执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 21 日 分析师：惠祥凤 每 周 投 资 早 参 震荡向上或为主，结构性机会丰富 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 2025 年下半年市场运行逻辑：宏观经济环境和货币政策是影响 A 股走势的重 要变量，A 股本身的估值、业绩及供需关系也对 A 股的走势起着至关重要的作用。 宏观经济方面，美国关税政策对全球经济造成扰动，预计下半年国内出口增速或 有压力，后续财政政策可能会加大刺激力度对冲；货币政策方面，下半年美联储 大概率会降息，国内货币政策继续适度宽松，但主要还看需求端；估值方面，在 市场低估程度明显缓解后，下半年关注重点为估值驱动能否向盈利驱动顺利切 换；股票需求方面：个人投资者资金或小幅增加，公私募资金新发规模有望继续 改善，长期资金在监管层的鼓励引导下有望成为重要的增量资金来源之一，建议 加大理财资金权益配置比例，外资流入进入平缓阶段，回购资金有望延续良好的 态势，类"平准基金"汇金公司未来有望继续增持（如果市场出现大幅波 ...

Core Viewpoints - The current market is experiencing a phase of consolidation rather than stagnation, with expectations for future upward movement as economic recovery and corporate earnings improve [2][9][10] - The market is characterized by a structural trend, with certain sectors showing potential for independent performance due to policy support and earnings growth [5][9] Market Overview - On the recent trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index showed relative strength, while the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Indexes declined, indicating a divergence among the three major indexes [2][11] - The total trading volume across both exchanges decreased to 1.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [6][11] Sector Performance - The electricity sector saw significant gains, driven by the successful operation of a major thermal power plant and a favorable coal price environment, leading to positive earnings growth for many companies in this sector [7] - The cross-border payment sector also experienced an uptick, supported by the central bank's initiatives to enhance cross-border payment systems between mainland China and Hong Kong [8] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes are identified: 1. Stocks with better-than-expected interim performance, focusing on those with anticipated earnings improvements [3][10] 2. Technology sectors including military, robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a cautionary note on the need for thorough fundamental analysis to avoid overvalued stocks [3][10] 3. Rebound opportunities in sectors like new energy and brokerage firms, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [3][10]