一件潮玩背后，藏着一座城市怎样的"性格密码"？下面的这份报告，试图给出答案。 由每日经济新闻·天府文创云编制的《何以弄潮——城市潮玩产业发展分析研究报告》（以下简称《报 告》）今日正式发布。 《报告》将"潮玩"置于城市发展的宏观坐标系下，深度剖析了这一新兴产业从亚文化现象到千亿级产业 生态的演进逻辑。当IP正加速成为驱动消费的核心引擎，潮玩这门关于"情绪价值"的生意，已成为城市 布局文创产业不容忽视的关键赛道之一。 《报告》指出，潮玩早已超越"盲盒"的单一形态，演化为一门涵盖IP孵化、供应链管理、全球化叙事 的"情绪生意"。对于每一座力图在新兴产业浪潮中抢占先机的城市而言，这不仅是一股消费潮流，更是 一个关乎未来产业布局、文化影响力塑造与人才引力的关键议题。 格局：不止于"盲盒"的千亿级版图 作为典型的朝阳产业，潮玩以IP为核心，具备轻资产、高附加值、强延展性的特点。它不仅能直接带动 设计、制造、零售等实体产业，更能与动漫、游戏、影视等内容产业深度联动，形成强大的产业乘数效 应。对于城市而言，发展潮玩产业，就是链接最具活力的年轻消费群体，抢占未来文化消费新高地。 《报告》的数据，揭示了潮玩产业的迅猛增速：中国 ...

记者丨 易佳颖 "卖家要求退货必须要扇孩子巴掌的行为，不仅有悖公序良俗，更是涉嫌违法，应当坚决予以 制止。"北京市京师律师事务所律师孟博在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示，根据《民法 典》第十九条的规定，八周岁以上的未成年人为限制民事行为能力人，实施民事法律行为由其 法定代理人代理或者经其法定代理人同意、追认。 他进一步指出，这也就意味着，如果限制民事行为能力人从事网购的花费超出行为能力，且未 得到其监护人的追认，则该网购行为无效。在此情形下，卖家应当及时予以办理退货退款。 而对此， 千岛则表示，注意到讨论中存在一些误解和不实信息。本次交易纠纷因个人闲置交 易引发，未使用千岛闪购服务。文章中出现的聊天截图为买卖双方的私聊截图，并非买家和平 台客服的沟通内容。 据悉，千岛平台上涵盖了潮玩、卡牌、模型等多品类的交易，其中"闪购"频道主打"官方查 验、正品保障、统一仓储发货"。据媒体报道，2025年千岛整体成交额预计超百亿元，且已连 续6年成交额翻倍增长，其中潮玩交易贡献七成份额。 此外，千岛方面特别解释道，买家向平台客服介绍情况时，自述相关交易系孩子使用外婆手机 购买，更是直言，"众所周知，未成年群体在个人闲置 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shifeng Culture Development Co., Ltd., has announced its plans to provide guarantees for credit financing to support its business operations and those of its subsidiaries, with a total guarantee amount not exceeding RMB 1.2 billion [1][3]. Group 1: Credit Financing Overview - The company plans to apply for a credit financing limit of up to RMB 1.2 billion from financial institutions, including banks and non-bank financial institutions, to meet the funding needs of the company and its subsidiaries [1][2]. - The financing methods include credit, mortgage, or guarantees, and the types of business include loans, bill acceptance, bill discounting, and opening letters of credit [1]. Group 2: Guarantee Details - The company and its subsidiaries will provide mutual guarantees for credit financing, with a total guarantee amount not exceeding RMB 1.2 billion, which includes guarantees for subsidiaries with different asset-liability ratios [3]. - For subsidiaries with an asset-liability ratio exceeding 70%, the guarantee amount will not exceed RMB 500 million, while for those with an asset-liability ratio not exceeding 70%, the guarantee amount will not exceed RMB 700 million [3]. Group 3: Recent Financing Activities - Recently, the company signed a working capital loan agreement with Bank of Communications, Shantou Branch, for a total loan amount of RMB 70 million, which falls within the approved financing limit for 2025 [2]. - The company’s subsidiaries have also signed guarantee contracts with the bank to support the financing activities [4]. Group 4: Financial Data and Guarantee Agreements - The company has cumulative external guarantees amounting to RMB 274.10 million, which accounts for 38.09% of the company's most recent audited total assets, with no overdue guarantees or litigation-related guarantees [11]. - The guarantees include various contracts such as working capital loan contracts, guarantee contracts, and mortgage contracts with the bank [11].

Core Viewpoint - AI provides a historic opportunity for China's economy, aiding in overcoming the middle-income trap and addressing the challenges of an aging population. The transition from a policy-driven phase to a performance-driven phase is underway, indicating a significant economic transformation ahead [1][31]. Group 1: Economic Growth Paradigm - China's economy is entering a new growth paradigm, with a shift in capital market dynamics towards "innovation-efficiency" as evidenced by the rise of companies like Cambricon [2]. - The government's strategic focus on AI development has been solidified with the release of the "AI+" action plan, marking AI's elevation to a national strategy [2][5]. Group 2: Market Validation and AI Impact - Current market trends suggest that the assumptions made in AI models are being validated, with a recognition that both "dreams" and "reality" are being traded in the market [5]. - AI's penetration is expected to significantly mitigate the decline in potential economic growth rates, with projections indicating that a 20% AI penetration could sustain growth at around 5.8% by 2035, compared to a baseline of 4.6% [6][7]. Group 3: Capital Structure Transformation - The transition from "land finance" to "computing power finance" is a profound and irreversible trend, reshaping local government financial structures [10][11]. - The sustainability of this transition relies on increasing computing power utilization and the ability to generate revenue from AI-related assets [12][14]. Group 4: Addressing the Solow Paradox - AI has the potential to address the Solow Paradox, where technological advancements do not immediately translate into productivity gains. Key indicators include the ratio of AI capital expenditure and the revenue-to-cost ratio [15][16]. - A systematic measure called Elasticity of Compute-to-Output (ECO) is proposed to assess AI's impact on productivity, with a threshold of ECO greater than 0.25 indicating effective productivity enhancement [16]. Group 5: Market Valuation and Pricing Models - Traditional valuation metrics are inadequate for AI companies, which are often priced based on future earnings potential rather than current profitability [19][20]. - A more robust valuation approach involves using compute rent discount models and focusing on cash flow from AI-related revenues [20]. Group 6: Application and Commercial Viability - The most promising areas for AI applications that could achieve commercial viability include AI in financial services, industrial software, and biopharmaceuticals, with financial services expected to lead in generating cash flow [22][23]. - The criteria for identifying sectors likely to achieve commercial success include rigid demand, quantifiable ROI, and established data barriers [23]. Group 7: Strategic Outlook and Market Signals - The goal of achieving over 70% penetration of new intelligent applications by 2027 is aimed at creating a substantial domestic market for AI, fostering competition and profitability [25]. - Key signals to monitor for potential market overheating include financing ratios, regulatory attitudes, and insider selling behaviors [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is entering a new growth paradigm driven by innovation and efficiency, with artificial intelligence (AI) becoming a national strategic priority as evidenced by recent government policies and market movements [2][3]. Group 1: AI's Impact on Economic Growth - AI development is projected to significantly enhance technological progress and economies of scale, potentially stabilizing the decline in China's potential economic growth rate [2][5]. - By 2035, under a scenario where AI penetration reaches 20%, the potential growth rate could be maintained at approximately 5.8%, compared to a baseline scenario of about 4.6% [5][8]. - The current market dynamics reflect a transition from speculative "dreams" to tangible "reality," with AI's impact on productivity becoming a critical observation point [3][4]. Group 2: Market Validation and Valuation - The market is currently pricing both "dreams" and "realities," with significant capital inflow into AI companies like Cambrian, which has seen its stock price soar [3][8]. - The valuation of AI companies is shifting from traditional metrics like price-to-earnings (PE) ratios to new models based on compute rent and cash flow projections [16][17]. - Cambrian's high valuation reflects market expectations of its future cash flows rather than current profitability, indicating a speculative phase that may transition to a more sustainable growth model as productivity gains materialize [16][17]. Group 3: Structural Changes in Capital Allocation - The shift from "land finance" to "compute finance" signifies a deep transformation in China's capital structure, with local governments moving from land sales to monetizing computational power [9][10]. - This transition is seen as sustainable but requires time and policy support to fully realize its potential [9][10]. - The success of "compute finance" hinges on increasing compute usage rates and the ability to generate revenue from AI assets [10][12]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Opportunities - The most promising applications of AI that are likely to achieve commercial viability include AI in financial services, industrial software, and biopharmaceuticals, which are expected to generate solid cash flows and establish market barriers [19][22]. - The financial sector is identified as the most likely to achieve rapid commercial success, followed by manufacturing, indicating a strategic focus for investment [23][24]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The government's goal of achieving over 70% penetration of new intelligent applications by 2027 aims to create a substantial domestic market for AI, fostering competition and profitability [24]. - Investors should monitor key signals such as market leverage, regulatory attitudes, and insider selling to gauge potential market tops in the AI sector [25][26]. - The long-term significance of AI for the Chinese economy lies in its potential to overcome structural challenges and enhance productivity, marking a critical phase in economic development [29].

本报记者 许林艳 近日，受泡泡玛特IP手办LABUBU火爆影响，投资者对潮玩经济关注度骤升。6月16日，北京元隆雅图 文化传播股份有限公司（以下简称"元隆雅图"）再涨停，报收27.42元/股，而近12个交易日以来，该公 司共收获了8个涨停板。当日晚间，元隆雅图再次发布股票交易异常波动公告称，近期公司经营情况及 内外部经营环境均没有发生或预计将要发生重大变化。 "潮玩经济火热折射出消费市场正从'实用主义'向'情绪经济'转型，商家通过个性化产品满足大众精神需 求。"中国电子商务专家服务中心副主任郭涛如是说。 今年3月份，广东省韶关市武江区人民政府与韶关市阳威潮玩动漫有限公司举行签约仪式，总投资3000 万元的阳威塑胶制品生产基地项目正式落户武江城乡融合产业园。项目将建设集塑胶制品研发、生产、 销售于一体的现代化生产基地，主要生产潮流动漫手办、模型及扭蛋、盲盒等周边产品。项目投产后， 预计年产值将超过2亿元。 6月10日，浙江省商务厅等17部门联合印发了《关于支持游戏出海的若干措施》，围绕游戏产业提升、 平台支撑、生态优化、要素保障四个方面，提出20条具体措施，推动游戏产业做大做强、国际化发展。 当前，我国潮玩市场 ...