各位投资者朋友大家上午好。欢迎来到 1 周一度的大摩宏观策略谈，我是邢自强 Robin。从七月份以来， 每一个礼拜一的电话会议里面，我们不断强调一个判断，水流来了。今天我们想系统性的整合对这个水 牛背后的一些逻辑框架，特别是融合最近投资者朋友们给我们的一些市场反馈。在未来这个水流的持续 性的驱动力，以及潜在的可能会改变它的一些制约因素上做一些分析。 发言人 00:39 当然了，这个水流来了也不是一个简单的口号。大家也会感觉到，七月初的时候，可能它是一个水流， 小荷才露尖尖角。但进入八月份以来，这个水温上的比较快，甚至有点略微烫人了。可以明显的感受到 我们周边的一些投资者问我们基本面的问题少了一些问资金面、问流动性、问宏大叙事的问题变多了。 特别是很多人都会问对水流的前世今生、历史规律，对它处于不同阶段有没有一些征兆，这方面的诉求 变强了。对这块因为术业有专攻，应该是由我们负责策略和跨了跨资产配置的 lyra 首席策略师和他的 团队更为擅长。但不巧的是上周出差东京，这周目前 Laura 在去美国的飞机上，所以缺席两次。但大 家可能从过去一周他和他的团队发布的研究报告，以及在像 bloomberg 之类做的访谈， ...

中国入境游市场前景广阔，预计未来十年收入年化增长约 19%，上半年 外国人入境增长 30%，旅游服务出口增长超过 60%，免签政策是重要 推动力，AI 和科技发展消除语言障碍。 Q&A 近期市场的主要驱动力是什么？ 近期市场的主要驱动力可以归结为三大因素。首先是宏观叙事的改善，自去年 9 月以来，政策方向逐渐清晰，信心有所恢复。其次是微观产业提供了许多燃 点，例如 AI 算力自主化、创新药和新消费等结构性主题不断涌现。最重要的是 资金流入股市，从七月初开始，资金搬家现象显著增加，这种流动性驱动的行 情正在推动市场上涨。 当前经济基本面的情况如何？ 当前经济基本面仍然较为疲弱。预计三季度 GDP 增长速度将回落至 4.5%左右。 从八月份的高频指标来看，七月份的数据全面低于预期，而八月份在天气因素 消退后可能会略有反弹，但整体表现仍不如二季度。出口端抢出口效应消退， 集装箱码头数据下行；耐用消费品消费，即使有以旧换新第三轮资金下发，但 汽车、家电同比恶化；房地产市场仍在调整中，二手房成交和价格继续探底； 财政刺激效果有限，大项目虽批复但基建需求有限。 大摩闭门会：邢自强-牛市未歇 20250825 摘要 中国经 ...

Core Insights - Users reported that Apple phones experienced location inaccuracies, showing users in Sichuan while they were actually in Beijing [1] - Affected applications include Gaode Map, Didi, shared bicycles, and KEEP, indicating a broader issue with location services [2] - Similar location issues were noted in 2024, suggesting a recurring problem potentially linked to network base station errors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing trend of pet-friendly travel reflects a growing societal demand for emotional connections with pets, transforming them into family members rather than mere animals [10]. Group 1: Industry Developments - Starting from April 8, 2023, the railway department initiated a pilot program for pet transportation services on certain high-speed trains, which was expanded on June 20, 2023 [6][8]. - The pet travel service market has surpassed 32 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual compound growth rate of approximately 10% [10]. - Various airlines, including Hainan Airlines and Capital Airlines, have introduced pet cabin services, catering to the needs of pet owners [8]. Group 2: Consumer Experience - Pet owners have reported positive experiences with the new pet transportation services, highlighting the convenience and clarity of the process [7]. - However, there are complaints regarding misleading "pet-friendly" designations in accommodations and restaurants, leading to unexpected restrictions and additional fees [11][12]. - The demand for pet-friendly accommodations has surged, with a reported 80% increase in bookings for pet-friendly listings during the May Day holiday [9]. Group 3: Regulatory and Social Challenges - The current lack of unified regulations and clear responsibilities among local authorities complicates the management of pet-friendly spaces [12][13]. - There is a need for improved legal frameworks to define the rights and responsibilities of pet owners and businesses, ensuring a balanced approach to pet-friendly services [13][14]. - The industry calls for a more transparent certification system for pet-friendly services, which would clarify conditions, service offerings, and associated costs [13].

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Guidelines for Safe Triggering of Shake Advertising" aims to standardize practices in the industry to address the issue of unintended ad redirection caused by shake advertising, ensuring user autonomy and protection of personal information [1][2][5]. Group 1: Guidelines Overview - The "Guidelines" specify that app and SDK operators must provide easy options for users to disable shake advertising and set reasonable triggering thresholds to protect user choice [1][5]. - The guidelines are based on legal and policy standards, emphasizing the need for transparency, user autonomy, and personal information protection [2][5]. Group 2: Technical Requirements - The guidelines require that third-party SDK operators must clearly indicate the actions needed to trigger ads and provide a prominent option to close ads [6][7]. - Specific parameters for triggering sensitivity are suggested, such as an acceleration threshold of no less than 15 m/s² and a minimum operation time of 3 seconds [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Response - Several apps, including Tencent Video, Didi, and Bilibili, have already implemented features allowing users to easily enable or disable shake advertising [10][12]. - The guidelines are part of a broader initiative by regulatory bodies to address user rights and improve the advertising experience, following previous complaints and legal actions against misleading ad practices [8][10].