Oil Market - On Monday, oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI March contract closing down by $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a drop of 4.71% [2] - Brent April contract closed down by $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a decrease of 4.36% [2] - SC2603 closed at 450 yuan per barrel, down by 22.7 yuan, a decline of 4.8% [2] - Iranian President ordered to initiate nuclear negotiations with the U.S., which may lead to high-level talks in the coming days [2] - OPEC+ decided to maintain March oil production unchanged due to weak seasonal demand [2] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 fell by 7.01% to 2679 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 dropped by 5.92% to 3128 yuan/ton [3] - Supply from Western arbitrage shipments is expected to remain high, keeping the low-sulfur market well supplied [3][4] - Demand for marine fuel oil is anticipated to increase before the Spring Festival [3] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2603 decreased by 4.879% to 3299 yuan/ton [5] - Northern regions are primarily focused on downstream stocking, while overall refinery inventory levels are expected to rise as transportation halts during the Spring Festival [5][6] Rubber - Shanghai rubber main contract RU2605 fell by 380 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, with NR main contract down by 310 yuan/ton to 12925 yuan/ton [6] - Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 3.32% to 10.57 million tons [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, down 3.73% [7] - PX futures closed at 7150 yuan/ton, also down 3.38% [7] - The overall polyester production and sales are estimated to be low, around 20-30% [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2230 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $269 to $273 per ton [8] - Domestic production is expected to slightly decrease in February, while imports are anticipated to decline from high levels [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China ranged from 6600 to 6780 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - The market is entering a holiday phase, leading to an increase in inventory [9] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4770 to 4860 yuan/ton [10] - The demand for PVC in downstream construction is expected to weaken as real estate activity declines [10] Urea - Urea prices remained stable, with some regions experiencing slight adjustments [11] - Daily production is fluctuating above 210,000 tons, with expectations for further supply increases [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remained mostly stable, with some regions seeing slight declines [12] - The industry operating rate was reported at 82.29%, down 2.69 percentage points [12] Glass - Glass prices slightly decreased, with the average price at 1106 yuan/ton [14] - The market is facing pressure from declining demand as the Spring Festival approaches [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the technical adjustment of non - ferrous related varieties last week, there are signs of a rebound, and silver has reached a new high. The underlying logic is the demand logic of related commodities driven by the new economy, new energy, and AI economy, and there may be a risk of short - squeeze as the market progresses. The anti - involution logic of low - valued varieties is gradually advancing. Recently, chemical varieties have shown signs of a rebound and increased trading activity, which is worthy of attention. The national policy is determined to rectify involution - style competition and adjust the dynamic adjustment ability of the supply side. It is believed that anti - involution will be an inevitable theme in 2026 [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - long Market Viewpoint Summary - The strength - weakness structure of the commodity market in the past week remains unchanged, with non - ferrous metals and precious metals remaining strong. Chemical varieties have also shown strong performance recently. After a recent technical adjustment, non - ferrous commodities are strengthening again, and the upward trend continues [4]. - Gold and silver have broken through new highs after a short - term technical adjustment, and there are no signs of a trend reversal from the technical form [4]. - In the context of the easing of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil has weakened, but soybean oil and palm oil are unaffected. The overall downside space for oils and fats is very limited, and they can be used as long - position allocations [4]. - The chemical sector will generally operate within the anti - involution framework in 2026. The national policy emphasizes the supply - demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and the valuation of chemical products has reached an extreme level [4]. - Steel in the black sector is one of the key anti - involution varieties, and the downside space for coal is also limited. The coal supply - guarantee market is nearing its end. Recently, chemical varieties are showing signs of an upward trend [4]. 3.2 Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital flow is 34.115 billion yuan. Among them, precious metals have a capital inflow of 5.764 billion yuan, non - ferrous metals 3.479 billion yuan, black metals - 0.594 billion yuan, energy 0.274 billion yuan, chemicals 4.047 billion yuan, feed and breeding 0.478 billion yuan, oils and fats 2.118 billion yuan, and soft commodities 0.259 billion yuan [9]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: It shows price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, open - interest change percentile, and annualized basis for various black and non - ferrous varieties such as iron ore, rebar, gold, silver, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 21.8%, and the inventory percentile is 100% [9]. - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: It details price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, open - interest change percentile, and annualized basis for energy and chemical products such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For example, the price percentile of fuel oil is 7.5%, and the inventory percentile is 44.1% [11]. - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: It provides price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, open - interest change percentile, and annualized basis for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 9.9%, and the inventory percentile is 91.9% [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel products: The production recovery of finished steel products has slowed down. The apparent consumption of rebar has rebounded, leading to a shift from inventory accumulation to depletion, but the inventory change is flat month - on - month. In the subsequent consumption off - season, inventory may return to accumulation. The inventory is at a low level and shows a super - seasonal depletion. The inventory depletion speed of hot - rolled coils has accelerated marginally. Although the inventory base is large, it also shows a super - seasonal depletion, and the recent increase in warehouse receipts is obvious. The overall fundamentals are neutral, lacking driving forces, and the price fluctuates affected by the furnace charge end. It is supported by the cost end at the bottom and lacks upward driving forces at the top [3]. - Iron ore: The current dominant factor of iron ore prices is not its fundamentals but macro - expectations. Under the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation and slow resumption of production, the fundamentals cannot support the current high valuation, and there is no support for the price to continue to rise. However, after the price drops, the selling pressure is released, and steel mills have a rigid demand for replenishing inventory, so the price also has support at the bottom. Overall, it shows a wide - range oscillatory trend [21]. - Coal and coke: The accident at a factory in Inner Mongolia over the weekend may lead to a contraction in local steel supply, which can repair the profit of steel products on the futures market and support steel prices. The follow - up needs to focus on the event's handling results. If the event leads to stricter regulatory production restrictions in local areas, the progress of hot - metal production resumption may slow down, exacerbating the short - term oversupply contradiction of coking coal. In the long - term, it is necessary to focus on the change in macro - sentiment and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines after the Spring Festival. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected recovery of domestic supply" and "weakening of macro - sentiment", the long - term prices of coal and coke will face significant downward pressure [32]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are supported by the cost end at the bottom. In the short - term, after a correction, ferroalloys may show a bottom - oscillatory trend [47]. - Soda ash: Previously, the warming of the commodity market sentiment drove some low - valued varieties, and the futures price rose. The middle - stream of soda ash replenished inventory, but the elasticity was limited. From the perspective of fundamentals, as new production capacities gradually release output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. Currently, the expectation that the long - term supply of soda ash will remain at a high level remains unchanged. The inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and the number of furnace blockages is increasing. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. The high - level export of soda ash continues to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - Glass: There are rumors in the market that some production lines have ignition expectations, and the supply - demand expectation has deteriorated. Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, both the actual demand and the expected demand are weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - like movement. On the supply side, before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired or ignited, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. In addition, the policy's impact on supply cannot be ruled out. For example, there was news about the conversion of Hubei's petroleum - coke production lines to natural gas before. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent changes in supply expectations. In reality, regardless of the change in supply expectations, the high inventory in the middle - stream of glass needs to be digested, and the spot pressure still exists as the terminal enters the off - season [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: On January 21, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3192, 3117, and 3162 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3316, 3286, and 3305 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spread Data**: The 01 - 05 month - spread of rebar was 75 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 month - spread of hot - rolled coils was 30 yuan/ton on January 21, 2026 [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The summary price of rebar in China was 3318 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 78 yuan/ton on January 21, 2026; the summary price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 46 yuan/ton [9][11]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 21, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 752.5, 784, and 766.5 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 basis was 42 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average hot - metal output was 228.01 tons, the 45 - port desulfurization volume was 319.89 tons, the global shipping volume was 2929.9 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 16555.1 tons [26]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Spread and Profit Data**: On January 21, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was - 163.5 yuan/ton, the 09 - 01 spread of coke was - 113.5 yuan/ton, and the on - paper coking profit was - 25 yuan/ton [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: On January 21, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1620 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron Data**: On January 21, 2026, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 44 yuan/ton, the silicon - iron 01 - 05 spread was - 5542 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron spot price in Ningxia was 5320 yuan/ton [48]. - **Silicon Manganese Data**: On January 21, 2026, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 244 yuan/ton, the silicon - manganese 01 - 05 spread was 128 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton [49]. Soda Ash - **Futures Price and Spread Data**: On January 21, 2026, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1163, 1226, and 1270 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 spread was - 63 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 44 yuan/ton [62]. - **Spot Price and Spread Data**: On January 21, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, and the difference between heavy and light soda in North China was 0 yuan/ton [62]. Glass - **Futures Price and Spread Data**: On January 21, 2026, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1039, 1146, and 1200 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 spread was - 107 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan/ton [86]. - **Sales and Production Data**: On January 16, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 135, in Hubei was 90, in East China was 91, and in South China was 105 [87].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Bullish, and the market trend is emerging) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] Report's Core View - The overall supply in the chemical market is relatively loose, and the demand shows a mixed trend. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, overseas market trends, and seasonal demand changes, and their prices and market trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The overall supply was loose, and the transaction was average. The demand for propylene had some support due to the resumption of some devices [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures closed slightly higher. The supply of polyethylene was stable, but the demand was weakening. The spot of polypropylene showed signs of stabilizing [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rose strongly in the morning and then fell in the afternoon. The overseas gasoline trend was strong, but the rebound height should be viewed with caution due to weak downstream profits [3] - The main contract of styrene futures closed significantly higher. The overseas market was strong, but the future supply was expected to increase [3] Polyester - Affected by aromatics blending for gasoline, the prices of PX and PTA rebounded. However, considering the weakening chemical demand and uncertain US demand, a cautious bullish view was taken [5] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, with supply growth pressure. A bearish view was maintained in the medium - term [5] - Short fiber had no new investment pressure, but demand was expected to weaken. Bottle chip demand declined, and over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. The port was accumulating inventory, and the short - term was under pressure, but the valuation was low [6] - The urea market was supported by the rumor of export quota release, and the short - term was expected to fluctuate in a range with a slightly upward price center [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuated within a narrow range. The cancellation of India's BIS certification had little impact, and the market was in a state of high supply and low demand [7] - Caustic soda showed a weak trend due to high supply pressure and insufficient downstream demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a strong trend. The cost increased, and the short - term price was difficult to fall, but there was an oversupply situation in the long - term [8] - Glass fluctuated within a narrow range. The mid - stream inventory was high, and the price increase was weak, but the decline space was also limited [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Olefins: ★★☆ (suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish or bearish bias, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally affected by macro - policies, and different sectors show different trends and influencing factors. Some sectors are driven by policies, while others are restricted by supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures rose on the day, with macro - positives still boosting the market. The restart of propylene plants and downstream start - up rhythms are in a game, with increased propylene supply weakening the fundamentals and suppressing price rebounds. The market may remain weak in the short term [2] - Polyolefin futures continued to rise. For polyethylene, although macro - policies are positive, demand is weak and domestic supply is abundant. For polypropylene, after the sale of low - price resources, the price center has risen, but short - term demand is affected by the off - season, and the short - term increase may be limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of unified benzene has strengthened significantly due to the rebound of oil prices and domestic commodity sentiment and policies. The weekly output has declined, and the expectation of hydrogenated benzene is strong. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the mid - to - late third quarter, but it will face pressure again in the fourth quarter. Band operation of monthly spreads is recommended [3] - Styrene futures rose, hitting the half - year line. The macro - aspect continues to boost the market. Downstream buyers operate according to the market, mainly digesting existing raw materials, and spot procurement is on - demand, with poor spot trading [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose significantly, driven by oil prices, market sentiment, and policies. PX has limited fundamental drivers. The inventory pressure of filaments has eased, and the drag on upstream raw materials is expected to weaken. PTA processing margins are low and have room for repair, waiting for the recovery of downstream demand [4] - Ethylene glycol continued to rise with increased positions, boosted by the positive sentiment in the coal market and domestic policies. Downstream demand is stable on a weekly basis, domestic supply has increased slightly, and ports have slightly accumulated inventory. Overseas device operation is unstable, which may disrupt the market [4] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices rebounded with raw materials. Short - term demand for short fiber is still in the off - season, but new capacity is limited, and the recovery of future demand is expected to boost the industry. For bottle chips, the load continues to decline, and price repair is limited under low - start conditions [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures continued to rise, mainly affected by relevant policies. The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and ports are expected to see unexpected destocking this week. Domestic main - producing area enterprises are starting autumn maintenance, but some enterprises may resume work early or postpone maintenance due to good profits. Downstream procurement is for rigid demand, and enterprise inventory has decreased slightly [5] - Urea futures fluctuated strongly. The peak season of agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the current operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is still low. Domestic downstream demand is weak. Export goods are being shipped to ports, and production enterprises are continuously destocking, but the destocking rate has slowed down. The market supply remains sufficient, and with policy support, the urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices were pushed up by cost due to the fermentation of anti - involution policies, and the futures price was strong. The demand of downstream product enterprises is in the off - season, and social inventory has been accumulating since July. Domestic demand is weak, and export deliveries have decreased. Supply is expected to increase next week. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with cost; in the long term, if the elimination of backward production capacity does not meet expectations, the price may not rise continuously [6] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. Upstream salt has issued an anti - involution document, and attention should be paid to whether it will affect the raw salt industry and drive up the price of caustic soda raw materials. Downstream buyers resist high prices, supply has increased, and inventory has increased month - on - month. Alumina demand provides some support, but non - aluminum downstream demand is average. The short - term market is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the elimination of backward production capacity [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to be strong due to the temporary shutdown of Haitian's device and positive sentiment. Inventory continued to decline, and the spot price increased. The supply is under high pressure. The photovoltaic industry is suffering large losses and is reducing production due to anti - involution policies. In the short term, the market is mainly affected by macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to whether actual policies will be introduced for the small amount of backward production capacity [7] - Glass prices continued to rise, with a 50 - yuan increase in Shahe today. Middle - stream buyers are stocking up, and the industry is in a destocking mode. Industry profits have slightly recovered, and production capacity has fluctuated slightly. Processing orders are weak. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash at low levels can be considered [7]