Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mixed during the night session, with the black series generally rising [1] - Coking coal increased by 1.96%, while thermal coal rose by 1.32% [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil rose by 1.21%, and fuel oil increased by 0.52% [1] Group 2 - In the chemical products sector, asphalt rose by 0.72%, and styrene increased by 0.12% [1] - In the oilseed and oil sector, soybean oil rose by 0.35%, and palm oil increased by 0.30% [1] - However, iron ore fell by 0.07%, rebar decreased by 0.10%, and hot-rolled coil dropped by 0.15% in the black series [1] Group 3 - In the chemical products sector, rubber decreased by 0.42%, and PVC fell by 0.48% [1] - In agricultural products, corn starch dropped by 1.05%, and corn decreased by 1.25% [1]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.11」 热轧卷板市场周报 炉料走高成本支撑 热卷期价强势上涨 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至7月11日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3273（+72），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3330（+50）。（单 位：元/吨） 2. 产量：热卷产量小幅下调。323.14（-5）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求有所回落，但仍运行在高位。本期表需322.51（-1.86），（同比-6.24）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库降，社库增，但幅度不大。总库存345.56（+0.63），（同比-78.56）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.74%，环比上周增加0.43个百分点，同比去年增加22.94个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 图2、热轧卷板跨期套利 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）6月份全球制造业采购经理指数为 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.07.11） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铝 日内观点：高位运行，运行区间：20500-20800 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19200-21000 参考策略：卖出AL2508-P-19300 核心逻辑： 1、 2 0 1 7年供给侧改革，规定我国电解铝产能上限为 4 5 0 0万吨。据阿拉丁资 讯，2025年5月我国电解铝运行产能为4413.9万吨，产能增加空间十分有限。供应端 为价格提供较强支撑。 2、社会库存方面，截至7月3日，SMM统计的5地电解铝社会库存为47.5万吨， 较上周增加1.40万吨。去年同期库存为77.4万吨。当前库存处于5年同期的最低位， 利好铝价。 3、1-5月份，汽车产销量分别完成1282.6万辆和1274.8万辆，同比分别增长 12.7%和10.9%。汽车市场表现向好，亦利好铝价。 黑色及建材板块 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1 策略早餐 日内观点：价格偏强运行 核心逻辑： 1、供应方面，钢材原料库存压力在7月中旬后有望出现边际缓解，或支撑炉料 价格和钢材生产成本阶段性企稳。铁矿方面，近期随着海外港口 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-07-11 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 特朗普再次表示对铜征收 50%的关税 观点分享： 据央视新闻报道，当地时间 7 月 9 日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上宣布，在收到 一份严格的国家安全评估报告后，他宣布美国对铜征收 50%的关税，自 2025 年 8 月 1 日起 生效。此前，8 日，特朗普称将对所有进口铜征收 50%的新关税。分析原因，主要是出于推 动美国本土铜生产、降低进口依赖的考量，但就如之前一系列对他国加税的举动，该政策可 能引发全球供应链连锁反应并损害多方利益，短期也必然引发铜价的混乱，却又难以缓解其 国内铜供应的问题。 所 长 首 推 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 期货研究 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | ★★★★ | 玻璃：短期偏强，中期震荡市。近期在政策端影响下，市场高亏损品种普遍出现明显反弹。 虽然政策端目前并未明确影响到玻璃行业供应，但空头资金主动离场推动期货价格上涨。现 货端近期成交有明显好转，尤其是此前持续偏弱的湖北市场成交有一定改善。短期在市场政 策炒作情绪终结前略偏强 ...

2025年07月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期或有抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：成本预期或有抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 11 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 763. 5 | 27.0 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report offers short - term trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. These forecasts are influenced by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic policies [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Facing disturbances from tariff issues, with a trend strength of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][5][9]. - **Silver**: In a high - level oscillation, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][5][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously increasing, putting pressure on prices. The trend strength is 0, showing a neutral outlook [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Operating within a range, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][14]. - **Lead**: Showing a mid - term upward trend, with a trend strength of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][19][23]. - **Aluminum**: The price center is moving up. Aluminum has a trend strength of 0, alumina has a trend strength of 1, and casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24][26]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between macro and fundamental factors, resulting in an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][27][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and macro - expectations, leading to an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the number of warehouse receipts is relatively small. The oscillating pattern may continue, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][37][40]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying market fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, resulting in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Due to sector sentiment resonance, they are in a relatively strong oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][44][48]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Cost expectations may rise, leading to a relatively strong oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][50][53]. - **Coke**: Oscillating with an upward bias, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][55][58]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, oscillating with an upward bias, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][56][58]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the market is stabilizing with oscillations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][60][63]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamental upside is limited [2][62]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is insufficient speculation on US soybean weather, lacking upward drivers [2][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Waiting for the USDA report, with a rebound and oscillation trend [2][64]. - **Soybean**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is oscillating [2][64]. - **Corn**: Undergoing oscillating adjustments [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The expectation of tight old - crop inventory continues to support futures prices [2][68]. - **Egg**: As the peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the expected difference [2][70]. - **Live Pig**: Spot sentiment is weakening, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices [2][71]. - **Peanut**: There is support at the lower level [4].

智通财经7月10日电，国内商品期市夜盘收盘多数上涨，黑色系普遍上涨，焦煤涨2.60%，铁矿石涨 1.87%，焦炭涨1.52%，热轧卷板涨1.39%，螺纹钢涨1.36%；非金属建材中玻璃涨2.54%；化工品中橡胶 涨1.19%，丁二烯橡胶涨1.18%，20号胶涨1.14%；油脂油料中豆粕涨0.99%，豆二涨0.81%。能源品普遍 下跌，燃油下跌1.49%，低硫燃料油下跌0.57%，LPG下跌0.48%；化工品中沥青下跌0.28%，聚丙烯下 跌0.18%；油脂油料中豆一下跌0.34%。 国内商品期市夜盘收盘多数上涨 黑色系普遍上涨 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report [3] - Report Date: July 10, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 1.89%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. It shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have not improved. However, the low inventory, recent policy benefits, positive market sentiment, and strong raw materials provide cost support. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong short - term trend, and policy conditions should be closely monitored [4][40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.16%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Supply and demand have weakened, the fundamentals are weakly stable, and inventory has slightly increased. Policy expectations and strong raw materials support the price to maintain a relatively strong trend, but overseas tariff risks should be guarded against [6][41]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price rose significantly with a daily increase of 3.67%, trading volume increased while open interest was stable. Ore demand has some resilience, and optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the short - term upward trend. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially in the context of weak supply and demand, and caution is needed regarding the upward height, as well as the possible shift of the trading logic to the industrial side [6][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Real Estate**: In the first half of 2025, the land transfer fees for residential land in first - and second - tier cities increased by over 40%. The land transfer fees in 300 cities increased by 27.5% year - on - year, but the transaction area decreased by 5.5%. The concentration of land transfer fees in the top 20 cities increased to 68%, and the land transfer fees for residential - related land in Hangzhou and Beijing exceeded 10 billion yuan [8]. - **Automobile**: In the first half of 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 15 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. The export of new energy vehicles was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.2% [9]. - **Mineral Exploration**: In the first half of 2025, 38 new mineral deposits were discovered in China, a year - on - year increase of 31%, including 25 large and medium - sized ones. Non - oil and gas mineral exploration investment reached 6.693 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. Social capital investment in exploration reached 3.359 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%, accounting for 48% of the total [10]. 2. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, as well as the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index, are provided, along with their price changes [11]. 3. Futures Market - **Contract Information**: The closing prices, price increases or decreases, trading volumes, and open interest of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented [15]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil [17][18][20]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal patterns and inventory changes [22][23][29]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, and the operating rate and profitability of electric furnaces of steel mills [32][34][35]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand are both weak, with production and demand decreasing. The low inventory, policy benefits, and strong raw materials support the short - term upward trend, but the fundamentals have not improved [40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand have weakened, with production and demand decreasing. Policy expectations and strong raw materials support the price, but overseas tariff risks should be watched out for [41]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand have weakened, with inventory increasing and consumption decreasing. The short - term upward trend is supported by demand resilience and optimistic sentiment, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially [41].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant surge in real estate-related sectors such as engineering consulting, urban renewal, and construction services, with multiple stocks reaching their daily limit up [1] - The China Engineering Machinery Industry Association reported that excavator sales in the first half of the year reached 65,637 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, indicating a positive outlook for the infrastructure and real estate sectors [1] - The China Index Academy noted that the land transfer revenue in first- and second-tier cities increased by over 40% in the first half of the year, with some cities nearing their total revenue from the previous year [1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of utilizing "two heavy" and "two new" funds to increase investment in key areas of new urbanization [1] - In the building materials market, futures prices for rebar and hot-rolled coil on the Shanghai Stock Exchange have seen an upward trend, reflecting increased demand [1]

越南历来被视为中国的伙伴和兄弟，但在短短几天内，却连续两次做出损害中国利益的决定，并正式开始征收关税。 2023年7月6日，越南政府正式宣布对来自中国的热轧卷钢材加征关税，税率范围为23.01%至7.83%，且这一政策将持续五年。在当前关税战这个敏感的时 刻，越南的这一举动该如何解读呢？ 这种反复无常的态度反映出越南经济上存在致命的软肋。根据数据，越南在2024年预测对美国的贸易顺差达到了1046亿美元，竟是其整体贸易顺差的四倍以 上。如此对美国的过度依赖，使越南在短时间内便屈服于美国的压力。 首先，在7月2日，美国总统特朗普曾宣布美国与越南之间已经达成一项贸易协定。而就在48小时后，越南便迅速发布了对中国热轧卷钢材加税的通知。这并 非偶然，而是越南急于向美国示好的一项急举，这很可能是美越谈判协议的一部分。毕竟，美国对中国的态度早已不容置疑，而越南试图迎合美国期望，企 图以此获得美国的更大理解和支持，从而在相关关税问题上为自己争取一些缓解。 越南对中国加税，这已经是其第二次"投降"于美国，第二次出卖中国的利益。根据特朗普早前的表态，美国与越南之间还达成了针对转口贸易商品征收高达 40%的关税协议。对于越南而言 ...