，最长贷款期由首次 提款日期起计18个月。 ...

哈喽，大家好，今天小睿这篇市场观察，聚焦六大核心指标拆解 A 股当前性价比，估值合理但情绪降 温，现在该抄底还是观望？ 临近2025年末，A 股市场呈现出 "数据矛盾" 的独特格局，估值指标显示市场处于合理区间，资金面持 续回暖，但情绪指标却发出谨慎信号。 判断市场 "贵不贵"估值是核心锚点，根据近5年PE/PB估值分位规则，当前 A 股整体处于中估区间，但 结构分化明显。 董承非分享的偏股基金指数指标更具参考性，当近3年年化收益率大于30%为泡沫阶段，为熊市底部， 而当前该指标仅 3.6%，意味着市场位置仍处于相对安全区域。 从全局看巴菲特指标当前为87%，处于 60%-90% 的合理区间，对比2024年底的63.59% 显著提升，但远 低于美股 230% 的水平，凸显成长空间。 合理区间内的结构分化 股债性价比进一步验证了 "不便宜也不贵" 的结论，全A指数股债性价比2.78%，接近近10年 2.56% 的均 值，处于近 10 年前 43.17% 分位，即比历史上 56.83% 的时期更具吸引力。 不过结构分化值得关注，创业板指近 10 年估值分位仅 28.98%，而沪深 300、中证 500 均超 70 ...