证券研究报告 2026年01月12日 信用重启与双峰共振 ——2026年海外年度策略 赵阳(证券分析师) S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 袁野(证券分析师) S0350525030001 yuany03@ghzq.com.cn 核心提要 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、解析信贷重启如何与资本开支双峰共振，驱动实物定价修复；2、厘清美日中三极信贷在物理 交付中的分工与非对称博弈；3、确立信用分层下的资产配置建议。 三、资产配置：信用分层下的"效率验证" 回归基本面Alpha，筛选具备"物理刚性"与现金流韧性的标的： 2026年是2024年以来全球货币脉冲转化效率的效果验证年。我 们需要理清"信用"与"物理交付"之间的逻辑层级：信用重启 →融资成本下降→资本开支落地→物理交付/利润确认。 风险提示：历史数据仅供参考；样本代表性不足的风险；数据处理统计方法可能存在误差；基于主观认知划分产生的偏差；国内 国际市场不可简单对比；金融市场的系统性风险。 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 一、核心逻辑：从流动性驱动转向"实物验证" 2026年是全球货币脉冲向实物产出转化的关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a bullish trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, driven by opportunities in AI-related sectors, particularly in computing power, storage, and electricity infrastructure [3][5][11]. Group 1: AI-Related Opportunities - The "four forces" driving market opportunities are computing power, transportation capacity, storage capacity, and electricity supply, with significant gains in stocks like Haiguang Information and Cambrian [3][6]. - The semiconductor industry is seeing a rebound, with major players like Haiguang Information and Cambrian experiencing substantial stock price increases [6][9]. - The storage chip sector is entering a new cycle of price increases, with SK Hynix confirming higher prices for HBM4 chips, indicating a potential "super cycle" driven by AI demand [9]. Group 2: Electricity Infrastructure - The electricity infrastructure sector is showing strong performance, with key stocks like Sunshine Power and TBEA reaching historical highs [11][15]. - The global demand for electricity equipment is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating that electricity consumption in AI data centers will quadruple by 2030 [15]. - Recent investments in fixed assets and major projects in high-voltage direct current engineering are expected to boost the electricity infrastructure sector, with the State Grid's investment projected to exceed 650 billion yuan this year [15][16].

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 4000 points, driven by four key forces related to AI: computing power, transportation capacity, storage capacity, and electricity supply [1] Group 1: Computing Power - Stocks such as Haiguang Information and Cambricon have seen significant gains, indicating strong performance in the computing power sector [1] - The AI computing sector has shown impressive results in Q3, with ongoing interest in both North American and domestic computing chains [6] Group 2: Storage Capacity - The storage chip sector is experiencing a price increase, with SK Hynix confirming a price of approximately $560 for HBM4 chips, up from an expected $500 [7] - The storage chip market is entering a "super cycle" due to increased demand from the AI industry and previous supply constraints [7] Group 3: Transportation Capacity - Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Yuanjie Technology have also reported significant stock price increases, reflecting a robust transportation capacity sector [1][4] Group 4: Electricity Supply - The electricity infrastructure sector is gaining momentum, with companies like Weichai Power and Sunshine Power seeing substantial stock price increases [1][8] - The global demand for electricity is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating that AI data centers will quadruple their electricity consumption by 2030 [12] - The National Grid's investment is projected to exceed 650 billion yuan this year, marking a significant increase in infrastructure spending [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that Indonesia's economy is facing internal structural challenges, with GDP growth expected to slow to 4.9% in Q1 2025, driven more by internal reform pressures than external geopolitical risks [1] - The establishment of the Danantara Sovereign Wealth Fund, with a target size of $900 billion, is seen as a key strategic tool for Indonesia's economic transformation, aimed at managing state-owned enterprises and acting as a catalyst for industrial upgrades [3] - Indonesia's mandatory foreign exchange retention policy for resource-based exports is expected to increase foreign exchange reserves by over $20 billion within the year, helping to restore the reserve coverage to the level of 12 months of imports [3] Group 2 - The Indonesian capital market has experienced significant foreign capital outflows, with a net outflow of $2.98 billion from the stock market and over $375 million from the bond market since the beginning of 2025, attributed to governance issues among local companies [4] - The Indonesian Composite Index (IHSG) has seen a year-to-date decline of 7.5%, with current valuations corresponding to forward P/E ratios of 10.7x and 9.6x for 2025 and 2026, respectively, placing it at a low compared to other Southeast Asian markets [4] - In light of ongoing governance disputes and uncertain trade friction prospects, the Indonesian stock market may face further valuation adjustment pressures, despite its low export dependence on the U.S. at only 10% [4] Group 3 - The report suggests a "short-term defensive + mid-term layout" strategy for Q2 2025, focusing on sectors with complete local supply chains and lower exposure to internal and external market risks, such as food and beverage and healthcare [4] - Mid-term attention is recommended for sectors benefiting from state-owned enterprise restructuring and fiscal expansion, including financial services (state bank reforms), utilities (electricity infrastructure), and construction (accelerated infrastructure investment) [4]