摘要： 不玩"花活"，聚焦主业 11月，车圈没有等来往年的"翘尾效应"。 随着置换补贴陆续中止，车市冲高势头开始回落。据乘联分会数据，11月1-23日，全国乘用车市场零售138.4万辆，同 比下降11%，环比下降2% 这一变化令全行业始料未及。尽管如此，蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌在上周的三季度财报电话会，以及后续小范 围媒体沟通会上重申"对四季度盈利目标有信心"。 除了眼前的盈利目标，李斌还谈到了蔚来的长期发展，他认为相当长一段时间里，蔚来都会聚焦智能电动车主 业。"少玩'花活'，多干实事，聚焦主业踏实卖车，踏实做好主营，"李斌说，"希望下一步大家看到蔚来真的是行业里 面最踏实努力干活的公司。" 那么，李斌的底气源自哪里？过了盈利这道"坎"，蔚来又打算如何跑赢决赛圈？ 全新ES8压阵，李斌对四季度盈利有信心 "总得来讲，（置换补贴退坡）不影响Q4总体经营计划目标。"媒体沟通会上李斌表示，他认为全新ES8等高毛利车型 的热销，能有效对冲政策带来的短期影响。 李斌的判断在11月销量数字上得到了验证。 11月，蔚来交付新车36275台，同比增长76.3%。其中，蔚来品牌交付新车18393台，连续四个月增长；全新 ...

名为"置换补贴"的蝴蝶煽动翅膀，11月的车圈刮起一阵寒风。 9月底开始，全国范围内汽车置换补贴政策陆续暂停。据乘联分会数据，11月1-23日，全国乘用车市场 零售138.4万辆，同比下降11%，环比下降2%。 置换补贴退坡带来的影响令许多人始料未及。上周，蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌在一场小范围媒体 沟通会上戳破了这层窗户纸。"原来业内都想着有翘尾效应，10月下旬大家心存侥幸。但事实上11月整 个行业新增订单大幅下降，消费者大多在持币观望。" 营收指引新势力第一， 全新ES8交付将提速 尽管和全行业一样面临置换补贴退坡的挑战，李斌仍表示对蔚来四季度盈利目标有信心。"盈利上没有 Plan B。" 同样令很多人始料未及的是，蔚来不仅在三季度交出了一份"史上最强"成绩单，同时面对政策退坡压 力，其四季度营收指引竟然也位列新势力第一。 今年三季度，蔚来营收达到217.9亿元，同比增长16.7%，环比增长14.7%，创历史新高；四季度营收指 引327.58亿元人民币-340.39亿元人民币，同比大幅增长约66.3%-72.8%。 年初还在"ICU"里的蔚来，凭什么在年底逆势增长？ 李斌的底气来源，一是ES8等高定价、 ...

Core Insights - December 2025 is a critical month for the automotive industry, with companies increasing discounts and the countdown for tax exemptions on new energy vehicles approaching [1][3] Group 1: Tesla Promotions - Tesla has announced exclusive December promotions for three models: Model 3, Model Y, and Model Y L [4] - The promotions include financing options such as 5 years at 0% interest or 3 years at 0% interest, along with an 8000 yuan limited-time insurance subsidy [6] - Specific pricing for Model 3 ranges from 235,500 to 339,500 yuan, with a down payment of 79,900 yuan and monthly payments starting at 2,460 yuan [9] Group 2: Other New Energy Vehicles - Other domestic new energy vehicle brands are also offering discounts and policies, including local automotive consumption vouchers [13] - The new Deep Blue S05 model features a cash discount of 2,000 yuan, an 8,000 yuan trade-in subsidy, and a price starting at 119,900 yuan after discounts [15] - The Deep Blue S07 model offers a cash discount of 3,000 yuan and a trade-in subsidy of 8,000 yuan, with a starting price of 138,900 yuan after discounts [17] Group 3: Market Opportunities - Consumers planning to purchase vehicles before the end of the year have a significant opportunity due to the upcoming discounts [3][18] - The automotive industry is expected to see more companies announcing their December purchase incentives, creating a favorable environment for buyers [18]

"我们坚定地回到创业公司的管理模式，以此来面对新时代、新技术的挑战。" 文 丨 龚方毅 赵宇 编辑 丨 龚方毅 大家好，我是李想，欢迎大家参加今天的业绩电话会议。 首先我来回顾一下理想汽车的一季度表 现…… 大家好，我是李想，欢迎大家参加今天的业绩电话会议。今年 7 月份，中国新能源汽车渗透率已 经接近 50%…… 大家好，我是李想，欢迎大家参加今天的业绩电话会议。三季度，中国新能源汽车渗透率已经达 到 50.3%…… 大家好，我是李想，欢迎大家参加今天的业绩电话会议。2024 年，中国新能源汽车市场保持快速 增长态势…… 大家好，我是李想，欢迎大家参加今天的业绩电话会议。首先回顾下理想汽车一季度的表现…… 大家好，我是李想，欢迎大家参加今天的业绩电话会议。2025 年二季度，我们共交付新车超 11 万辆…… 大家好，我是李想。 2025 年三季度，也是理想汽车面向第二个十年的第一个季度，我们经历了产品周期、公关舆情、 供应链爬产、政策变化等带来的各种挑战…… 以上是 2024 年一季度至今，理想汽车董事长兼 CEO 李想所做的季度业绩电话会开场。最后一条是他 今天（11 月 26 日）做的最新开场，基本是他 ...

在中国市场，特斯拉被国产汽车制造商全方位包围，市场占有率正持续下滑，汽车销售收入增速也出现明显放缓。小米、蔚来、小鹏等都想踩着特斯拉实 现销量突飞猛进，甚至是在第四季度盈利。 特斯拉似乎走到了关键的岔路口，又不得已做出了"错误"的选择。 但就是这样的处境下，特斯拉11月已正式通知其全球供应商：未来两年内，所有供应给美国工厂的汽车零部件，必须彻底排除中国产品。 多重压力的夹击下，特斯拉的未来发展将会是什么样？ 销量骤降的特斯拉 当下，特斯拉在中国市场的销量正经历断崖式下跌，市场表现令人担忧。 懂车帝数据显示，2025年10月，特斯拉Model Y和Model 3的销量合计26006辆。同比下降35.76%，环比下降63.64%，创2022年11月以来新低。其中，曾 长期稳坐SUV销冠的ModelY表现尤为惨淡，2025年10月销量仅为1.95万辆，被小米YU7以3.37万辆的成绩大幅度超越。 图/特斯拉"去中国化"来源/互联网 新能源观截图 特斯拉"去中国化"的战略倾向将自己推向舆论焦点，间接拉远了与中国消费者的距离，影响购买意愿。长远来看，它或许会失去中国这个重要市场。 这是特斯拉不想看到的。11月26日，特 ...

Group 1 - Xiaomi celebrates the production of its 500,000th vehicle, marking a significant milestone in its automotive journey, achieved in just over 1 year and 7 months. This indicates the validation of Xiaomi's capabilities across the entire automotive ecosystem, including R&D, manufacturing, sales, delivery, and service [2] - Xiaomi's CEO emphasizes the importance of safety and quality as foundational elements, committing to enhance production while ensuring these standards. The company plans to continue focusing on technological innovation and the integration of AI and smart manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The pure electric large three-row SUV market has seen a significant increase in sales, leading the market for two consecutive months. In October 2025, sales reached 39,921 units, surpassing plug-in hybrids (35,217 units), fuel vehicles (34,031 units), and range-extended vehicles (24,562 units) [2] - The sales growth of pure electric large three-row SUVs is driven by models such as NIO's new ES8, Leado L90, and Tesla's Model Y L, indicating a widening lead over other powertrain types [2] Group 3 - BMW China announces the launch of the new BMW X5, which will feature the Pro intelligent driving assistance system as standard across all models starting from January 2026. The new models are priced between 598,000 and 748,000 yuan [2] - The new BMW X5 will also include front seat ventilation and heating for both front and rear seats as standard from November 2025 [2] Group 4 - GAC Toyota's sales vice president refutes rumors regarding the discontinuation of several key fuel vehicle models, clarifying that such information is false. Previous market speculation suggested that at least two main fuel models would be discontinued by 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady revenue growth in Q3 2025, but faced pressure on net profit margins due to product price reductions and increased management and R&D expenses [2][3]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 11.413 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 623 million yuan, a decrease of 9.19% [2]. - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 3.954 billion yuan, up 14.91% year-on-year, but net profit fell to 200 million yuan, down 27.10% year-on-year [2][3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin in Q3 2025 was 15.64%, down 5.71 percentage points year-on-year and 1.20 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to price reductions and rising raw material costs [3]. - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs in Q3 2025 were 0.66%, 5.34%, 4.20%, and 0.58%, respectively, showing mixed changes compared to the previous year [3]. Business Expansion and Strategy - The company is expanding its automotive seat product line and has seen key customers launch new models, which is expected to drive performance recovery [4]. - The acquisition of a 70% stake in Anhui Ruiqi in April 2025 supports the expansion of the automotive seat business [4]. - The company is also investing in new markets, including a 45 million euro investment in Slovakia and establishing subsidiaries in Germany to enhance its European market presence [4]. New Ventures - The company plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Changzhou focused on the smart robotics sector, with a registered capital of 100 million yuan [5]. - This move aims to leverage existing customer relationships and expand into the robotics market, enhancing long-term sustainable growth [5]. Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 16.22 billion yuan, 19.68 billion yuan, and 23.02 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 980 million yuan, 1.24 billion yuan, and 1.65 billion yuan [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with total revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reaching 11.413 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.83%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.19% to 623 million yuan [5][6] - The company plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Changzhou to enter the robotics sector, focusing on the research, design, manufacturing, and sales of core components related to intelligent robots [8][9] - The company is expanding its product categories and benefiting from the launch of new vehicle models by key clients, which is expected to drive performance recovery [5][6][8] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.954 billion yuan, up 14.91% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 27.10% to 200 million yuan [5][6] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 15.64%, down 5.71 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price reductions and rising raw material costs [6] - The company forecasts revenues of 16.22 billion yuan, 19.68 billion yuan, and 23.02 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 980 million yuan, 1.243 billion yuan, and 1.650 billion yuan for the same years [9][11] Strategic Initiatives - The company has completed the acquisition of 70% of Anhui Ruiqi to expand its automotive seat business and is investing 45 million euros in Slovakia to enhance production capacity [8] - The launch of Tesla's Model Y L and the upcoming production of the Cybercab model are expected to contribute significantly to the company's revenue growth [8] - The establishment of subsidiaries in Germany and Slovakia aims to further penetrate the European market [8]

Industry Information - As of the end of 2024, the installed capacity of new energy storage will account for over 40% of the global total installed capacity, reaching 73.76 million kilowatts or 168 million kilowatt-hours, which is 20 times that of 2020 [9][10] - China's combination driving assistance technology has reached an international leading level, with a market penetration rate of 62.58% for passenger cars equipped with such systems [8] - The global installed capacity of power batteries increased by 35% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with China leading significantly [10][15] - In October, the domestic power battery installation volume reached 84.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.1% [15] - The first "all-in-one battery hospital" has been established in Yibin, focusing on intelligent testing and verification of battery performance [14][17] - The global automotive roll-on/roll-off capacity at Shanghai Port continues to expand, with a significant increase in the volume of electric vehicles being shipped [8] Policy Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set the new energy vehicle credit ratio requirements at 48% for 2026 and 58% for 2027 [25] - The State Council has issued opinions to accelerate the cultivation of new application scenarios for clean energy vehicles in various sectors [27] - The implementation of the 2025 automobile scrapping and updating subsidy policy has been suspended in several provinces, including Hubei and Beijing [28][33] - Inner Mongolia aims for 35% of new cars to be new energy vehicles by 2027 [34] Company Information - CATL has begun mass production of its fifth-generation lithium iron phosphate battery, achieving breakthroughs in energy density and cycle life [12][21] - Harmony Auto has received a strategic investment of $40 million (approximately 284 million RMB) for its overseas new energy vehicle business platform [11] - BYD's total installed capacity of power batteries and energy storage batteries has exceeded 230 GWh as of October [15] - Xpeng Motors' Guangzhou factory has entered the trial production phase, aiming for mass production of flying cars [22]

Group 1: Automotive Market Performance - In October, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.242 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [1] - Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 19.25 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The growth rate of the domestic car market has shown fluctuations, with a significant increase in the first half of the year followed by a slowdown in the latter half, aligning with the initial forecast of a "front low, middle high, and back flat" trend [1] Group 2: Company Deliveries and Milestones - Li Auto announced that the cumulative delivery of its extended-range SUVs has surpassed 1.4 million units [3] - The ZhiJie R7 has achieved cumulative deliveries exceeding 100,000 units [4] - Lantu Automotive's 300,000th vehicle, the Lantu TaiShan, has officially rolled off the production line [5] - XPeng Motors reported that the cumulative delivery of the XPeng P7+ has exceeded 85,000 units [6] Group 3: Corporate Leadership Changes - Li Fenggang has been appointed as the General Manager of Beijing Hyundai [7] - Li Bin's position at NIO Battery Technology has changed from Chairman to Director, with He Xuxiang taking over as the legal representative and General Manager [8] Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Agreements - FAW Audi signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with Zhejiang Deao Automotive Group, focusing on dealer channel development and new media collaboration [9] - GAC Group announced an investment agreement with Honda, increasing the registered capital of GAC Honda from $541 million to $867.22 million [10] Group 5: Sales Performance - Honda's terminal automobile sales in China for October were reported at 59,886 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.6% [11] Group 6: Technological Developments - Tesla announced the launch of the AC external power supply function for the Model Y L, allowing users to power external devices [13] - Subaru plans to reassess its previously announced ¥1.5 trillion (approximately $99.5 billion) electrification investment plan, aiming for annual cost savings of ¥200 billion by 2030 to offset U.S. import tariffs [13]