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供需矛盾尚不突出,短多参与为主
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 04:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For silicon manganese, the supply - demand contradiction is yet to accumulate, the cost side strongly supports the price, but new warehouse receipts in the short term will suppress the upward price limit. It is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5750, 6000] [4][5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the warehouse receipts are on a high - level downward trend but still high in absolute value, suppressing the upward price limit. It is expected to move within a range following coal prices in the short term, and it is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5550, 5700] [49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The weekly output has returned to the pre - parade level, and the operating rate has increased by 0.93%. Northern production areas are relatively stable, while some factories in southern Guangxi and Guizhou have resumed production. Yunnan's operating rate has remained at around 95% for three consecutive weeks, and the daily output is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. As of September 12, the national silicon manganese output was 214,130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,295 tons; the operating rate was 47.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.93% [4][8] - Demand: The molten iron output has returned to the pre - parade level, but the rebar output has decreased week - on - week, dragging down the demand for silicon manganese. As of September 12, the weekly demand for silicon manganese was 122,314 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,354 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price of a landmark steel mill is 5,800 yuan/ton [4][13] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 166,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,300 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 61,400, a decrease of 1,400 from last Friday. As of September 12, the total valid forecasts are 2,994, an increase of 1,995 from the previous day. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 322,200 tons, and the inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase [4] Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices at ports have rebounded slightly this week. The total shipment volume of the three major countries is 949,300 tons, basically the same as the previous period. The arrival volume is 359,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 231,900 tons, with the reduction mainly from South Africa. The electricity price in Ningxia has increased by 0.02 yuan/kWh, and the current comprehensive electricity price of manufacturers is 0.4 yuan/kWh, while the electricity prices in other production areas remain stable [4] Market Price - As of September 12, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it is 5,600 (+ 50) yuan/ton; in Guangxi, it is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 5,850 (+ 100) yuan/ton [7] River Steel Silicon Manganese Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon manganese tendering by River Steel is 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 17,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to August and 6,500 tons compared to the same period last year [16] Silicon Iron Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: This week, the national output and operating rate of silicon iron have decreased week - on - week. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have stable operations, while Shaanxi has slightly reduced production. As of September 12, the weekly output of silicon iron is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons; the operating rate is 34.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [49][54] - Demand: This week, the demand for silicon iron converted from the five major steel products is 19,737 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 339 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by a landmark steel mill is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity has increased by 317 tons compared to August. In terms of non - steel demand, the magnesium ingot output in August is basically the same as that in July, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [49] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 69,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 16,500, a decrease of 1,800 from last Friday. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 85,300 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from last Friday [49] Cost and Profit - Recently, the semi - coke market has been stable. The current small - material quotation in Fugu area is 640 - 690 yuan/ton. The electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai have both increased. In the short term, the cost side of silicon iron has strong support [49] Market Price - The spot prices in the main production areas have increased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [52] River Steel Silicon Iron Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by River Steel is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 3,151 tons, an increase of 317 tons compared to August and 650 tons compared to the same period last year [60]
西部黄金(601069):深度报告:天山金翼淬锰铍,乘风美盛展云霓
Minsheng Securities· 2025-09-04 11:39
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned for significant growth with the completion of the acquisition of Xinjiang Meisheng, which is expected to enhance its gold and copper production capabilities [2]. - The anticipated restart of interest rate cuts in the U.S. is expected to drive gold prices higher, benefiting the company's revenue [2]. - The company is projected to turn profitable in 2024 and enter a high growth phase in 2025, with substantial increases in revenue and net profit forecasted for the coming years [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, Western Gold, is a major player in the gold mining sector in Xinjiang, China, and has expanded into manganese and beryllium through acquisitions [1][10]. - The company has a total gold resource of 32.1 tons and a manganese resource of 1,136 tons, with ongoing projects aimed at increasing production capacity [1][22]. 2. Core Assets - The company has significant assets in Xinjiang, including the Katerba Asu gold-copper mine, which has a gold resource of 78.73 tons and is expected to start production in late 2025 [2][52]. - The company’s gold production is expected to increase significantly, with plans to produce 1.79 tons in 2025 [23]. 3. Industry Outlook - The report highlights a favorable outlook for gold prices due to anticipated monetary easing and increased demand from central banks [2][3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from these trends, with a diversified portfolio that includes gold, manganese, and beryllium [1][2]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 9.04 billion yuan in 2025 to 14.58 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit expected to increase from 469 million yuan to 2.44 billion yuan in the same period [3][4]. - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease significantly from 53 in 2025 to 10 in 2027, indicating strong earnings growth potential [3][4].
西部黄金:8月8日召开董事会会议
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-08 11:05
Group 1 - The company, Western Gold (SH 601069), announced the convening of its fifth board meeting on August 8, 2025, to discuss the election of the chairman [2] - For the fiscal year 2024, the revenue composition of Western Gold is as follows: gold accounts for 78.64%, manganese industry for 17.8%, beryllium industry for 2.61%, other businesses for 0.53%, and miscellaneous for 0.41% [2]
在贵州发现巨大宝藏,价值高达万亿!多国排队求合作
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 06:02
Core Insights - The rise of Qian Dong Manganese Mine in Guizhou, China, is significantly reshaping the global manganese industry, driven by technological innovation, environmental protection, and strategic resource management [1][9]. Exploration and Discovery - The discovery of a unique manganese ore in 2017 in Songtao, Guizhou, challenged traditional geological theories and revealed a massive mineral deposit, leading to a total manganese reserve of 750 million tons, accounting for one-third of the world's super-large manganese reserves [3][5]. - The exploration efforts have positioned China as a dominant player in the global manganese market, with four of the top ten manganese mines located in the country [3][5]. Industrial Importance - Manganese is essential in steel production, with a requirement of 6-9 kg of manganese per ton of steel, and its importance is increasing in the battery industry, particularly for electric vehicles [5][6]. - The global demand for manganese in battery production is expected to surge by 300% by 2030, highlighting the critical role of manganese in the transition to renewable energy [5][6]. Supply Chain Dynamics - China's manganese self-sufficiency rate is projected to rise from 31% to 85% due to the new discoveries, significantly impacting global manganese pricing and supply dynamics [5][6]. - The average grade of the newly discovered manganese ore is 25.75%, surpassing the national average of 20%, which enhances China's competitive position in the global market [5][6]. Technological Advancements - The development of selective leaching technology has enabled the conversion of manganese carbonate into battery-grade manganese sulfate with a purity of 99.9%, reducing costs and environmental impact [6][9]. - Innovations in mining and processing techniques, such as automated sorting and intelligent filling methods, have improved ore purity and recovery rates, maximizing the value extracted from each ton of manganese [9]. Environmental Considerations - The establishment of a "mining ecological bank" in Tongren mandates environmental restoration efforts alongside mining activities, aiming to prevent past pollution issues [8][9]. - Successful remediation projects have restored local ecosystems, demonstrating a commitment to sustainable mining practices and garnering international recognition [8][9]. Global Reactions - In response to China's advancements, countries like Australia and Japan are seeking partnerships and technological exchanges to secure their positions in the manganese supply chain [6][8]. - The international community is taking notice of China's sustainable practices, with the United Nations recognizing Tongren as a benchmark for sustainable development [8][9].
整理:每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递(6月3日)
news flash· 2025-06-03 07:29
Energy - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has revised its August Murban crude oil export forecast down from 1.77 million barrels per day to 1.705 million barrels per day [2] - The U.S. has proposed allowing Iran to conduct low-level uranium enrichment activities, while Iranian officials describe the U.S. nuclear agreement proposal as "incoherent and disconnected" [2] - The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating India's Adani Group for allegedly importing Iranian liquefied petroleum gas, which the group denies [3] Metals and Mining - Goldman Sachs has raised its aluminum price forecast for the second half of 2025 to $2,280 per ton [3] - Gold prices are nearing historical highs, with experts suggesting a significant possibility of surpassing $3,500 per ounce [3] Trade and Agriculture - Vietnamese companies are set to sign a memorandum of understanding to purchase $2 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products [3] - EU trade officials are scheduled to meet, with the EU reiterating warnings regarding retaliatory tariffs [3] - The India-EU free trade agreement is progressing, with nearly half of the topics reaching consensus, and an agreement expected within the year [3]
整理:昨日今晨重要新闻汇总(6月3日)
news flash· 2025-06-02 22:36
Domestic News - The box office for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday is projected to reach 4.59 billion, representing a 20% increase [1] - The total inter-regional movement of people during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday is expected to reach 657 million [1] - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, maintains the GDP growth forecast for the year at 2% to 3% [1] International News - EU officials reiterated warnings against tariffs as US and EU trade officials are set to meet [2] - Gabon announced plans to halt the export of manganese ore starting in 2029 [2] - The Indian government will offer a 15% tariff reduction for eligible companies importing electric vehicles [2] - US manufacturing activity shrank for the fourth consecutive month in May, highlighting the impact of tariffs [2] - The US Senate is reviewing a tax proposal that includes the "Section 899 tax clause" [2] - Gold and silver prices surged significantly, with gold rising nearly $100 and silver increasing over 5%, reaching the highest levels since October of the previous year [2] - US-Iran negotiations show a reversal in US stance, allowing low-level uranium enrichment, while Iran describes the proposal as incoherent [2] - The second round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine concluded without a ceasefire agreement, although both sides agreed to exchange some prisoners [2] - The EU is drafting the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, primarily targeting its energy revenue [2] Federal Reserve - The GDPNow model forecasts a 4.6% growth rate for the US Q2 GDP, up from a previous estimate of 3.8% [3] - Current inflation data may not fully reflect the impact of tariffs, with interest rates expected to decrease significantly within 15 months [3] - The Federal Reserve is prepared to remain patient and respond as necessary [3]
日度策略参考-20250519
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 08:19
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].
一文了解2025年中国锰行业发展现状及未来前景趋势预测(智研咨询发布)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-14 04:25
Industry Overview - Manganese is a crucial strategic mineral resource, with China categorizing it as a scarce mineral. The country has a high dependence on imports, with 80%-90% of its manganese supply sourced from abroad, making it the largest manganese importer globally [2][3] - China's manganese ore production has been declining due to low ore grades, high impurities, and stringent mining regulations. The import volume and net import volume have consistently remained above 27 million tons, with projections for 2024 showing a decrease to approximately 29.29 million tons and 29.02 million tons, representing year-on-year declines of 6.28% and 7.14% respectively [2][3] Industry Chain - The manganese industry chain consists of three segments: upstream (exploration and mining), midstream (smelting and processing), and downstream (application in various industries). Key players in the upstream include companies like Western Gold, WISCO, and Southern Manganese, while midstream players include Tianyuan Manganese and Southern Manganese [4] - The downstream applications of manganese products span across steel, batteries, chemicals, construction, real estate, transportation, new energy vehicles, aerospace, and pharmaceuticals [4] Global Manganese Resources - Global manganese metal reserves are approximately 1.5 billion tons, with South Africa, Australia, China, and Brazil accounting for over 85% of total reserves. South Africa holds the largest share at around 32%, while China ranks third with about 15% [5] - High-grade manganese resources, with manganese content above 35%, are primarily found in South Africa, Gabon, Australia, and Brazil, while China mainly has low-grade resources with manganese content generally below 30% [5] Domestic Manganese Resources - China's manganese ore resources are predominantly composed of carbonate manganese ore, which constitutes about 55.8% of the total reserves. The distribution of manganese resources is uneven, with the highest concentration in Guangxi, accounting for 43.24% of the national reserves, followed by Guizhou at 17.83% [9] Market Report - The report titled "China Manganese Industry Market Operation Status and Future Strategic Analysis" provides a comprehensive analysis of the manganese industry's development environment, operational status, import and export dynamics, and competitive landscape, projecting trends for 2025 [11][13]