编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 行情走势 01 1月6日，碳酸锂期货高开高走，多个合约在盘中涨停，主力 2605 合约接近 13.8 万元 / 吨，节后两个交易日涨幅近 14% ， 再 度 刷 新 阶 段性新高。 本轮碳酸锂价格上涨的核心动力来自供应端的强烈收缩预期。江西宜春因环保与资源监管趋严，注销了27宗锂云母矿采矿权，导致当地企业 开工率下降。 宁德时代旗下枧下窝锂矿因采矿证问题停产，预计每月减少0.8-1万吨碳酸锂供应。 该矿区复产进度涉及环评、矿权变更等多 重流程，乐观预计也要到2026年6月才能复产。 此外，消息面上扰动不断： 1）国务院于2026年1月5日印发的《关于固体废物综合治理行动计划的通知》提出，推动重有色金属矿采选一体化建设，促进尾矿就近充填 回填，原则上不再批准建设无自建矿山、无配套尾矿利用处置设施的选矿项目；推动重点行业固体废物产生量与综合消纳量逐步实现动态平 衡。对此，市场人士认为，该文件可能会对江西当前某些矿端产生一定影响。 2）国家发展改革委、财政部于2025年12月30日发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》（简称《通知》） 称，重卡与客 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the new electric vehicle (EV) purchase tax policy and subsidy changes in 2026, highlighting how these changes are prompting car manufacturers to increase promotions to attract buyers during the New Year period [3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Starting in 2026, the EV purchase tax incentive has been reduced from full exemption to a 50% reduction (5% tax rate) [3][5]. - The "Two New" policy has shifted from fixed subsidies to a percentage-based subsidy based on vehicle price, although the maximum subsidy remains unchanged [3][5]. - The new purchase tax policy is expected to increase the cost of purchasing EVs, with the tax for a vehicle priced at 31.98 million yuan being approximately 14,200 yuan [11]. Group 2: Market Response - Car manufacturers are ramping up promotions to attract hesitant buyers, with many offering cash discounts and trade-in subsidies [5][6]. - For example, Xiaopeng Motors is offering a cash discount of 3,000 yuan and a trade-in subsidy of 3,000 yuan, totaling around 6,000 yuan in discounts [5]. - Li Auto has different discount policies for various models, with the L6 model seeing a price drop of 38,000 yuan [6]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There has been an increase in consumer inquiries and test drives during the New Year period, indicating heightened interest due to the policy changes [4][5]. - Many consumers are still in a wait-and-see mode, comparing different brands' promotions before making a purchase decision [6][8]. - Despite the increased costs from the new tax, many consumers are still purchasing vehicles, as seen in the sales performance of brands like NIO and Hongmeng Zhixing [8][11]. Group 4: Sales Performance - NIO's sales during the New Year period were robust, with reports of high foot traffic and test drive requests [7][8]. - In Guangzhou, a store sold over 10 units of the new Aion model in a single day, demonstrating strong demand despite the new tax [11]. - Overall, the article indicates that while the new tax has raised costs, many brands are successfully maintaining sales momentum through strategic promotions and consumer engagement [9][11].

Core Insights - The new policy for electric vehicle (EV) purchase tax has been implemented in 2026, reducing the previous full exemption to a 50% reduction, resulting in a 5% tax rate for consumers [2][4] - The subsidy policy has shifted from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, although the maximum subsidy remains unchanged, leading to a decrease in support for lower-priced models [2][4] Group 1: Market Reactions - Car manufacturers and dealerships are increasing promotional efforts to attract hesitant buyers, aiming for a strong start to the 2026 market [2][3] - During the New Year holiday, there was a notable increase in customer inquiries and test drives, with sales staff working in larger numbers to accommodate demand [3][5] - Many dealerships are advertising their sales achievements to draw in more customers, with some offering cash discounts and trade-in subsidies [3][4] Group 2: Specific Company Strategies - Li Auto is offering varying discounts based on model, with significant reductions for popular models like the L6 and L7 [4] - NIO and other new energy brands are implementing "bottom line" measures to offset the increased purchase tax, such as cash subsidies and price reductions [6][7] - Tesla has not introduced any compensatory measures for the new tax policy but continues to see strong customer interest and sales [7] Group 3: Sales Performance - Some dealerships reported high sales volumes during the holiday, with one store selling over 10 new energy vehicles in a single day [8][9] - Despite the increased costs from the new tax, many brands are still experiencing robust sales, indicating strong market demand [8][9] - The introduction of new models and promotional strategies is expected to maintain consumer interest and sales momentum in the coming months [10][11]

电力设备 2026 年 01 月 05 日 行 业 研 究 电力设备 汽车以旧换新补贴政策如期落地，26 年新能源车 同比增速有望维持高个位数增长 投资要点： 汽车以旧换新补贴细则如期落地，中高端车补贴力度延续 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 2026 年以旧换新政策主要变化包括：1）定额补贴变为挂钩单车售 价补贴，报废补补贴力度为电车售价的 12%、油车售价的 10%，上限 分别为 2、1.5 万元；置换补贴力度为电车售价的 8%、油车售价的 6%， 上限分别为 1.5、1.3 万元；2）全国以旧换新平台数据联通，政策内容 标准化，并要求申请人在同一省区开票登记，限制异地开票套补；3） 报废旧车补贴适用车型范围滚动扩大一年。综合来看，本轮汽车以旧 换新补贴政策力度基本符合预期，单车补贴金额上限不变，对 20w 以 下大众车型补贴力度退坡，20w 以上车型政策力度基本延续。 2025 年新能源乘用车同比增速预期约为 18%，26 年同比增速有望维 持高个位数增长 狭义乘用车市场来看，2025 年 1-11 月乘用车累计批发量约为 2672.6 万台，同比增长 11.2%；出口量累计约为 513.4 万台，同比增长 2 ...

"这两台都是五座SUV，能源形式是最大区别。"在理想门店，销售顾问指着两台展车介绍，"这台油电 混合的，纯电续航差不多200公里，油能跑900到1000公里，加起来1400公里妥妥的；旁边这台纯电的， 市区能跑600 公里左右，高速500 公里，续航不错。" "现在订车最快也得等明年1月中旬。"面对消费者"为啥要等这么久"的疑问，理想的销售顾问解释，"定 的人太多，要排产。"而更让消费者纠结的是补贴政策，"这个月买的话，补贴要提车后再申请，以提车 时间为准。年底好多额度都用完了，各个地方都紧张。"销售顾问说，这个月顾客有拿到南京、常州、 南通、无锡的补贴，"安徽的刚补完，现在顾客试着申请杭州的，我们会按提车时间帮你找有补贴的城 市，帮你利益最大化。"但他也坦言，申请得靠消费者操作，"我们只能协助操作，能不能申请到，得看 各地政策和额度。" "现在订车最快也要等15 天，热门车型都排到明年1月中旬了！"12月16日，在南京河西一家新能源汽车 品牌门店内，销售顾问说。随着新能源汽车购置税减免政策进入"倒计时15天"，南京多家新能源汽车门 店迎来购车高峰，赶搭政策"末班车"的消费者络绎不绝，部分门店客流量较平日翻倍 ...

瑞财经 王敏 12月12日，据深交所官网，固德电材系统（苏州）股份有限公司（以下简称"固德电材"）及中介机构东吴证券披露关 于审核中心意见落实函的回复，涉及业绩增长可持续性。 招股书显示，固德电材成立于2008年，专注于新能源汽车动力电池热失控防护零部件及电力电工绝缘产品的研发、生产和销售，为 客户提供定制化的热失控防护解决方案和电力电工高性能绝缘解决方案。 申请文件及前次问询回复显示，固德电材主营业务为新能源汽车动力电池热失控防护零部件及电力电工绝缘产品的研发、生产和销 售。报告期内固德电材客户车型销量存在波动。2024年固德电材业绩增长较快，2025年固德电材业绩继续增长但增速下降。 | | 2025年1-9月 | | 2025 年 1-6月 | | 2024 年度 | man alles 8 1 Ju | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 金额 | 同比增速 | 金额 | 同比增速 | 金额 | 同比增速 | | 营业收入 | 75,012.83 | 18.81% | 45,761.61 | 23.85% | 90,791.86 | 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. is suing Hangzhou Wuyou Media Co., Ltd. over a contract dispute related to the return of a government subsidy for electric vehicles [2][5] Group 1: Legal Dispute - The lawsuit will be heard on November 24 at the People's Court of Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou [2] - Wuyou Media purchased a Tesla vehicle in 2022 and received a subsidy of 7,761 yuan, with a condition that the vehicle must travel 20,000 kilometers within two years [5] - Tesla is seeking the return of the subsidy because the vehicle did not meet the mileage requirement, which resulted in Tesla not receiving the government subsidy [5] Group 2: Company Communication - Wuyou Media claims that Tesla did not communicate with them before filing the lawsuit and intends to settle the matter directly by returning the relevant amount [5] - This is not the first instance of Tesla requesting customers to return government subsidies due to unmet mileage requirements [5] Group 3: Government Policy Context - In December 2016, the government revised policies to prevent fraudulent claims for subsidies, requiring electric vehicles to meet specific mileage criteria to qualify for full subsidies [5][6] - The policy states that vehicles must accumulate 20,000 kilometers within two years to apply for full financial subsidies, with pre-allocated funds being subject to return if the criteria are not met [6] Group 4: Market Performance - In October 2023, Tesla's sales in China dropped to 26,006 units, marking a 63.64% month-on-month decline and a 35.76% year-on-year decrease, placing the brand at 27th in market ranking [6] - Tesla's exports from China reached 35,491 units in October, the highest monthly export figure in two years [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impending end of the vehicle purchase tax exemption for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China, which has been in place for over a decade, and highlights the strategies adopted by various automakers to cope with this change [1][10][11]. Summary by Sections Purchase Tax Policy Changes - The exemption on vehicle purchase tax for NEVs will end by the end of 2025, with a new policy starting in 2026 that will halve the tax, allowing a maximum deduction of 15,000 yuan per vehicle [5][10]. - The current exemption allows for a maximum tax exemption of 30,000 yuan per vehicle, which will be reduced to 15,000 yuan starting next year [5][10]. Automaker Strategies - Automakers like Li Auto and Xiaomi are implementing sales strategies to encourage purchases before the tax exemption ends, including tax reimbursement policies for orders placed before the deadline [1][10]. - Many car manufacturers are launching new models in the second half of the year to boost sales, while some are offering subsidy guarantees for certain models to attract consumers [10][11]. Market Dynamics - The tightening of NEV incentives is leading to a shift in consumer behavior, with many potential buyers moving from a wait-and-see approach to making actual purchases [10][11]. - The overall market for NEVs has seen significant growth, with over 8.3 million applications for vehicle trade-ins this year, indicating a strong consumer interest in upgrading to new vehicles [11]. Impact of Subsidy Reductions - The reduction of subsidies and the tightening of policies are expected to impact the sales dynamics of different brands, with high-end brands like Li Auto and NIO seeing increased consumer inquiries, while mass-market brands like BYD are not experiencing the same urgency [15][16]. - The new regulations will also impose stricter requirements on the electric range of plug-in hybrid vehicles, potentially affecting around 40% of these models' eligibility for subsidies [16][17]. Industry Maturity - The article suggests that the NEV industry in China is transitioning from a policy-driven growth model to a market-driven one, emphasizing the need for automakers to focus on product quality, cost control, and market adaptability [17].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the fundamental improvement drove the spread of bullish sentiment, and lithium carbonate prices showed a strong upward trend. Terminal demand was hot due to the reduction of purchase tax incentives in 2026, while supply only had a small increase due to tight mica ore, leading to a decline in total lithium carbonate inventory. The widening of the C - structure of near - month contracts and the market's bet on the non - resumption of production of Zhenxiawo lithium mine also drove the price to break through and rise [4]. - In the short term, bullish sentiment may still push the price up, but the upside space is limited. The pressure on national subsidy funds is increasing, and the consumption boom driven by the reduction of purchase tax incentives in 2026 may face a cooling risk. The market has already priced in the supply gap caused by the shutdown of 8 lithium mines in Jiangxi in mid - August, and currently only Ningde Times' Zhenxiawo mine has not resumed production, so the upside space is expected to be limited [4][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - From October 17th to October 24th, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), and domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) increased, with changes of +4.58%, +5.33%, and +5.33% respectively. The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price and the main contract price also rose by 4.94% and 4.81% respectively. The prices of cobalt - acid lithium, ternary materials (811 and 622) increased, while the price of phosphoric acid iron lithium remained unchanged and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB slightly decreased by 0.05%. The total lithium carbonate inventory remained unchanged [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of October 24, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 28,699 lots, with the latest matching transaction price of 73,480 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2601 was 431,100 lots [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of October 24, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 23,170 tons, an increase of 405 tons from the previous period. The import of lithium spodumene increased significantly, but the production increase of spodumene - to - lithium factories needed a further increase in lithium prices. Mica - to - lithium production faced a shortage of raw materials due to the shutdown of Zhenxiawo mine. Short - term supply remained high but was difficult to increase significantly [7]. - **Lithium Salt Import**: In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The import volume from Chile decreased by 22.5% year - on - year, accounting for about 55.2%, and the import volume from Argentina increased by 242.9% year - on - year, accounting for about 35.5% [7]. - **Lithium Ore Import**: In September, the total import of lithium ore was about 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%. The import from Australia increased by 64.1% month - on - month, the import from Zimbabwe decreased by 7.8% month - on - month, and the import from Nigeria increased by 14.4% month - on - month. The import from South Africa increased significantly [7]. - **Demand Side** - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of October 24, the production of phosphoric acid iron lithium was about 83,503 tons, with an operating rate of 73.49% (an increase of 5.6 percentage points from the previous period) and a decrease in inventory by 2,000 tons. The production of ternary materials was about 19,084 tons, with an operating rate of 49.94% (an increase of 0.34 percentage points from the previous period) and a decrease in inventory by 150 tons. The prices of ternary materials and phosphoric acid iron lithium increased [8]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From October 1st to 19th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 632,000, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. The penetration rate was 56.1%. The consumption boom driven by the reduction of purchase tax incentives in 2026 may face a cooling risk due to the shortage of subsidy funds [9]. - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by about 1,044 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory decreased by about 1,040 tons, market inventory decreased by about 13,194 tons, and exchange inventory decreased by 1,987 lots [10]. This Week's Outlook - Short - term bullish sentiment may still push the price up, but the upside space is limited because of the increasing pressure on national subsidy funds and the market's previous pricing of the supply gap [11]. 3. Industry News - Kodal's Bougouni project in Mali shipped its first batch of 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate on October 20, which will be transported to Hainan Yangpu Port to provide raw materials for Hainan Mining's lithium salt processing project [12]. - In Q3 2025, EVE Energy achieved both volume and profit growth. Its revenue was 16.832 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35.85%, and its net profit was 1.211 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.13% [12]. - Pilgangoora produced 224,800 tons of lithium concentrate in Q3 2025, a 1.6% increase from the previous quarter, and sold 214,000 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous quarter. Its FOB operating cost decreased by 12.8% quarter - on - quarter, but it is expected to face cost - rising pressure in the remaining time of this fiscal year [12]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, import lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, etc. [14][16][18][21][23][25]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released a public notice regarding the subsidy funds for new energy vehicles (NEVs) for the years 2016-2020 and the pre-allocation for 2021-2022, highlighting the rapid development of the NEV industry in China supported by subsidy policies [1] - From 2016 to 2020, the MIIT issued a total of 1.65 billion yuan in subsidies, with Beijing New Energy Vehicles receiving approximately 55.555 million yuan, accounting for over 30% of the total subsidies, averaging 111 million yuan per year [1] - BYD received a total subsidy of 15.74 million yuan, which is less than 1% of the total, averaging 3.148 million yuan per year, indicating a significant disparity in subsidy distribution among different companies in the NEV sector [1]