8月11日，在2025世界机器人大会现场的直播中，景顺长城基金经理孟棋表示，当前机器人产业正经 历"从蹒跚学步到能跑会跳"的关键期，同时应用场景加速落地，投资上需要聚焦真正具备技术迭代能力 和务实场景落地的企业。对于机器人板块的行情波动，孟棋认为，机器人作为"新生"板块，波动不可避 免，但可以看到行情呈现波浪式上升，预计明年特斯拉擎天柱量产或将强化确定性。展望机器人产业的 发展和投资，孟棋表示，机器人行业的发展和投资需要长期主义，一方面企业要保持专注力、工匠精 神，不断创新迭代；投资则需要从基本面、长期主义出发，挖掘优质企业并伴随企业成长。(上证报) ...

2025年可以说是人形机器人的"破圈"之年，更是量产元年。机器人越来越能整活儿，资本也越来越为之 疯狂。有人从中看到了未来，有人看到了泡沫。 观察者网：胡总您好。 胡德波：王老师您好，欢迎您到访开普勒。给您介绍一下，这是开普勒最新一代人形机器人——K2大 黄蜂。 观察者网：哈喽，K2，你好。 当我们还在看一众机器人表演时，有位低调的"超级蓝领"，早就到上汽通用"搬砖"去了。连Figure（美 国人形机器人"明星"企业）的CEO都亲自给它点赞。它就是对标特斯拉擎天柱的开普勒K2大黄蜂。 近日，观察者网·未来方法论栏目来到上海张江人工智能岛，对话上海开普勒机器人有限公司CEO胡德 波。胡德波说，开普勒约80%的零部件为自研，得益于行星滚柱丝杠执行器等核心技术，大黄蜂可实现 30公斤负重和8小时续航。 他认为，目前在全球人形机器人行业当中，中国凭借强大的供应链、丰富的应用场景、惊人的迭代速度 等优势脱颖而出。中国、美国在第一梯队，欧洲一部分国家是第二梯队，传统的机器人大国日本反而掉 队了。 以下为对话实录： 【对话/胡德波&王慧 编辑/王恺雯、张菁娟】 0:00 胡德波：是的，已经在进行打工人的上岗训练。K2大黄蜂 ...

Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is entering a phase of accelerated business expansion, with significant procurement orders from companies like Zhiyuan and Yuzhu, totaling 120 million yuan and over 90 million yuan respectively [1] - Tesla's project on the Optimus robot has reportedly been paused, indicating potential challenges in production adjustments [1] - The industrial sector is recognized as a primary focus for humanoid robots, with companies launching products aimed at factory training [1] Industry Progress - The company is initiating small-scale production and expects to deliver 100 units this year, with targets of 1,000 units next year and 10,000 units the following year, reflecting a projected annual growth rate of 10 times [2] - The demand from downstream industries is substantial, and the company anticipates that a significant portion of the robots will be deployed in industrial scenarios [2] Strategic Focus - The company has strategically chosen to target industrial environments for early-stage deployment due to their structured nature and lower requirements for generalization compared to home environments [3] - The investment return in industrial scenarios is clear and calculable, making it an attractive area for deployment [4] Economic Viability - A humanoid robot can potentially replace 70% to 80% of a worker's labor efficiency, equating to a labor value of approximately 150,000 yuan per year, given the average labor cost in the Yangtze River Delta [7] - The company aims to price its humanoid robots at around $20,000 per unit, allowing customers to recoup their investment within 1 to 2 years [7] Technological Advancements - The company's humanoid robots are designed for industrial applications, utilizing a unique configuration that allows for long operational hours with low power consumption [9] - The robots employ a hybrid bionic architecture, which enhances energy efficiency and stability [9] Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned competitively with other players like Tesla and Apptronik, focusing on industrial training and pilot applications [13] - Domestic manufacturers are reportedly achieving global leadership in robot body and motion control, while foreign companies lead in advanced cognitive models [13] Challenges and Future Directions - The humanoid robot industry still faces challenges in achieving stability and reliability for industrial applications, with expectations for significant improvements in the next 2 to 3 years [14] - The company is working on establishing a data-driven approach to enhance embodied intelligence, aiming to reduce deployment times from weeks to days or hours [15]

Group 1 - The humanoid robot industry is in its early development stage but is expected to accelerate in application over the next 3-5 years across industrial, service, and hazardous scenarios [1] - The humanoid robot sector has seen increased activity, with companies like Upwind New Materials experiencing significant stock price increases following announcements of strategic acquisitions [1][2] - A major procurement order worth 124 million yuan (approximately 17.5 million USD) from China Mobile marks a significant milestone for the humanoid robot industry, indicating a shift from technology validation to large-scale commercial use [1][2] Group 2 - The global humanoid robot market is projected to reach approximately 1 billion USD in 2024, with an expected annual shipment of 11,900 units, and is anticipated to expand to 15.1 billion USD by 2030, corresponding to annual sales of 680,000 units [3] - The commercialization of humanoid robots is becoming more feasible as production costs decrease, with a focus on companies that can produce core components at lower costs [4] - Lightweight technology is expected to drive the next iteration of humanoid robots, improving performance metrics such as walking speed and battery life [4] Group 3 - Companies like UBTECH and Horizon Robotics are actively expanding their humanoid robot offerings, with UBTECH reporting significant orders for its educational humanoid robots [5][6] - Horizon Robotics is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 57.5% from 2025 to 2027, with expectations of reaching breakeven by 2028 [6] - GAC Group has outlined a clear roadmap for mass production of its humanoid robots, aiming for significant production milestones by 2025 and beyond [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Solid-state batteries are expected to be a key breakthrough in the battery industry, particularly for humanoid robots, as the commercialization process accelerates [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Opportunities - The battery supply chain is experiencing new opportunities due to the commercialization of humanoid robots, with Tianpeng Power, a subsidiary of Blue Lithium, receiving orders for cylindrical battery cells from a humanoid robot client [1]. - Tianpeng Power is projected to supply 60% of its products to Yushu in 2024, with expectations of doubling this figure in 2025 [1]. - EVE Energy is also actively engaging with leading humanoid robot companies and automotive manufacturers to provide customized battery solutions [2]. Group 2: Technical Requirements - Humanoid robots require batteries with high energy density, high power output, high discharge rates (2-3C), safety, and long lifespan, with energy density being particularly critical [2][3]. - Current humanoid robots typically have a battery life of under 2 hours, with some achieving 2-6 hours, but there is a market expectation for 8-10 hours of operational time [3]. Group 3: Innovations in Battery Technology - The industry is exploring solid-state batteries as a solution to meet the increasing demands for energy density and performance in humanoid robots [3][4]. - Companies like GAC Group and Softcom are developing humanoid robots with solid-state batteries, achieving significant energy efficiency improvements [4][5]. - Predictions indicate that the global shipment of lithium batteries for humanoid robots will reach 2.2 GWh by 2025, with demand exceeding 100 GWh by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 100% from 2025 to 2030 [5].