2025 年 10 月 8 日 星期三 ➢ 每日大市点评 10 月 6 日，港股大盘在南下资金缺席下连续两天回调，但仍企稳 10 天移动平均线以上。全天恒生指数下跌 0.7%，收报 26,957 点；恒生科技指数下跌 1.1%，收报 6,550 点。大市成交 1,212.6 亿港元。盘面上，芯片股和贵金属个股继续涨 势，华虹（1347 HK）上涨 4.6%，中芯国际（981 HK）先跌后回升 0.1%；腾讯（700 HK）混元图像 3.0 全球"盲测"登顶 文生图第一，股价周一上升 0.6%；金价每盎司重上 3900 美元，紫金黄金（2259 HK）和招金矿业（1818 HK）上涨 3.8%- 8.2%。市场在 A 股恢复交易前观望气氛浓厚，短期小幅整固仍属健康，预计恒生指数持续在 27,000 点附近徘徊。当前资 金仍偏向投资在景气度较高的板块。 行业动态： 消费板块：澳门统计局公布，2025 年十一国庆连中秋 8 天假期的首四天共录得 67.7 万人次到访旅客，日均 16.9 万人次， 同比+20.5%，其中到访澳门的内地旅客日均人次同比+25.2%，而访澳的香港旅客日均同比-10.4%。由于内地旅客访澳 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on asset prices, leading to a weaker dollar and stronger precious metals, alongside a slight increase in easing expectations due to weakened economic growth forecasts [2][6] - The election of high-profile political figures in Japan is expected to bring back fiscal stimulus and slow down interest rate hikes, resulting in a weaker yen and a steepening of Japanese government bond yields, which has led to a significant rise in Japanese stocks [3][12] - The report maintains a positive outlook for the fourth quarter and the year-end market, emphasizing that the technology sector will continue to drive market trends more than cyclical sectors until spring 2026 [3][17] Group 2 - The report anticipates that spring 2026 may present challenges for the A-share market, including a critical verification period for demand and potential delays in the emergence of new market phases due to weak demand [3][17] - It suggests that the technology sector will likely experience a long-term price-performance issue, similar to previous years, indicating a potential mid-term consolidation phase [3][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of the "technology main line" and specific cyclical sectors with supply logic, focusing on AI applications, semiconductor manufacturing, and storage as key investment areas [3][18][19] Group 3 - The report identifies the ongoing trend of "反内卷" (anti-involution) as a critical structural transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals [3][19] - It expresses a continued positive outlook for Hong Kong stocks, which are expected to benefit from global easing and the trends in new economic industries [3][21] - The report notes that the AI industry trend is strengthening, with significant advancements in applications and storage demand, indicating a robust investment landscape in these areas [3][12][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The investment logic for domestic computing power is evolving from the supply side to the demand side, with AI application demand becoming a new engine for "domestic computing power" [1] - The release of multi-modal large models marks a significant breakthrough, driving the growth of AI applications and consequently the demand for domestic computing power [5] - Key companies such as DeepSeek, Zhiyuan, and Alibaba are demonstrating advancements in AI model compatibility and performance, showcasing the collaborative capabilities of domestic computing power [1][5] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The electronic industry is experiencing a growth trajectory, with significant advancements in AI capabilities and multi-modal applications [5] - The competition is shifting from single-language intelligence to multi-modal generation and understanding capabilities, with domestic companies rapidly catching up to international standards [5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for cloud computing power include Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Chipone, Shengke Communication, and Zhaoyi Innovation, with a focus on companies like Aojie Technology and Yutai Micro [2] - For edge computing power, recommended companies include Amlogic, Rockchip, and Hengxuan Technology, with attention to companies like Lexin Technology [2] Key Company Valuations - Cambrian (688256) has a market cap of 554.31 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 325.55 for 2025E [7] - Haiguang Information (688041) has a market cap of 587.13 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 205.37 for 2025E [7] - Chipone (688521) has a market cap of 96.21 billion, with a projected PE ratio of -963.16 for 2025E [7] - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) has a market cap of 142.33 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 86.01 for 2025E [7] - Amlogic (688099) has a market cap of 46.82 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 44.12 for 2025E [7] - Rockchip (603893) has a market cap of 94.89 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 89.15 for 2025E [7] - Hengxuan Technology (688608) has a market cap of 50.09 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 57.88 for 2025E [7]

港股晨报 港股回顾 点，跌幅随即扩大至 247 点，低见 23730 点，其后跌幅 一度收窄至仅 20 点，午后大盘走势偏软，尾盘沽压再 度扩大。截至收盘，恒指收报 23831 点，下跌 145 点或 0.61%；国指收报 9656 点，下跌 47 点或 0.49%，大市 成交进一步减至 827.99 亿。港股通录得净流入资金 4.84 亿，其中港股通(沪)净流入 2.83 亿，港股通(深)净 流入 2.01 亿。板块方面，本地地产、软件、5G 概念板 块跌幅靠前；黄金股逆市走强。 上周五港股股指震荡走低，其中恒生科技指数一 度大跌至 3.2%，最终收跌 2.89%报 6195 点，恒生 指数跌 1.35%再度回到 26000 关口附近，国企指 数跌 1.49%险守 9300 点。科技股集体退潮大市承 压，其中，小米大跌 8%，京东跌 3.7%，快手、阿 里巴巴跌超 3%；特朗普表示 10 月 1 日起对任何 品牌或专利的医药产品征收 100%的关税，生物医 药股集体下跌，创新药方向跌幅明显。 美股市场 1. 上周五美股三大指数集体收涨，道指涨 0.65%， 纳指涨 0.44%，标普 500 指数涨 0.59 ...