而市场对本次科技上涨的时间和空间缺乏历史对比维度的感知，且交易拥挤度高峰后市场分 歧刚刚展露苗头，一旦面临事件催化的减少和基本面验证的空窗期，科技行情短期便有调整风 险。 论据1：时间和空间对比历史经验，本轮已经表现充分 有别于大众的认识 市场普遍认为AI科技作为牛市主线具备持续上行的动量，但我们认为，连续的上涨需要更强 的边际催化和基本面验证。 1）2025年4月的调整过后，截至8月末科技指数已经上涨近100个交易日，涨幅近60%； 2）对比2018年10月-2021年成长板块（半导体、CXO、光伏、电池），以及2012年-2015年 TMT上涨阶段交易节奏，各自在第四波上涨的时间平均是70个交易日左右，涨幅平均60%左 右； 3）后续第五波启动前的调整平均耗时30-40个交易日、回踩前高的幅度在15%-30%不等。 核心结论 当前科技行情的第四波充分演绎后，提示拥挤风险，盘整后期待第五波行情。 2） 换手率： 8月TMT日均换手率6.3%，略低于年初7.5%左右水平，但接近2019和2020年初 曾达到的6.5%左右； 图表1： 科技指数2022年以来走势演绎 资料来源：Wind、iFind、申万宏源研究 ...

Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of 2024, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have alternated in performance, with Hong Kong stocks stabilizing in Q1 driven by the internet sector, followed by new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals in Q2, leading to a compression of the AH premium to approximately 120 by June 2025 [2] - In July and August, A-shares continued to perform strongly while Hong Kong stocks faced pressure from tightening liquidity and competition in the platform economy [2] Funding Environment - The liquidity situation is improving, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority passively injecting liquidity in April and May, leading to a temporary drop in HIBOR to near zero; however, by late June, excess liquidity was being withdrawn, and HIBOR rose rapidly to around 4% in August [3] - The Hong Kong dollar has moved away from the 7.85 weak-side guarantee, and the HIBOR-SOFR overnight interest rate spread has returned to a normal range of about 0.36%, indicating that the most stringent phase of the funding environment is likely over [3] Fundamental Outlook - The consensus EPS forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2025 was revised down from 6.7% in early July to 2.35% by the end of August, primarily due to lowered profit expectations in the platform economy and increased competition in food delivery [4] - However, earnings expectations for sectors such as materials and healthcare within the Hong Kong Stock Connect have been significantly upgraded, and regulatory constraints on unfair competition are expected to reduce price wars in instant retail [4] - With the release of mid-year reports and a shift in outlook for Q4 towards "AI empowerment and efficiency recovery," the internet sector is anticipated to see a rebound in expectations [4] Long-term Framework - The long-term bullish logic for A/H shares is supported by policies and wealth migration, emphasizing a balance between an effective market and proactive government intervention [5] - The dynamic balance aims to stabilize the market while enhancing capital market functions through measures such as mergers and acquisitions, registration system deepening, and attracting long-term capital [5] Structural Changes in Funding - There is a noticeable acceleration in the entry of long-term funds such as social security, insurance, and wealth management into the market, with a clear trend of increased allocation to ETFs and institutional investments [7] - The decline in deposit and wealth management yields has created an "asset shortage" environment, suggesting that both residents and institutions have room to increase their equity allocation [7] Industry and Sector Trends - Emerging sectors such as AI computing chains, semiconductor equipment and materials, military technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robots are advancing from technology to commercialization [8] - This trend is beneficial for platform-based internet companies in AI commercialization as well as for hard technology and its upstream supply [8] External Variables and Capital Inflow - Historically, there is a strong negative correlation between the US dollar index and the Hang Seng Index; if the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle in September and the dollar weakens in Q4, the previously high short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks may trigger a short-covering rally [9] - The potential for overseas capital to flow back into A/H shares is expected to increase [9] September Outlook - The market may experience fluctuations due to external interest rates and internal expectations, but the tightest phase of the funding environment has passed, and the fundamental narrative of "AI empowerment" is set to unfold [10] - Valuations and risk premiums remain attractive, suggesting that in a "fluctuating-upward" rhythm, sectors such as technology internet (AI), innovative pharmaceuticals, high-dividend stocks, and cyclical leaders with "anti-involution" characteristics are more cost-effective main lines [10] Strategy and Allocation - The strategy focuses on capturing rebound opportunities and the main line of "qualitative change," with a shift from "price wars" to "AI efficiency" in the internet/technology sector [10] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is viewed positively, with September being a key window for positioning [10] - In the new consumption sector, performance is prioritized, emphasizing differentiation [10] - High-dividend and "anti-involution" sectors are also highlighted, with a focus on selecting companies with stable cash flow and sustainable dividends [10] Valuation Insights - The forecasted PE for the Hang Seng Technology Index is approximately 20.3 times, which is around 30% lower than levels seen since July 2020 [11] - The Hang Seng Index's TTM PE is about 12.3 times, significantly lower than that of the S&P 500, Nikkei, and European stocks [11] - The risk premium of the Hang Seng Index relative to 10-year government bonds is about 6.4%, making it attractive to global capital [11] Core Logic - Following the mid-year reports, the impact of "involution" is weakening, and the narrative for Q4 is shifting towards "AI empowerment," with a focus on commercialization and efficiency [12] - The direction includes AI applications, advertising efficiency improvements, and collaboration in cloud and computing services [12] - The strategy emphasizes holding quality leaders with strong execution capabilities during the concentrated period of academic and medical insurance directory catalysts in Q3 and Q4 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) continues to demonstrate its role as a pillar of financial stability and a key player in supporting the real economy, despite external uncertainties and internal transitions [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, ICBC achieved operating income of 409.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, and net profit of 168.80 billion yuan, with annualized average total asset return rate at 0.67% and annualized weighted average equity return rate at 8.82% [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, ICBC's total assets reached 52.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2% from the previous year, with various loans amounting to 30.19 trillion yuan, up 6.4% [2]. Asset Quality - ICBC's non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.33%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points, while the provision coverage ratio increased by 2.8 percentage points to 217.71% [2]. Support for the Real Economy - The bank has actively implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing credit support for the real economy, including over 100 billion yuan in equipment renewal loans and the launch of a project for consumer and elderly care loans [3][4]. Strategic Focus - ICBC emphasizes the importance of its traditional strengths in commercial credit, retail business, and financial technology, which are foundational to its development [5]. - The bank is committed to supporting the modernization of the industrial system and enhancing its service capabilities [5]. Retail Business Development - By the end of June 2025, ICBC's RMB deposit balance exceeded 35 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 1.92 trillion yuan, and personal consumption loans grew by 10.2% [7]. Financial Technology Advancements - ICBC leads the industry in patent filings and authorizations, reflecting its strong technological capabilities [8]. New Financial Infrastructure - ICBC is actively participating in projects like the Central Bank Digital Currency Bridge and has established a global custody service network covering 92 markets, with a total global custody scale of 2.5 trillion yuan [9][10]. Support for Strategic Emerging Industries - By mid-2025, ICBC's loans to strategic emerging industries reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with green loans exceeding 6 trillion yuan, growing at a rate of 16.4% [12]. Commitment to High-Quality Development - ICBC aims to align its growth with national economic development, contributing to high-quality growth through innovative financial services and technology [13].

阮国恒强调，AI可帮助银行提升营运效率，也可能取代简单的重复性工序。不少科技界人士已提出， AI同样会衍生新工程，鼓励银行业加强员工培训，让更多从业人员有能力应对未来的新需求。 "软技能"方面，最新报告显示，"人机互动"即员工如何与AI沟通成为一个新兴需求，由于不少技能仍然 无法由机器代劳，业界也表达了创造力及跨文化人际关系将是未来重要的技能需求。 "银行知识"也因为金融业新机遇而有需求变化。调查发现，最新人才需求进一步扩展至东盟和中东市场 业务，银行期望有更多员工了解当地的文化和金融需求，以及法律和监管规定，以拓展业务。 新华财经香港8月18日电（记者林迎楠）香港金融管理局联同香港银行公会及香港银行学会日前发布 《2026-2030年未来银行能力建设》研究报告。报告显示，科技与人才是推动香港银行业持续发展的重 要元素。 香港金管局副总裁阮国恒介绍，此次研究主要在今年初进行，共有147家银行参与调查。结果显示，科 技发展、可持续金融与大湾区及其他内地市场业务是银行业未来三大主要增长动力；此外，64%的受访 者认为东盟和中东市场业务也是银行业未来主要增长动力之一。 据了解，此次是香港金管局、香港银行公会和香港银 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is showing strong upward momentum, with trading volume and financing balance reaching historical highs, indicating a positive outlook from private equity institutions [1][2] - Major stock indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, have reached new highs since 2025, with daily trading volumes consistently above 2 trillion yuan [2][3] - Private equity firms believe that the current market trend is in a mid-cycle phase, with positive factors accumulating, leading to expectations of further upward movement in the market [2][3] Group 2 - Private equity institutions are focusing on maintaining portfolio stability amid market fluctuations, with a consensus on "maintaining composure and optimizing structure" [4][5] - High portfolio allocation is becoming mainstream among private equity firms, with some viewing potential short-term pullbacks as opportunities to increase positions [4][5] - Different risk profiles among investors lead to varied tactical approaches, with aggressive investors encouraged to take larger positions while conservative investors are advised to maintain a base allocation of 50% to 60% [4][5] Group 3 - Private equity firms are identifying structural opportunities in three main areas: high-growth technology sectors, consumer and pharmaceutical industries, and low-valuation recovery stocks [6][7] - The technology sector, particularly AI and related fields, is receiving heightened attention, with expectations of significant growth and investment opportunities [7] - Consumer and pharmaceutical sectors are also highlighted for their reallocation value, with innovative drugs and "self-indulgent consumption" trends presenting growth potential [7][8] Group 4 - The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with private equity firms advised to balance investments between high-growth technology and traditional industries undergoing value reassessment [8] - There is a notable focus on ensuring valuation safety margins, as significant disparities in valuations among popular sectors could lead to future adjustments [8] - The key to navigating the current market is finding a balance between the technological revolution and the value reassessment of traditional sectors, which is crucial for capturing investment opportunities [8]

Core Insights - Tencent's 2Q25 revenue exceeded expectations, growing 14.5% year-on-year to 184.5 billion yuan, driven by strong performance in gaming, advertising, and FBS [1] - Non-IFRS net profit increased by 10% to 63.05 billion yuan, aligning closely with expectations [1] Revenue Growth - Advertising revenue in 2Q25 rose 20% to 35.8 billion yuan, benefiting from AI applications in ad creation and targeting, with video account and mini-program ads growing by 50% and search ads by 60% [1] - Gaming revenue grew 22% to 59.2 billion yuan, surpassing expectations, with overseas gaming revenue up 35% and domestic revenue up 17% [2] - Financial and enterprise services revenue increased by 10% to 55.5 billion yuan, with financial technology revenue growing by 8% [2] Profitability and Margins - Gross margin improved by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, with VAS, advertising, and FBS margins increasing by 3.4, 2, and 4.5 percentage points respectively [2] - Non-IFRS operating profit rose by 18.5%, while net profit growth was lower due to underperformance in associate company earnings [2] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 2% and 4% respectively, with 2025 revenue expected to reach 745.3 billion yuan [3] - Target price has been increased by 17% to 700 HKD, reflecting a shift in valuation to 2026 with a corresponding P/E ratio of 20x [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Tencent Holdings achieved strong performance in Q2, with revenue growth reaching the fastest pace in four years [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - Tencent's revenue growth is driven by its WeChat ecosystem and global gaming assets, with AI applications enhancing growth across all business lines including gaming, advertising, fintech, cloud, and e-commerce [1] - The gaming and marketing services segments have both recorded over 20% year-on-year growth for two consecutive quarters [1] Group 2: Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has raised its revenue and earnings per share forecasts for Tencent from 1% to 6% for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The upward revision is attributed to improved stability in the gaming business, expanded long-term growth potential in marketing services (advertising), recovery in fintech growth, and accelerated growth in cloud/e-commerce leading to sustained operational leverage [1] Group 3: Target Price and Rating - Goldman Sachs has increased Tencent's 12-month target price from HKD 658 to HKD 701 and maintains a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Tencent Holdings achieved strong performance in Q2, recording the fastest revenue growth in four years and the highest historical gross margin, reinforcing the bank's view of Tencent as one of the most advantageous companies in the Chinese internet sector [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent's revenue growth was driven by its unique WeChat ecosystem and global gaming assets, with all business lines (gaming, advertising, fintech, cloud, e-commerce) benefiting from artificial intelligence applications [1] - The two major high-quality revenue sources (gaming and marketing services) maintained year-on-year growth of 20% or more for two consecutive quarters [1] Group 2: Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs raised its revenue and earnings per share forecasts for Tencent for 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 6%, citing improved stability in gaming business as a platform, expanded long-term growth potential in marketing services (advertising), recovery in fintech growth, and accelerated growth in cloud/e-commerce [1] - The 12-month target price for Tencent was increased from HKD 658 to HKD 701, maintaining a "buy" rating, with Tencent continuing to be a core investment choice in the Chinese internet sector, particularly favoring gaming as the preferred sub-sector [1]

Group 1 - The 2025 Service Trade Fair will be held from September 10 to 14 at Shougang Park, featuring global service trade summits, exhibitions, forums, and promotional activities [1] - The exhibition will have over 70 countries and international organizations participating, with an overall internationalization rate exceeding 20%, covering 24 of the top 30 countries and regions in service trade [1] - More than 800 enterprises, including over 330 Fortune 500 companies, are expected to participate in the exhibition, showcasing new products and achievements in various fields such as AI, fintech, and healthcare [1] Group 2 - The "Beijing Service" brand will be prominently featured at the fair, with over 280 cases collected across various sectors, including fintech and smart healthcare, aiming to enhance market outreach for enterprises [2] - The fair will utilize physical displays, trading platforms, and policy support to promote the "Beijing Service" brand effect [2] Group 3 - Service guarantee measures have been upgraded for the fair, including over 10,000 available parking spaces and intelligent vehicle recognition systems to manage traffic flow [3] - Dining facilities are planned to accommodate nearly 40,000 diners simultaneously, with outdoor seating equipped with sun protection [3] - Advanced technologies such as big data and AI will be employed for service enhancements, including real-time monitoring of venue traffic and smart vehicle management [3] Group 4 - Attendees can participate in various consumer activities at Shougang Park, including extreme sports and cultural experiences, enhancing the overall visitor experience [4] - The district will issue special consumption vouchers covering accommodation, dining, and retail, promoting local businesses and driving consumer growth [4] Group 5 - A driverless shuttle service will be introduced to connect the fair area with the Yongding River waterfront, allowing visitors to experience the scenic environment while attending the event [5]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a "dual-driven" structure in the market, highlighting the importance of maintaining a "bull market mindset" while adopting a cautious trading approach in a "slowly rising oscillating market" [1][11] - The report identifies two main driving forces: the growth categories supported by global technology collaboration and the cyclical recovery driven by "anti-involution" policies [1][11] - The report notes that the current market is experiencing a healthy influx of incremental capital, with margin financing balances reaching a new high since 2016, indicating positive market sentiment [1][14][15] Group 2 - The TMT sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, driven by a "fan effect" that attracts institutional capital, with significant increases in holdings in telecommunications and information technology sectors [2][20][22] - The semiconductor cycle is expected to enter an upward phase, supported by AI demand and recovery in related sectors, with a focus on the potential for structural gains in the industry [2][28][29] - The report suggests that the TMT sector will likely experience "cohesive upward movement" rather than a zero-sum game, with strong fundamentals supporting continued investment [2][24][25] Group 3 - The report discusses the "anti-involution" policies that are expected to lead to a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI), with signs of marginal improvement in PPI despite current low levels [3][36][39] - It highlights the structural divergence between the CRB index and PPI, indicating a potential for price recovery driven by supply-side adjustments and demand-side policy support [3][40][41] - The report anticipates that the recovery in PPI will extend to cyclical consumer assets, providing support for the overall market index [3][44][45] Group 4 - The report provides specific investment recommendations, suggesting a diversified approach that includes technology, military, cyclical recovery, and stable dividend stocks [4][59] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, such as AI, robotics, and semiconductors, while also considering cyclical sectors that may benefit from PPI recovery [4][59] - The report encourages investors to look for structural opportunities in international trade and stable dividend-paying assets as part of a balanced investment strategy [4][59]