这种区域分化的格局意味着，未来投资收益将更依赖于对全球增长差异与政策节奏的深刻理解，以及跨 市场的灵活配置能力。在此过程中，全球配置能力至关重要。摩根资产管理凭借其全球研究网络与本地 洞察，并与顶尖金融机构、研究机构保持紧密协作，在研判宏观趋势的同时，通过深入的行业与公司分 析，致力于筛选出具备长期增长潜力且估值合理的优质企业，例如能将技术转化为实际业务价值的AI 公司，或通过数字化转型提升盈利的传统行业龙头，这正是其全球配置和主动管理能力的核心体现。 对于市场关注的热点议题，报告也给出了分析。中国权益资产方面，2025年的积极因素可能在2026年延 续，市场或以结构性行情为主。分行业的盈利一致性预期指向科技、工业、通信服务、原材料等板块实 现较快的盈利增长。与科技成长相关的板块配置可关注半导体、算力链、消费电子、机器人、新能源、 有色金属和创新药等领域。在宏观不确定性持续存在的背景下，也需坚持投资纪律，利用高股息策略管 理波动风险。 报告认为，人工智能应用的快速发展正在推动软件、硬件和云资源的支出大幅增加，在为技术提供商创 造机遇的同时，也引发了对基础设施瓶颈和成本上升的担忧。人工智能或将颠覆传统商业模式， ...

Group 1 - A-shares are currently in a short-term adjustment phase, but the long-term upward trend since last year remains intact, with potential buying opportunities if the market overcorrects [1][2] - The adjustment in the A-share market is nearing its end, with a recommendation to gradually invest in sectors with offensive attributes, particularly in technology and advanced manufacturing [1][2] - The current market adjustment reflects a shift in capital between high and low sectors, with net inflows indicating sufficient micro liquidity [2][3] Group 2 - The core driving force of the current market is the positive signals from domestic micro and macro levels, including policy support and increased capital market participation [3][4] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong earnings expectations, such as new consumption, chemicals, and technology, as these sectors show low valuations and strong performance [3][4] - The upcoming third-quarter reports are expected to provide more allocation clues for investors, particularly in sectors with strong policy focus and earnings certainty [5][6] Group 3 - The technology sector remains a key focus, with expectations of continued growth driven by earnings and valuation improvements [6][7] - Short-term strategies may include considering dividend stocks in sectors like coal, insurance, and banking, although these are seen as limited in terms of long-term performance [7][8] - The overall market trend is still upward, supported by the growth of overseas income and profits from Chinese companies [7][8]

Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Cloud Computing - The demand for computing infrastructure is expected to continue expanding due to the explosion of AI model requirements and the intelligent transformation across various industries [2] - AI infrastructure serves as a hub connecting computing hardware and AI applications, driven by hardware upgrades and technological breakthroughs [2] - The value of cloud computing is anticipated to be reassessed in the context of AI penetration, leading to new growth opportunities [2] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Investment - Global solid-state battery shipments are projected to reach 614 GWh by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 80% from 2024 to 2030 [3] - The solid-state battery market in China is expected to expand significantly, with a market size projected to reach 20 billion yuan by 2030 [3] - The solid-state battery sector is seen as a "0-1" industry trend, with potential for significant capital inflow if positive industry changes occur [3] Group 3: PCB Industry Growth - The PCB industry is entering a growth cycle driven by AI applications, with expectations for simultaneous increases in both volume and price [4] - Copper-clad laminates, which account for approximately 27% of PCB cost structure, are critical materials for PCB manufacturing [4] - High-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates are expected to see rapid demand growth due to applications in AI and 5G [4] Group 4: Computing Power Chain Investment - OpenAI and Meta are increasing investments in AI infrastructure, with OpenAI planning a data center in India using over 1 GW of power and Meta planning to invest $600 billion in U.S. data centers by 2028 [5] - The ongoing expansion of global computing power demand is likely to benefit leading optical module companies [5] Group 5: Domestic Intelligent Driving Chip Market - The development of the intelligent driving sector is becoming a core function in the automotive industry, with significant advancements expected by 2025 [6] - Domestic intelligent driving chip suppliers are poised for accelerated market share growth due to competitive pricing and production experience [6] - The trend of domestic substitution is expected to further enhance the market position of local chip manufacturers [6]

Market Overview - A-shares major indices rose last week, with trading volume remaining high [1] - Among 31 Shenwan first-level industries, communication, electronics, and comprehensive sectors performed relatively well [1] Macroeconomic Data Analysis - In July, national general public budget revenue reached 20,273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with central and local revenues growing by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively, marking the highest monthly growth this year [3] - Government fund revenue in July increased by 8.9% year-on-year, while government fund expenditure growth was 42.4% [3] - The first account revenue showed positive tax revenue growth for four consecutive months, while non-tax revenue declined [3] - Land transfer revenue continued to grow positively, linked to local governments actively selling quality land [3] - Overall, broad fiscal expenditure maintained positive year-on-year growth supported by government debt, with net financing close to 8 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 4.3 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] Stock Market Strategy Outlook - The market showed strong fluctuations last week, with liquidity remaining ample and a bullish trend supported by technology leaders [7] - Despite some concerns about economic data and stimulus expectations, favorable factors are outweighing these worries, with a supportive monetary policy environment [7] - The market is expected to maintain upward momentum without significant adjustments in August, with attention shifting to macro catalysts and trading indicators in September [7] Industry Insights - For defensive dividend sectors, it is recommended to reduce allocation or adjust the structure in the short term, favoring cyclical sectors with expected rebounds [9] - Focus on dividend stocks with catalysts, as well as stable and defensive attributes in Hong Kong stocks, financials, utilities, and precious metals [9] - In offensive sectors, technology remains a key focus, with opportunities arising from domestic policy stability and U.S. policy fluctuations [9] - Opportunities in domestic demand, technology, and overseas expansion are highlighted, with a focus on undervalued index-weighted stocks for potential capital inflows [8][9]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market index is not overly expensive, as the valuation metrics suggest there is still room for growth despite recent highs [1][10][17] - The analysis highlights that the "Sharpe ratio differential" between equity and bond funds is near zero, indicating potential for further upward movement in the market [1][17] - Recent data shows a significant decrease in household deposits, with a reduction of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, suggesting a shift of funds into the market [1][21] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that single valuation indicators reaching their peak should be approached with caution, as a lack of divergence in valuations typically signals a market top [2][28][30] - The current PB (Price-to-Book) ratio for the A-share market is below 80% of its historical range, indicating that the market is not excessively valued when viewed through this lens [2][31] - The report suggests that the "buy the dip" strategy is particularly effective during upward economic cycles, with specific entry points identified after a 15-20% pullback from previous highs [3][43][42] Group 3 - The report identifies sectors with high earnings growth potential, such as semiconductors and innovative pharmaceuticals, as suitable for the "buy the dip" strategy [3][43][47] - It notes that industries with a PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth) ratio below 1.5 and a projected growth rate above 30% are favorable for investment [3][52][47] - The analysis indicates that sectors with stable earnings and low volatility, such as food processing and pharmaceuticals, are also worth monitoring for investment opportunities [52][52]

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, reaching new highs, with the CSI 1000 index rising by 2.11%, outperforming other major indices such as the CSI A50 and ChiNext, which increased by 0.64% and 0.49% respectively [12][13] - There was a significant reversal in market style, with cyclical stocks rebounding strongly while the previously resilient consumer style lagged behind [12][13] - All market capitalization styles saw gains, with mid-cap and small-cap indices performing notably better than large-cap indices [12][13] - The performance of core assets and leading growth stocks showed divergence, with the "Ning" combination slightly increasing by 0.07% and the "Mao" index rising by 0.89% [12][13] Industry Analysis - The market's upward movement was primarily driven by event-driven thematic trading, with the defense and military industry leading with a 5.93% increase, followed by significant gains in non-ferrous metals and machinery [4][13] - The defense sector's rise was fueled by China Shipbuilding's announcement on August 5 regarding a stock swap merger with China State Shipbuilding Corporation, which sparked expectations of large-scale restructuring among military-listed companies [4][13] - The only sectors that saw declines were pharmaceuticals, computers, retail, and social services [4][13] Future Outlook and Investment Views - The report emphasizes the importance of both rhythm and direction during the current gap between policy and performance, noting that the recent Central Political Bureau meeting did not indicate large-scale stimulus plans, and the focus will shift more towards demand recovery rather than supply-side reductions [29][30] - The current market rally, which began at the end of June, can be understood as a two-phase structure driven by bank dividends and the transition from "anti-involution" themes, but the potential for further gains may be limited as the appeal of bank dividends diminishes [29][30] - The report suggests a return to growth trading, with individual stock alpha logic taking precedence over industry beta logic, highlighting opportunities for valuation recovery in technology growth sectors such as AI applications, computing power chains, and optical modules [30]