张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 从苏超、Labubu 等爆品看提振消费 ——关于提振消费问题的再思考 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 宏观专题 证券分析师 2025 年 07 月 02 日 当前市场对消费领域较为关注：1）经济短期面临经贸斗争扰动，中长期面临低通 胀挑战，临近 7 月政治局会如何进一步提振消费值得关注。2）今年消费数据表现 强势离不开以旧换新及财政政策的支持，政策力度若边际下降是否会再次出现消 费不足的特征？3）今年以来新消费百花齐放，苏超、Labubu、哪吒 2 等均有现象 级表现，与传统消费有一定分化，如何理解这一现象的宏观逻辑，对后续提振消费 有何启示？ 我国已经进入品质消费时代，当前市场对消费领域较为关注。我们在 2 月外发《关 于提振消费问题的一些再思考》报告中通过对居民消费行为的划分，详细介绍了中 国消费市场的变化，在经历了三轮模仿型排浪式消费浪潮、2010 年后的消费升级 时代后，如今我国逐 ...

Core Insights - Xiaomi's YU7 SUV is positioned as a direct competitor to Tesla's Model Y, with a starting price of 253,500 RMB, only 10,000 RMB cheaper than Model Y [4][16] - The initial demand for YU7 is significant, with over 200,000 pre-orders within three minutes and 240,000 within 18 hours, indicating a strong market entry [4][14] - Tesla is facing challenges in maintaining its market dominance due to increasing competition from Chinese manufacturers like Xiaomi, especially in key markets such as China and Europe [16][17] Company Analysis - Xiaomi's YU7 launch has generated considerable attention, with comparisons to Tesla's Model Y and discussions about its potential impact on Tesla's market share [3][5] - The company aims to deliver 350,000 vehicles this year, with the YU7 being a crucial part of this strategy [8][14] - Xiaomi's future plans include expanding into international markets by 2027, which could further challenge Tesla's position [15][17] Industry Trends - The automotive industry is witnessing a shift with increased competition from Chinese manufacturers, leading to a decline in Tesla's sales in Europe and China [16] - Tesla's sales in Europe dropped by 27.9% in May, highlighting the impact of competition from companies like BYD and SAIC [16] - The introduction of lower-priced models by Tesla, such as the potential Model Y "Youth Edition," is seen as a necessary response to the competitive pressure from Xiaomi and other Chinese automakers [18]

Q&A 小米 SU7 和小米 U7 的订单表现如何，以及小米 U7 的订单量超出市场预期的 主要原因是什么？ 小米 SU7 在上市 24 小时内的大定数量约为 8.8 万台。小米 U7 在发售一小时 内的大定数量已突破 28.9 万台，远超市场此前对 24 小时大定数量 15 万至 25 万台的预期。小米 U7 订单量超预期的主要原因包括：首先，产品性价比高， 小米 U7 提供标准版、Pro 版和 Max 版三款车型，起售价为 25.35 万元。其硬 件配置包括小米超级电机 V6S plus（零百加速 3.23 秒）、全系标配 800 伏碳 摘要 小米 U7 订单超预期，得益于高性价比（起售价 25.35 万元，零百加速 3.23 秒，800V 快充）、品牌破圈效应（吸引女性和苹果用户）以及 SU7 订单转单效应。产能释放和新车型规划是未来增长点，亦庄工厂二 期进展至关重要，预计 2025 年交付量 35-40 万台。 小米汽车业务 2025 年 Q1 毛利率达 23.2%，环比提升 2.7 个百分点， 但仍亏损约 5 亿元。随着交付能力提升、新车型发布和产品矩阵完善， 盈利能力有望显著释放，预计 2026 ...

Core Insights - Xiaomi is revolutionizing the Chinese automotive industry with impressive pre-order numbers for its new car model YU7, achieving 200,000 pre-orders in just 3 minutes and 289,000 in one hour, surpassing previous records set by its SU7 model [1][7] - The marketing strategy employed by Xiaomi for YU7 resembles that of its early smartphone launches, creating a sense of urgency among consumers due to limited availability and long waiting times for delivery [2][4] - Xiaomi's CEO Lei Jun emphasized the significance of these sales figures, suggesting they represent a milestone for the Chinese automotive industry [1][6] Marketing and Sales Strategy - Xiaomi's marketing efforts for YU7 have been more restrained compared to SU7, focusing on building anticipation through social media and live events, while maintaining a cautious approach to avoid potential backlash [5][6] - The company has implemented measures to prevent scalping, allowing only one pre-order and one locked order per user, and prohibiting changes to buyer information after locking an order [7][8] - The pricing strategy for YU7 positions it competitively against Tesla's Model Y, with an initial price of 253,500 yuan, just 10,000 yuan lower than Model Y's starting price, indicating Xiaomi's shift away from a purely cost-effective branding strategy [8][9] Industry Response - Traditional automotive industry executives have expressed skepticism regarding Xiaomi's pre-order numbers, citing the challenges of scaling production in the automotive sector compared to consumer electronics [2][4] - Despite initial doubts, industry confidence in Xiaomi's automotive capabilities appears to be growing, as evidenced by the significant pre-order figures and positive consumer sentiment towards the YU7 model [8][9] - The success of YU7 is seen as a continuation of the momentum built by the earlier SU7 model, with improved product features and safety measures contributing to consumer trust [7][8]

苹果直营渠道支持国补 制糖工厂 AI 小电拼重磅消息 雷军：预计小米 YU7 会和 SU7 一样火爆 OpenAI 首款硬件被指「像素级抄袭」 曝英伟达 CEO 将减持 600 万股公司股票 Meta 收购 AI 视频初创 Runway AI 计划暂停 前英特尔 CEO 加入 AI 芯片初创 宇树科技创始人的「报考建议」：不要放弃自己所热爱的 华为智驾+鸿蒙座舱，岚图 FREE+ 预售价 22.99 万元起 星巴克中国回应机构收购部分股权 苹果直营渠道支持国补 昨日，苹果正式推出直营销售渠道的国补活动，但目前限制较多，我们为你总结了以下内容： 另外，据外媒 Macworld 消息，苹果在日前更新的 iOS 26 Beta2 中，新增了一张全新壁纸，而该壁纸的分辨率信息与此前曝光的 iPhone 17 Air 屏幕尺寸信息 相匹配，因此该媒体推测，iPhone 17 系列将存在 Air（或名为 Slim）机型。 据此前分析师郭明錤消息，iPhone 17 Air 将配备 6.6 英寸屏幕，分辨率约为 1260×2740。而本次曝光的新壁纸尺寸为 1260×2736，与上述信息基本吻合。报 道还指出，目前还没有 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Buy" with a target price not specified in the report [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the YU7 model is expected to be a significant product for Xiaomi, showcasing a shift towards practicality while maintaining a luxurious brand image. The YU7 is positioned as a mid-to-large pure electric SUV, featuring advanced technology such as laser radar, 800V fast charging, and Nvidia Thor chips [1][2]. - The YU7 is anticipated to leverage Xiaomi's ecosystem, potentially enhancing overall revenue growth through better integration with AIOT products. The initial user interest has exceeded expectations, with a significant portion of new users showing interest in the brand [2][3]. - The report forecasts a strong sales performance for the YU7, predicting that it may outperform market expectations due to its competitive pricing strategy and high-value features [3]. Summary by Sections Product Overview - The YU7 is Xiaomi's second vehicle, designed to complement the SU7, with a focus on a more practical approach while retaining a sporty design. It offers options for single and dual motor configurations, with a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 3.23 seconds [1]. Market Positioning - The YU7's pricing strategy is centered around providing value for money, with luxury features included in the offering. The report notes that the initial user engagement for the YU7 has been significantly higher than that of the SU7, indicating a broader appeal [2][3]. Financial Projections - The report projects that Xiaomi's total revenue could reach 471.8 billion CNY in 2025 and 679.7 billion CNY in 2026, with electric vehicles and innovative business segments contributing 96.4 billion CNY and 250.6 billion CNY respectively. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 42.9 billion CNY and 85.5 billion CNY for the same years [3].

直播开始，李肖爽对小米 YU7 留资率高于同期小米 SU7 三倍的数据进行补充说明："YU7 留资用户中 60% 为首次留资，40% 是首次使用小米产品。" 这意味着 YU7 吸引了大量新用户，破圈效应显著，且 与 SU7 用户重叠度没有想象中高。 此前小米 YU7 亮相粤港澳车展时，引发大批观众排队参观，小米展台成为全场焦点。小米汽车销售姜维 向雷峰网透露："现在每周末都有不少顾客到店参观、询价。" 官方数据显示，目前全国小米汽车门店数量突破 300 家。截至 5 月，小米 SU7 累计交付超 25 万台，5 月单月交付量超 2.8 万台。线下小米 SU7 系列销量持续火爆，姜维对雷峰网表示："周末试驾顾客要排 很长时间队，试驾员经常忙不过来。" 然而在销量火爆的背后，交付周期成为小米车主最关注的问题。据雷峰网调查，当前 SU7 系列交付周期 为 38-42 周。最新消息显示，小米汽车三期工厂地块于6 月 19 日竞拍成交，占地 717 亩（面积略小于 二期工厂）。尽管小米引入 700 个精密机器人推进产能扩建，但短期来看，交付周期仍难以大幅缩短。 " 对于YU7，要把控好「预期 」 。 " 作者丨 雪银 ...

马斯克向特朗普道歉：感到后悔 OpenAI CEO：某种意义上，ChatGPT 已经比任何人都强大 9999 元起，华为 Pura80 Ultra 发布 多家车企宣布：供应商支付账期统一至 60 天内 小米 SU7 Ultra 成为纽北最速量产电动车 马云回应「离职高管谈阿里'大公司病'」 机构：华为拿下一季度全球腕戴市场第一 昨日下午，华为正式发布最新旗舰——华为 Pura 80 系列新机，先看售价： 外观方面，华为 Pura80 系列依然延续了 Pura70 系列的三角形后摄 Deco，但设计更加简单，并且 Deco 底座增加了细腻的纹理内容。 华为 Pura80 系列配色上颇为丰富：Pura80 提供拥有四款配色的丝绒玻璃；Pura80 Pro/Pro+ 则以「单色釉」为灵感，提供多款「釉」色；Pura80 Ultra 则提供 了鎏光黑/金。 影像方面，本次最大看点便是华为 Pura80 Ultra 所搭载的「一底双镜」长焦：一个摄像头孔内，有两颗双长焦镜头，共用一个 CMOS 传感器。在「一底双 镜」长焦中，拥有 3.7 倍和 9.4 倍两个光学焦段。 消息称小米 AI 智能眼镜或 6 月发售，售价超 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [6] Core Insights - Xiaomi Group reported a record high revenue of RMB 111.3 billion for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, with adjusted net profit reaching RMB 10.7 billion, up 64.5% year-on-year [1] - Xiaomi's electric vehicle, the SU7, has surpassed the Model 3 in sales, with 75,869 units delivered in Q1 2025, making it the best-selling vehicle in its price range [1] - The new luxury SUV, YU7, is set to challenge the Model Y, featuring three versions with a maximum power of 690PS and advanced charging capabilities [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for Xiaomi in Q1 2025 was RMB 111.3 billion, with a net profit of RMB 10.7 billion, marking significant growth compared to the previous year [1] Product Development - The SU7 series has achieved cumulative deliveries of over 258,000 units, with a strong monthly delivery rate exceeding 20,000 units for six consecutive months [1] - The YU7 features a maximum range of 835 km and can accelerate from 0-100 km/h in 3.23 seconds, showcasing its competitive performance [2] Technological Advancements - The YU7 is equipped with the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Thor™ platform, providing 700 TOPS of computing power, enhancing its autonomous driving capabilities [3]

"只要产品力足够强，盈利就不是问题。" 我们了解到，高速事故发酵后，小米暂停了高密度的宣发，一些门店在 4 月有半个多月都没有再进行 直播，SU7 的锁单量确实曾下滑。但据小米集团合伙人、集团总裁卢伟冰透露，截至 5 月 26 日，小 米 SU7 Ultra 的最新锁单数已超过 2.3 万台。 分析师们当下更在意的是 7 月上市的 YU7 对 SU7 的潜在影响，以及 YU7 标配激光雷达后对盈利与 定价策略带来的变化。此前 SU7 的智驾分为纯视觉与激光雷达两种配置。 卢伟冰对该问题的回复较简单，他以小米 SU7 为例，表示：只要产品力足够强，盈利就不是问题。 "SU7 去年 3 月 28 日 上市之后，时隔 14 个月了，但是今天市面上有哪一个产品是 SU7 的对手？一 款都没有。我想你们也看到了，（SU7）曾经有无数的对手，但是到今天你会发现一个能打的都没 有。" 卢伟冰说，没有对手，就保证了定价权，有了定价权，就有了合理的利润率。 文 丨 郭瑞婵 编辑 丨 龚方毅 在 SU7 的高销量驱动下，小米不出意外地又交出了公司历史以来最佳的一季报。今年前 3 个月，小米 一共交付了 7.6 万台新车，环比增长 ...