Summary of Conference Call on Precision Reducers in Humanoid Robots Industry Overview - The high-end precision reducer market is dominated by foreign companies, while domestic firms are accelerating the process of domestic substitution, although a technological gap still exists [1][3] - The potential demand for humanoid robots is significant, and companies with production capacity advantages will gain a first-mover advantage, but caution is advised to avoid overcapacity [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Core Technology Barriers**: Precision reducers require high precision, long lifespan, and low backlash. Domestic companies face challenges in micro-level processing and equipment technology, which are essential for achieving high precision [2][5] - **Market Competition**: The high-end market is primarily monopolized by foreign companies, but domestic firms are making strides in moving from low to mid-range markets. The gap with international leaders is expected to narrow as domestic technology improves [3][5] - **Capacity Impact**: Companies with sufficient capacity that can quickly respond to market demands will have a competitive edge. Heavy asset investments without secured orders can adversely affect future development [4][5] - **Characteristics of Quality Enterprises**: Quality companies should have core technology barriers, be integrated into mainstream supply chains, and possess strong capacity release capabilities. They may also explore derivative markets like linear actuators [5][6] Important but Overlooked Content - **Types of Precision Reducers**: The main types include harmonic reducers, RV reducers, cycloidal pinwheel reducers, and precision planetary reducers, each with distinct characteristics and applications [11][29] - **Market Dynamics**: The global harmonic reducer market is led by Japan's Harmonic Drive, with a market share exceeding 50%. Domestic companies are narrowing the gap but still face challenges in product consistency and stability [20][21] - **Future Demand**: If humanoid robots are successfully commercialized, the demand for precision planetary and harmonic reducers will significantly increase, driven by their specific advantages in applications requiring high precision and lightweight designs [16][21] - **Technological Trends**: The industry is exploring lightweight materials like PEEK to reduce weight, although these materials may compromise lifespan and impact resistance. Balancing these factors will be crucial for future applications [37][36] Company Insights - **BlueDai Technology**: Holds advantages in high-precision gear and shaft manufacturing, with sufficient capacity and a strong production base [30] - **FuLin Precision**: Collaborates with universities for harmonic reducer development and has established partnerships with major robot clients [31] - **Zhongda Lide**: Focuses on integrated products for robots and has achieved large-scale shipments of planetary reducers [32][33] - **Shuanghuan Transmission**: A leading domestic RV reducer manufacturer with a significant market share and strong technological foundation [34][27] - **Zhongchen Technology**: Engaged in servo systems and planetary reducers, with a strong technical background supporting its operations [35] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the precision reducer industry in humanoid robots, highlighting market dynamics, technological challenges, and company strategies.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2][7]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from product definition to functional realization and commercialization, focusing on the optimization and coupling of hardware and software [3][4]. - Cycloidal reducers are expected to become a new iteration direction for humanoid robots, offering higher precision and load capacity compared to planetary and harmonic reducers [4][5]. - The market for new cycloidal reducers in humanoid robots is projected to exceed 14 billion RMB by 2030, driven by advancements in structure, materials, and components [5]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The humanoid robot sector has completed the basic functionality phase and is now focusing on software and hardware upgrades [3]. - The report highlights the need for improvements in load capacity, lightweight design, heat dissipation, energy efficiency, stability, flexibility, and cost reduction in hardware [4]. Reducer Technology - Cycloidal reducers are characterized by high reduction ratios, efficiency, precision, and load capacity, making them suitable for humanoid robot joints [4][5]. - The report discusses the advantages and disadvantages of various reducer types, including harmonic, planetary, RV, and cycloidal reducers, emphasizing the unique benefits of cycloidal reducers in high-load applications [22][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with capabilities in precision reducers and gear processing, such as Shuanghuan Transmission, Haoneng Co., Fuda Co., Jingzhuan Technology, and Landai Technology, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the growth in the humanoid robot market [6][7].

Core Insights - The precision reducer market is experiencing rapid growth driven by downstream industries, with high technical barriers to entry [1][2] - Domestic manufacturers are expected to accelerate the introduction of core customers through years of industry and technological accumulation, achieving domestic substitution [1][2] Group 1: Precision Reducers Overview - Precision reducers are essential transmission components that match speed and torque, including various types such as harmonic reducers, RV reducers, and precision planetary reducers [1] - Harmonic reducers are advantageous in applications requiring high precision and compact size, particularly in robotic arms and joints [1] - RV reducers offer a wide transmission ratio and high rigidity, making them suitable for heavy-load applications in robotic arms and bases [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese precision reducer market is projected to reach 9.1 billion yuan in 2024, with domestic companies capturing 70% of the sales volume but only 57% of the revenue [2] - The market is characterized by high-end products being dominated by foreign brands, while domestic products are primarily used in lower-end applications [2] Group 3: Key Application Areas - Industrial robots represent the largest downstream application for precision reducers, with an estimated shipment of 1.097 million units in 2024 [3] - The machine tool sector is crucial for precision reducers, with a projected demand of 598,000 units in 2024, highlighting the need for domestic component localization [3] - Humanoid robots present a significant growth opportunity, with configurations requiring multiple precision reducers, indicating high value per unit [3] Group 4: Domestic Manufacturer Categories - The first category includes traditional precision reducer manufacturers like Grede Harmonic and Huandong Technology, which have established experience and stable product systems [4] - The second category consists of companies from related industries such as automotive parts and motors, which are extending their capabilities into the reducer market [4] - The third category includes manufacturers with processing capabilities transitioning into reducer production, leveraging existing expertise in precision machining [5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the precision reducer industry, highlighting its broad application space and high technical barriers, driven by downstream industries for rapid market growth [10][12]. Core Insights - The precision reducer market is experiencing robust growth, with a projected market size of 9.1 billion yuan in 2024, driven by industrial robots, machine tools, and humanoid robots [36][40]. - Domestic manufacturers are expected to accelerate core customer integration and achieve domestic substitution through years of industry and technology accumulation [10][12]. - The report identifies three main categories of domestic reducer manufacturers: traditional precision reducer manufacturers, upstream and downstream industry players, and manufacturing companies transitioning to reducer production [4][11]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Precision Reducers - Precision reducers serve as core transmission components, connecting power sources and actuators, with various types including harmonic, RV, and planetary reducers [16][19]. Section 2: Industry Opportunities - The precision reducer market is set for steady growth, with the industrial robot sector being the largest downstream application, accounting for 36% of the market in 2024 [37][39]. - The machine tool sector follows, representing 23% of the market, while humanoid robots are emerging as a potential growth area [36][40]. Section 3: Domestic Manufacturer Landscape - Traditional precision reducer manufacturers like Grede Harmonic and Ring Dynamics have established a strong presence in the industrial robot sector [4][11]. - Companies from the automotive parts and related industries are extending their reach into the reducer market, leveraging their existing capabilities [4][11]. - Manufacturers with OEM capabilities are transitioning to reducer production, capitalizing on market demand [4][11]. Section 4: Key Company Profit Forecasts and Valuation - Grede Harmonic is projected to have an EPS of 0.47 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 252.81, indicating strong growth potential [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Xianglou New Materials, with projected net profits of 243 million, 295 million, and 351 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 31, 25, and 21 times [4][5]. Core Insights - Precision reducers are critical components in humanoid robots, converting high-speed, low-torque output from servo motors into low-speed, high-torque power needed for robotic joints [1][10]. - Harmonic reducers are primarily used, supported by precision planetary reducers, due to their compact size, high torque density, and ability to operate in confined spaces [1][14]. - The demand for special steel is expected to rise significantly with the mass production of humanoid robots, particularly from Tesla's plans to produce thousands of units by 2025 and over 500,000 by 2027 [3][71]. Summary by Sections 1. Harmonic Reducers as Preferred Solutions - Precision reducers are essential for robots, providing reliable and stable performance in high-end applications [10][11]. - The report highlights the advantages of harmonic reducers, including their high reduction ratio and compact design, making them suitable for lightweight humanoid robots [24][21]. 2. Reducer Materials: Process Optimization is Timely - Harmonic reducers require high-performance materials due to their operational demands, with common materials including high-strength alloy steels [26][32]. - The report discusses the potential of precision stamping technology to reduce costs and improve efficiency in producing flexible wheels for harmonic reducers [2][50]. - Ductile iron is proposed as a lightweight alternative for rigid wheels, offering better wear resistance and self-lubricating properties compared to traditional alloy steels [59][64]. 3. Upcoming Demand for Special Steel - The report anticipates a surge in demand for special steel materials driven by the upcoming mass production of humanoid robots, with significant market size projections for harmonic reducer steel materials [3][71]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on Xianglou New Materials for precision stamping steel and Hengong Precision for ductile iron applications [3][4]. 4. Key Company Profit Forecasts, Valuation, and Ratings - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, emphasizing the growth potential in the precision steel and ductile iron sectors [4].

Core Insights - DeXin Technology reported a revenue of 364 million RMB and a net loss of 151 million RMB for the year 2024, while proposing a cash dividend of 0.56 RMB per 10 shares, totaling 13.1 million RMB [1] - The company focuses on precision manufacturing and transportation services, including lithium battery equipment, reducers, and various transportation services [1] Precision Manufacturing Business - DeXin Technology's core asset, DeHong Precision, has over 20 years of experience in the lithium battery precision mold sector, becoming a leading enterprise in the domestic market [2] - The company has developed innovative products such as L-shaped and rounded corner battery cutting molds, filling several industry gaps [2] - A nationwide after-sales network has been established to enhance service competitiveness, providing 24-hour on-site support to reduce customer downtime [2] Acquisition and Expansion - In September 2024, the company acquired 51% of Anhui Hamps, becoming its controlling shareholder and entering the precision automation field [3] - Anhui Hamps specializes in high-precision reducers and motors, leveraging advanced equipment and experienced technicians to meet diverse customer needs [3] Financial Performance - The precision manufacturing segment maintained a high gross margin of 31.93%, with overseas business generating revenue of 23.34 million RMB [4] - The company's losses were primarily due to asset impairment losses; excluding this, the company remained profitable [4] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 97.68 million RMB, an increase of 84.88% year-on-year, with a significant reduction in net loss by over 90% compared to the previous year [4]

Group 1: Telecom Industry - In 2024, telecom business volume is expected to grow by 10%, exceeding the national service industry production index by 4.8 percentage points, positively contributing to service industry growth [1] - Emerging businesses such as cloud computing, big data, and mobile IoT generated revenue of 434.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, accounting for 25% of total telecom business revenue, driving a 2.5 percentage point increase in telecom business revenue [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market has experienced an extended bull market, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields declining by nearly 100 basis points, a rare historical fluctuation [2] - Since January, the central bank has suspended net purchases of government bonds, leading to significant tightening of the funding environment and a shift in market expectations regarding funding and fundamentals [2] - Changes in central bank policies have led to differing views on macroeconomic prospects, particularly regarding funding, institutional behavior, and macro fundamentals [2] Group 3: Deep Sea Technology - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the promotion of deep-sea technology and other emerging industries, indicating the government's focus on this field [3] - Deep-sea technology, which includes deep-sea equipment, exploration, resource development, and networking, is expected to have a market potential of trillions of yuan [3] - The integration of military and civilian sectors is expected to drive technological innovation and industrialization, facilitating the sharing of research outcomes and enhancing new productivity and combat capabilities [3] Group 4: Gold Market - Weak economic data from the U.S., such as lower-than-expected manufacturing PMI and CPI growth, has heightened concerns about a U.S. economic recession, benefiting gold prices [4] - Central banks globally have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, significantly exceeding the average levels from 2010 to 2021, with expectations of continued gold purchases as a stable strategic asset [4] - From early 2024 to March 14, 2025, the Shanghai gold price increased by approximately 41%, while the gold stock index rose by about 27%, indicating a lag in gold stock performance [4] Group 5: Robotics Industry - Actuators, which convert rotational motion from motors into linear motion for robotic joints, account for about 55% of the overall cost of humanoid robots [5] - The market for frameless torque motors in China was valued at 180 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 19.73%, and collaborative robots accounting for about 70% of market demand [5] - Different types of precision reducers, such as harmonic and planetary reducers, are suitable for humanoid robots, meeting the needs for miniaturization and lightweight design [6]