2025 年 08 月 22 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | œ 4 | | --- | | # | | 务 | | 1 | | 研究所： | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 | S0350521080004 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 | S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | 证券分析师： | 张钰莹 | S0350524100004 | | | zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn | 联系人 | ： | 王鹏 | S0350125040009 | | wangp05@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | [Table_Title] Q2 归母净利润同比大增，两机订单保障持续增 长动力 ——应流股份（603308）公司动态研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | 2025/08/21 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 应流股份 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 应流股份（603308） 证券研究报告 25Q2 利润高增，两机叶片订单开启加速放量 2025 年 H1：1）实现营收 13.84 亿元，同比+9.11%；实现归母净利润 1.88 亿元，同比+23.91%；实 现扣非归母净利润 1.87 亿元，同比+25.6%。2）实现毛利率 36.33%，同比+1.96pct；归母净利润率 13.61%，同比+1.63pct；扣非归母净利润率 13.51%，同比+1.77pct。3）期间费用率为 22.81%，同比 -2.67pct，销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 1.4%、8.19%、9.17%、4.05%，同比分别变动-0.08、 +1.42、-3.45、-0.56pct。 2025Q2 单季度：1）实现营收 7.21 亿元，同比+19.05%，环比+8.82%；实现归母净利润 0.96 亿元， 同比+56.75%，环比+4.53%；实现扣非归母净利润 0.97 亿元，同比+64.11%，环比+8.27%。2）Q2 单季度毛利率 35.86%，同比+1.43pct，环比-0.97pct；归母净利润率 13.34%，同比+3.21pct，环 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][22]. Core Insights - The company achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 56.8% in Q2, reflecting a strong performance and continued optimism regarding its strategic positioning in four new productivity directions [1]. - The company is focusing on four major areas: aviation engines, gas turbines, nuclear energy new materials, and low-altitude economy, which are considered future strategic productivity drivers [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected total revenue for 2024 is 2,513 million, increasing to 2,943 million in 2025, 3,504 million in 2026, and 4,808 million in 2027, with respective growth rates of 4.2%, 17.1%, 19.1%, and 37.2% [2][12]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profit for 2024 is 286 million, rising to 401 million in 2025, 529 million in 2026, and 736 million in 2027, with growth rates of -5.6%, 39.9%, 32.1%, and 39.0% respectively [2][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 0.42 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.59 yuan in 2025, 0.78 yuan in 2026, and 1.08 yuan in 2027 [2][12]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 64 in 2024 to 25 in 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 3.9 to 3.1 over the same period [2][12]. Business Segment Performance - **High-Temperature Alloy and Precision Casting**: Revenue reached 8.42 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.41% and a gross margin of 38.42% [6]. - **Nuclear Power and Large Casting Products**: Generated 3.26 billion in revenue, up 5.57% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 34.59% [6]. - **New Materials and Equipment**: Achieved a revenue of 1.46 billion, marking a significant growth of 74.49% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 31.94% [6]. Strategic Developments - The company has deepened collaborations in the aviation engine sector with major clients like GE Aviation and China Commercial Aircraft Corporation, leading to substantial order volumes [6]. - In the gas turbine segment, the company has become the sole supplier of certain components for Siemens Energy in China, indicating a strong market position [6]. - The nuclear energy business is benefiting from stable approvals for new units, with the company making advancements in new product development [6]. - The low-altitude economy segment is expected to reach a profitability turning point, with ongoing developments in drone technology and airport operations [6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the machinery sector, particularly highlighting specific companies for investment opportunities [13]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector shows short-term fluctuations in operating rates but maintains a long-term recovery logic driven by domestic demand [7][25]. - The new shipbuilding prices have stabilized and are showing signs of recovery, indicating an upward trend in industry sentiment [7][46]. - The gas turbine sector is experiencing robust growth, with significant increases in orders and production expected [7][55]. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 0.26% over the past week, ranking 24th among 31 primary industry categories [3][16]. - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 8.29%, ranking 7th among the same categories [3][18]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The general machinery sector continues to face pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, indicating contraction [24]. Engineering Machinery - The operating rate for major engineering machinery products was 56.9% in June, down 7.55% year-on-year [7][25]. - The average working hours for these products were 77.2 hours, reflecting a decline of 9.11% year-on-year [7][25]. Shipbuilding - The global new ship price index reached 187.11 in June, marking a 0.22% increase, the first rise since February [7][46]. Oilfield Equipment - The global rig count has stabilized at over 1,600 units, indicating a bottoming out of demand in the oilfield equipment sector [48]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is on a steady upward trajectory, with GEV's new orders increasing by 44.9% in Q1 2025 [55][56]. Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery trends in various segments, including engineering machinery, shipbuilding, and gas turbines, as they present potential investment opportunities [7][55].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading manufacturer of high-end casting components, benefiting from trends in AIDC, aerospace technology, and nuclear fusion industries [1][9] - The company has established a complete high-end component production system and is a key member of the high-end equipment manufacturing industry chain in China [18][19] - The company plans to issue 1.5 billion convertible bonds to enhance its production capabilities in turbine blade processing and advanced nuclear materials [9][33] Summary by Relevant Sections Business Overview - The company focuses on aviation engines and gas turbine products, benefiting from the demand for domestic large aircraft and AIDC [18] - The company has a strong presence in the high-end parts, aerospace technology, and advanced materials sectors, serving various high-end equipment fields [18][22] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company expects revenue of 2,513 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a net profit of 286 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% [4][25] - The company's sales gross margin is projected to be 34.2%, with a net margin of 10% for 2024 [27][28] Gas Turbine Sector - The global gas turbine market is estimated to be 28.14 billion USD in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% from 2025 to 2034 [46] - The company is recognized as a domestic leader in gas turbine blades, with a significant increase in orders, achieving a 102.8% year-on-year growth in 2024 [2][61] Aerospace Sector - The global aerospace engine market was approximately 113.97 billion USD in 2023, expected to reach 151.20 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.12% [67] - The company is positioned to benefit from the doubling of global aircraft numbers over the next 20 years, as predicted by Airbus [68] Nuclear Power Sector - The nuclear power industry is expected to grow, with a projected CAGR of 8.4% for installed capacity from 2023 to 2035 [3] - The company has established joint ventures to engage in nuclear fusion materials and components, enhancing its position in the nuclear energy sector [3][9]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The aviation engine industry in China is primarily dominated by a few key players, with a significant focus on innovation, research and development, and market expansion to enhance their competitive edge in both military and civilian sectors [1][18]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The aviation engine manufacturing segment includes four main types: turbojet, turbofan, turboshaft, and turboprop engines, largely monopolized by the China Aviation Engine Group [1]. - Key companies in the industry include Aviation Power (航发动力), Aviation Technology (航发科技), and Aviation Control (航发控制), among others [1][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Aviation Power reported a revenue of 449.94 billion yuan in 2024, leading the industry in terms of revenue [16]. - The average gross margin for listed companies in the aviation engine sector is around 25%, with individual margins ranging from 10% to 35% [16]. - Aviation Control achieved a gross margin of 28.11% in 2024, reflecting its strong technological innovation capabilities [16]. Group 3: Business Layout and Market Position - Aviation Power and Aviation Technology have over 50% of their business focused on aviation engines, indicating a strong commitment to this sector [13]. - The regional distribution of companies shows that titanium alloy leaders are mainly located in Shaanxi, while other material representatives are concentrated in the East China region [5]. Group 4: Future Business Plans - Companies are focusing on innovation and R&D investments to expand their aviation engine business, with plans to enhance their capabilities in high-temperature alloy components and precision casting [19]. - Aviation Technology aims to participate in the development of the C919 aircraft's engines and expand its international subcontracting business [19]. Group 5: Key Financial Metrics - The largest revenue-generating company in the aluminum and high-strength steel sector is China Aluminum, with a revenue of 2370.66 billion yuan [4]. - The revenue of Aviation Power in the aviation engine sector is projected to exceed 400 billion yuan in 2024, highlighting its market leadership [4]. Group 6: Patent and Employee Information - China Aluminum and Aviation Power hold over 1000 patents, indicating a strong focus on innovation [8]. - Southern Airlines has the largest employee count among listed companies, exceeding 100,000 [8].

Industry Overview - The aviation engine industry is crucial for national economy and security, serving as the power source for various aircraft and representing a country's comprehensive strength [1] - Aviation engines can be categorized into several types based on thrust generation principles and oxidizer sources, including piston engines, rocket engines, ramjet engines, and turbine engines [1] Industry Chain Analysis - The aviation engine industry chain includes research and design, manufacturing (raw materials, components, complete machine manufacturing), operation, and maintenance [3] - China has established a complete research and production system for aviation engines, with key participants including universities and research institutes [4] Development History - The Chinese aviation engine industry has evolved from imitation to independent research and development, achieving significant self-innovation capabilities supported by national policies [5][8] Policy Background - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating the research and development of advanced aviation engine materials and technologies, promoting the development of civil large bypass ratio turbofan engines [10] Current Market Status - The aviation engine industry has vast market potential, with a global annual output of over 14,000 units and an estimated annual value of around $70 billion [12] - The Chinese commercial aviation engine market is expected to experience explosive growth, with projected deliveries reaching 19,000 units and a market value exceeding $300 billion over the next 20 years [12] Demand Trends - Both military and civil aviation sectors in China are witnessing an upward trend in aircraft numbers, with the military fleet expected to reach 3,309 aircraft by the end of 2024 [14] - The number of civil passenger and cargo aircraft in China has also been increasing, with approximately 4,400 aircraft expected in 2024 [15] Competitive Landscape - The aviation engine market is primarily dominated by foreign manufacturers, with significant gaps in capabilities compared to the US, Russia, and other military powers [17][19] - The global commercial aviation engine market is largely controlled by a few companies, with CFM International and Pratt & Whitney holding substantial market shares [20] Future Development Trends - The Chinese aviation engine manufacturing industry is expected to focus on independent innovation, quality improvement, international cooperation, and sustainable development [24]