长江证券研报指出，泸州老窖2025H1实现归母净利润76.63 亿元，同比下降4.54%；2025Q2归母净利润 30.7亿元，同比下降11.1%。分产品结构来看，2025年上半年公司中高档酒类实现收入150.48亿元，同 比下滑1.09%，实现销量2.41万吨，同比增长13.33%，销售均价62.39万元/吨，同比下降12.72%。公司 去库存效果较好，未来有望轻装上阵。受需求端波动的影响，行业整体面临一定的压力，从历史来看， 降低增速预期&维护渠道健康是缓解库存周期波动的正解。当前公司开始逐步协助经销商去化库存，目 前效果相对较好，长期看，公司双轮驱动的格局以及腰部产品逐步复苏的趋势仍在延续。预计公司 2025/2026年EPS为8.44/8.86元，对应最新PE 为17/16倍，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 16.454 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.650 billion yuan, a decline of 4.3% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 7.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.97%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.07 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.055 billion yuan, a decline of 11.24% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company has effectively managed inventory reduction, which is expected to allow for a more agile operational approach moving forward. The company is assisting distributors in inventory clearance, showing positive results [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company’s mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated revenue of 15.048 billion yuan, a decline of 1.09% year-on-year, with sales volume of 24,100 tons, an increase of 13.33% year-on-year, and an average selling price of 623,900 yuan per ton, down 12.72% year-on-year [9]. - The ordinary liquor segment reported revenue of 1.350 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.96% year-on-year, with sales volume of 24,800 tons, down 6.89% year-on-year, and an average selling price of 54,400 yuan per ton, down 10.82% year-on-year [9]. - The company's net profit margin decreased by 0.91 percentage points to 46.57%, and the gross margin fell by 1.48 percentage points to 87.09% [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 8.44 yuan and 8.86 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 and 16 times [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 16.454 billion yuan, down 2.67% year-on-year, and net profit at 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% year-on-year [1][5] - The company is focusing on high-quality development and has set a goal for stable revenue growth despite the current weak consumption environment in the liquor industry [2][5] - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor sales showed resilience, with a 13.33% increase in volume to 24,100 tons, while other liquor categories saw a decline in both volume and revenue [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.102 billion yuan, down 7.97% year-on-year, and net profit of 3.070 billion yuan, down 11.10% year-on-year [1][2] - The gross margin for mid-to-high-end liquor decreased by 1.23 percentage points to 91.03%, while the gross margin for other liquor categories fell by 10.55 percentage points to 44.33% [1][2] Channel Performance - Traditional channels saw a revenue decline of 3.99% to 15.465 billion yuan, while emerging channels experienced a growth of 27.55% to 0.932 billion yuan [2] - The gross margin for traditional channels decreased by 1.69 percentage points, while emerging channels improved by 4.52 percentage points [2] Future Outlook - The company aims to stabilize its revenue and maintain a focus on high-quality development, with an EPS forecast of 8.52, 9.04, and 9.72 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][4] - The company’s contract liabilities increased by 50.72% to 3.53 billion yuan by the end of H1 2025, indicating a positive outlook for future revenue [2]

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has reported its first decline in both revenue and net profit in nearly a decade, marking a significant turning point for the company [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Luzhou Laojiao achieved revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.67% compared to the same period last year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 4.54% to 7.663 billion yuan, with a non-recurring profit of 7.650 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year [1]. - Earnings per share decreased by 4.58% to 5.21 yuan, and the net operating cash flow was 6.065 billion yuan, down 26.27% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter saw revenue and net profit drop to 7.102 billion yuan and 3.070 billion yuan, respectively, representing declines of 7.97% and 11.1% year-on-year [1]. Market Analysis - Analysts from 12 brokerages expressed a generally pessimistic outlook on Luzhou Laojiao, with Shenwan Hongyuan Securities lowering its net profit forecast for the next three years, predicting a reduction from 13.53 billion yuan to 11.79 billion yuan for 2025, a decline of 11.13% [2]. - The company attributed its performance decline to industry-wide factors, including a transformation in consumption structure and intensified competition in the liquor market [2]. Product Structure - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other categories declined, with mid-to-high-end liquor generating 15.048 billion yuan, down 1.09%, and other liquor generating 1.35 billion yuan, down 16.96% [5]. - Sales volume for mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 13.33%, while other liquor products saw a decline of 6.89% [5]. - The average price per ton for mid-to-high-end liquor fell by 12.72% to 623,900 yuan, and for other liquor, it decreased by 10.82% to 54,400 yuan [5]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao has adjusted its marketing expenses, reducing online, offline, and television advertising while increasing promotional expenses by 11.2% [5]. - The company is focusing on maintaining sales through promotions despite rising logistics and labor costs [5]. Innovation and Product Development - In response to consumer demand for lower-alcohol, healthier, and diversified products, Luzhou Laojiao is innovating and developing new drinking methods, including the 28-degree Guojiao 1573 [6]. - The company plans to shift resources towards mainstream mid-to-high-end products and is actively entering the high-growth light bottle liquor segment [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 12.41 billion, 13.37 billion, and 14.57 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -7.86%, 7.72%, and 8.93% [4] Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 7.102 billion yuan, a decline of 7.97% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.070 billion yuan, down 11.10% year-on-year [1] - The sales volume of mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 13.33% year-on-year, while the average price per ton of liquor decreased by 4.66% [2] - Emerging channel revenue grew significantly, with traditional and emerging channel revenues at 15.465 billion and 932 million yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -3.99% and +27.55% [2] - The company's contract liabilities increased by 50.72% year-on-year, reaching 3.529 billion yuan by the end of the first half of 2025 [2] Financial Performance Summary - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 87.09%, down 1.48 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 46.57%, down 0.92 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The second quarter of 2025 reported a gross profit margin of 87.86% and a net profit margin of 43.23%, with tax and additional charges accounting for 15.39% of total revenue, an increase of 3.72 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 63.294 billion yuan in 2023 to 88.320 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a steady increase in asset base [11]

Core Insights - Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd. reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue at 16.454 billion yuan, down 2.67% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 6.064 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 26.27% year-on-year [2] - Revenue from traditional channels was 15.465 billion yuan, showing a decline of 3.99%, while revenue from emerging channels reached 0.932 billion yuan, an increase of 27.55% [2] Product Segmentation - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 15.048 billion yuan, down 1.09% year-on-year, while other liquor categories generated 1.35 billion yuan, down 16.96% year-on-year [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 6.893 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.88 billion yuan, down 29.86% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 9.352 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, with a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor revenue in 2024 was 27.585 billion yuan, an increase of 2.77% year-on-year, while other liquor revenue was 3.467 billion yuan, up 7.15% year-on-year [10]. - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan, with a payout ratio of no less than 65%, 70%, and 75% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a minimum total dividend of 8.5 billion yuan (including tax) [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 31.196 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan [2][10]. - Q4 2024 showed a significant decline in revenue and profit compared to the previous year [2][10]. - Q1 2025 demonstrated a slight recovery in revenue and profit [2][10]. Product and Channel Analysis - Mid-to-high-end liquor sales contributed significantly to revenue growth, while other liquor categories also saw positive growth [10]. - Traditional channels generated 29.573 billion yuan in revenue, up 3.2% year-on-year, while emerging channels contributed 1.479 billion yuan, an increase of 4.16% [10]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.63 percentage points to 43.19%, and the gross margin fell by 0.76 percentage points to 87.54% [10]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin further declined by 0.67 percentage points to 49.11% [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable growth, with projected EPS of 9.44 yuan and 10.03 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 13.3 and 12.5 times [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao [6] Core Views - Luzhou Laojiao's total revenue for 2024 is projected at 31.196 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.71% increase [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, with a total cash dividend amounting to 8.758 billion yuan, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of approximately 65% [1] - The company aims for a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% in 2024, 70% in 2025, and 75% in 2026, with a minimum annual cash dividend of 8.5 billion yuan [1] Revenue and Growth - In 2024, the revenue growth rate has slowed down, with mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor revenues at 27.585 billion yuan and 3.467 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 2.77% and 7.15% [2] - For Q1 2025, total revenue is 9.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, aligning with market expectations [2] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 is 87.54% and 86.51% respectively, with a slight decline compared to the previous year [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 is 43.19%, reflecting a decrease of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 13.857 billion yuan and 14.989 billion yuan, representing a 15% and 18% reduction from previous estimates [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 9.41 yuan, 10.18 yuan, and 11.00 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [4]