Wind数据显示，截至2026年1月5日中国证券报记者发稿时，已有超过250只标的入围券商2026年1月"金 股"组合，中际旭创成为最受关注的标的。回顾券商"金股"组合2025年表现，Wind收录的34只券商金股 指数在2025年均实现正收益，表现最强的国元证券金股指数全年累计收益超过100%。 1月5日，A股三大股指集体上涨，迎来2026年开门红。展望后市走势，业内人士认为，1月A股继续演绎 春季行情的概率较高，且因1月为上市公司年报业绩预告密集披露期，因此市场对基本面验证的关注度 将显著提升，配置上应适当规避缺乏业绩兑现能力的纯主题性质个股。 回顾券商"金股"组合2025年整体表现，Wind数据收录的34只券商金股指数在当年均实现正收益，但收 益率分化十分明显。 在中国银河看来，随着互联网巨头对于AI及大模型的布局逐步深入，以GPU服务器引领智算底座或将 成为未来的主要发展方向之一。硅光光模块渗透率提升、数据中心内部连接方案进步以及1.6T光模块需 求量提升，预计将对中际旭创业绩进一步产生积极影响。公司作为光模块行业龙头企业，在行业高成长 性已显现的基础上有望持续受益。 根据Wind数据，截至2026年1 ...

张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日早参 2025 年 12 月 30 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 仇文竹 债券策略研究组长 座机：13910895671 邮箱：qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：12 月海外增长数据整体超预期 12 月美联储如期降息并启动扩表、联储主席人选博弈加剧；日央行加息、日 本释放干预日元信号；欧央行按兵不动；俄乌和平进程进入关键期；全球多 数市场在流动性宽松预期推动下整体上涨。增长数据方面，12 月美欧服务业 PMI 有所回升，美欧制造业延续走弱态势，日本制造业低位回升；通胀方 面，美国 11 月 CPI 降温超预期，主要受政府关门影响；市场方面，经济数据 整体好于预期，10 年期美债收益率上行，美国三大股指集体上涨，美元走 弱，欧元升值、日元贬值，大宗商品涨跌不一，布伦特原油下跌，黄金、 LME 铜大幅走高。 风险提示：联储独立性削弱，地缘政治不确定性。 研报发布日期：2025-12-29 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 S ...

Group 1 - The communication sector experienced a significant increase in valuation, with the communication index rising by 73.0% in 2025, ranking second among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan classification [1][15][24] - The growth in the communication industry is primarily driven by AI computing power, leading to accelerated technological iterations and scale growth across the entire AI computing power supply chain [1][15] - The report emphasizes the focus on the supply-demand imbalance in AI computing power and the evolution of new technologies, particularly the entry of low-orbit satellites into a prosperous cycle [1][2] Group 2 - AI computing power is entering a new stage, with structural changes expected in 2026, including a shift in demand from training to inference computing power [2][26] - The capital expenditure (Capex) investment structure is stabilizing among leading cloud providers, with second-tier cloud providers beginning to join the market [2][35] - The architecture of computing power networks is evolving, with scale-up and scale-across strategies contributing to increased network demand [2][42] Group 3 - The optical interconnection sector is facing supply-demand imbalances, particularly in optical modules, optical chips, and Faraday rotators, with a focus on technological trends such as 1.6T, silicon photonics, OCS, and CPO [3][51][54] - The liquid cooling market is at a historic turning point, with significant demand in North America, Southeast Asia, and China, particularly driven by the North American computing power market [3][11] - The IDC industry is expected to maintain an expansion trend driven by AI development, with an increase in AIDC penetration rates anticipated for 2026 [4][11] Group 4 - The report highlights the importance of breakthroughs in rocket capacity as a key variable for the commercial aerospace industry in China, with low-orbit satellite internet expected to enter an accelerated prosperity phase [1][11][24] - The commercial aerospace industry is a key focus area supported by national policies, with significant growth potential anticipated as satellite and computing power converge for space data processing [11][24][25] - The report suggests monitoring the success rates of various rocket models and their capacity planning as the industry matures [11][24]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 今天A股高开高走，截至收盘，上证指数涨0.54%，深证成指涨1.39%，创业板指涨2.6%，北证50涨1.27%。全市场成交额2.05万亿元，较上日 成交额放量3126亿元。 盘面上， CPO、元件、商业航天板块涨幅居前，"易中天"大爆发，胜宏科技、工业富联亦表现活跃。煤炭板块陷入调整。 01 CPO领涨两市 "易中天"大爆发 大批量量产的公司有望享受行业加速期的高毛利，以及受益于行业份额的巩固和聚拢。 02 商业航天表现活跃 商业航天板块表现活跃，飞沃科技、银邦股份、红相股份20CM涨停，顺灏股份、天箭科技等涨停封板。 CPO板块领涨两市，"易中天"包揽今天A股成交榜前三席，中际旭创、新易盛成交额破200亿，千亿天孚通信近十个交易日暴涨超60%， 东田微、 致尚科技20CM涨停。有用户调侃道， 天空才是"易中天"的极限！ 消息面上，微软、英伟达和Anthropic宣布，Anthropic将斥资300亿美元在微软Azure云平台上扩展其Claude AI模型，而这些算力将由英伟达提供 支持。 从需求端来看，中信建投认为，随着GPU和ASIC的快速升级迭代，算力性能持续提升 ...

责任编辑：卢昱君 国盛证券指出，在AI算力需求驱动下，全球光模块产业正加速向800G/1.6T升级。光隔离器作为光模块 中保护激光器的关键无源组件，正因其上游核心材料法拉第旋光片的全球性供应短缺，成为制约光模块 产能扩张的"卡脖子"环节。据了解，剑桥科技的核心业务聚焦于光模块的研发、生产与销售，其在 800G、1.6T 等高端光模块领域技术领先。在供应链层面，公司完成了硅光芯片、隔离器等关键物料的 多源认证，保障了物料齐套率与出货达成率均达到100%。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 剑桥科技（06166）盘中涨超6%，截至发稿，股价上涨4.64%，现报85.65港元，成交额1.35亿港元。 剑桥科技（06166）盘中涨超6%，截至发稿，股价上涨4.64%，现报85.65港元，成交额1.35亿港元。 国盛证券指出，在AI算力需求驱动下，全球光模块产业正加速向800G/1.6T升级。光隔离器作为光模块 中保护激光器的关键无源组件，正因其上游核心材料法拉第旋光片的全球性供应短缺，成为制约光模块 产能扩张的"卡脖子" ...

西部证券表示，2025年以来，受益于AI算力需求持续增长，光模块行业维持高景气。一方面，硅光光 模块凭借高集成度、低能耗、低成本的优点，逐渐受到终端客户认可，另一方面，在EML方案原材料 短缺下，硅光方案成为重点产能供给补充。该机构续指，技术升级上，率先进入硅光光模块大批量量产 的公司有望享受行业加速期的高毛利，以及受益于行业份额的巩固和聚拢。 智通财经APP获悉，剑桥科技(06166)涨超6%，截至发稿，涨5.68%，报86.5港元，成交额1.17亿港元。 消息面上，国盛证券指出，在AI算力需求驱动下，全球光模块产业正加速向800G/1.6T升级。光隔离器 作为光模块中保护激光器的关键无源组件，正因其上游核心材料法拉第旋光片的全球性供应短缺，成为 制约光模块产能扩张的"卡脖子"环节。据了解，剑桥科技的核心业务聚焦于光模块的研发、生产与销 售，其在 800G、1.6T 等高端光模块领域技术领先。在供应链层面，公司完成了硅光芯片、隔离器等关 键物料的多源认证，保障了物料齐套率与出货达成率均达到100%。 ...

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes that companies that are the first to enter mass production of silicon photonic modules are likely to enjoy high margins during the industry's acceleration phase and benefit from market share consolidation [1][8] - Leading silicon photonic module manufacturers are expected to receive priority supply chain support, with key materials such as silicon photonic chips and CW light sources likely to see accelerated domestic substitution and market share breakthroughs [1][8] Industry Overview - Since 2025, the optical module industry has maintained high prosperity due to the continuous growth in AI computing demand. Silicon photonic modules are gaining recognition from end customers due to their high integration, low energy consumption, and low cost. Additionally, silicon photonic solutions are becoming a key supplement to capacity supply amid shortages of EML raw materials [5] - Silicon photonic technology is currently in the phase of integration and application, with future trends pointing towards higher speeds, greater integration, advanced packaging, and broader application fields [5] Physical Structure Analysis - Key components of silicon photonic modules include: 1. Lasers: Responsible for converting electrical signals into optical signals, with external CW light sources being the mainstream solution. Heterogeneous bonding technology is expected to become the mainstream solution for on-chip lasers in the future. 2. Modulators: Currently dominated by silicon-based substrates, with MZM being the mainstream solution. Thin-film lithium niobate modulators are expected to see large-scale application in the 3.2T era. 3. Detectors: Silicon-based germanium detectors are the mainstream solution. 4. Other passive devices: Such as (de)multiplexers, resonators, etc. 5. Electrical chips: Such as DSP, TIA, Driver, etc. [6] Industry Chain Analysis - The silicon photonic module industry chain can be divided into several segments: 1. Upstream: Key materials, including silicon photonic chips, which are primarily designed by North American manufacturers. The wafer foundry segment has high process barriers, with capacity concentrated in Tower Semi, GF, and TSMC. 2. CW Light Sources: Mainly composed of InP, with major suppliers including Sumitomo Electric and AXT. Domestic suppliers include Yuanjie Technology and Shijia Photonics. 3. DSP: Mainly designed by Broadcom and Marvell, with TSMC responsible for foundry. 4. Midstream: Optical module packaging, with representative companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Technology. 5. Downstream: System integrators or end customers [7] Investment Recommendations - Companies that lead in the mass production of silicon photonic modules are expected to enjoy high margins and benefit from market share consolidation during the industry's acceleration phase. Key areas of focus include: 1. Silicon photonic chip design: Attention should be paid to the layout and further participation of optical module manufacturers in the silicon photonic chip design segment, with recommendations to focus on Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Technology. 2. Substrates and epitaxy: Focus on heterogeneous integration and InP material suppliers, recommending Sumitomo Electric and AXT. 3. Silicon photonic wafer foundry: Monitor capacity scale and expansion, as well as the potential for domestic substitution, recommending Tower Semi, GlobalFoundries, TSMC, and SMIC. 4. CW Light Sources: Look for investment opportunities amid supply-demand mismatches and capacity expansion, recommending Yuanjie Technology and Shijia Photonics. 5. Silicon photonic modules: Focus on companies that achieve early scale and technological leadership, which may significantly enhance profitability, recommending Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, Cambridge Technology, Tianfu Communication, and Guangxun Technology [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" and has been maintained from the previous rating [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the silicon photonics module industry is experiencing high growth driven by increasing AI computing power demands and the advantages of silicon photonics technology, such as high integration, low energy consumption, and cost-effectiveness [7][10]. - The report identifies a shift in the industry towards silicon photonics as a key supply supplement due to shortages in EML raw materials, indicating a growing acceptance of silicon photonics solutions among end customers [27][28]. Summary by Sections Silicon Photonics Technology Overview, Industry Rhythm, and Development Trends - Silicon photonics technology utilizes silicon as the optical medium and is compatible with CMOS processes to manufacture photonic and optoelectronic devices, enabling applications in optical communication and computing [7][16]. - The current stage of silicon photonics technology is focused on integration and application, with future trends pointing towards higher speeds, greater integration, advanced packaging, and broader application fields [29]. Breakdown of Silicon Photonics Principles and Structural Components - Key components include: 1. Lasers: External CW lasers are the mainstream solution, with heterogeneous bonding technology expected to become prevalent for on-chip lasers [8]. 2. Modulators: Silicon-based substrates are predominant, with MZM being the mainstream solution [8]. 3. Detectors: Silicon-germanium detectors are the mainstream solution [8]. 4. Other passive devices include multiplexers and resonators [8]. Analysis of the Silicon Photonics Module Industry Chain - The industry chain is divided into three segments: 1. Upstream: Core materials, including silicon photonic chips, with design led by North American firms and manufacturing concentrated among a few foundries [9]. 2. Midstream: Module packaging, with leading companies closely collaborating with clients and maintaining high market shares [9]. 3. Downstream: System integrators or end customers [9]. Investment Recommendations - Companies that lead in the mass production of silicon photonics modules are expected to enjoy high margins and benefit from market share consolidation [10]. - Key areas of focus include: 1. Silicon photonic chip design: Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are recommended for their strategic positioning [10]. 2. Substrate and epitaxy: Companies like Sumitomo Electric and AXT are highlighted for their roles in material supply [10]. 3. Silicon photonic wafer foundries: Tower Semiconductor, GlobalFoundries, TSMC, and SMIC are noted for their capacity and expansion potential [10]. 4. CW light sources: Companies like Yuanjie Technology and Shijia Photonics are recommended due to supply-demand mismatches [10]. 5. Silicon photonic modules: Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Cambridge Technology, Tianfu Communication, and Guangxun Technology are highlighted for their technological leadership [10].

Core Insights - Silicon photonics is emerging as a key technology in optical communication, with major tech companies like Nvidia, Intel, and Cisco pushing its development [2][3]. - The integration of silicon-based optical devices is expected to revolutionize data transmission, particularly in high-bandwidth applications driven by AI [17][19]. Overview of Silicon Photonics - Silicon photonics combines silicon semiconductor technology with optical communication, enabling the manufacturing of integrated optical devices on silicon wafers [19]. - The technology aims to replace traditional electrical communication methods with optical channels to enhance speed and reduce energy consumption [10][12]. Technical Comparison - Traditional optical modules consist of multiple discrete components, while silicon photonic modules integrate these components into a single chip, reducing size by approximately 30% [66]. - Silicon photonic modules utilize CMOS manufacturing processes, which are more cost-effective compared to traditional III-V semiconductor materials [68]. Advantages of Silicon Photonics - High integration density allows for more compact designs, which is beneficial for AI computing clusters that require high port density [67]. - Cost advantages arise from using silicon substrates, which are significantly cheaper than InP substrates, leading to lower overall production costs [68]. - Power consumption is reduced by about 40%, with 800G modules consuming around 14W compared to over 18W for traditional modules [69]. Market Potential - The silicon photonics market is projected to exceed $6 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% [79]. - By 2030, the global silicon photonics market is expected to reach $7.86 billion, with a CAGR of 25.7% [79]. Applications - The primary application of silicon photonics is in optical communication, particularly in high-speed data transmission for AI-driven data centers [75][76]. - Other notable applications include solid-state LiDAR for autonomous driving, optical computing for AI algorithms, and biosensing technologies for medical diagnostics [80][84][87]. Industry Dynamics - Major tech companies are heavily investing in silicon photonics, leading to rapid advancements and increased competition in the sector [91]. - While the industry is growing, challenges such as standardization and integration of packaging processes remain [73].

Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching approximately 25.005 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.43%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at about 7.132 billion yuan, up 90.05% [1] - The company is a leader in the 1.6T and silicon photonics module sectors, with increasing orders from key clients and a strong market position [2] - The demand for optical modules is rapidly growing, driven by the AI wave, with major overseas clients increasing their capital expenditure for AI data center construction [3] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a single-quarter revenue of 10.216 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.83%, with a gross margin of 43% [1] - The net profit for Q3 was 3.327 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.38%, attributed to revenue and margin improvements [1] - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders for the same quarter was 3.137 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 124.98% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.04% [1] Market Position and Trends - The company is well-prepared for the upcoming deployment of 1.6T technology, with expectations of sustained growth in shipments over the next few quarters [2] - The optical module industry is experiencing a surge in demand, with major clients like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft significantly increasing their capital expenditure for 2025 [3] - The anticipated capital expenditures for 2025 include approximately 125 billion USD from Amazon, 91-93 billion USD from Google, and 70-72 billion USD from Meta, indicating a robust market outlook [3] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 39.64 billion yuan, 68.5 billion yuan, and 85.44 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 11.19 billion yuan, 19.23 billion yuan, and 23.97 billion yuan [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the closing price on November 3 is projected to be 48, 28, and 22 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "recommended" rating [4]