作者 Deep Value Investing ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。 随着 2026 财年第二季度财报将于 1 月 28 日发布，分析师将微软公司（MSFT）的评级下调至 "持有"（Hold）。 分析师的下调主要基于两个因素。 2.公司动态。 让我们先看看华尔街对未来几个季度每股收益（EPS）的普遍预期。 一言以蔽之：自 2026 财年第一季度财报发布后的大涨以来，预期一直保持不变。看看华尔街对未来 12 个月的营收预测，自第一季度以来， 预期也保持不变。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 首先，近期的抛售主要由公司无法控制的外部压力驱动。 科技板块自去年 10 月以来一直承压，而软件基础设施行业（微软是该行业市值最高 的公司）是主要拖累之一。 虽然许多只看基本面的投资者认为这是逢低买入的机会，但分析师认为未来仍有进一步的下行风险。鉴于云业务毛利率承压（上季度为 68%，预计第二财季为 66%）且资本支出（CapEx）仍在增加，分析师认为第三财季的利润率指引可能会发出预警。分析师不再认为提高资 本支出指引对超大规模云服务商是利好。 因此，分 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the sustained strength of the US stock market, with major indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching new historical closing records, driven by a combination of factors including the onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve in 2024 [1] - The current market rally is characterized by a strong performance from technology stocks, with major players like Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon showing steady gains, indicating that the rise is supported by solid earnings rather than speculative trading [2] - The article emphasizes that the robust performance of the stock market is underpinned by loose liquidity and favorable policy expectations, with significant inflows into equity markets, particularly technology ETFs, contributing to the upward momentum [3] Group 2 - The performance of Chinese concept stocks in the US market shows a divergence, with some stocks like Zai Lab experiencing significant gains while others like Alibaba and Baidu face slight declines, reflecting a more rational pricing mechanism based on fundamental performance [4] - The article notes that the current market dynamics, characterized by strong technology fundamentals, loose liquidity, and a stable economy, are unlikely to change in the short term, although there are concerns about high valuation levels in the S&P 500 [5] - Investors are advised to focus on high-quality stocks with core competitive advantages rather than chasing index gains, as the differentiation in Chinese concept stocks may continue, with performance certainty and growth potential becoming key drivers for future valuation adjustments [5]

Group 1: Aging Population in China - 20 provinces in China have entered a moderate aging stage, with Liaoning having the highest elderly population ratio at 31.17% [2] - The number of provinces in moderate aging has more than doubled from 6 in 2018 to 20 in 2024, indicating a rapid demographic shift [2] - The aging population is leading to increased labor costs and pushing labor-intensive industries towards automation, posing re-employment challenges for unskilled workers [2] Group 2: Silver Economy - The silver economy is gaining traction, with a focus on improving elderly care facilities, although the average consumption power of the elderly is lower than that of younger generations [3] - The financial burden of public spending on healthcare and elderly care is expected to increase significantly due to the aging population [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut this year [4] - There is a 91% probability that the Fed will continue to cut rates by another 25 basis points in December [4] - The Fed is facing challenges in assessing the macroeconomic situation due to the government shutdown and is balancing concerns over inflation and potential economic resilience [4] Group 4: Healthcare Insurance Negotiations - The 2025 National Medical Insurance negotiations have begun, introducing a new commercial insurance innovative drug directory alongside the basic medical insurance directory [5][6] - The new directory focuses on high-innovation drugs that provide significant clinical value but are not included in the basic insurance due to cost [5][6] Group 5: Nvidia's Market Milestone - Nvidia's market capitalization has surpassed $5 trillion, making it the first company to reach this milestone, driven by strong performance in AI and computing infrastructure [7] - The company's CEO announced plans to expand into quantum computing, autonomous driving, and communication, indicating a broadening of its operational scope [7] Group 6: Earnings Reports from Tech Giants - Microsoft reported Q3 revenue of $77.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 18%, while Alphabet's revenue was $102.35 billion, up about 16% [8] - Meta's Q3 revenue was $51.24 billion, but its net profit plummeted 83% to $2.71 billion due to a one-time tax expense [8] - The cloud businesses of Microsoft and Alphabet continue to show strong growth, with Microsoft’s commercial cloud revenue reaching $49.1 billion, up 26% [8] Group 7: OpenAI's IPO Plans - OpenAI is considering an IPO with a valuation of up to $1 trillion, potentially submitting its application as early as the second half of 2026 [9][10] - The company aims to raise at least $60 billion through the IPO to address a significant funding gap, as it anticipates consuming $115 billion by 2029 [10] Group 8: Starbucks' Performance in China - Starbucks reported a 6% year-on-year increase in net revenue in China for Q4, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth [11] - The company opened 183 new stores in Q4, expanding its presence in 47 new county-level markets [11] - Despite revenue growth, Starbucks faces challenges with profit margins due to competitive pricing strategies and increased operational costs [12] Group 9: Market Overview - The stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.73% and the ChiNext Index dropping nearly 2% [13] - Market sentiment was affected by mixed signals despite the Fed's rate cut and positive developments in US-China trade talks [13]

Group 1 - The core inflation indicator, the core PCE price index, rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, marking a five-month high, indicating that inflation is becoming entrenched in the economy [3] - The Biden administration's tariffs on Chinese goods have not yet fully manifested, suggesting that consumers will soon face a "China-made price surge," potentially leading to a dual inflation scenario [3] - The employment data, previously seen as a shield for the economy, has been called into question after a significant downward revision of June's job additions by 90%, reducing the reported 200,000 new jobs to just 20,000 [4][5] Group 2 - The market is currently focused on the extent of potential interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut in September being almost certain, while some speculate a 50 basis point cut [6] - Gold prices have surged above $3,500 for the first time, reflecting fears of a financial storm, as prominent investors warn of impending market turmoil [6] - The AI sector, which has been a major driver of the stock market, is showing signs of weakness, with a recent MIT study revealing that 95% of companies find AI unhelpful for their business [7][9] Group 3 - The U.S. economy is facing multiple challenges, including tariffs igniting inflation, questionable employment data, erratic interest rate policies, the potential collapse of the AI bubble, and warnings from the gold market, reminiscent of the pre-2008 financial crisis [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the overseas AI industry chain's performance and capital expenditure have exceeded expectations, with strong demand for AI computing hardware [1][2] - Meta reported Q2 2025 revenue of $47.516 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, surpassing market expectations of $44.8 billion, and net profit grew by 36% to $18.337 billion, significantly above market forecasts [2] - Microsoft achieved Q2 2025 revenue of $76.441 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase, with net profit of $27.233 billion, up 24% [2] Group 2 - Meta raised its full-year capital expenditure (CAPEX) guidance from a minimum of $64 billion to $66 billion, with a range of $66 billion to $72 billion [2] - Microsoft’s Q2 2025 CAPEX was $24.2 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase, and it is expected to exceed $30 billion in Q3 2025, representing a 50% year-on-year growth [2] - The demand for AI-related hardware is expected to remain strong, with significant growth in the number of ASIC chips from companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta projected to exceed 7 million by 2026 [2][4] Group 3 - The industry outlook indicates a robust growth trajectory for sectors such as consumer electronics, PCB, semiconductor chips, and semiconductor manufacturing, with a stable upward trend [4] - Companies in the AI-PCB and computing hardware sectors are expected to benefit significantly from the rapid development and deployment of AI technologies [3][4] - The overall demand for AI computing hardware is anticipated to continue its strong momentum, driven by advancements in technologies like NVIDIA's Blackwell and ASIC chip development [2][3]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced significant gains from May 7 to May 9, driven by a recovery in external markets and a shift in narrative from recession to "AI supply shortage" due to Microsoft's cloud business exceeding expectations [1] - The overall trading volume in the A-share market did not show significant expansion, indicating a short-term focus on speculative trading with a decline in risk appetite [1] - The top-performing indices included the Wind Microplate Index with a weekly increase of 5.46%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index saw a decline of 0.83% [1] Group 2 - Current assessments of the macroeconomic environment are becoming ambiguous, with global trade activities potentially cooling due to high tariffs [2] - Analysts suggest distinguishing between beta and alpha risks related to global tariffs, with beta risk stemming from U.S. tariff impacts on global demand and alpha risk arising from higher tariffs on China compared to other regions [2] - The A-share market indices have largely filled previous gaps, but are expected to face fundamental challenges in the future [2] Group 3 - The macro-prudential approach and trends in the AI technology industry are not aligned, necessitating strategies for total control of equity positions and structural optimization [3] Group 4 - Bonds and gold remain effective tools for reducing volatility, while U.S. stocks are in a wait-and-see phase amid recession pressures and policy challenges [4] - The focus on equity allocation is becoming more cautious, with dividend and AI sectors being prioritized due to their strong cash flow and low correlation with external demand [4] Group 5 - Relevant ETFs for the AI industry include the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) and the Artificial Intelligence AI ETF (515070) [5] - ETFs aimed at reducing volatility include the Gold ETF Huaxia (518850) and the Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (513910) [6]