市场仍处于震荡反复的行情中，逢低布局绩优股或是占优策略 观点： 总量视角 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 12 月 19 日 【A 股大势研判】 周四晨报提醒，对于投资者而言，当前最理性的策略是保持冷静与耐心，既 不必因单日反弹而过度亢奋，也无需因调整而悲观。操作上，以不变应万变：无 论是科技成长方向，还是顺周期行业，亦或是红利股，尽量选择有业绩支持的标 的逢低布局，远离缺乏业绩支撑的高估值题材股。 市场走势如我们预期，周四未能延续周三午后强势回升势头，开盘便呈现明 显的分化格局。沪指在银行、煤炭等权重板块的护盘下一度翻红冲高，但深成指 与创业板指始终处于绿盘区间，成长股与科技股的走弱拖累了市场整体表现。午 后，随着算力硬件等热门赛道的进一步调整，沪指冲高回落，深成指与创业板指 跌幅扩大。整体看，权重护盘难掩成长疲软，市场仍处于震荡反复的行情中。 操作上，以不变应万变，我们维持前期的观点不变。无论是科技成长方向（半 导体芯片、泛 AI 主题及机器人行业等），还是顺周期行业（光伏、电池、储能、 化工、煤炭、有色等），亦或是红利股（银行、公用事业、"大象股"等），尽量选 择有业绩 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced volatility with a "V-shaped" reversal on Wednesday, driven by a surge in a leading real estate company's stock, which boosted market sentiment [2][10] - The current market is characterized by technical resistance above and policy support below, indicating a likely path of repeated fluctuations and potential upward movement [2][10] - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows a 0.7% year-on-year increase in CPI for November, suggesting marginal improvement in domestic demand [2][10] Sector Analysis Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, attributed to factors such as the onset of a Fed rate cut cycle, increased geopolitical tensions, and strong demand from global central banks [6] - The weakening dollar and inflation concerns have led investors to view gold as a hedge against inflation, with rising demand for gold in technology applications further supporting this trend [6] Hainan Free Trade Zone - Stocks related to the Hainan Free Trade Zone were notably active, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up. The upcoming full island closure operation on December 18 is expected to enhance market activity [7] - The new policies will allow for freer movement of goods within Hainan while maintaining controlled access from the mainland, which is anticipated to benefit related stocks [7] Real Estate - The real estate sector experienced a rebound, driven by the upcoming discussion on debt restructuring for a leading real estate company and ongoing supportive policies from the government [8] - The industry is expected to see a gradual alleviation of risks, with a focus on high-quality companies that have strong land reserves and are returning to stable growth [8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on low-entry opportunities across various sectors, including technology growth (semiconductors, AI themes, robotics), cyclical industries (solar, batteries, chemicals), and dividend stocks (banks, utilities) [3][10] - It is recommended to select stocks with strong earnings support while avoiding high-valuation stocks lacking performance backing [3][10]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 12 月 9 日 多重合力助推 A 股上行，但仍存结构性隐忧 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 上周五沪深三大指数大涨，沪指成功收复 3900 点整数关口。本周一 A 股延 续强势，其中创业板指在科技股引领下一度大涨超过 3%。盘面上看，市场驱动力 主要以 AI 算力为首的硬科技赛道，CPO、光模块概念强势，资金再次追捧人工智 能产业链。两市成交额重返 2 万亿。 周一市场上行，主要有以下几个方面的利好：一是监管层调低保险公司在沪 深 300、中证红利、科创板股票投资风险因子 10%，这一举措有望为 A 股市场带 来千亿级别的增量资金，进一步充实市场流动性（数据来源：第一财经）；二是 拓宽券商资本空间与杠杆上限，有助于提高券商资本利用效率，相当于为行业适 当加杠杆，增强市场交易活跃度和中介服务能力；三是公募基金强化长期业绩导 向，提高跟投比例并根据业绩基准调整薪资，这一制度优化将显著加强管理人与 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is likely to remain in a fluctuating but strong pattern in the short term, with pressures above and support below [2][10][13] - Key pressures include weak domestic economic recovery, uncertainties in overseas markets, potential profit-locking by institutions, insufficient willingness of incremental capital to enter, and significant selling pressure near the 4000-point mark [2][10][11] - Support factors include marginal improvements in the domestic economy, expectations for important policy meetings, and a continued loose monetary policy [3][11][12] Market Overview - On the previous Tuesday, the three major indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen experienced a downward trend, failing to continue the recovery from the previous week, with a general decline across the market and reduced trading volume [2][5][10] - The total trading volume on that day was approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of effective market entry momentum [2][10][12] Sector Analysis - The shipbuilding and military sectors showed strong activity, with previous recommendations highlighting investment opportunities in this area, which has outperformed the broader market in recent years [7][10] - Consumer stocks, including tourism, food and beverage, and retail, also saw gains, supported by government initiatives to boost consumption [8][9] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "sector rotation, fluctuating but strong" characteristic, with the need for more effective stimulus to break the current deadlock [3][11][12] - Investors are advised to focus on individual stocks rather than indices, adopting strategies such as balanced allocation and high sell-low buy, particularly in sectors with strong performance support [4][12]

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing fluctuations around the 3600-point level, reflecting increased divergence between bulls and bears [2][16][17] - The market is likely to enter a period of consolidation, with the index expected to oscillate around 3600 points to digest accumulated pressure [17] - Short-term market sentiment is influenced by profit-taking and external disturbances, while medium-term trends remain upward due to policy support and industry upgrades [5][17] Sector Performance - The semiconductor and AI application sectors have shown strength, indicating a potential shift towards technology stocks, particularly among small and mid-cap growth stocks [1][16] - The "Yalu River Downstream Hydropower" concept stocks have experienced significant volatility, with a recent pullback after a period of strong performance [11] - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative drugs and medical devices, is expected to see continued growth due to favorable policy changes and an aging population [10] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on avoiding high-flying stocks and selectively reducing positions in sectors that have seen substantial gains, such as the Yalu River hydropower concept [3][17] - Mid-term investments should target growth sectors with elastic potential, including AI infrastructure, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robotics, driven by both policy and technological advancements [3][17] - The cultural media sector is also highlighted as a potential area for investment, particularly in gaming and interactive content, benefiting from advancements in AI technology [9] Economic Indicators - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring tariff negotiations and the overall liquidity environment, which are expected to positively influence the A-share market [3][17] - The upcoming fiscal policy window in Q3 and the timing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift are critical factors to watch for market direction [3][17]

Core Views - The market is expected to experience a "slow bull" pattern in the second half of 2025, with structural opportunities prevailing and a rotation in market styles, where both small-cap and large-cap stocks will have opportunities, but individual stocks will show divergence [2][3][14] - The macroeconomic environment and monetary policy are crucial variables affecting A-share trends, with the U.S. tariff policy causing disruptions to the global economy, leading to potential pressure on domestic export growth [2][13] - The focus for the second half of 2025 will be on whether the shift from valuation-driven to earnings-driven growth can be successfully achieved, as the market's undervaluation has significantly eased [2][13] A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to show a trend of upward fluctuations, supported by favorable tariff negotiations, continuous policy efforts, and overall improvements in liquidity [3][14] - Investors are advised to pay close attention to the progress and outcomes of tariff negotiations among major economies, the fiscal stimulus window in the third quarter, and the timing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift [3][14][17] Investment Opportunities - Key investment directions include: 1. **Technology Innovation**: Focus on sectors such as robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a caution to avoid overvalued concepts [3][15][17] 2. **Anti-Competition**: Investment in industries like photovoltaics, batteries, energy storage, new energy vehicles, building materials, coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals [3][15][17] 3. **Consumer Upgrade and Policy Beneficiaries**: Areas such as pharmaceutical innovation, consumer healthcare, equipment upgrades, smart home, cross-border e-commerce, and industrial upgrades [3][15][17] Market Performance Review - The market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component by 2.04%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.17% in the previous week [6][16] - The performance of various sectors showed a mix, with cyclical stocks like rare earths and energy metals gaining traction, while gaming and diversified finance sectors faced corrections [5][6][7] Sector-Specific Insights - **Rare Earths**: The strategic value of the rare earth industry is expected to increase, with demand continuing to grow amid potential easing of export restrictions [7][8] - **Pharmaceuticals**: The pharmaceutical sector is showing strong performance, driven by supportive policies for innovative drugs and a favorable commercial environment for domestic innovations [8][12] - **Robotics**: The robotics industry is experiencing significant growth, with strong demand and supportive government policies, making it a long-term investment direction [10][12] Conclusion - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, with structural opportunities available across various sectors, and investors are encouraged to adopt a selective approach in their investment strategies, focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals and growth potential [3][14][15]

Core Viewpoints - The current market is experiencing a phase of consolidation rather than stagnation, with expectations for future upward movement as economic recovery and corporate earnings improve [2][9][10] - The market is characterized by a structural trend, with certain sectors showing potential for independent performance due to policy support and earnings growth [5][9] Market Overview - On the recent trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index showed relative strength, while the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Indexes declined, indicating a divergence among the three major indexes [2][11] - The total trading volume across both exchanges decreased to 1.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [6][11] Sector Performance - The electricity sector saw significant gains, driven by the successful operation of a major thermal power plant and a favorable coal price environment, leading to positive earnings growth for many companies in this sector [7] - The cross-border payment sector also experienced an uptick, supported by the central bank's initiatives to enhance cross-border payment systems between mainland China and Hong Kong [8] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes are identified: 1. Stocks with better-than-expected interim performance, focusing on those with anticipated earnings improvements [3][10] 2. Technology sectors including military, robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a cautionary note on the need for thorough fundamental analysis to avoid overvalued stocks [3][10] 3. Rebound opportunities in sectors like new energy and brokerage firms, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [3][10]