Core Viewpoints - The inflation rebound in October is primarily driven by factors other than the anti-involution effect, with significant contributions from commodity price increases [2][60] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from -2.3% [9][59] Group 1: Factors Influencing Inflation - Factor 1: The anti-involution effect led to an increase in coal prices, but its impact on downstream PPI was limited. In contrast, copper prices, which were less affected by anti-involution, saw a significant increase, contributing 0.2% to the PPI [2][10][60] - Factor 2: The CPI's rise above zero was attributed to a low base and reduced supply in certain food categories, with pork prices remaining low despite the anti-involution effect. The food CPI increased by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year [2][17][61] - Factor 3: Core CPI continued to rise, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices. The core CPI increased to 1.2% year-on-year, with significant price increases in accommodation and travel services due to the overlapping National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [3][24][61] Group 2: Future Outlook - The price increases in bulk commodities are expected to continue influencing inflation, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may take time to materialize. The PPI is projected to remain around -2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter [4][37][62] - Although the low base, steady improvement in service consumption demand, and high gold prices may support core CPI, the limited rebound in CPI for the year is anticipated due to the tapering of national subsidies and slow recovery in downstream PPI [4][37][62] Group 3: Regular Tracking - The CPI showed an overall increase, with contributions from both food and non-food items. The food CPI rose by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in fresh vegetables and fruits [5][43][63] - Non-food items such as household appliances and communication tools saw a decline in CPI, with household appliances dropping to 5.0% and communication tools to 1.2% [5][48][63] - The overall service CPI increased, with core service CPI performing better than seasonal trends, rising to 0.8% year-on-year [7][52][63]

Core Insights - The inflation data for September shows a CPI of -0.3% year-on-year, slightly better than the previous -0.4%, but below market expectations of -0.1%. The PPI stands at -2.3% year-on-year, improving from -2.9% previously, with a month-on-month change of 0% [1][6][7]. Group 1: PPI Analysis - The improvement in PPI is primarily driven by the continued rise in commodity prices, particularly copper, which saw a month-on-month increase of 2.1%. This contributed to a 0.1% increase in PPI [2][7]. - Coal prices also continued to rise, contributing another 0.1% to PPI. However, low capacity utilization in downstream sectors has hindered the transmission of upstream price increases, resulting in a drag of -0.1% on PPI [2][7]. Group 2: CPI Analysis - The overall low CPI is mainly due to the decline in food prices, with the core CPI rising to 1.1%. The core commodity CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points to 1.4%, driven significantly by rising gold prices, which boosted core CPI by approximately 0.7 percentage points [2][9]. - The CPI for household appliances reached a ten-year high at 5.5%, influenced by rising raw material costs and improved demand. The concentration of national subsidies in late September also contributed to this spike [3][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Non-anti-involution factors are expected to continue pushing up commodity prices, but excess supply in downstream sectors and a reduction in national subsidies are likely to keep inflation weak for the remainder of the year. The anticipated recovery in PPI is expected to be moderate [4][18]. - The CPI is expected to remain weak due to the continued pressure from PPI and the tapering of national subsidies, although rising gold prices may sustain core CPI at elevated levels [4][18]. Group 4: Regular Tracking - The PPI recorded a year-on-year change of -2.3%, with production materials showing a significant recovery. The CPI for September increased slightly to -0.3%, with food CPI at -4.4% [21][23]. - Non-food consumer goods, particularly household appliances and communication tools, showed notable increases, with household appliances CPI rising to 5.5% [25].

Core Viewpoints - The transmission effect of upstream price increases to downstream is weakening, with PPI showing marginal improvement in August due to significant recovery in commodity prices [2][10][70] - The overall PPI remained at 0% month-on-month, primarily due to low capacity utilization in downstream sectors, which hindered the reflection of upstream price increases [2][10][70] PPI Analysis - In August, PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.9%, an improvement of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations [2][10][70] - Major commodities like coal and steel continued to rise, contributing positively to PPI, while international oil price declines negatively impacted domestic oil prices [2][10][70] - Downstream sectors are experiencing significant price reductions, with PPI declines in industries such as food and automobiles, which saw respective month-on-month decreases of 0.3% [2][10][70] CPI Analysis - CPI year-on-year fell to -0.4% in August, influenced by a high base from the previous year and weak food prices, with food CPI dropping by 4.3% [3][23][50] - The core CPI is expanding, with core goods CPI rising by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, driven by high gold prices and demand from the third batch of national subsidies [3][29][71] - Service CPI showed slight growth, supported by summer travel and healthcare service reforms, while rental prices remained weak due to high youth unemployment [4][33][62] Future Outlook - Commodity prices are expected to continue rising, but excess supply in downstream sectors may limit the transmission of price increases from upstream [4][72] - Year-end PPI is projected to recover to a maximum of -2.1%, while CPI may remain negative in Q3 but could turn positive in Q4 due to policy support for service consumption [4][72]

Consumption - In May, the retail sales growth rate reached 6.4%, exceeding expectations of 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1%[8] - The increase in retail sales was driven by e-commerce promotions and an additional 2 days of holidays compared to last year, leading to concentrated demand release[2] - Significant improvements were noted in household appliances (+14.2 percentage points to 53.0%) and communication equipment (+13.1 percentage points to 33.0%) sales[9] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7%, below the expected 4%, with a monthly decline of 0.7 percentage points to 2.8%[8] - The decline in investment was primarily due to the end of the equipment renewal cycle and a drop in traditional infrastructure and real estate investments[3] - Real estate investment fell by 10.7%, slightly worse than the expected decline of 10.5%[8] Production - Industrial value-added growth in May was 5.8%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from April[25] - Manufacturing production saw a significant decline, down 0.4 percentage points to 6.2%, influenced by fewer working days in May compared to last year[25] - The decline in production was exacerbated by weak real estate and export sectors, particularly affecting transportation equipment and electrical machinery[25]

Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing PMI for May increased marginally to 49.5%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity, although it remains below the expansion threshold of 50 [2][10] - The new export index is low, but domestic demand, particularly in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing, shows significant improvement [2][21] - The service sector PMI also saw a slight increase, driven by improvements in life services, particularly during the "May Day" holiday [40][67] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, with production and new orders indices increasing by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points to 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively [2][52] - The production index has recovered above the expansion line, while the new orders index remains in contraction territory, indicating a disparity between production acceleration and weak demand [2][10] - Industries with strong domestic demand, such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods, showed better performance, with PMIs rising by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points to 51.2% and 50.2% [21][24] New Orders and Exports - The internal demand orders index rose above the expansion line to 50.1%, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, indicating a divergence in recovery between domestic and export orders [3][24] - The average value of new export orders over April and May remains lower than in March, suggesting ongoing pressure on exports [3][24] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50.3%, primarily due to a decline in the construction sector, which fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51% [67][29] - Despite the decline in construction, civil engineering activities are accelerating, with the civil engineering PMI rising to 62.3% [29][84] - The service sector PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, supported by active consumer spending during the holiday period [40][67] Future Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies remain significant, with ongoing monitoring of fiscal policies' support for domestic demand [45][45] - The focus will be on the potential for fiscal measures to bolster service consumption and infrastructure investment, which are expected to enhance domestic demand support [45][45]