Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held this week. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market. A - shares have risen significantly in the past month and are expected to enter a high - level shock waiting for a direction decision [2]. - The bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may face resistance at 1.78% - 1.8%, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract at 107.4 - 107.6 [2]. - Gold is oscillating strongly, while silver long positions above $38 should be held. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions in the 10 - contract should be continued [2]. - Steel product demand has stopped falling and rebounded, and can be bought. Iron ore follows steel prices, and should be bought at low levels. Due to a coal mine accident, coking coal, coke futures are expected to rebound and should be bought at low levels [2]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper inventory is decreasing near the peak season, while alumina has a supply surplus. Aluminum alloy consumption shows a marginal improvement trend [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil is under pressure from the macro - level, and short - term unilateral trading should be on the sidelines. Urea has a clear supply increase, and short - term trading should be in a band. PX and PTA are still recommended for long - positions [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, soybean meal and rapeseed meal have long - term bullish expectations. Palm oil is running strongly, while sugar should be short - held [2]. - For special commodities, the impact of the coking coal incident has weakened, and glass and soda ash should be short - sold. Natural rubber should be short - sold if raw material supply increases smoothly [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has falling prices and should be observed, while lithium carbonate has weak sentiment and should also be observed [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are expected to enter high - level shock. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profit on previous positions [2]. - **Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is expected to stabilize. Long positions can be lightly tried on pullbacks [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is oscillating strongly. A bullish spread strategy can be constructed, and silver long positions above $38 should be held [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is weakly oscillating, and short positions in the 10 - contract should be continued [2]. - **Steel Products**: Demand has stopped falling and rebounded. Long positions can be tried for hot - rolled coils and rebar at reference prices of 3140 and 3380 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: It follows steel prices. Long positions can be taken at low levels in the range of 770 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to a coal mine accident, long positions can be taken at low levels [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases has been implemented, and long positions can be taken at low levels [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper inventory is decreasing near the peak season. Alumina has a supply surplus, and aluminum alloy consumption is improving [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil should be on the sidelines in the short - term. Urea should be traded in a band. PX, PTA, and short - fiber are recommended for long - positions [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal should have long - term long positions. Palm oil is running strongly, and sugar should be short - held [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Glass and soda ash should be short - sold. Natural rubber should be short - sold if raw material supply increases smoothly [2]. - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate should be observed [2].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the first recycled metal derivatives, specifically casting aluminum alloy futures and options, marks a significant advancement in China's green finance market, providing a new perspective for risk management and supporting the development of the circular economy [2][4][8]. Summary by Sections Launch of Recycled Metal Derivatives - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has officially listed casting aluminum alloy futures and options, filling a gap in the domestic futures market for recycled metals [2][5]. - On the first trading day, the main contract closed at 19,190 yuan/ton, up 825 yuan/ton, a 4.49% increase from the listing price, with a total trading volume of 57,300 contracts and a transaction value of 11.01 billion yuan [5]. Industry Overview - Casting aluminum alloy, primarily made from scrap aluminum, is a key pathway for low-carbon transition, with energy consumption only 3%-5% of that of traditional electrolytic aluminum production [6]. - The carbon emissions from producing one ton of casting aluminum alloy are approximately 3.6% of those from electrolytic aluminum, saving 3.4 tons of standard coal and 22 tons of water [6]. - China's recycled aluminum production is expected to exceed 10 million tons in 2024 and reach over 18 million tons by 2030, with the new derivatives promoting standardized development in the industry [6]. Complete Aluminum Industry Chain - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options completes the risk hedging system for the aluminum industry, covering the entire supply chain from bauxite to recycled aluminum [7]. - Companies can now use these derivatives to manage risks associated with raw material costs and product price fluctuations, enhancing the resilience of the entire aluminum industry chain [7]. Green Finance and Risk Management - The emergence of casting aluminum alloy derivatives signifies a new phase in green finance, moving beyond traditional credit and bond products to include market-based pricing and risk hedging mechanisms [8][10]. - These derivatives allow companies to lock in costs for recycled materials and manage price volatility, thus enhancing operational efficiency and competitiveness in the low-carbon economy [8][10]. Innovation in Green Financial Products - The derivatives market introduces innovative functions for green finance, transitioning from single financing tools to comprehensive risk management platforms [11]. - The development of structured financial products that combine futures with green indicators, such as carbon emissions and recycling rates, is encouraged [16]. Recommendations for Financial Institutions - Financial institutions are advised to expand their green finance product offerings and enhance competitive differentiation, particularly in the carbon market, where China's trading volume is significantly lower than that of the EU [16][18]. - Collaboration between banks and futures exchanges is essential to create a comprehensive risk management system that supports the green transition of the real economy [15][18].

个人消费贷款、服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案发布从需求端和供给端协同发力提振消费 《中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明》发布中美就24%关税继续暂停等达成共识 美国7月核心CPI数据显示通胀压力持续存在特朗普要求美联储主席鲍威尔立即降息并指责其"总是行动太迟" 财政部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局日前印发《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》，明确对符合条件的个人消费贷款给予财政贴息。 贴息范围包括 单笔5万元以下消费，以及单笔5万元及以上的家用汽车、养老生育、教育培训、文化旅游、家居家装、电子产品、健康医疗等重点领域消费。对于单笔5万 元以上的消费，以5万元消费额度为上限进行贴息。（新华财经） 财政部、民政部等九部门印发《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》，明确对符合条件的8类消费领域服务业经营主体贷款给予财政贴息。根据实施方 案，同时符合相关条件的贷款可享受贴息政策。相关条件包括，由经办银行向餐饮住宿、健康、养老、托育、家政、文化娱乐、旅游、体育8类消费领域服 务业经营主体发放。（新华财经） 《中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明》12日发布。美国将继续修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Municipal Government has announced a plan to support the research and launch of electricity futures, aiming to fill the gap in domestic energy derivatives and provide price risk management tools for new energy generation companies and electricity users [1][3]. Group 1: Electricity Futures Development - The plan explicitly states the intention to explore the timely launch of electricity futures, which has been a long-standing request from the industry to support the reform of the electricity spot market and the demand for green energy trading [3]. - The introduction of electricity futures is expected to complement the development of China's electricity market, which has been lagging behind international markets where electricity futures have been established for years [3]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has been active in the green energy sector, having previously launched futures products related to industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon [3]. Group 2: New Energy Futures - The implementation plan also proposes the exploration of more new energy futures products, focusing on wind energy, photovoltaics, energy storage, and key raw materials, indicating potential policy support for these areas in Nansha [4]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has recently sought public opinion on futures and options contracts for platinum and palladium, suggesting that the launch of these futures is imminent [4]. Group 3: Futures Delivery Center and Cross-Border Cooperation - The plan supports the establishment of a commodity futures delivery center in Nansha, which will enhance delivery efficiency and reduce logistics costs, benefiting the overall supply chain services [5]. - It encourages cross-border cooperation with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, allowing qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) and Renminbi qualified foreign institutional investors (RQFII) to participate in trading at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [5]. - The plan aims to facilitate the internationalization of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and provide more options for foreign investors in China's green and low-carbon futures products [5]. Group 4: Cross-Border Financial Services - The implementation plan includes measures to explore higher-level facilitation for cross-border financial personnel from Hong Kong and Macau, such as exemptions from professional subject exams and simplified registration procedures [6]. - The collaborative effort among various regulatory bodies aims to break down institutional barriers for cross-border financial talent and capital flow, enhancing Nansha's strategic position in the financial integration process of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [6].

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index futures is a fluctuating and moderately bullish pattern [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's center of gravity continued to rise last week, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. The core driver of last week's market was the China Central Finance and Economics Commission meeting on the 1st, which emphasized "anti - involution" through the construction of a unified market, leading to a sharp increase in market expectations for a new round of supply - side reform. The value style outperformed last week, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - Currently, the external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue [2] Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the market's center of gravity rose, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. In terms of sectors, steel, building materials, and banks led the gains, while computer, non - bank finance, and beauty care led the losses. The value style outperformed, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - **Future Outlook**: The current external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue. This week, attention should be paid to the release of June economic data in China [2] - **Factors to Watch**: Domestic economy and overseas tariff negotiation progress [3] Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The core operating range for the IF2507 main contract is between 3826 and 4024 points; for the IH2507 main contract, between 2649 and 2772 points; for the IC2507 main contract, between 5646 and 6025 points; and for the IM2507 main contract, between 5970 and 6372 points [4] - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Due to the frequent switching between value and growth styles recently, it is advisable to wait and see [5] Spot Market Review - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.72%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.62%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.27%, Germany's DAX fell 1.02%, and France's CAC 40 rose 0.06%. In the Asia - Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.85%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.52% [8] - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have risen. Last week, all major domestic indices also showed an upward trend [8] Index Valuation Tracking - As of June 27, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.93 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was 13.02 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the SSE 50 Index was 11.18 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 500 Index was 27.66 times, and the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.02 times [19][20] Market Capital Flow Review - **Investor and Fund Data**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in relevant charts. Last week, the capital interest rate declined, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [22]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the "30 Measures for Financial Support in Nansha" aims to enhance innovation and entrepreneurship, as well as cross-border financial cooperation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, positioning Nansha as a crucial hub for domestic and international economic circulation [1][2]. Group 1: Key Highlights of the Policy - The policy outlines 30 key measures focusing on six major directions: improving financial services for innovation and entrepreneurship, enhancing financial services in social welfare, developing specialized financial services, promoting financial market connectivity in the Greater Bay Area, facilitating cross-border financial innovation and exchanges, and refining financial regulatory mechanisms [2][3]. - The policy emphasizes three main aspects: focusing on the Bay Area with an emphasis on innovation, collaborating with Hong Kong and Macao to modernize and digitalize financial services, and promoting high-level institutional openness to the world [2][3]. Group 2: Implications for Financial Institutions - Financial institutions are encouraged to leverage policy benefits by focusing on cross-border services, technological empowerment, and green transformation through product innovation and ecosystem collaboration [4][5]. - Banks are advised to develop targeted products such as intellectual property pledge loans and supply chain finance, expand cross-border RMB settlement and trade financing, and engage in financial market infrastructure development [5][6]. Group 3: Talent and Ecosystem Development - The successful implementation of the policy relies heavily on talent development and ecosystem collaboration, with a focus on attracting international financial talent and enhancing cooperation with educational institutions in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao region [6].