机构：中泰证券 研究员：康雅雯/晏诗雨 一、哔哩哔哩：国内IP 生态平台，内容与社区运营双轮驱动。哔哩哔哩（bilibili，B 站）作为中国领先 的视频社区，凭借其独特的运营模式，已成为IP 衍生品领域的重要参与者。截至2024 年末，公司累计 运营包括国创、漫画等在内的近200 个自有及授权IP。自2020 年推出官方衍生品品牌以来，公司依托其 高粘性社区与内容生态优势，结合"会员购"电商渠道，逐步构建起"IP 孵化与内容赋能"为核心的衍生品 开发模式，并布局手办、萌盒等细分品牌，持续推动IP 商业价值提升与跨界"破圈"。 二、业务看点：AI 营销赋能，广告量价齐升，游戏锦上添花。 （1）AI：花生AI 助力内容生产，优化投放助推eCPM。AI 一方面通过AIGC 助力内容生产提质增效进 而提升流量（DAU 和人均VV）。2025 年4 季度，B 站测试的AIGC 工具"花生"正式上线，定位为视频 创作工具。AI 不仅降低了专业创作的门槛，让非专业人士也能参与到内容创作中来，而且极大地丰富 了内容供给的多样性和创新性。另一方面通过精准投放撬动eCPM 提升。2025 年，B 站商业化迎来升 级，Insig ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.685 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.7% [4] - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was 786 million yuan, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 233% [4] - The gross margin for the third quarter was 36.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-over-year [4] - Mobile game revenue was 1.51 billion yuan, down 17.1% year-over-year due to a high base effect from the previous year [4] - Value-added services revenue reached 3.02 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-over-year, driven by growth in paid membership revenue [4] - Advertising revenue exceeded expectations at 2.57 billion yuan compared to the consensus of 2.51 billion yuan, marking a year-over-year increase of 22.7% [4] - IP derivatives and other revenue amounted to 580 million yuan, up 2.7% year-over-year [4] Business Performance - The company is focusing on long-term game operations, with the new game "Three Kingdoms: Hundred Generals Card" set to launch in Q1 2026 [5] - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" continues to operate steadily, contributing to incremental growth in the gaming business [5] - The newly launched game "Escape from Duckkov" sold over 3 million copies in its first month, with peak online users exceeding 300,000 [5] - The core user metrics reached new highs, with daily active users (DAU) at 117 million, up 9% year-over-year, and monthly active users (MAU) at 376 million, up 8% year-over-year [6] - The average daily usage time per user increased by 6 minutes to 112 minutes, with the number of paying users reaching 35 million, up 17% year-over-year [6] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 30.18 billion yuan, 33.72 billion yuan, and 36.44 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7] - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.23 billion yuan, 3.60 billion yuan, and 4.42 billion yuan for the same years [7] - The previous forecasts for revenue and net profit have been slightly adjusted upwards [7] - The company maintains a gross margin forecast of 36.7% for 2025, increasing to 40.3% in 2026 and 40.9% in 2027 [10]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Chinese gaming market generated a revenue of 31.359 billion yuan in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 5.66% and a year-on-year growth of 7.83% [1] Market Performance - The mobile gaming sector was the primary contributor to the revenue increase, with several products benefiting from anniversary celebrations, version updates, and related activities, which effectively attracted new users and retained existing ones [1] - Standalone games like "Escape from Duckville" also showed strong performance, contributing to the growth of the standalone gaming market [1] Segment Analysis - The client game market emerged as a significant growth driver, with mature products and several cross-platform titles collectively adding several hundred million yuan in revenue [1] - The actual sales revenue from the mobile gaming market was 22.633 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 5.33% and a year-on-year increase of 2.36% [1] - The client game market achieved actual sales revenue of 7.227 billion yuan, with a month-on-month growth of 1.92% and a year-on-year growth of 29.39% [1] International Market - The actual sales revenue from domestically developed games in overseas markets reached 1.799 billion USD, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.96% and a year-on-year increase of 11.90% [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese domestic gaming market generated a revenue of 31.359 billion yuan in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 5.66% and a year-on-year growth of 7.83% driven by operational activities and dual-end products [1] Group 1: Domestic Gaming Market Performance - In October 2025, the client game market revenue reached 7.227 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 1.92% and a year-on-year increase of 29.39%, supported by stable performance of mature products and significant contributions from dual-end interoperable products [4][3] - The mobile gaming market achieved a revenue of 22.633 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month growth of 5.33% and a year-on-year growth of 2.36%, with major products enhancing user engagement and payment motivation through anniversary events and version updates [6][1] Group 2: Overseas Market Performance - The actual sales revenue of Chinese self-developed games in the overseas market was 1.799 billion USD in October 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 10.96% and a year-on-year increase of 11.90%, indicating a stable recovery driven by both mature products and new game launches [8][9]

Group 1: Wealth Growth of Entrepreneurs - The 2025 Hurun Rich List shows significant wealth growth among Chinese entrepreneurs, with the top three being Zhong Shanshan, Zhang Yiming, and Ma Huateng, all of whom have substantial business interests in the gaming industry [1][2] - Ma Huateng's wealth increased by ¥150 billion (+48%) to ¥465 billion, primarily due to the rise in Tencent's stock price and the success of its gaming strategy [2][3] - Ding Lei's wealth rose by ¥120 billion (+60%) to ¥320 billion, driven by stable revenues from several games under NetEase and the anticipated return of Blizzard's games in China [3] Group 2: Performance of Gaming Companies - Gigabit's Q3 revenue reached ¥1.968 billion, a year-on-year increase of 129.19%, with net profit soaring by 307.70%, marking a record high for the company [4][7] - Giant Network reported a Q3 revenue of ¥1.706 billion, up 115.63% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 81.19%, attributed to the success of new games [7] - 37 Interactive Entertainment's Q3 net profit reached ¥944 million, a year-on-year growth of 49.24%, driven by the performance of several new titles [7] Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The gaming industry continues to play a crucial role in the Chinese economy, with the potential for further changes in the wealth landscape as new games are launched [3] - The success of games like "Honor of Kings" and the upcoming projects under its IP indicate a robust expansion strategy within the gaming sector [15][19] - The return of Blizzard's classic games and the launch of new titles reflect a dynamic and evolving gaming market in China [31][34]

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili-W (09626.HK) is expected to announce its Q3 2025 financial results on November 13, 2025, with optimistic revenue and profit forecasts indicating significant growth compared to the previous year [1]. Financial Performance Expectations - The consensus forecast for Q3 2025 indicates expected revenue between 76.00 billion and 77.78 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.0% to 6.5% [2][4]. - Net profit is projected to be between 2.36 billion and 3.61 billion CNY, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 396.8% to 554.0% [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit is anticipated to range from 5.91 billion to 6.93 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 150.2% to 193.4% [2][4]. Business Segment Performance - Mobile gaming revenue is expected to reach 16 billion CNY, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 60.1% [5][6]. - Advertising revenue is projected at 24 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, with effective advertising revenue growing by 30% [5][6]. - The user base continues to expand, with daily active users reaching 109 million, an increase of 7% year-on-year, and monthly active users at 363 million, up 8% year-on-year [7]. User Engagement and Growth - Monthly paying users have surpassed 31 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [7]. - The platform has achieved record highs in user traffic and engagement, with both MAU and DAU showing significant increases [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the gaming industry showed a strong operational trend in Q3, with significant data supporting this from leading and mid-tier companies [2] - Domestic gaming revenue reached 880.26 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.96% but a year-on-year decline of 4.08%, suggesting mixed performance [1] - The gaming sector is experiencing a shift in investment focus, with some marginal funds moving towards more aggressive sectors, yet the underlying industry trend remains strong, supporting current stock prices [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Media Index account for 51.97% of the index, with companies like Focus Media and Giant Network leading the list [3] - The CSI Media Index tracks major companies in marketing, advertising, cultural entertainment, and digital media, reflecting the overall performance of representative listed companies in the media sector [3] - The recent performance of the gaming sector is characterized by a trend where revenue growth outpaces valuation increases, indicating strong fundamental support for the sector [2]

Game Releases - Xishanju officially announced the first seamless open-world MMO "Sword侠世界4:无限" on October 16, with a global pre-registration channel launched, featuring a game world of 1 million square meters and over 30 types of terrain and unique towns [1] - ByteDance's "境・界刀鸣" began Android testing on October 16, with global pre-registration exceeding 12 million, set to launch globally on November 21 [3] - NetEase's "命运：群星" launched on October 16, topping the domestic iOS free chart on its first day, with the overseas version previously achieving top downloads in 19 markets, contributing over 70% of revenue from the US market [5] - Bilibili's top-down shooter "逃离鸭科夫" officially launched on October 16 on PC, achieving a 94% positive rating on Steam and a peak concurrent player count of over 35,000 on its first day [7] Industry News - The first national standard for the protection of trade secrets in the online gaming sector was officially released on October 14, under the guidance of the Shanghai Municipal Market Supervision Bureau [13] - The Hainan Free Trade Port Game Industry Ecological Innovation Development Conference was held on October 18, announcing support policies for the game industry, with individual companies eligible for up to 15 million yuan in promotional vouchers [15] - Legendary game producer Tomonobu Itagaki passed away on October 16, known for founding Team Ninja and developing iconic series such as "Dead or Alive" and "Ninja Gaiden" [16] Company Developments - NetEase announced the termination of operations for its SLG mobile game "指环王：纷争," effective December 31, 2025, after only a year and a half since its launch in the domestic market [11]

Core Insights - October will see the launch of over 20 new games, with key titles from major companies like NetEase, Tencent, and Bilibili, showcasing a diverse range of genres and trends in the gaming industry [1][3] Game Releases - Notable new releases include NetEase's "Marvel Secret Wars," "Destiny: Stars" (domestic version), and "unVEIL the world" (overseas), along with Tencent's "Kaeis Dreamland" and Bilibili's "Escape from Duckov" [1][3] - The new games cover various genres such as shooting, strategy RPG, and action, reflecting a trend towards high-quality production, IP value enhancement, and innovative gameplay [1][3] Industry Trends - The gaming industry is experiencing a trend of simultaneous multi-platform releases, indicating a focus on expanding user reach and ensuring consistent player experiences [1][8] - The recent surge in game releases is attributed to the normalization of game license approvals and the overall heightened interest in the gaming sector [4][8] Market Dynamics - The delay of "GTA6" to May 2026 has led to a crowded release schedule in October, with many companies launching new titles to capitalize on the gaming market's momentum [4][8] - The shooting game genre remains particularly competitive, with titles like "Destiny: Stars" achieving significant pre-registration numbers and revenue growth [6][7] Strategic Insights - Companies are increasingly adopting multi-platform strategies to enhance product quality and provide a unified experience for players, moving away from traditional genre-specific competition [8] - The gaming landscape is shifting, with companies exploring new growth opportunities in niche segments rather than competing solely within established genres [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent controversy surrounding the game "Delta Operation," which has faced backlash from players due to balance adjustments made on October 5, 2023, affecting certain gameplay mechanics and character classes [1][6][27] - The adjustments have led to significant player discussions and a planned boycott on October 10, 2023, indicating a strong emotional response from the community [1][6][27] Player Reactions - Players have expressed mixed feelings about the balance changes, with some believing that the adjustments do not significantly impact core players, while others argue that the changes undermine the game's appeal to casual players [5][12][18] - A notable portion of the player base is considering switching to competing games like "Dark Zone Breakout" and "Battlefield 6" due to dissatisfaction with the recent changes [6][27] Official Response - In response to the backlash, the official team of "Delta Operation" issued an apology and compensation on October 8, 2023, within three days of the initial announcement, indicating a recognition of the issue's severity [6][12][27] - The company is preparing for further communication and adjustments to address player concerns, highlighting the importance of player feedback in game development [6][27] Market Context - The "search and extraction" genre, exemplified by "Delta Operation," is experiencing growth, with other titles in the market also gaining traction, suggesting a competitive landscape [27][28] - The article notes that while "Delta Operation" has contributed to the genre's development, the market is not yet saturated, and new entrants from major companies are expected to intensify competition [27][28] Economic Considerations - The article highlights concerns about in-game economic inflation, which has become more pronounced over time, suggesting that gameplay adjustments alone may not be sufficient to address underlying economic issues [26][27] - Players have called for more consumption outlets for in-game currency to mitigate inflation rather than restricting gameplay options [26][27]