【文/观察者网 齐倩】 当地时间1月5日，美国芯片制造商英伟达首席执行官（CEO）黄仁勋在美国拉斯维加斯消费电子展上发 布新一代Rubin平台。他说，该平台在推理成本和训练效率上实现大幅跃升，已全面投产，拟下半年发 货。 据路透社消息，黄仁勋当天不忘提中国市场，以及此前已获批对华出口的H200人工智能（AI）芯片。 在主旨演讲后，黄仁勋向金融分析师声称，中国市场对H200芯片"有需求"，且"需求强劲"。 英伟达首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯（Colette Kress）则表示，该公司已申请向中国运送H200芯片的许可 证，但正在等待美国和其他政府的批准。 上个月，路透社曾援引三位匿名知情人士报道称，英伟达已告知中国客户，计划于2026年2月中旬农历 春节假期前，对中国交付H200芯片。 1月5日，黄仁勋参加展会视频截图 现场视频显示，黄仁勋在演讲中，用大量篇幅盛赞了开源模型的革命性作用。 "开源模型已经触及技术前沿，"他提到，去年，DeepSeek R1向世人展示了高级推理可以开源，改变了 整个行业的发展轨迹。他认为，相比最前沿的AI模型，DeepSeek等AI开源模型落后约6个月，但"所有 开源模型都在以惊人的速 ...

【宏观动态】 11月工业企业利润同比增速续降至-13.1%，与当月出口的走强出现明显分化，整体内需动能趋弱。 美联储12月会议纪要公布在即，内部"强烈分歧"或继续揭示；特朗普或在1月第一周指定美联储新主席 人选。 十四届全国人大四次会议将于2026年3月5日在北京召开。 【卫星互联网】 商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准细化规则发布，要求申报时至少实现可重复使用火箭成功入 轨。 行情扩散至材料环节：封装、固体发动机材料、全氟聚醚润滑油、涂层及轻量化材料受关注。 周末市场关注度数据显示，商业航天板块拥挤度已突破20%。 美股商业航天概念股集体调整。 相关ETF： 卫星产业ETF(场内：159218) 【有色金属】 观点更新：AGI时间表被推迟至2030年代，但AI普及不会延迟，2026年将见证更多AI应用营收突破。 相关ETF： 云计算ETF(场内：159890)、半导体设备ETF(场内：561980)、TMT50ETF(场内：159909)、 软件龙头ETF(场内：159899) 【新能源】 宁德时代：2026年将在换电、乘用车、商用车、储能等领域大规模应用钠电池，形成"钠锂双星"趋势。 网传外资观点总结： ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 作者丨雷晨 编辑丨朱益民 2025年，A股算力板块经历了一场深刻的价值重塑。 从年初的政策预期驱动到年末的业绩兑现验证，相关指数全年表现亮眼。截至2025年12月25日，万得算 力主题指数指数（399363.SZ）收盘报7108点，年初以来累计涨幅高达80%。据Wind，年初至今A股算 力板块涌现22只涨幅翻倍大牛股，其中4股涨幅超400%，分别是仕佳光子、新易盛、永鼎股份、中际旭 创。 | < G | 万得算力主题指数[866468] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 7108.26 -37.90 -0.53% | | | | | 福彩 | 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | 月度收益 | | 名称 | | | 年初至今▼ | 股 == | | 仕佳光子 | | | 457.28% | 0.07 | | 688313.SH | | | | | | 新易盛 | | | 441.57% | 0.07 | | 300502.SZ | | | | | | 永鼎股份 | | | 425.89% ...

AI芯片、液冷技术、光模块等领域龙头业绩高增，资本聚焦具备技术壁垒和生态协同的头部企业，产 业迈向高质量发展。 2025年，A股算力板块经历了一场深刻的价值重塑。 从年初的政策预期驱动到年末的业绩兑现验证，相关指数全年表现亮眼。截至2025年12月25日，国证算 力基础设施指数（399363.SZ）收盘报9467.22点，年初以来累计涨幅高达80.74%。 这一年，资本市场对算力产业的认知经历了从"概念炒作"向"价值锚定"的转变，折射出全球算力竞争加 剧与国内产业升级需求叠加下，中国算力产业链的必然进阶。 在中美科技博弈持续深化、全球AI算力需求爆发的双重背景下，2025年的A股算力板块，既展现了国产 替代的强劲动能，也暴露了核心技术的现实短板，即部分高端芯片制程仍有提升空间、部分基础软件生 态适配度待加强。 结构性分化：价值锚点转向业绩兑现 2025年的A股算力板块，最显著的特征便是"冰火两重天"的结构性分化。 这种分化并非简单的板块轮动，而是资本市场对算力产业链各环节价值创造能力的重新评估，其核心逻 辑已从短期政策利好转向长期业绩兑现与技术壁垒。市场热点从"概念"向"业绩"集中，具备明确技术落 地路径和真 ...

【文/观察者网 齐倩】 美国总统特朗普允许英伟达对华出口H200人工智能（AI）芯片，但要抽成25%。 消息公布至今已有两周，但争议未息。美国民主党人认为特朗普巧作名目，变相征收"出口税"，性质极 其恶劣。共和党人一直反对增加企业税，但至今几乎未予以置评。 据美国政治新闻网（Politico）12月21日报道，一些专家和民主党议员的第一反应是反对，控诉此举就 是针对企业的"抢劫勒索"。然而，由于该费用此前闻所未闻，且特朗普和英伟达"一个愿打一个愿挨"， 他们琢磨后竟发现自己不知从何下手。 特朗普要求从英伟达收入中抽成的做法，在美国引发了一系列问题。 "他是在增税吗？"报道称，在一些人看来，特朗普这一要求很像增加"出口税"，而且这实际上将是特朗 普政府对英伟达施加的第二项费用。今年早些时候，白宫表示将允许英伟达向中国销售一款H20芯片， 前提是支付政府15%的收入。 有匿名美国官员此前向路透社透露，这笔25%的抽成费用，将在英伟达H200芯片自台湾地区运往美国 时，以进口税形式征收。台媒解读称，这意味着这笔额外费用将由台湾地区代工厂"接盘"。台媒记者向 代工大厂广达、纬创和华硕求证，目前广达予以否认，其余两家台 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has allowed Nvidia to export H200 AI chips to China with a 25% revenue share, aiming to challenge Chinese tech giants like Huawei, although there are doubts about the effectiveness of this strategy [1][3]. Group 1: Export Policy and Market Impact - The U.S. aims to promote competition in the Chinese market by allowing the export of H200 chips, which are considered "lagging" technology [1]. - David Sacks, a key proponent of this policy, expressed uncertainty about whether China would accept these chips, as they are pursuing semiconductor independence [1][3]. - Nvidia has removed Chinese market revenue from its forecasts, with analysts estimating potential annual revenue of $10 billion from H200 chips if accepted by China [3]. Group 2: Chip Specifications and Performance - The H200 chip features higher bandwidth memory compared to its predecessor, H100, enabling faster data processing, with performance nearly six times that of H20 [5]. - The export of H200 chips could allow Chinese AI labs to build supercomputers with performance close to top U.S. AI supercomputers, albeit at a higher cost [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Challenges - Chinese companies are actively developing domestic AI chips to replace Nvidia's market share, with Huawei announcing a roadmap for its Ascend AI chips [8][9]. - Concerns over security vulnerabilities and monopoly risks have led to increased scrutiny of Nvidia's operations in China, with regulatory investigations ongoing [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses NVIDIA's development of a location verification technology for its AI chips amid ongoing U.S. export restrictions on semiconductor technology to China, highlighting the geopolitical tensions and the company's response to concerns about chip smuggling [1][4]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Technology Development - NVIDIA is reportedly testing a location verification technology that can determine the country in which its chips are operating, aimed at preventing AI chips from being smuggled to countries affected by export bans [1]. - The technology will initially be available as an optional software for customers and will utilize NVIDIA's GPU capabilities for operation [1]. - The first implementation of this technology will be on the new Blackwell chips, with discussions ongoing for earlier generations [1]. Group 2: U.S. Export Restrictions and Geopolitical Context - The U.S. government has intensified export restrictions on semiconductor technology to China, citing national security concerns and the need to prevent AI chips from being smuggled into banned countries [4]. - NVIDIA's products are under scrutiny due to potential security vulnerabilities and monopoly risks, leading to investigations by Chinese authorities [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Response and Market Dynamics - In response to U.S. restrictions, Chinese companies are accelerating the development of their own AI chips to capture market share previously dominated by NVIDIA [5]. - Major Chinese tech firms, including Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance, are increasing investments in chip research and development to enhance their supply chain autonomy [5]. - The Chinese government has expressed strong opposition to U.S. actions, arguing that such measures hinder global semiconductor industry development and ultimately harm the U.S. itself [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has allowed NVIDIA to sell its H200 AI chips to China under strict conditions, including a 25% revenue share to the U.S. government, following a meeting between President Trump and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang. This decision is seen as a limited compromise to balance revenue pressures for NVIDIA while maintaining U.S. technological leadership [1][2]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Business Context - The H200 chip is a new generation high-performance GPU designed for large-scale AI and high-performance computing workloads, offering significant improvements in computing power, energy efficiency, and memory bandwidth compared to previous models [2]. - NVIDIA's profit margin in the AI chip sector is notably high, with a gross margin of 73.4% reported in the last fiscal quarter and total sales of $57 billion, which includes various chip series and network hardware [2]. - The approval for H200 sales is viewed as a specific case within the broader context of U.S. export restrictions on high-end AI chips to China, which previously included models like A100 and H100 [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The Chinese AI chip industry is rapidly advancing, with local products like Huawei's Ascend series approaching international standards, prompting the U.S. to reconsider its strict export policies [2][5]. - Despite the potential revenue from H200 sales, the 25% fee imposed by the U.S. government may significantly increase procurement costs for Chinese buyers, potentially altering the commercial landscape into a political transaction [3]. - Huang has expressed uncertainty about whether China will accept the H200 chips, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding U.S.-China chip trade relations [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - Huang has warned that if U.S. companies allow Chinese competitors like Huawei to capture market share, China could quickly seek to export its own AI technologies globally [5]. - Chinese companies are actively working to develop alternatives to NVIDIA's chips, with major tech firms like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu increasing their investments in chip research and design to gain greater control over the supply chain [5]. - The Chinese government has indicated that technological development should not be politicized, emphasizing that open cooperation is essential for global technological progress [5].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump to allow Nvidia to export its H200 AI chips to China marks a significant policy shift from the Biden administration's strict export controls on chip technology aimed at hindering China's semiconductor modernization efforts [3][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Trump stated that the decision includes conditions to safeguard U.S. national security and that the U.S. government will receive a 25% share of the revenue from these exports [1][6]. - The announcement effectively ends the ban on U.S. companies selling AI chips to China, contrasting sharply with previous restrictions [3][6]. - Nvidia's spokesperson described the decision as a "well-considered balance" that supports high-paying jobs and manufacturing in the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement, Nvidia's stock price rose nearly 3% in after-hours trading, indicating positive market sentiment [3]. - The H200 chip is reported to have significantly enhanced performance, being nearly six times more powerful than its predecessor, the H100 [3][4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang views this policy change as a victory, believing that increased sales to China will lead to greater reliance on Nvidia's technology and more funding for R&D [6]. - Despite the approval for the H200 chip, concerns remain about whether Chinese buyers will purchase it, especially given the previous restrictions and the introduction of alternative domestic AI chips by Chinese companies [7][8]. - Chinese firms are actively developing their own AI chips to compete with Nvidia, with major players like Huawei and Alibaba increasing their investments in chip R&D [8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has allowed NVIDIA to sell H200 AI chips to China under the condition of ensuring national security and taking a 25% cut from sales, marking a significant shift in U.S.-China tech policy [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of H200 Chip - The H200 chip is a next-generation AI chip from NVIDIA, boasting a performance that is six times greater than the previously allowed H20 chip, making it crucial for AI research and development in China [4]. - The chip's high bandwidth memory and data processing capabilities are expected to enable Chinese AI labs to build supercomputers that can compete with top-tier U.S. systems [4]. Group 2: Policy Shift and Lobbying Efforts - NVIDIA has been lobbying the U.S. government for months to regain access to the Chinese market, with recent meetings with Trump seen as pivotal in this policy shift [5]. - The Biden administration had previously imposed strict export controls on AI chips to China, forcing NVIDIA to create a downgraded version of its chips for the Chinese market [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The potential revenue from the Chinese market is significant for NVIDIA, with estimates suggesting quarterly exports could reach between $2 billion to $5 billion if geopolitical tensions ease [6]. - The 25% revenue sharing proposal by Trump is viewed as a unique approach, balancing national security concerns with economic interests, although it may face legal challenges [6][7]. Group 4: Ongoing Restrictions - Despite the allowance for H200 exports, the latest Blackwell and upcoming Rubin chips remain restricted, indicating that the U.S. is still keen on protecting its most advanced technologies [7]. - This selective release reflects a strategy to gain economic benefits while maintaining technological superiority over China [7]. Group 5: Impacts on U.S. and China - For U.S. tech companies like NVIDIA, this policy change is a positive development, potentially leading to increased market share and revenue growth [8]. - Conversely, while the H200 chip could alleviate China's current computing power shortages, it also emphasizes the need for continued investment in domestic chip development to reduce reliance on foreign technology [8][9]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The recent policy change does not guarantee a stable U.S.-China chip trade relationship, as the U.S. continues to prioritize maintaining its technological dominance while seeking economic gains [10][11]. - China's chip industry is progressing towards self-sufficiency, with companies like Huawei advancing their own AI chip technologies, indicating a long-term trend towards reduced dependency on U.S. high-end chips [11].