按业务划分，该行预计手机游戏营收按季增1%，线上广告营收年增21%至29亿元人民币(占总营收 36%)，主要受多项增长因素驱动，包括日活跃用户、流量及每千次展示广告收入。 该行又指，游戏方面，《逃离鸭科夫》取得成功，游戏策略聚焦于垂直品类的领先地位、产品长线营运 及年轻世代。根据该行的2026年展望报告，预测人工智能将成为重点领域，而娱乐产业因其防御性质受 到青睐。 智通财经APP互相获悉，富瑞发布研报称，对于哔哩哔哩-W(09626)2025年第四季业绩预览，预期季内 营收及非通用会计准则营业利润符合该行预测，总营收年增约5%不变，达81亿元人民币;予哔哩哔哩 (BILI.US)美股目标价34美元，港股目标价267港元;维持"买入"评级。 ...

该行又指，游戏方面，《逃离鸭科夫》取得成功，游戏策略聚焦于垂直品类的领先地位、产品长线营运 及年轻世代。根据该行的2026年展望报告，预测人工智能将成为重点领域，而娱乐产业因其防御性质受 到青睐。 按业务划分，该行预计手机游戏营收按季增1%，线上广告营收年增21%至29亿元人民币（占总营收 36%），主要受多项增长因素驱动，包括日活跃用户、流量及每千次展示广告收入。 智通财经APP互相获悉，富瑞发布研报称，对于哔哩哔哩-W(09626)2025年第四季业绩预览，预期季内 营收及非通用会计准则营业利润符合该行预测，总营收年增约5%不变，达81亿元人民币;予哔哩哔哩 (BILI.US)美股目标价34美元，港股目标价267港元; 维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili has established itself as a leading video community in China, leveraging its unique operational model to become a significant player in the IP derivative market, with nearly 200 self-owned and authorized IPs by the end of 2024 [1] Group 1: Business Highlights - Bilibili's AI tool "Peanut" is set to enhance content production and optimize advertising placements, which is expected to improve eCPM [2] - The advertising business is expected to grow significantly, with revenues projected to increase by 27.7% in 2024 and 20% in the first half of 2025, reaching 8.2 billion and 4.4 billion respectively [3] - The gaming segment is performing well, with revenue of 3.3 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 68% year-on-year increase, driven by both established titles and new releases [3] Group 2: Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion from 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12%, 9%, and 8% respectively [4] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.32 billion for the same period, with significant growth rates of 44% and 33% in 2026 and 2027 [4] - The company is in a commercialization acceleration phase, with AI expected to further enhance content creation efficiency and diversify monetization strategies [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.685 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.7% [4] - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was 786 million yuan, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 233% [4] - The gross margin for the third quarter was 36.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-over-year [4] - Mobile game revenue was 1.51 billion yuan, down 17.1% year-over-year due to a high base effect from the previous year [4] - Value-added services revenue reached 3.02 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-over-year, driven by growth in paid membership revenue [4] - Advertising revenue exceeded expectations at 2.57 billion yuan compared to the consensus of 2.51 billion yuan, marking a year-over-year increase of 22.7% [4] - IP derivatives and other revenue amounted to 580 million yuan, up 2.7% year-over-year [4] Business Performance - The company is focusing on long-term game operations, with the new game "Three Kingdoms: Hundred Generals Card" set to launch in Q1 2026 [5] - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" continues to operate steadily, contributing to incremental growth in the gaming business [5] - The newly launched game "Escape from Duckkov" sold over 3 million copies in its first month, with peak online users exceeding 300,000 [5] - The core user metrics reached new highs, with daily active users (DAU) at 117 million, up 9% year-over-year, and monthly active users (MAU) at 376 million, up 8% year-over-year [6] - The average daily usage time per user increased by 6 minutes to 112 minutes, with the number of paying users reaching 35 million, up 17% year-over-year [6] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 30.18 billion yuan, 33.72 billion yuan, and 36.44 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7] - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.23 billion yuan, 3.60 billion yuan, and 4.42 billion yuan for the same years [7] - The previous forecasts for revenue and net profit have been slightly adjusted upwards [7] - The company maintains a gross margin forecast of 36.7% for 2025, increasing to 40.3% in 2026 and 40.9% in 2027 [10]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Chinese gaming market generated a revenue of 31.359 billion yuan in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 5.66% and a year-on-year growth of 7.83% [1] Market Performance - The mobile gaming sector was the primary contributor to the revenue increase, with several products benefiting from anniversary celebrations, version updates, and related activities, which effectively attracted new users and retained existing ones [1] - Standalone games like "Escape from Duckville" also showed strong performance, contributing to the growth of the standalone gaming market [1] Segment Analysis - The client game market emerged as a significant growth driver, with mature products and several cross-platform titles collectively adding several hundred million yuan in revenue [1] - The actual sales revenue from the mobile gaming market was 22.633 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 5.33% and a year-on-year increase of 2.36% [1] - The client game market achieved actual sales revenue of 7.227 billion yuan, with a month-on-month growth of 1.92% and a year-on-year growth of 29.39% [1] International Market - The actual sales revenue from domestically developed games in overseas markets reached 1.799 billion USD, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.96% and a year-on-year increase of 11.90% [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese domestic gaming market generated a revenue of 31.359 billion yuan in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 5.66% and a year-on-year growth of 7.83% driven by operational activities and dual-end products [1] Group 1: Domestic Gaming Market Performance - In October 2025, the client game market revenue reached 7.227 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 1.92% and a year-on-year increase of 29.39%, supported by stable performance of mature products and significant contributions from dual-end interoperable products [4][3] - The mobile gaming market achieved a revenue of 22.633 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month growth of 5.33% and a year-on-year growth of 2.36%, with major products enhancing user engagement and payment motivation through anniversary events and version updates [6][1] Group 2: Overseas Market Performance - The actual sales revenue of Chinese self-developed games in the overseas market was 1.799 billion USD in October 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 10.96% and a year-on-year increase of 11.90%, indicating a stable recovery driven by both mature products and new game launches [8][9]

Group 1: Wealth Growth of Entrepreneurs - The 2025 Hurun Rich List shows significant wealth growth among Chinese entrepreneurs, with the top three being Zhong Shanshan, Zhang Yiming, and Ma Huateng, all of whom have substantial business interests in the gaming industry [1][2] - Ma Huateng's wealth increased by ¥150 billion (+48%) to ¥465 billion, primarily due to the rise in Tencent's stock price and the success of its gaming strategy [2][3] - Ding Lei's wealth rose by ¥120 billion (+60%) to ¥320 billion, driven by stable revenues from several games under NetEase and the anticipated return of Blizzard's games in China [3] Group 2: Performance of Gaming Companies - Gigabit's Q3 revenue reached ¥1.968 billion, a year-on-year increase of 129.19%, with net profit soaring by 307.70%, marking a record high for the company [4][7] - Giant Network reported a Q3 revenue of ¥1.706 billion, up 115.63% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 81.19%, attributed to the success of new games [7] - 37 Interactive Entertainment's Q3 net profit reached ¥944 million, a year-on-year growth of 49.24%, driven by the performance of several new titles [7] Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The gaming industry continues to play a crucial role in the Chinese economy, with the potential for further changes in the wealth landscape as new games are launched [3] - The success of games like "Honor of Kings" and the upcoming projects under its IP indicate a robust expansion strategy within the gaming sector [15][19] - The return of Blizzard's classic games and the launch of new titles reflect a dynamic and evolving gaming market in China [31][34]

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili-W (09626.HK) is expected to announce its Q3 2025 financial results on November 13, 2025, with optimistic revenue and profit forecasts indicating significant growth compared to the previous year [1]. Financial Performance Expectations - The consensus forecast for Q3 2025 indicates expected revenue between 76.00 billion and 77.78 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.0% to 6.5% [2][4]. - Net profit is projected to be between 2.36 billion and 3.61 billion CNY, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 396.8% to 554.0% [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit is anticipated to range from 5.91 billion to 6.93 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 150.2% to 193.4% [2][4]. Business Segment Performance - Mobile gaming revenue is expected to reach 16 billion CNY, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 60.1% [5][6]. - Advertising revenue is projected at 24 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, with effective advertising revenue growing by 30% [5][6]. - The user base continues to expand, with daily active users reaching 109 million, an increase of 7% year-on-year, and monthly active users at 363 million, up 8% year-on-year [7]. User Engagement and Growth - Monthly paying users have surpassed 31 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [7]. - The platform has achieved record highs in user traffic and engagement, with both MAU and DAU showing significant increases [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the gaming industry showed a strong operational trend in Q3, with significant data supporting this from leading and mid-tier companies [2] - Domestic gaming revenue reached 880.26 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.96% but a year-on-year decline of 4.08%, suggesting mixed performance [1] - The gaming sector is experiencing a shift in investment focus, with some marginal funds moving towards more aggressive sectors, yet the underlying industry trend remains strong, supporting current stock prices [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Media Index account for 51.97% of the index, with companies like Focus Media and Giant Network leading the list [3] - The CSI Media Index tracks major companies in marketing, advertising, cultural entertainment, and digital media, reflecting the overall performance of representative listed companies in the media sector [3] - The recent performance of the gaming sector is characterized by a trend where revenue growth outpaces valuation increases, indicating strong fundamental support for the sector [2]

Game Releases - Xishanju officially announced the first seamless open-world MMO "Sword侠世界4:无限" on October 16, with a global pre-registration channel launched, featuring a game world of 1 million square meters and over 30 types of terrain and unique towns [1] - ByteDance's "境・界刀鸣" began Android testing on October 16, with global pre-registration exceeding 12 million, set to launch globally on November 21 [3] - NetEase's "命运：群星" launched on October 16, topping the domestic iOS free chart on its first day, with the overseas version previously achieving top downloads in 19 markets, contributing over 70% of revenue from the US market [5] - Bilibili's top-down shooter "逃离鸭科夫" officially launched on October 16 on PC, achieving a 94% positive rating on Steam and a peak concurrent player count of over 35,000 on its first day [7] Industry News - The first national standard for the protection of trade secrets in the online gaming sector was officially released on October 14, under the guidance of the Shanghai Municipal Market Supervision Bureau [13] - The Hainan Free Trade Port Game Industry Ecological Innovation Development Conference was held on October 18, announcing support policies for the game industry, with individual companies eligible for up to 15 million yuan in promotional vouchers [15] - Legendary game producer Tomonobu Itagaki passed away on October 16, known for founding Team Ninja and developing iconic series such as "Dead or Alive" and "Ninja Gaiden" [16] Company Developments - NetEase announced the termination of operations for its SLG mobile game "指环王：纷争," effective December 31, 2025, after only a year and a half since its launch in the domestic market [11]