下半年港股牛途继续， AI 浪潮持续演绎下，港股科技板块向上空间更大。国泰海通海外策略团队联合海 外科技团队，分析下半年港股科技板块的看好逻辑，并深度研究全球科技根目录公司，核心覆盖港美股半 导体及互联网板块，追寻产业边际与价值共振投资机会。 一、研究报告 （点击标题查看报告） ①今年港股明显跑赢 A 股，背后反映宏观偏弱背景下港股稀缺性资产更具吸引力，类似 2012-14 年移 动互联浪潮下港股比 A 股率先崛起。②互联网、新消费、创新药、红利等板块的稀缺资产在港股更集 中，与当前 AI 应用、新消费等产业趋势相关度更高，即港股资产的稀缺性所在。③随着外部扰动减缓， 国内政策发力驱动基本面修复、南下提供边际资金增量，下半年港股望进一步向上，结构上恒生科技更 优。 年初以来港股明显跑赢 A 股，结构上医药、科技、消费等行业更显著，借鉴历史看本轮港股占优源于部 分港股资产更具稀缺性。 今年初以来，港股相较 A 股走势表现更为亮眼，年初以来恒生指数累计上涨 19% ，跑赢沪深 300 指数 21 个百分点，结构上医药、科技、材料、日常消费等行业跑赢的幅度更大， 具体来看行情可以划分为一季度科技重估行情下恒生科技明 ...

Group 1 - A-shares indices have risen significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the previous high of 3731.69 points from February 18, 2021, marking a nearly 10-year high since August 20, 2015 [1] - Most institutions believe that short-term market fluctuations do not alter the overall bullish trend, supported by proactive domestic policies and sustained inflow of medium to long-term capital [1] - Dongwu Securities indicates that while the market may experience volatility during attempts to break previous highs, the medium-term outlook remains positive due to the combination of policy support, asset scarcity, and expectations of a US interest rate cut [1] Group 2 - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities suggests that the bullish market sentiment will continue to dominate, with expectations of a strong market until early September, followed by limited corrections [2] - Dongwu Securities highlights technology growth as a key investment theme, recommending focus on sectors such as consumer electronics, autonomous driving, domestic computing power, and AI software [2] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors like brokerage, insurance, military industry, and rare earths, with additional attention on healthcare and overseas computing power as scarce assets [2]

Market Review - The equity market indices continued to strengthen, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 8.58% [4] - The bond market saw an increase in both short and long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond rising by 5.74 basis points to 1.747% [10] - The fund market experienced mixed results, with equity funds rising while medium and short-term pure bond fund indices declined [18] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on the semiconductor sector due to the upcoming China Semiconductor Ecosystem Development Conference and the newly introduced personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy [21][20] - Asset allocation strategy suggests a balanced core plus a barbell strategy, emphasizing dividend and technology sectors [23] - Recommended funds include those focused on consumer and infrastructure sectors, as well as technology growth styles [23][27] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's recent operations indicate a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan, maintaining a balanced liquidity environment [29] - Economic data for July shows a year-on-year industrial value-added growth of 5.7% [29] - Social financing data indicates a total stock of 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [29] Key Focus Products - Recommended products include short-term bond funds like Nord Short Bond A and Guotai Li'an Medium and Short Bond A, as well as funds benefiting from convertible bonds and equity market opportunities [2][34]

Group 1 - The bull market atmosphere is unlikely to disappear easily, with technology and manufacturing sectors potentially becoming the main themes [1] - In July, high-risk capital saw significant inflows, while foreign and insurance capital allocations also increased [2] - The market may reach new highs in the second half of the year, with a focus on both short-term and long-term themes [3] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector is expected to benefit from new pricing mechanisms and supportive policies, leading to faster cash flow returns for high-quality innovative drug manufacturers [4] - The solid-state battery industry is at a critical point of industrialization, driven by policy support, technological advancements, and growing downstream demand [5] - The white liquor industry is undergoing a transformation, with stock prices likely to reach a turning point ahead of demand-side recovery [6][7]

49 6 2 朱冰倩 ◎记者 马嘉悦 王彭 安昀 李长风 «国际117 all In & 许巳阳 吴旭 地缘局势难解、经济预期反复……在刚刚过去的上半年，全球市场波动显著加剧。A股和港股的结构性 行情，黄金价格的持续上涨，让不少取势、顺势的机构收获了亮眼回报。 展望下半年，超额收益从何来？全球资金再配置下，哪些市场将受益？上半年科技股的强劲走势能否延 续？带着这些问题，上海证券报记者邀请了路博迈基金首席市场策略师朱冰倩，施罗德基金副总经理、 首席投资官安昀，联博基金市场策略负责人李长风，银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳，久期投资宏观策略负 责人吴旭，探讨下半年资产配置思路。 他们认为，在美元走弱的趋势下，全球资金再配置节奏将显著加快。从具体配置来看：一方面，重点关 注中国科技、医药等板块的成长空间；另一方面，精选一些票息类资产作为稳定收益来源的底仓，提高 利率波段交易灵活性，关注欧洲、澳洲等国高评级债券的防御性价值，在低利率时代寻找更多收益来 源。 放眼全球： 非美市场将迎更多增量资金 记者：今年以来美元显著走弱，是何原因？而这一趋势将如何影响后续的资产配置？ 朱冰倩：美元走弱是多重因素交织作用的结果。一方面，美国关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the banking index, its historical context, and the current valuation, suggesting potential strategies for profit-taking as the index reaches a relatively high valuation level [6][18][21]. Group 1: Market Performance - The market experienced a slight decline after three consecutive days of increase, maintaining a rating of 4.9 stars [1]. - Both large-cap and small-cap stocks saw a decrease, while the banking index showed strength and reached a historical high [2][3][6]. - The value style, including dividend stocks, exhibited relatively small fluctuations during this period [4]. Group 2: Historical Context of Banking Index - The banking index has had strong performance in recent years, but historically, it has also faced periods of underperformance, leading to negative perceptions such as "three fools" and "big rotten smell" [6][8]. - From 2014 to 2015, small-cap stocks were in a bull market while large-cap stocks, including banks, were underperforming [7]. - The period from 2016 to 2017 saw a shift where large-cap stocks began to perform better as small-cap stocks faced declines due to valuation bubbles [8]. Group 3: Current Valuation and Profit-Taking Strategies - The banking index has seen significant growth in recent years, driven by both valuation increases and growth in earnings and net assets, resulting in a "double effect" [19]. - Currently, the banking index's valuation is considered normal to slightly high, with expectations that upcoming financial reports may lead to a decrease in perceived valuation [21]. - For profit-taking, two strategies are suggested: selling based on high valuation or achieving a satisfactory return, with recommendations for gradual selling [23]. Group 4: Dividend Indices and Value Style - The article differentiates between the banking index and dividend indices, noting that the banking index is weighted by market capitalization while dividend indices are weighted by dividend yield [10][11]. - Despite differences, both categories fall under the broader value style, which has shown strength from 2022 to 2024 [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing structural highlights with five key sectors—medical, technology, consumer, dividend, and finance—showing strong performance, forming a "five flowers" pattern. The narrowing of the AH premium index indicates a significant reduction in the discount of H-shares relative to A-shares, driven by substantial inflows of southbound capital [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 17, southbound capital has net purchased over 690 billion HKD in Hong Kong stocks this year, exceeding 85% of last year's total [1]. - The top-performing ETFs are related to the "five flowers" sectors, with some showing gains of over 40% [1]. - Actively managed funds focusing on innovative drugs and new consumption sectors have reported returns exceeding 60% [1]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The five key sectors are driven by different factors: - Performance-driven "Davis double hit" in technology and consumer sectors benefiting from AI [2]. - Valuation-driven "Davis double hit" in the medical sector due to improved performance and policy optimization [2]. - Valuation recovery in dividend and finance sectors influenced by A-share mapping and long-term capital seeking stable returns [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts believe the narrowing of the AH premium is primarily a result of value return, with no significant overheating risk in the Hong Kong market [3]. - The overall valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains low on a global scale, making it a continuous area of interest [3]. - The ongoing optimization of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism may further narrow the price gap between AH shares, particularly for high-dividend, low-valuation blue-chip stocks [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the active trading of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) and the supportive policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aimed at enhancing market stability and investor confidence [1][2] - The CSRC's new action plan includes 25 measures to shift the focus of the public fund industry from "scale" to "returns," which is expected to have a medium to long-term impact on the A-share market ecosystem [2] - The recent economic data, including resilient inflation and export figures, suggests a short-term favorable outlook, although the risk-reward ratio may decline, leading to a more structural market trend [1] Group 2 - The new regulations are expected to accelerate the trend towards indexation of public fund products and emphasize the performance benchmark constraints for fund products, potentially increasing allocations to low-risk equity funds and dividend assets [2] - Investment firms recommend maintaining current positions in the market while adjusting the portfolio structure, favoring sectors like large financials and dividend stocks over previously high-performing technology and growth sectors [1] - The MACD golden cross signal indicates positive momentum in certain stocks, suggesting potential investment opportunities [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short term, driven by increased market attention and the effectiveness of "stabilization funds" [1] - Focus areas include the AI industry chain, self-controllable sectors, and consumption sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, particularly in service consumption [1] - High dividend sectors are expected to continue attracting investment, especially in banking, coal, public utilities, and transportation [1] Group 2 - The market has recovered from previous negative impacts, but underlying negative factors have not been completely eliminated, suggesting a period of consolidation ahead [2] - It is recommended to adjust the current portfolio by reducing exposure to high-growth technology sectors and reallocating to financial, state-owned enterprises, and dividend-paying sectors [2] Group 3 - The technology sector is likely to continue its strong performance in the short term, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) expected to outperform the market [3] - Supportive policies and industry trends are driving the technology sector, with liquidity conditions also becoming more favorable [3] - Historical trends indicate that TMT typically shows strong performance relative to the market in May, driven by policy and industry catalysts [3]