配置力量支撑仍在，关注品种和条款下沉 [Table_Authors] 王宇辰(分析师) 信用债市场周度回顾 260301 本报告导读： 票息策略与套息空间确定性仍较高，信用债配置力量有支撑。 投资要点： 010-83939801 wangyuchen4@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880523020004 张紫睿(分析师) 021-23185652 zhangzirui@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880525040068 [Table_Report] 相关报告 产权弱势，缩量走低 2026.03.01 三月债市能平稳吗：几个关键点 2026.03.01 高位震荡延续，低估值防守为先 2026.02.28 2025 银行经营指标拆解：分层扩张 vs趋同修复 2026.02.25 票息行情未止：接续力量和可挖掘的标的 2026.02.24 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 周 报 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.02 [Table_Summary] 票息策略有效性与套息空间确定性仍较高，信用抗跌属性持续。从 历史经验看，信用债抗跌性较强，与负债端稳定 ...

报告导读： 博弈偏股条款，挖掘偏高利差。 产业永续债的发行主要以降低企业杠杆率为目标，过去有两轮发行与净融资的高峰 。 （ 1 ） 2018 年 -2020 年，《关于加强国有企业资产负债约束的指导 意见》的落地，推动国有企业平均资产负债率到 2020 年年末比 2017 年年末降低 2 个百分点左右，产业永续债发行规模逐年抬升，每年的净融资规模在 4000 亿元左右。（ 2 ） 2023 年至今，部分资产负债率较高的央国企仍有降负债需求，利差收窄背景下企业发行动力抬升，每年净融资规模在 2000- 3000 亿元之间。叠加产业永续债偿还规模攀升，借新还旧的规模亦有所抬升，产业永续债的发行规模持续扩容， 2025 年创下发行规模新高。 近两年产业永续债发行期限中， 5+N 的占比有所抬升，发行期限的变化整体分为三个阶段 ： （ 1 ） 2018 年 -2020 年， 3+N 期限成为绝对主品种，连 续 3 年占比在 70% 以上，（ 2 ） 2021 年 -2023 年， 3+N 仍为主品种，但 2+N 占比抬升明显， 2022 年末的理财负反馈冲击信用债情绪，机构行为偏 好以短为主。（ 3 ） 2024 年 ...

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.12 本报告导读： 博弈偏股条款，挖掘偏高利差。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 产业永续债分析框架和机会挖掘 [Table_Authors] 王宇辰(分析师) 010-83939801 wangyuchen4@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880523020004 [Table_Report] 相关报告 如何择时股债对冲效率 2026.02.05 "做陡曲线"还是"宏观对冲"，基金参与国债期 货的两面 2026.02.01 如何理解 ONRRP 类工具与双向隔夜回购 2026.01.30 承接"存款搬家"，理财投了什么，收益如何 2026.01.30 债券 ETF 规模跃升之后：业绩归因、策略优化与 未来挑战 2026.01.29 债 券 研 究 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 产业永续债的发行主要以降低企业杠杆率为目标，过去有两轮发行 与净融资的高峰。（1）2018 年-2020 年，《关于加强国有企业资产负 债约束的指导意见》的落地，推动国有企业平均资产负债率到 2020 年年末比 2017 年 ...

Group 1 - The issuance of industrial perpetual bonds is primarily by high-rated entities, with an increase in issuance duration over the past two years. The main purpose of issuing these bonds is to reduce liabilities, predominantly by medium to high-rated central and state-owned enterprises in high-leverage industries. Since 2024, the issuance duration of industrial perpetual bonds has lengthened, with "3+N" still being the main issuance type, but the scale and proportion of "5+N" industrial perpetual bonds have significantly increased, possibly related to expectations of debt reduction and the overall lengthening of credit bond issuance duration [6][7]. - The spread of industrial perpetual bond varieties has widened to a high percentile, indicating opportunities for spread extraction. Since the second half of 2025, the spread of industrial perpetual bond varieties has continued to widen, influenced by two main factors: first, the marginal weakening of demand for perpetual bonds under the insurance I9 accounting standards, as the static coupon of perpetual bonds is weaker than that of dividend stocks; second, perpetual bonds are less likely to benefit from the expansion of credit bond ETFs due to stricter definitions of equity instruments. Currently, the spread of industrial perpetual bonds has widened to a high percentile since 2024, with the spread of varieties accounting for about 50% of the overall spread, reaching a high level since 2020. It is believed that institutional behavior will have limited further disturbance to industrial perpetual bonds, and attention should be paid to opportunities for spread extraction [7][8]. Group 2 - In the primary issuance market, net financing has increased. From January 19 to January 23, 2026, short-term financing bonds issued amounted to 128.06 billion yuan, with 86.04 billion yuan maturing; medium-term notes issued were 91.51 billion yuan, with 28.01 billion yuan maturing; corporate bonds issued were 1 billion yuan, with 4.1 billion yuan maturing; and company bonds issued were 102.05 billion yuan, with 52.55 billion yuan maturing. The total issuance of major credit bond varieties was 322.61 billion yuan, with 170.7 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net financing of 151.91 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week's net financing of 49.27 billion yuan [8]. - In the secondary trading market, transaction volume has increased, and most spreads have narrowed. From January 19 to January 23, 2026, the total transaction volume of major credit bond varieties (corporate bonds, company bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds) reached 931.2 billion yuan, an increase of 69.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The overall yield of medium-term notes has decreased, with the 3-year AAA medium-term note yield down by 3.43 basis points to 1.85%, the 3-year AA+ medium-term note yield down by 4.43 basis points to 1.93%, and the 3-year AA medium-term note yield down by 4.43 basis points to 2.08% [13][14].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference primarily discusses the bond market, focusing on the recovery trends observed since mid-January 2026, with specific attention to government bonds and credit bonds [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Recovery of the Bond Market - The bond market has shown signs of recovery due to three main factors: 1. **Stability of Government and Local Bonds**: The stability of interest rates for government bonds and local bonds has been crucial. The 10-year government bond has remained stable, not exceeding 1.9%, while local bonds have stayed below 2.5% [2]. 2. **Banking Sector Participation**: There has been an increase in bank allocations to bonds, particularly after the clarity of KPIs for banks in 2026. This has led to a stronger demand for bonds, especially those with shorter durations [3][4]. 3. **External Support Factors**: External factors such as the stagnation of equity markets and expectations of monetary easing have contributed to the bond market's recovery. The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) has also seen increased volumes, indicating a supportive monetary environment [4][5]. Future Market Outlook - The outlook for the bond market remains cautious but optimistic. Short-duration bonds are expected to perform well, while long-duration bonds may face more volatility. The market anticipates that the recovery could serve as a precedent for future bond market trends in 2026 [5][6]. - The potential for downward movement in interest rates exists, particularly for 10-year government bonds, if deposit rates continue to decline [5][6]. Risks and Challenges - The bond market may face challenges related to supply and demand mismatches, especially in the first and second quarters of 2026. The issuance of local bonds is expected to be high, which could lead to increased pressure on the market [9][10]. - The risk indicators for banks remain a concern, particularly for smaller banks, which may face stricter regulations and slower adjustments to their risk profiles [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on 10-year government bonds and certain credit bonds, particularly those with favorable yield spreads. The expectation is that these assets will provide stability and potential for appreciation in the current market environment [11][12]. - The discussion also highlights the potential for industry-specific perpetual bonds, particularly those issued by state-owned enterprises, which are seen as having a favorable risk-return profile [17][18]. Market Dynamics - The dynamics of the bond market are influenced by the behavior of institutional investors, with a noted shift towards increasing allocations in response to market conditions. The performance of convertible bonds is also highlighted, with expectations of continued demand despite some volatility [26][27]. Conclusion - The bond market is currently in a recovery phase, supported by stable interest rates, increased bank participation, and favorable external conditions. However, potential risks related to supply-demand mismatches and regulatory pressures on banks warrant careful monitoring. Investment strategies should focus on stable, shorter-duration bonds and select credit instruments to navigate the evolving landscape [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Credit bonds adjusted following interest rates, with medium - to long - term high - grade bonds having a larger upward amplitude. Credit spreads mostly declined, with medium - to long - end low - grade varieties having a larger compression amplitude [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads had limited changes, with spreads of external rating AAA and AA+ platforms generally up 1BP compared to last week, and AA - rated platforms remaining flat [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined overall, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds significantly decreased. Central and state - owned enterprise real estate bond spreads remained flat, while mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads dropped 15BP and private real estate bond spreads rose 7BP [2][17]. - Perpetual and secondary capital (Two - Yong) bonds performed weakly with rising spreads, and the yields of 3 - 5 - year high - grade varieties significantly increased [2][29]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds increased, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds narrowed [2][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Credit Bonds Adjusted Following Interest Rates, with Medium - to Long - Term High - Grade Bonds Having a Larger Upward Amplitude - Affected by the rising equity market and policies such as discount interest and state - owned enterprise purchases, interest - rate bonds weakened significantly this week. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased by 3BP, 4BP, 8BP, 7BP, and 8BP respectively [5]. - Credit bond yields also increased, with medium - to long - term high - grade varieties having a larger upward amplitude. For example, the yield of 1Y AAA - rated credit bonds increased by 2BP, and the yields of other grades increased by 3BP [5]. - Credit spreads mostly declined, with medium - to long - end low - grade varieties having a larger compression amplitude. Rating spreads and term spreads showed differentiation [5]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads Had Narrow Fluctuations - The spreads of external rating AAA and AA+ urban investment platforms generally increased by 1BP compared to last week, and AA - rated platforms remained flat. Most platform spreads changed within 1BP [9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial and municipal platforms generally remained flat, while the credit spreads of district - county platforms increased by 1BP [14]. 3.3 Industrial Bond Spreads Slightly Declined, and the Spreads of Mixed - Ownership Real Estate Bonds Significantly Decreased - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined overall. Central and state - owned enterprise real estate bond spreads remained flat, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads dropped 15BP due to events such as state - owned enterprise purchases, and private real estate bond spreads rose 7BP [17]. - The spreads of AAA and AA+ coal bonds decreased by 1BP respectively, and the spreads of AA - rated coal bonds remained flat. The spreads of AAA - rated steel bonds remained flat, and the spreads of AA+ - rated steel bonds decreased by 1BP. The spreads of all grades of chemical bonds decreased by 1BP [17]. 3.4 Two - Yong Bonds Performed Weakly with Rising Spreads, and the Yields of 3 - 5 - Year High - Grade Varieties Significantly Increased - This week, Two - Yong bonds performed weakly with rising spreads, and overall they performed worse than ordinary credit bond varieties. The yields of 3 - 5 - year high - grade varieties significantly increased [29]. - For 1Y bonds, the yields of all grades of secondary capital bonds increased by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads compressed by 0 - 1BP; the yields of all grades of perpetual bonds increased by 4BP, and the spreads increased by 1BP [29]. 3.5 The Excess Spreads of Industrial Perpetual Bonds Increased, and the Excess Spreads of Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Narrowed - This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA - rated 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 2.76BP to 10.17BP, at the 15.70% quantile since 2015. The excess spreads of industrial AAA - rated 5Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.01BP to 11.83BP, at the 23.40% quantile since 2015 [31]. - The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds decreased by 1.82BP to 3.34BP, at the 0.29% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 3.40BP to 7.51BP, at the 3.67% quantile [31]. 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Two - Yong spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term bill and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [38]. - The credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated by subtracting the yield to maturity of the same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by linear interpolation) from the ChinaBond valuation (exercise) of individual bonds, and then the industry or regional urban investment credit spreads are obtained by the arithmetic average method [38].