投资策略 | 定期报告 回调不改震荡徐行之势 策略周报 20251123 研究结论 ⚫ 核心观点：短期市场陷入调整，市场情绪较为低迷，我们认为指数下行空间有限， 年末调整是布局来年的好契机，重点布局中盘蓝筹。 ⚫ 大势研判：短期回调不改震荡徐行之势 短期市场调整较多，内外因兼有，外因是 12 月海外无风险利率下行预期的下修，内 因是高风险偏好投资者的风险偏好下行速度快于低风险偏好投资者的风险偏好上行 速度。短期展望上看，外因可能有所缓解，美国纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周五发表讲 话后，押注再次转向更高的降息概率，我们认为最迟 12 月美联储议息落地后，海外 无风险利率下行的预期会再度上修；内因方面，高风险投资者风险偏好下行速度会 趋缓，然后用更低的速率慢慢向中间靠拢。 总结来说，我们维持上周对未来大势的判断，未来一段时间：盈利预期平稳+无风险 利率预期不变或略微上行+风险评价预期略微下行+风险偏好向中间收敛，指数仍将 维持"有涨有跌，横盘震荡，略微走强"的状态。 ⚫ 行业比较：中盘蓝筹布局正当时 从 2023 年 3 月到现在，科技+红利两端走的行情已成市场一致性预期。展望未 来，我们认为风险风格两端走行情走向尾声 ...

Core Viewpoint - Three Squirrels is seeking to expand its market presence through a Hong Kong IPO, aiming to revitalize its performance after a period of decline in the A-share market [1][2] Company Overview - Three Squirrels has received approval for its Hong Kong IPO, planning to issue up to 81.548 million shares within 12 months of the filing [1] - The company, originally focused on nut snacks, has attempted to pivot towards coffee and maternal and infant products to find new growth avenues [2][7] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Three Squirrels reported revenue of 5.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.94%, but net profit fell by 52.22% to 138 million yuan [3] - The company's cash flow from operating activities saw a drastic decline of 1075.08%, resulting in a negative cash flow of 377 million yuan [4] - Revenue has decreased from 9.794 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.115 billion yuan in 2023, a nearly one-third drop over three years [4] Market Challenges - The company faces challenges due to rising costs and increased competition, particularly as traditional snack brands adapt to online sales [5][6] - Sales expenses reached 1.119 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a net profit margin of only 2.47%, indicating a struggle to maintain profitability [6] Strategic Initiatives - Three Squirrels has launched a coffee brand and expanded into the maternal and infant product sector, with the new brand "Little Deer Blue" generating 437 million yuan in revenue in the first half of the year [7] - The company is exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, as part of its growth strategy [7] Industry Context - The trend of A+H share listings is gaining momentum among consumer companies, driven by regulatory support and the need for improved liquidity and valuation [8][12] - The current market environment for consumer stocks is characterized by stricter primary market reviews and weaker secondary market performance, prompting companies to seek dual listings [12]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the rising popularity of Chinese snacks and beverages in international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and South Korea, where they have become trendy and sought after by local consumers [6][10][20] - Wahaha is set to rebrand as "Wah Xiaozong" next year, which has sparked mixed reactions among fans, with some expressing nostalgia and others criticizing the name change [2] - Ice tea, once considered a "working-class drink" in China, has gained a new status in South Korea, where over 30 Korean female celebrities have become its unofficial endorsers [4][10] Group 2 - Chinese snacks like spicy strips and melon seeds have gained significant traction overseas, with brands like Yanjinpuzi earning 516 million yuan from international sales last year, marking a 7.7% increase [8][39] - The price of Chinese spicy strips has skyrocketed in the U.S., with a 65g pack selling for $16.99, significantly higher than domestic prices, indicating a strong demand [10][18] - The popularity of Chinese snacks has led to the emergence of imitation products in foreign markets, showcasing their influence and acceptance [12][18] Group 3 - The success of Chinese snacks abroad is attributed to effective marketing strategies, including leveraging social media influencers and adapting products to local tastes [21][22][31] - Brands like Qiaqia and Wangwang have established production bases in countries like Vietnam and Thailand, facilitating their entry into local markets [43][45] - The article emphasizes that the future of the overseas market for Chinese snacks is promising, as the strategies used by foreign brands to enter China are now being applied in reverse [49][50]

Core Viewpoint - Wanchen Group has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to leverage its unique business model and efficient operational system to solidify its leading position in China's snack and beverage market [1] Financial Performance - The group's total revenue is projected to grow from 9.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 32.33 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 247.9% [1] - For the six months ending June 30, 2025, the group reported revenue of 22.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 106.9%, with an adjusted net profit of 920 million yuan [1] Market Presence - As of June 30, 2025, Wanchen Group operates over 15,000 stores across 29 provinces in China, establishing a significant scale advantage with deep penetration in high-consumption areas like the Yangtze River Delta [1] - The group has accumulated over 150 million registered members by August 31, 2025, indicating a strong customer base [1] Supply Chain Efficiency - Wanchen Group has achieved high supply chain efficiency by sourcing approximately 95% of its products directly from brand manufacturers, reducing intermediary levels [1] - The company operates 51 ambient warehouses and 13 cold chain warehouses, allowing for a replenishment cycle of "T+1" for most stores, which enhances cost advantages passed on to consumers [1] Product Strategy - The company has a professional procurement team of over 200 members and utilizes a proprietary digital selection system to curate a product pool of over 4,000 SKUs, with each store offering 1,800 to 2,200 SKUs [2] - Wanchen Group maintains a high frequency of new product launches, averaging about 250 new SKUs per month in the first half of 2025, ensuring freshness and responsiveness to market trends [2] Store Experience - The "Haoxianglai" stores are designed to integrate shopping, entertainment, and social interaction, featuring bright, spacious, and standardized layouts for a consistent high-quality experience nationwide [2] - The store displays are tailored to different consumer scenarios, including campus and community stores, and include new categories such as IP licensed products, refrigerated foods, and short-shelf-life baked goods to meet one-stop shopping needs [2] Fundraising Purpose - The funds raised from the Hong Kong listing will be used for further expansion and upgrading of the store network, enriching the product portfolio, enhancing warehousing and logistics efficiency, and upgrading digital infrastructure [2]

Industry Trends Analysis - The report identifies four core directions in the snack and beverage industry: holistic health, emotional value, diversified scenarios, and cultural fusion innovation [1][2][3][4]. - Holistic health is emphasized as consumers increasingly prioritize natural ingredients and functional attributes, with significant growth in low-sugar and additive-free products expected in 2024 [1]. - Emotional value is driving a shift from mere satiation to self-pleasure, with social attributes and emotional connections becoming key selling points [2]. - The diversification of consumption scenarios is leading to increased demand for portable snacks and ready-to-drink beverages that cater to various settings [3]. - Cultural fusion, incorporating local flavors and traditional elements, is emerging as a highlight in product innovation, significantly boosting social media engagement [4]. Market Insights - The analysis reveals differentiated growth dynamics across various categories, with ready-to-drink beverages, dairy products, low-alcohol drinks, and snacks showing distinct trends [5][6][7][8]. - Ready-to-drink beverages, particularly large bottled coffee and fruit-flavored drinks, are gaining popularity, with e-commerce channels seeing a 267% increase in sales volume [5]. - Dairy products are trending towards premiumization and functional benefits, with A2-β casein products capturing market share due to their nutritional advantages [6]. - Low-alcohol beverages are experiencing growth driven by emotional release and social drinking scenarios, particularly among young women [7]. - The snack category is accelerating its health transformation, with a strong focus on sugar-free and non-fried products, while traditional snacks need flavor innovation to attract consumers [8]. Innovative Solutions - Flywheel's TrendCloud platform integrates data across e-commerce and social media to provide comprehensive market insights, aiding brands in identifying opportunities [9]. - The platform utilizes AI and knowledge graphs to enhance consumer understanding and product positioning, enabling brands to respond effectively to market demands [9]. - Customized reports are provided to over 5,000 clients, helping them optimize pricing strategies and market entry approaches, with some brands achieving an 80% increase in sales post-launch [9]. Summary - The snack and beverage industry is transitioning from a traffic-driven model to a value-driven approach, necessitating brands to leverage data tools for deep consumer insights [10]. - Companies must focus on health functionality, emotional experiences, and cultural expressions to differentiate themselves in the competitive landscape of 2025 [10].