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以史为鉴
付鹏的财经世界· 2026-01-02 08:14
我放这个数据 , 主要是想表达的是 , 当前的时代和 上世纪 70 年代、 80 年代相比,具有非常强的 共 性。所以在这种背景下,我们说 这种所谓的叫 双重金属,既具有 " 国家战略安全属性 " ,还具备着生产力进步 、 新的科技进步对其需求提振 。 它具备双重金属的特 征,它会表现出价格的异常。 这个情况其实在 70 年代到 80 年代,其实都在这些金属上爆发过。之所以提,因为过去的几年的时间里, 我觉得我们跟当年的这个时代其实有着非常大的一个相同性。 我在 2016 年 写 《 见证逆潮 》 初稿 的时候,其实就提到过这两个时代的雷同,本质上来讲都是科技在经历战争或者经历 停滞 的大阶 段,像美国大概从 1965 年一直到 1980 年之间 , 进入到 长期 的全要素生产率 停滞 阶段。 我们 目前所处 这个阶段中,逆全球化的特 征 —— 或者 说 右 翼 化的特征会比较明显 , 同时地缘政治 比较 紧张, 而 科技的进步和新的生产力正在逐渐产生 。 在 上世纪 60 年代到 80 年代的阶段中,其实是完全一样的。工业时代带来的生产力红利已经结束,生产关系的错配正在产生。全球的右 翼化和冷战的这种思潮在 ...
越南举办2025年互联网日活动
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-12-19 12:36
越南互联网协会主席武黄连指出,在新技术滥用、网络诈骗多发背景下,构建一个可信赖的数字空间已 成为当前最大挑战。今后,越南将推动互联网朝着安全、人文和可信方向发展,以信任为基础,以创新 为动力,以制度为支柱,更有效地服务国家经济社会发展。 范表示,经过近30年发展,互联网已成为越南经济社会生活中不可或缺的基础设施。进入新发展阶段, 互联网建设重点不再只是扩大规模或提升速度,而是迈向可持续发展,更好地服务于快速、包容和可持 续增长。国际排名数据显示,截至2025年10月,越南固定宽带互联网速度位居全球第10位,移动宽带互 联网速度排名第15位。5G网络覆盖全国59%人口,为发展数字经济、数字政府和数字社会奠定重要基 础。 越通社12月17日报道,越南互联网协会、越南互联网中心及多家科技企业当日在河内联合举办2025年互 联网日活动,主题为"构建可信数字空间",越南科技部副部长范德龙出席活动。 ...
从来没有自由的“互联网”,有的都是“互拦网”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-02 08:20
Group 1 - The article discusses the relationship between media technology and social conditions, emphasizing that the invention and use of media are products of societal needs rather than the other way around [4][5]. - It highlights the delayed popularization of television post-World War II, attributing it to societal conditions and the lack of demand from the middle class at that time [5][9]. - The concept of "mobile privatization" is introduced, explaining how modern society's need for personal space while being mobile led to the development of technologies like cars, radio, and television [7][9]. Group 2 - The article presents the case of Chile's Cybersyn project, initiated during a socialist reform period, aiming to manage the economy through a cybernetic system despite limited technological resources [12][16]. - It contrasts this with the Soviet Union's OGAS project, which sought to implement a nationwide automated system for managing the planned economy but ultimately failed due to bureaucratic inefficiencies [21][26]. - The article concludes that political conditions can either promote or hinder technological development, as seen in the contrasting outcomes of the Cybersyn and OGAS projects [29][30]. Group 3 - The article discusses how the internet's development in the U.S. was driven by corporate needs for efficiency and management, supported by favorable political and economic policies [30][31]. - It notes that the initial internet infrastructure was influenced by military needs, showcasing how war can spur technological advancements [32]. - Cultural factors, such as the countercultural movements of the 1960s, also played a significant role in shaping the values and characteristics of the early internet [33][35]. Group 4 - The article mentions Cuba's unique approach to internet access, where citizens developed a system of sharing information through hard drives due to high costs and government restrictions on internet use [38][40]. - This case illustrates the adaptability of individuals in response to technological limitations and government control, creating a customized version of internet access [40][41].
好评中国|共享共治,让互联网更好造福人类
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-11-09 05:03
Core Points - The 2025 World Internet Conference in Wuzhen, Zhejiang, focuses on building an open, cooperative, and secure digital future, emphasizing the theme of constructing a community with a shared future in cyberspace [1][2] - Over 1,600 guests from more than 130 countries and regions attended the conference, highlighting the global engagement in digital economy and cultural heritage preservation [1][2] - As of June 2025, China's internet user base reached 1.123 billion, with an internet penetration rate of 79.7%, showcasing the significant growth and integration of the internet in daily life [1] Group 1 - The conference aims to promote a fair and reasonable order in global cyberspace through collaborative development, security maintenance, governance participation, and shared benefits [1] - The concept of a community with a shared future in cyberspace has evolved from an idea to actionable initiatives over the past decade [1][2] - The event serves as a platform for international cooperation, emphasizing China's role as a responsible major power in advancing global internet development and peace [2] Group 2 - New activities introduced at the conference include theoretical seminars and dialogues on cutting-edge technologies, aimed at injecting momentum into the construction of a networked community [2] - The internet is portrayed as a bridge for communication among different countries and civilizations, fostering inclusivity and mutual learning [2] - China's commitment to sharing the benefits of internet development and maintaining order in cyberspace is reinforced through the hosting of this conference [2]
AI是一场知识的通量革命
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 00:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that technology embedded in systems, rather than the technology itself, drives economic progress, reshaping the flow of resources, energy, information, and knowledge [2][3][4] - A new paradigm for assessing technology value focuses on how it reorganizes economic dimensions—scale, space, and time, emphasizing the importance of flow rather than the capabilities of the technology itself [4][5] Group 2 - Cold chain technology significantly improved the flow of meat by concentrating slaughtering and utilizing refrigeration for transportation, leading to economies of scale, density, and time [5][6] - Container shipping revolutionized cargo flow by enhancing loading efficiency and reducing transportation costs, facilitated by a connected system of mechanized ports and standardized practices [5][6] - The internet transformed information flow into a new economic growth engine, reducing the cost of information exchange to nearly zero and redefining commercial boundaries and social collaboration [6][7] Group 3 - The emergence of intelligent agents represents a breakthrough in overcoming knowledge flow bottlenecks, enabling autonomous actions and enhancing knowledge generation and collaboration [6][7] - The evolution of knowledge flow requires institutional and infrastructural innovations, including redefining intellectual property and establishing reliable computing environments [7][8] - The core of competition in the intelligent era will hinge on the speed and depth of knowledge transformation into action, rather than mere information possession [8]
超智能的未来人类做什么
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-09-14 02:04
Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the workforce, questioning whether AI will be a "friendly colleague" or a "cold replacement" for humans [1][2] - Experts predict that within 5 to 20 years, AI and robots may surpass human capabilities in cost, intelligence, and creativity, potentially automating or fundamentally changing 98% of existing jobs [2] - Historical context suggests that technological advancements have not led to long-term unemployment, as new supply often creates new demand, exemplified by past innovations like radio and the internet [2] Group 2 - The article raises the question of what types of work humans will engage in when AI and robots excel in various fields, suggesting that human emotional connections and creative expressions will define future job roles [3] - It posits that traditional work structures, such as the 9-to-5 model, will eventually fade, shifting identity from "where you work" to "what you do," allowing for more flexible work environments [3] - The evolution of technology will reshape labor market dynamics, diminishing the employer's role as the sole selector and empowering skilled professionals, leading to a collaborative network of diverse talents [4] Group 3 - The future labor market will consist of a "human cloud" of freelancers working alongside "AI clouds" and "robot clouds," creating a flexible resource pool for employers [4]
中国与上合成员国货物贸易上半年“成绩单”出炉 区域经济合作取得新进展
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-08-20 07:21
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that trade between China and other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has shown steady growth, with a trade volume of $247.7 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1][3] - Over the past five years, trade volume between China and SCO member countries has consistently surpassed $300 billion, $400 billion, and $500 billion, reaching a historical high of $512.4 billion in 2024, which represents a growth of 2.7% compared to the previous year [6][8] Group 2 - China primarily exports electromechanical products, automobiles and parts, clothing, and chemicals to other member countries, while importing oil and gas, agricultural products, coal, and minerals [6] - As of June 2025, China's direct investment stock in other member countries exceeds $40 billion, with investments expanding from traditional sectors like energy and infrastructure to emerging fields such as digital economy and green development [10] - Chinese enterprises are implementing clean energy projects in regional countries, including wind, solar, and hydropower, and are accelerating cooperation in areas like 5G, internet, and smart cities to assist local traditional industries in upgrading [10]
大湾区包括哪些地方,经济有什么特点?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-20 11:33
Group 1 - The Greater Bay Area (GBA) refers to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, which includes Hong Kong, Macau, and nine cities in Guangdong Province, covering a total area of 56,000 square kilometers and a population exceeding 80 million [2][10] - The GBA is one of the most open and economically vibrant regions in China, characterized by its strong international economic connections, particularly through Hong Kong as a global financial hub and Macau as a tourism center [5][4] - The region's economy is marked by four key characteristics: strong ties to the global economy, industrial diversification, robust innovation capabilities, and significant collaborative development advantages among cities [5][7][8] Group 2 - The GBA's industrial landscape is diverse, encompassing finance, technology, manufacturing, and services, with notable contributions from major companies like Huawei and Tencent in the tech sector [7][4] - The area boasts a strong innovation ecosystem, supported by numerous universities and government policies that encourage research and development, with R&D investment in Shenzhen consistently above 4% of GDP [7][8] - Collaborative development is a significant advantage, with Hong Kong and Macau providing international services and funding, while mainland cities offer market access and industrial support [8][10]
从科技革命到AI竞争:大国崛起的关键变量
经济观察报· 2025-07-14 10:34
Historical Logic: Evolution of Technology Centers - The rise of global powers has historically been closely linked to technological revolutions [2][6] - The transfer of global scientific centers has occurred approximately every 80 years, following a pattern from Italy to the US [5] - Technological innovation is a precursor to economic, political, cultural, and military centers, marking the first step in a nation's rise [7] Economic Logic: Leap in Economic Paradigms - Technological revolutions do not automatically lead to industrial revolutions; a significant leap is required for transformation [9] - General Purpose Technologies (GPT) are crucial for achieving economic paradigm shifts and transitioning from technological to industrial revolutions [10][11] - GPTs are characterized by universal applicability, complementary innovations, and technological dynamism, playing a vital role in national economic ascendance [12] Political Logic: Rise of Great Powers - Economic and technological advancements lead to the concentration of international power, facilitating the rise of great powers [14] - The emergence of new paradigms can shift global power centers, driven by the adoption of GPTs [16] - Infrastructure development is essential for nations to seize opportunities presented by technological changes [18] Era Logic: International Competition in AI - The current global landscape features multiple technology and economic centers, leading to complex competitive dynamics [28] - The fourth industrial revolution is occurring within a fragmented international economic system, affecting trade and economic strategies [32] - The transition from platform economy to intelligent economy highlights the need for nations to adapt and seize AI opportunities [33] AI International Competition - The integration of new technologies is reshaping traditional production models and fostering new economic ecosystems [35] - The collaboration between industries and technology systems is becoming a key factor in economic competition [35] - Industries are increasingly becoming the main drivers of technological innovation, surpassing academic contributions in fields like artificial intelligence [35]
从科技革命到AI竞争:大国崛起的关键变量
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-07-12 00:12
Group 1: Historical Logic of Technological Evolution - The rise of global powers has historically been linked to technological revolutions, with a focus on the evolution of global scientific centers [3][4] - The "Takahashi phenomenon" indicates that global scientific centers have shifted approximately every 80 years, following a pattern from Italy to the US [3][4] - Technological innovation is a precursor to economic, political, and cultural dominance, serving as the first step in the rise of great powers [3][4] Group 2: Economic Logic of Paradigm Shifts - Technological revolutions do not automatically lead to industrial revolutions; a significant leap is required for commercialization and industrialization [5][6] - General Purpose Technologies (GPT) are crucial for achieving economic paradigm shifts, enabling the transition from technological to industrial revolutions [6][7] - Historical examples illustrate that the widespread application of GPT is key to economic transformation and societal advancement [6][7] Group 3: Political Logic of Power Dynamics - Economic and technological advancements lead to the concentration of international power, facilitating the rise of great powers [7][8] - The emergence of new paradigms can shift global power centers, with GPT playing a significant role in this transition [9][10] - Infrastructure development is essential for leveraging technological changes, as seen in historical examples of maritime and rail advancements [11][12] Group 4: Era of AI International Competition - The current global landscape features multiple technological and economic centers, complicating competitive dynamics [16][17] - The transition from platform economy to intelligent economy marks a significant shift, with countries like China seizing opportunities in emerging technologies [17][18] - The integration of new technologies is reshaping traditional industries and creating new economic ecosystems, emphasizing the importance of collaborative development [18]