Core Insights - The sales momentum of new energy vehicles (NEVs) remains strong in the first half of the year, with significant improvements in various technical aspects such as power structure, range, and battery energy density [1][2][4] Group 1: Sales and Market Trends - In June, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.26 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29%, with a total of 6.47 million units sold in the first half of the year, marking a 38% year-on-year growth [2] - The number of new energy vehicle models in the tax exemption directory for 2025 is 2,533, which is fewer compared to previous years, indicating a stable technical upgrade in exempt models [2][3] Group 2: Technical Developments - The majority of new pure electric passenger vehicles launched this year have a range exceeding 600 kilometers, with a notable increase in high-energy density battery products [2][4] - The market for short-range products is diminishing, while the demand for low-speed electric vehicles remains significant, suggesting potential growth in this segment [6] Group 3: Product Differentiation - Hydrogen fuel commercial vehicles have gained traction due to substantial subsidies, surpassing plug-in hybrids in the number of models submitted for approval [3] - The new models of plug-in hybrids are primarily focused on higher mileage, with most having a range of 100-200 kilometers, while range-extended vehicles are also seeing rapid growth [7] Group 4: Cost and Performance Considerations - The industry is shifting from merely competing on data to a more pragmatic approach, with manufacturers focusing on safety, cost, and overall performance of new models [8] - The effective control of battery costs has allowed manufacturers to offer vehicles with high ranges (500-600 kilometers) at lower price points, enhancing market accessibility [8]

Core Insights - The fifth International Forum on Automotive Power Systems was held in Shanghai, focusing on the diverse development of global automotive power systems [1] - Xu Changming presented a keynote report on the current status and future prospects of the hybrid vehicle market in China and abroad [1] Hybrid Vehicle Market in China - Since 2021, China's hybrid vehicle sales (including HEV, PHEV, REEV) have experienced exponential growth, with an annual growth rate of at least 50%, increasing from less than 1 million to nearly 6 million units [3] - PHEVs have seen a rapid increase in market share, reaching 62.6% last year and 62.7% in the first four months of this year, while HEV's share is declining [3] - The rapid development of PHEVs and range-extended vehicles is attributed to three main factors: supply-side push from brands like BYD and Li Auto, consumer preference for better economy and driving experience, and supportive government policies [3][4] Government Policies and Future Outlook - PHEVs and range-extended vehicles enjoy similar incentives as pure electric vehicles, with expectations that these policies will remain largely unchanged or slightly adjusted in the next 2-3 years [4] - There is a potential for PHEVs and range-extended vehicles to surpass pure electric vehicles in market share in the short term [4] Global Hybrid Vehicle Market Trends - The hybrid vehicle market overseas has also seen rapid growth, with a growth rate of 20%-30% in 2023, slightly lower than China's market [4] - In the overseas market, HEVs dominate with a share of about 78%, while PHEVs account for approximately 20% [4] - The only regions where hybrid vehicles have a higher market share than in China are Japan and South Korea, where hybrids account for about one-third of the market [4] Opportunities for Chinese Hybrid Vehicles Abroad - Chinese hybrid vehicles are expected to play a significant role in the global hybrid market, with Brazil projected to have the highest sales of Chinese brand hybrids at 59,000 units in 2024, primarily PHEVs [5] - Future opportunities for Chinese hybrid vehicles lie in countries with good home charging conditions and younger populations, such as Brazil, Russia, and Uzbekistan [5]

Group 1: Passenger Vehicles - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 55% by 2025, with multiple hybrid models launching in the second half of the year [1] - The retail and export of passenger vehicles in mainland China are projected to grow by 2.9% and 10% year-on-year, respectively, in 2025 [1] - The price of intelligent driving models is anticipated to drop below 200,000 RMB, with domestic software like Momenta leading the market [1] - Increased competition in the automotive market is expected in the second half of the year, with a focus on companies like BYD and XPeng Motors [1] Group 2: Heavy Trucks - Heavy truck sales in China are projected to reach 950,000 units (including exports) in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] - The market performance for heavy trucks has been relatively flat, with cumulative sales of 350,000 units in the first four months of 2025 [2] - Local policies are expected to boost market conditions in the second half of the year, enhancing the market share of leading companies [2] Group 3: Two-Wheelers - The new national standards and trade-in policies are expected to support a recovery in the two-wheeler market, with sales projected to reach 56 million units in 2025 [2] - The new standards raise production technology requirements and emphasize the importance of smart technology in the industry [2] - Industry leader Yadea is favored for its strong market position [2] Group 4: Batteries - The trend is shifting towards range-extending large batteries, with a focus on commercial vehicle batteries [2] - The recent phase of tariff agreements between China and the U.S. introduces uncertainties, while South Korean companies are increasing their presence in the North American market [2] - CATL is recommended for its technological advancements and overseas expansion [2] Group 5: Robotics - The industrialization of robotics is approaching, with companies like Tesla and UBTECH announcing mass production plans [2] - Chinese companies are expected to benefit from cost advantages and technological accumulation [2] - Attention is drawn to core components with low domestic production rates and high value proportions, such as planetary roller screws and six-dimensional force sensors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasizes that hybrid powertrains are essential for achieving net-zero emissions in the automotive industry [1] Company Overview - Horse Powertrain was established in May 2024 and has its global headquarters in London, UK, with 17 manufacturing bases and 5 R&D centers [3] - The company employs 19,000 staff globally, including 3,000 engineers, and has an annual revenue of €15 billion (approximately ¥123.3 billion) [3] - Horse Powertrain's annual sales reach about 8 million powertrains, including engines, transmissions, and batteries [3] Product Portfolio - The company offers a diverse product range, including fuel engines, hybrid engines, plug-in hybrid engines, and transmissions [3] - Horse Powertrain can produce energy power systems using gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas, compressed natural gas, and methanol [3] Market Insights - By 2040, it is projected that around 50% of vehicles in the global market will still be internal combustion engine vehicles, equating to approximately 54 million vehicles annually [4] - The global stock of fuel vehicles exceeds 1 billion, with an average lifespan of 15 years, indicating a prolonged presence of internal combustion engines in the automotive industry [4] Technological Approach - The company believes that the transition to electrification should not focus on a single technology but rather embrace a multi-path development strategy [4] - Horse Powertrain aims to provide hybrid solutions that complement the development of pure electric vehicles, facilitating the transition for consumers hesitant about electrification [5] Energy Solutions - The company is exploring alternative fuels such as hydrogen, methanol, and synthetic fuels, which are expected to gain widespread use in the future [5] - Current challenges include high production costs for synthetic fuels, necessitating ongoing policy support for large-scale production and application [5] Future Developments - At the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show, Horse Powertrain will showcase alternative fuel solutions, including methanol, ethanol, hydrogen, and synthetic fuels [6] - The company has improved the combustion efficiency and emissions treatment of methanol engines, achieving a 30% reduction in carbon emissions compared to traditional gasoline engines [6] - Horse Powertrain aims to become an ecological coordinator and system integrator, developing a flexible and sustainable power technology platform tailored to regional fuel preferences [6]

Group 1: Bond ETF Market - The bond ETF market has seen significant growth, with over 40 billion yuan in net inflows in May alone, reaching a new high in total scale [1] - On May 30, 10 out of the top 12 ETF products by trading volume were bond ETFs, indicating strong market participation [1] - Nine bond ETFs have been approved for use as collateral in general pledge-style repurchase agreements, which may accelerate the expansion of the bond ETF market [1] Group 2: Public Fund Issuance - In May, bond funds dominated the public fund issuance market with a 55.07% issuance ratio, while equity products faced uneven demand [1] - The issuance of ETFs has declined for four consecutive months, raising only 11.068 billion units in May [1] - The market reflects a struggle between stability and change, with bond funds providing a safety net while equity products seek growth in niche segments [1] Group 3: Private Equity and ETF Investment - Private equity firms have shown strong interest in newly listed ETFs, with 104 firms holding a total of 1.783 billion shares in 97 ETFs [2] - The preferred themes for private equity investments are technology innovation and free cash flow [2] Group 4: Insurance Companies' Stock Purchases - As of the end of May, seven insurance companies have made 15 stock purchases this year, surpassing the total for 2023 and the first nine months of 2024 [2] - The majority of these purchases have been in bank stocks, with additional investments in public utilities, energy, and transportation sectors [2] Group 5: Corporate Developments - 28 companies have successfully removed their ST (Special Treatment) status this year, primarily through financial improvements, internal control repairs, and bankruptcy restructuring [3] - The airline industry is expected to see improved profitability due to falling oil prices and recovering demand, with a projected net profit margin of 3.7% for 2025 [3] - Domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers reported significant sales growth in May, with several companies achieving monthly sales exceeding 40,000 units, driven by extended-range vehicles [4] Group 6: Tesla's Sales Decline - Tesla's sales in France plummeted by 67% in May, marking the lowest sales level in nearly three years, despite the launch of a new version of its Model Y [6]

编 译 / 张霖郁 设 计 / 赵昊然 丰田和大众集团，2024年全球业绩呈现一喜一悲。 据外媒报道，2024年丰田全球销量超过1100万辆，同比增长6.7%。 丰田在美国表现出色，2024年销量为233.26万辆，同比增长3.7%，其中接近一半是混动车型。这一 数据和丰田在中国的表现相比，过于悬殊。 2024年，丰田在中国市场共销售177.6万辆，同比下滑6.9%。其中广汽丰田2024全年终端销量为 77.01万辆，同比下滑14.5%；一汽丰田为80万辆，基本与前一年持平。 丰田2024年在中国的总销量占其全球销量的16%，这几年这一比例基本保持在20%左右。中国市场 向来不是丰田的第一大市场。 不管怎样，丰田守住了2024年汽车行业老大的地位。 大众集团是全球车企老二，2024年共实现总销量902.7万辆，同比下降2.3%。中国市场贡献了292.8 万辆，和前一年323.6万辆相比，下滑9%。 其中，一汽-大众完成165.91万辆，同比下降13%；上汽大众销量超过120万辆，基本和2023年持 平。 大众在中国市场的下滑主要受一汽-大众业绩的影响，另外，大众安徽ID.UNXY的量尚未起来。从 全球来看，大 ...