证券研究报告 | 2026年01月27日 $\Delta$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$ 公募 FOF 基金 2025 年四季度概览 截至 2025Q4，全市场已成立FOF产品数量 549 只，合计规模为 2441.88 亿元，相比 2025Q3 增加 26.20%。根据穿透后权益资产占比将FOF划 分为偏债型FOF、平衡型FOF和偏股型FOF，2025Q4 规模分别为 1611.13 亿元、454. ...

Core Insights - The active equity funds experienced a remarkable performance in 2025, with 94.91% of all funds generating positive returns, and 96.64% of active equity funds achieving positive returns over one year [3][4] - The emergence of "doubling funds" was a significant highlight, with 60 funds, including 51 active equity funds, achieving over 100% cumulative returns [4][5] - The strong performance of active equity funds is closely linked to the structural trends in the A-share market, particularly in technology sectors such as optical modules, PCB, cloud computing, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][5] Fund Performance - Among active equity funds, Yongying Technology Smart Selection A led with a return of 223.14%, making it the only fund to achieve "doubling" status [5] - Other notable performers included AVIC Opportunity Navigator A with 156.48% and Hengyue Advantage Selection A with 141.96% [5] - A total of 3419 funds outperformed their benchmark returns, representing 78.26% of the active equity funds [3] Market Trends - The "doubling funds" phenomenon is characterized by a clear structural market trend, with most funds heavily invested in the "computing power" industry chain, particularly in optical modules [5][6] - The communication sector emerged as a significant winner among passive index "doubling funds," with several funds achieving returns exceeding 110% [6] New Entrants and Management - The emergence of new fund managers was notable, with the average management tenure of fund managers for the "doubling funds" being only 3.01 years, and 43.33% having less than two years of experience [7][8] - Despite the high returns associated with newer fund managers, experienced managers also delivered strong performances, indicating a diverse range of expertise contributing to the success of these funds [8] Fund Management Companies - E Fund emerged as the largest winner in 2025, managing nine "doubling funds," with E Fund Rui Xiang I achieving the highest return of 119.38% [10] - Smaller fund companies also contributed significantly to the "doubling funds," with several achieving impressive returns despite their lower rankings in total assets [11][12] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the technology sector will continue to be a clear investment focus in 2026, recommending strategies such as "core + satellite" and "barbell" approaches for portfolio diversification [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the mixed strategies of public funds as they approach year-end, with some aiming to preserve gains while others seek to boost performance in the limited time remaining [1][3][5] - As of December 5, 22 actively managed equity funds have achieved over 100% annual returns, with the top performer, Yongying Technology Smart A, boasting a return of 202.13% [2][3] - The performance gap between the top funds is significant, with Yongying Technology Smart A outperforming the second-place fund by over 50 percentage points, indicating a competitive landscape for year-end rankings [3][4] Group 2 - The difficulty of achieving additional gains as year-end approaches is emphasized, with market volatility and liquidity concerns being key factors [5][6] - Recent market trends show a shift from high-growth stocks to a focus on valuation and profit quality, influenced by institutional investment patterns [6][7] - The upcoming policy meetings in December are expected to be critical for market movements, with historical data suggesting price fluctuations around these events [7][8] Group 3 - The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductor equipment, and lithium resources performing well, while traditional real estate and consumer sectors lag [8] - Analysts suggest that the growth trend has room for expansion, but structural shifts and increased volatility are anticipated, with a potential focus on new investment opportunities in the energy and chemical sectors [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the rising expectations for the year-end market rally, with significant divergence among public funds regarding their strategies for year-end positioning [1][2] - As of December 5, 22 actively managed equity funds have achieved returns exceeding 100% this year, with the highest return being 202.13% from Yongying Technology Smart A [3][4] - The performance ranking shows a significant gap between the top fund and others, indicating a competitive environment among fund managers to improve their rankings before year-end [4][6] Group 2 - There is a notable split in strategies among funds, with some aiming to preserve gains while others seek to capitalize on the year-end rally, reflecting differing performance levels throughout the year [5][6] - The market environment is described as complex, influenced by factors such as year-end liquidity, style rotation, and external disturbances, which may affect the potential for a year-end rally [6][7] - Historical data indicates that the timing of the year-end rally can vary, with the current year being particularly complicated due to external factors and market sentiment [7][8] Group 3 - Key sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor equipment, and high-end manufacturing are highlighted as areas of focus for future investment, while traditional sectors like real estate and consumer goods are recovering more slowly [8] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring structural shifts in the market, with potential opportunities arising from changes in investment focus and market dynamics [8]

Core Insights - The recent performance of active equity funds has been under scrutiny, with over 38% of these funds still in losses over the past five years despite a significant number achieving positive returns since 2025 [1][2][3] - Key factors contributing to the underperformance include high-level accumulation, frequent trading, and reliance on specific sectors, which have eroded fund values [1][5][7] Performance Overview - As of November 10, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 19.42%, while 97.45% of active equity funds reported positive returns [2][3] - However, 1019 active equity funds remain in losses, with 38% of the total, indicating a stark contrast in performance for investors who entered the market earlier [1][2] Fund Performance Analysis - Among the 2695 active equity funds with over five years of existence, 1676 have achieved positive returns, with six funds reporting over 200% returns [3] - Conversely, nearly 40% of active equity funds have not turned a profit in five years, with some funds experiencing maximum drawdowns starting in 2021 [3][4] Underperforming Funds - Notable underperformers include funds managed by well-known managers, with losses exceeding 30% over five years [4] - Specific funds like Tianzhi New Consumption and Fangzheng Fubang Innovation Power have reported losses of -65.25% and -62.32%, respectively [3][4] Trading Behavior - High average stock positions during market peaks have been linked to poor long-term performance, with funds showing an average stock position of 84.22% during critical periods [5][6] - Frequent trading has also negatively impacted fund performance, with an average turnover rate of 460.71% across all active equity funds, rising to 508.45% for those with over 30% losses [7][8] Sector Reliance - Many funds have shown over-reliance on traditional sectors, leading to underperformance despite being labeled as "new" or "growth" funds [8][9] - Funds like Tianzhi New Consumption and Invesco Great Wall New Growth have shifted their holdings but still struggle to achieve positive returns [8][9] Market Outlook - The active equity fund market is seeing a resurgence, with 1354 new funds launched in 2025, indicating renewed investor interest [11] - Fund managers are advised to focus on sectors with long-term growth potential, such as high-end manufacturing and new consumption, while being cautious of market volatility [12]

Core Insights - The article highlights the performance of active equity funds in the context of the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points for the first time in a decade, revealing that over 97% of these funds achieved positive returns since 2025, yet 38% remain in losses over the past five years [1][2][3] - Key reasons for the underperformance of many active funds include high-level accumulation, frequent trading, and reliance on specific sectors, which have eroded fund values [1][5][6] Performance Overview - As of November 10, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4018 points, marking a significant recovery, with major indices like the Shenzhen Composite and ChiNext Index showing gains of 27.6% and 46.35% respectively since 2025 [2] - Despite a high percentage of active equity funds showing positive returns in 2023, the long-term performance reveals a stark contrast, with many investors experiencing losses since entering the market around the end of 2020 [2][3] Fund Performance Analysis - Among the 2695 active equity funds with over five years of existence, 1676 have achieved positive returns, while nearly 40% remain unprofitable, with some funds experiencing drawdowns exceeding 50% [3][4] - Notable underperformers include funds managed by well-known managers, indicating that even established names are not immune to market challenges [4] Causes of Underperformance - High-level accumulation during market peaks has been identified as a significant factor contributing to the long-term underperformance of active equity funds [5][6] - Frequent trading has also negatively impacted fund performance, with average turnover rates for underperforming funds significantly higher than the market average [7][8] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The article notes a shift in investor sentiment towards active management products, with a notable increase in the number of newly established funds and a doubling of issuance scale compared to the previous year [11] - Fund managers are advised to focus on sectors with long-term growth potential, such as high-end manufacturing and new consumption, while being cautious of over-reliance on specific themes or sectors [12]

Overview of Public FOF Funds in Q3 2025 - As of Q3 2025, a total of 518 FOF products have been established in the market, with a combined scale of 193.49 billion yuan, representing a 16.44% increase compared to Q2 2025 [1][6] - The FOFs are categorized into three types based on the proportion of equity assets: debt-oriented FOFs (112.32 billion yuan), balanced FOFs (39.43 billion yuan), and equity-oriented FOFs (41.74 billion yuan). The median returns for these categories in Q3 2025 are 3.07%, 11.84%, and 21.20%, respectively [1][8][16] FOF Fund Manager Preferences - The most held active equity funds by FOFs in Q3 2025 are: 1. Fuguo Stable Growth A (33 FOFs) 2. Boda Growth Smart Navigation C (30 FOFs) 3. Invesco Great Wall Quality Evergreen A (26 FOFs) [2][27] - The largest positions by scale in active equity funds are: 1. E Fund Science and Technology Innovation (5.87 billion yuan) 2. Huaxia Innovation Frontier A (4.85 billion yuan) 3. Xingquan Business Model Preferred A (4.62 billion yuan) [2][28] Changes in Fund Allocations Compared to Q2 2025 - In active equity funds, the most net increased holdings by FOFs are: 1. Caitong Asset Management Digital Economy C (13 FOFs) 2. E Fund Growth Power C (13 FOFs) 3. Invesco Great Wall Stable Return C (6 FOFs) [3][40] - The largest net increase in scale for active equity funds is seen in E Fund Information Industry A (1.60 billion yuan) [3][41] FOF Stock Investment Situation - By Q3 2025, 158 FOFs have directly invested in stocks, with balanced FOFs having the highest proportion of stock investments [5] - The top three stocks held by FOFs are: 1. Zijin Mining 2. CATL 3. Cambricon Technologies [5] Performance of Different FOF Categories - The median returns for different FOF categories in Q3 2025 are: - Debt-oriented FOF: 3.07% - Balanced FOF: 11.84% - Equity-oriented FOF: 21.20% [16] - The top-performing funds in Q3 2025 for each category are: - Debt-oriented: Galaxy Zhiyuan Pension Target Date 2045 (12.79%) - Balanced: Penghua Pension 2045 (25.24%) - Equity: Guotai Youxuan Leading One-Year Holding (59.42%) [18][20][22] FOF Fund Management Companies - As of Q3 2025, there are 82 fund companies engaged in FOF business, with the top five managing 40.71% of the total scale [9] - The leading fund managers by scale are: 1. China Europe Fund (9.44%) 2. Xingsheng Global Fund (9.42%) 3. E Fund (8.29%) [9] FOF Issuance and Market Trends - In Q3 2025, 20 new FOFs were issued, an increase of 4 from Q2 2025 [13] - The overall performance of FOFs has improved significantly compared to previous years, with median returns recovering from negative figures in 2022 to positive returns in 2025 [15][16]

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown significant recovery in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high of 4025.70 points by the end of October, leading to a strong performance of public equity funds and the emergence of numerous "doubling funds" [1][3] Group 1: Fund Performance - The average net value growth rate of actively managed equity funds for the first ten months reached 27.48%, with the best-performing funds exceeding 200% [3][5] - Over 98% of actively managed equity funds reported positive net value growth rates, with 705 funds achieving over 50% growth, and 34 funds surpassing 100% [7][5] - The top-performing fund, Yongying Technology Smart Selection A, achieved a net value growth rate of 200.63%, capitalizing on opportunities in the cloud computing market [9][8] Group 2: Index and Sector Performance - Major indices such as the ChiNext Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index saw annual growth rates exceeding 50%, with the ChiNext Index at 48.84% [1][4] - The communication equipment sector emerged as a significant winner, with related index funds showing remarkable performance, including the Guotai CSI All-Index Communication Equipment ETF, which had a growth rate of 98.87% [12][13] Group 3: Investment Themes and Manager Insights - Fund managers are focusing on structural opportunities in sectors like AI, innovative drugs, and robotics, which have shown strong performance [7][14] - Investment strategies include a focus on domestic semiconductor equipment and energy storage, with managers highlighting the increasing production capacity of domestic storage chips and the growing demand for energy storage solutions [15][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the latest heavy holdings of public FOFs (Fund of Funds) as revealed in the 2025 Q3 reports, with bond funds being the primary focus, accounting for over half of the holdings [1][3] - The top five funds favored by FOFs in Q3 include Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF, Hua An Gold ETF, Ping An Zhong Dai - Zhong Gao Deng Gong Si Dai Li Cha Yin Zi ETF, Bosera Zhong Dai 0-3 Nian Guo Kai Hang ETF, and Bosera Shang Zheng 30 Nian Qi Guo Dai ETF [1][3] - As of the end of Q3, the Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF had a market value held by FOFs exceeding 3.29 billion yuan, making it the highest valued fund held by FOFs [3][4] Group 2 - The number of bond funds in the top 50 heavy holdings of FOFs reached 31, representing over half of the total, indicating a strong preference for bond investments [3] - The most increased fund in Q3 was the Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF, which saw an increase of 1.647 billion yuan in holdings, bringing its total to 3.29 billion yuan [4] - FOFs have also shown interest in actively managed equity funds, with the top holdings being Yi Fang Da Ke Rong and Hua Xia Chuang Xin Qian Yan A, with market values of 590 million yuan and 485 million yuan respectively [3][4] Group 3 - FOF managers have expressed confidence in the A-share market, with a focus on gold-related funds and increased allocations in technology and resource sectors [6][7] - The manager of Guotai Youxuan Lihang Fund emphasized the significant opportunity for gold and silver prices, while also noting the potential for the rare earth industry due to new regulatory policies [6] - The manager of Zhong Ou Yujian Pension 2035 Fund highlighted a long-term asset allocation strategy, maintaining optimism about consumer-related sectors and overseas bond markets [7]

Market Overview - The market has shown a strong upward trend since the "9·24" rally last year, with the CSI 300 index surpassing 4600 points and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high of 3732 points on August 18 [1] - The ChiNext index has experienced a robust surge, with an annual increase of nearly 50% in the second half of this year [1] Fund Performance - Active equity funds have demonstrated significant excess return capabilities, with nearly 3000 out of approximately 4300 funds achieving over 20% returns year-to-date as of September 26 [2] - Among these, over 700 funds have returned more than 50%, and 125 funds have exceeded 80% returns, with E Fund leading in the number of high-performing funds [2] Long-term Fund Performance - Over a one-year period, nearly 250 funds have doubled their performance, with notable contributions from firms like E Fund, which has over 10 doubling funds [4] - E Fund's products have primarily invested in high-performing sectors such as technology and healthcare, showcasing strong stock-picking abilities [4] Sustained Returns - From a medium to long-term perspective, over 850 active equity funds have annualized returns exceeding 10% over three years, with 158 funds achieving over 20% [5] - E Fund leads with 14 funds in the 20%+ category, indicating a strong performance relative to competitors [5] Investment Philosophy - E Fund's investment philosophy emphasizes deep research and value discovery, which has been a cornerstone of its strategy since its inception in 2001 [7] - The firm employs a "big platform + small team" management model, allowing for resource sharing while maintaining independent investment strategies [8] Research and Development - E Fund has developed a comprehensive research team covering various sectors, ensuring broad market coverage and a global perspective [9] - The firm emphasizes the importance of in-depth research and real-time tracking to ensure timely investment decisions [9] Technology Integration - E Fund is advancing its digital transformation, integrating workflows and data management to enhance process management and efficiency [10][11] Team Culture - The company promotes a collaborative team culture, encouraging knowledge sharing and interaction among research teams to enhance investment outcomes [12] - E Fund has established a robust talent development system, ensuring a continuous influx of skilled professionals into its investment teams [12] Notable Fund Managers - Several fund managers at E Fund have achieved remarkable performance, with some funds nearing a 100% return year-to-date [17][18] - The firm has produced multiple "double ten" fund managers, indicating a strong track record of long-term performance [20] Conclusion - E Fund's commitment to deep research, long-term investment strategies, and a systematic approach to talent development has positioned it as a leader in the asset management industry, capable of delivering sustainable returns [24][25]