传媒/游戏Ⅱ 吉比特（603444.SH） 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 475.50 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 668.00/198.21 | | 总市值(亿元) | 342.56 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 342.56 | | 总股本(亿股) | 0.72 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 0.72 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 157.33 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 吉比特 沪深300 相关研究报告 《《九牧之野》上线在即，看好新游持 续驱动公司成长—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.12.12 《出海及新游或持续驱动业绩高增长 —公司信息更新报告》-2025.10.29 《Q2 业绩高增，高分红延续，新游及 出海驱动成长 —公司信息更新报告》 -2025.8.20 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 2026 年 01 月 30 日 证书编号：S0790520030004 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - Century Huatong, a leading gaming company in A-shares, forecasts significant growth in revenue, profit, and cash flow by 2025, with net profit expected to increase by up to 475% year-on-year [2][3]. Financial Performance - The estimated net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 5.55 billion and 6.98 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 357% to 475% [3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains is expected to be between 5.8 billion and 6.33 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 252.97% to 285.22% compared to the previous year [3]. - Basic earnings per share are forecasted to be between 0.77 yuan and 0.97 yuan, up from 0.17 yuan in the previous year [3]. Product Performance - The past two years have been significant for Century Huatong, launching several hit products, including the phenomenon-level game "Whiteout Survival," which has achieved new highs three years post-launch [4]. - The new hit "Kingshot" ranks third in the Chinese mobile game overseas market, while "Tasty Travels: Merge Games" has entered the top 15 [4]. Market Position - According to Sensor Tower, Century Huatong's subsidiary, Didi Interactive, ranks second in global revenue among mobile game publishers, surpassing major competitors like NetEase and Mihayou, with a projected global revenue growth of 87% in 2025 [5]. - The game "Whiteout Survival" is expected to see a 45% increase in revenue to 2.1 billion USD (approximately 14.6 billion yuan) in 2025, maintaining its position as the top-grossing overseas mobile game for 24 consecutive months [5]. Stock Performance - As of January 29, Century Huatong's stock rose approximately 1% to 18.86 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 139 billion yuan, making it the highest-valued gaming company in A-shares [5]. - The stock price has increased from 5 yuan per share to 17 yuan per share, reflecting a cumulative growth of about 240% [5]. - Since the beginning of 2026, the stock has risen by over 10% [5]. Industry Context - The Chinese gaming industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with increasing polarization, but companies with blockbuster products can still stand out [6].

Core Viewpoint - Century Huatong (002602.SZ), a leading player in the A-share gaming sector, forecasts significant growth in revenue, profit, and cash flow by 2025, with net profit expected to increase by up to 475% year-on-year [2][3]. Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated to be between 5.55 billion and 6.98 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 357.47% to 475.34% [3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 5.8 billion and 6.33 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 252.97% to 285.22% compared to the previous year [3]. - Basic earnings per share are projected to be between 0.77 yuan and 0.97 yuan, up from 0.17 yuan in the previous year [3]. Product Performance - The past two years have been significant for Century Huatong, launching multiple hit products, including the phenomenon-level game "Whiteout Survival," which has seen renewed success three years post-launch [4]. - The new hit game "Kingshot" ranks third in the Chinese mobile game overseas market, while "Tasty Travels: Merge Games" has entered the top 15 [4]. - According to Sensor Tower, Century Huatong's subsidiary, Diandian Interactive, ranks second in global revenue among mobile game publishers, surpassing major competitors like NetEase and miHoYo, with a projected global revenue growth of 87% in 2025 [4]. Market Position - As of January 29, Century Huatong's stock price increased by approximately 1% to 18.86 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 139 billion yuan, making it the highest-valued gaming company in the A-share market [6]. - The stock price has risen from 5 yuan to 17 yuan per share, reflecting a cumulative increase of about 240% [6]. - The gaming industry in China is experiencing intensified competition, with resources increasingly concentrating among leading firms, yet companies with blockbuster products continue to thrive [7].

Core Viewpoint - Century Huatong (002602.SZ), a leading gaming company in A-shares, announced a significant increase in revenue, profit, and cash flow for 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth across all metrics [1]. Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 5.55 billion and 6.98 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 357.47% to 475.34% [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 5.8 billion and 6.33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 252.97% to 285.22% [2]. - Basic earnings per share are estimated to be between 0.77 yuan and 0.97 yuan, compared to 0.17 yuan in the previous year [2]. - Revenue for 2025 is projected to be approximately 38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 68% [2]. Product Performance - The past two years have been significant for Century Huatong, with multiple hit products launched [3]. - The game "Whiteout Survival" has achieved record highs three years post-launch, while "Kingshot" ranks third in the Chinese mobile game overseas market [3]. - "Tasty Travels: Merge Games" has entered the top 15 of the Chinese mobile game overseas market [3]. - According to Sensor Tower, Century Huatong's subsidiary, Dandian Interactive, ranked second in global revenue among mobile game publishers, surpassing major competitors like NetEase and miHoYo [3]. - Dandian Interactive is expected to see a 87% increase in global revenue in 2025, with "Whiteout Survival" projected to generate 2.1 billion USD (approximately 14.6 billion yuan) in revenue, marking a 45% year-on-year increase [3]. Market Position - As of January 29, Century Huatong's stock price rose approximately 1% to 18.86 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 139 billion yuan, making it the highest valued gaming company in A-shares [4]. - The stock price has increased from 5 yuan to 17 yuan per share over the course of 2025, representing a cumulative increase of about 240% [4]. - Since the beginning of 2026, the stock price has risen by over 10% [4]. Industry Context - The Chinese gaming industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with increasing polarization, where resources are concentrating towards leading companies [5]. - Despite the competitive landscape, game companies with blockbuster products can still stand out [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company has engaged in extensive research and development activities, showcasing strong performance in game releases and strategic planning for future growth, particularly in international markets and through the integration of AI technology in operations. Group 1: Game Performance and Releases - The company received 222 institutional research visits from October 29 to December 31, 2025, highlighting interest in its game portfolio [1] - "杖剑传说" (Staff Sword Legend) achieved an average ranking of 43 and a peak of 23 on the App Store in mainland China during Q4 2025, with successful overseas launches in regions like Macau and Japan [1][3] - "问道手游" (Wandao Mobile Game) maintained an average ranking of 66 and peaked at 43, while "一念逍遥" (One Thought of Freedom) and "问剑长生" (Sword of Life) introduced new features and events to enhance player engagement [4][5] Group 2: New Game Launches and Strategies - The new game "九牧之野" (Jiumu Zhiye) saw over one million pre-launch reservations, achieving the top position in the App Store free games category and 22nd in the revenue rankings [2][6] - The company plans to focus on community engagement and dynamic marketing strategies based on user lifetime value (LTV) and return on investment (ROI) for its game releases [7] Group 3: AI Integration in Game Development - AI technology is deeply integrated into both game development and operations, enhancing efficiency in art resource production and code writing through platforms like AIWebHub [9] - AI applications extend to user acquisition, personalized in-game offers, and monitoring of game environments to improve overall user experience and operational efficiency [9] Group 4: Shareholder Returns and Financial Planning - The company has established a shareholder return plan for 2025-2027, committing to three profit distributions annually, with cash dividends expected to be at least 50% of the net profit [10] - In the first nine months of 2025, the company distributed 904 million yuan in cash dividends, representing 74.47% of the net profit for that period [10]

Group 1 - The core logic of the report revolves around "AI and IP coexisting," indicating that the media industry is expected to experience high overall prosperity, with profits and valuations likely to resonate together. The media industry is projected to rise by 24% in 2025, driven by breakthroughs in AI large models and performance releases [1][22] - The media industry's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 38%. In Q3 alone, net profit growth reached 61%, significantly enhancing profitability [1][26] - In the gaming sector, both supply and demand are robust, with revenue and net profit increasing by 24% and 89% year-on-year, respectively. The film industry benefited from high-quality IP content, with net profit soaring by 110% year-on-year [1][28] Group 2 - AI has become the core growth engine, with accelerated application across multiple fields. Major companies are rapidly iterating large models, establishing a foundation for the application ecosystem. In the gaming sector, relaxed licensing has boosted new game supply, while AI is restructuring development processes to reduce costs and enhance efficiency [2][47] - The film industry is experiencing a resurgence due to supportive policies like the "21 Regulations," which have relaxed content restrictions. AI video tools and short dramas are expected to expand the industry significantly, benefiting companies like Mango TV and Shanghai Film [2][39] - In marketing, AI continues to empower programmatic advertising platforms, optimizing algorithms to improve customer acquisition efficiency. Companies like HuiLiang Technology and Inertia Media are expected to benefit significantly [2][14] Group 3 - The IP business is undergoing multi-dimensional upgrades, with overseas expansion becoming a core growth driver. Categories such as online literature, games, and trendy toys are rapidly increasing their market share abroad, with companies like Pop Mart seeing significant growth in overseas revenue [3][10] - The expansion of categories continues to deepen, with IP extending from online content to offline derivatives and theme parks, achieving full-scene coverage. The capitalization process is accelerating, with companies like Card Game and 52TOYS filing for listings [3][11] - Leading companies like Yuewen Group and Aofei Entertainment are leveraging their rich IP reserves and full industry chain operational advantages to lead the market [3][14]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry is expected to experience robust growth driven by strong supply and demand dynamics, with profitability likely to continue rising in 2025 due to an increase in game approvals and innovative new titles from major companies like Tencent and NetEase [1][3]. Supply Side - The number of game approvals has significantly increased, with a 24% year-on-year growth in the total number of licenses issued from January to October this year, reaching 1,441, including 1,354 domestic licenses, which is a 26% increase [3][6]. - The approval process for game licenses has become more efficient, with the fastest approvals now taking less than three months, allowing companies to better plan their game launches [3][6]. - Policy support for the gaming industry has been strengthening, with national and local governments implementing measures to promote cultural exports and simplify approval processes [7][8]. Demand Side - The gaming sector is adept at capturing user time across various formats, from quick mobile games to immersive PC and console experiences, catering to diverse entertainment needs [9][10]. - The share of time allocated to gaming is expected to increase, with a projected rise in gaming hours in the first half of the year, driven by both established and new titles performing well [11][14]. Industry Trends - The gaming industry is witnessing a trend of increasing profitability, with revenue growth rates for major gaming companies reaching new highs, and net profit growth significantly outpacing revenue growth [18][20]. - Companies are focusing on high-quality projects and have established clearer competitive advantages, leading to higher project success rates [20]. - The integration of AI in game development and operations is enhancing efficiency, with AI being used for generating art assets and optimizing various processes [32]. Marketing and Distribution - Traditional user acquisition methods are declining, with a shift towards content-driven marketing strategies through social media and community platforms, which are proving to be more effective [23][25]. - The legal landscape is evolving, allowing developers to bypass traditional distribution channels, which could significantly enhance profit margins by reducing revenue sharing with platforms [30][31].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the upcoming game "九牧之野" (Nine Warriors) is expected to drive significant revenue growth due to its innovative gameplay and strong player interest, with a public test scheduled for December 18, 2025 [4][12] - The company anticipates substantial increases in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, projecting net profits of 16.32 billion, 19.28 billion, and 23.12 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 22.65, 26.77, and 32.10 yuan [4][48] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to recover from 3.696 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.855 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 58.4% [6] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 87.9% in 2024 to 93.6% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [6] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 25.6% in 2024 to 27.9% in 2025, showcasing operational efficiency [6] - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 34.3 in 2024 to 19.9 in 2025, suggesting a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [6] Game Development Insights - "九牧之野" is designed to cater to a broad audience with its 三国 (Three Kingdoms) theme and innovative SLG+RTS gameplay, which combines strategic planning with real-time combat [5][12] - The game aims to reduce player fatigue and spending through mechanisms like "前 200 抽橙卡不重复" (first 200 draws guarantee no duplicates), which is expected to enhance player retention and engagement [5][24] - The report highlights the game's strong pre-launch performance, with over 100,000 pre-registrations within a short period, indicating positive market reception [4][37] Market Positioning - The company is positioned to compete effectively in the SLG market, with "九牧之野" expected to join the ranks of top-performing games like "万国觉醒" (Rise of Kingdoms) and "三国志·战略版" (Three Kingdoms: Strategy Edition) [45][46] - The report notes that the game's innovative features and strong marketing strategies, including partnerships with popular streamers, are likely to drive its success upon launch [37][43]

Group 1: Gaming Industry Insights - In November 2025, a total of 178 domestic games received approval from the National Press and Publication Administration, marking a new high for the number of approvals in a single batch [1] - Six imported games also received approval in November, with notable domestic titles like Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" and G-bits' "Staff Sword Legend" showing strong performance, potentially enhancing the profitability of related listed companies [1] - The gaming industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook, with recommendations to focus on companies with key product launches or reserves, as well as high-quality overseas game content companies [1] Group 2: AI Application Development - The Qianwen App, launched by Alibaba Group, surpassed 10 million downloads within a week of its public beta, indicating strong user interest and potential for building a comprehensive AI application ecosystem [2] - The app allows users to generate complete and well-formatted research reports and presentations with a single command, showcasing its advanced capabilities [2] - The company plans to integrate various life scenarios such as maps, food delivery, ticket booking, and shopping into the Qianwen App, aiming to create a smart task execution hub [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese gaming market's actual sales revenue for Q3 2025 reached 880.26 billion yuan, marking a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.96% but a year-on-year decline of 4.08% [1] - The revenue from self-developed games in overseas markets was 49.94 billion USD, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.39% [1] Market Performance - The client game market in China generated 202.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.05% and a year-on-year growth of 19.88% [1] - The mobile game market's revenue was 643.89 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.39% but a year-on-year decline of 1.93% [1] - The web game market saw a revenue of 10.75 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.41% [1] Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, 23 A-share gaming companies reported a total revenue of 772.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.30%, and a net profit of 141.67 billion yuan, up 73.95% [2][3] - Century Huatong achieved significant growth with a revenue of 272.23 billion yuan and a net profit of 43.57 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 141.65% [3] - 13 out of 23 gaming companies reported revenue growth, while 17 companies were profitable, indicating a positive trend in the industry [3] Notable Companies - Perfect World and Giant Network improved their rankings to 3rd and 7th respectively, while Jiubite also saw a ranking increase [6] - Jiubite's revenue for the first three quarters was 44.86 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 59.17% and a net profit of 12.14 billion yuan, up 84.66% [7] - Ice Age Network turned a profit with a revenue of 18.76 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 5.39%, and a net profit of 5.02 billion yuan, a significant increase from a loss in the previous year [8]