东兴证券近日发布金属行业2026年度展望（Ⅲ）：锂行业供需关系或持续改善。从供给端观察，生产成 本分化或决定锂矿端供给增量。考虑到锂价对高成本矿企的锂产出影响，2025年后锂矿端增量或逐渐缩 减，而南美地区低成本盐湖提锂产出或决定全球锂供给弹性。我们预计2024-2027年间，全球锂供给或 由123.1万吨LCE增至186万吨LCE，期间CAGR或达15%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资摘要： 我们在2025年12月16日发布的报告《金属行业2026年度展望(I)》及《金属行业2026年度展望(II)》中分 别对工业金属板块和贵金属板块进行了讨论。一方面，我们认为金属行业的供需结构明显优化。从供给 端观察，金属行业上游已处于弱供给周期，全球矿业的供给状态在2028年前或延续强刚性化特征并且已 显现产业链环节的垂直化扩散。从需求端观察，绿色低碳能源转型、新质生产力发展及算力资本周期的 来临或将提振多金属品种需求曲线右移。另一方面，我们认为流动性周期的切换有助于金属价格的弹性 释放。尽管2025年全球货币政策已由紧缩周期转向宽松周期，但降息缩表的操作方式或将在2026年逐渐 常态化，全球央行资产负债表的再扩张或推动 ...

Economic News - In November, Shanghai's import and export value reached 387.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, with exports at 186.6 billion yuan, up 18.2%, marking a monthly historical high [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that China and Europe are negotiating on electric vehicle issues, with China willing to resolve differences through dialogue [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics released unemployment rates for November, showing a youth unemployment rate of 16.9% for ages 16-24 and 7.2% for ages 25-29 [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to optimize investment structure and maintain stable growth in traditional sectors while fostering new investment growth [1] - Yantai, Shandong, announced the discovery of Asia's largest underwater gold mine with proven reserves of over 39,000 tons, accounting for 26% of the national total [1] - The China Meteorological Administration aims to establish an advanced earth system forecasting system by 2035 [1] - The Sichuan Provincial Government plans to form a diversified R&D investment pattern by 2027, targeting a R&D investment intensity of 2.5% [1] - The People's Bank of China completed three financial preparations for Hainan Free Trade Port, enhancing cross-border financial risk prevention capabilities [1] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association reported a total export value of photovoltaic products at $24.42 billion from January to October 2025, a decrease of 13.2% year-on-year, but a significant improvement from the previous year's decline [1] - The Hubei Provincial Government is advancing the asset reform of state-owned water resources [1] Important Company News - China National Airlines' subsidiary Shenzhen Airlines plans to raise 16 billion yuan through equity financing [2] Metal Industry Outlook - The metal industry is experiencing an optimization in supply-demand structure, with a weak supply cycle expected to continue until 2028, while demand is anticipated to rise due to green energy transitions and new productivity developments [5] - The liquidity cycle shift is expected to enhance metal price elasticity, with small metals projected to see significant price and valuation increases due to supply-demand improvements and liquidity premiums [5] - Small metals like rare earths, rubidium, cesium, lithium, antimony, molybdenum, and magnesium are highlighted for their potential in terms of supply-demand dynamics and future trends [5] Rare Earth Industry - The rare earth industry is undergoing a supply-demand optimization, with supply growth slowing and demand increasing due to sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [6] - The introduction of export controls has redefined the value of the rare earth industry, enhancing China's global pricing power [6] - Related companies include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and others [7] Rubidium and Cesium Market - The global rubidium and cesium market is entering a rapid expansion phase, with significant supply growth expected from companies like Zhongmin Resources and Jinyin Galaxy [8] - Demand is projected to grow significantly due to upgrades in consumption structures and emerging applications [8] - Related companies include Zhongmin Resources and Jinyin Galaxy [9] Lithium Industry - The lithium supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, with supply growth driven by low-cost production in South America and increasing demand from the electric vehicle sector [10] - Global lithium supply is projected to grow from 1.231 million tons LCE in 2024 to 1.86 million tons LCE by 2027, with a CAGR of 15% [10] - Related companies include Zhongmin Resources, Jinyin Galaxy, Tianqi Lithium, and others [11] Antimony Industry - The antimony industry is entering a strong growth cycle due to supply constraints and increasing demand from the photovoltaic sector [11] - The global antimony supply-demand gap is expected to widen, leading to price increases and enhanced profitability for related companies [11] - Related companies include Huayu Mining, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold [12] Molybdenum Industry - The molybdenum market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with prices projected to rise due to increased demand from high-end steel and aerospace sectors [12] - Global molybdenum supply is expected to grow slowly, with demand projected to increase at a CAGR of 3.8% [12] - Related companies include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jintong Molybdenum, and Western Mining [13] Magnesium Industry - The magnesium industry is entering a state of sustained balance, with significant demand growth expected from sectors like automotive lightweighting and renewable energy [14] - Global magnesium demand is projected to grow from 1.12 million tons in 2024 to 2 million tons by 2027, with a CAGR of 21% [14] - Related companies include Baowu Magnesium, Xingyuan Zhuomai, and Wanfu Aoxian [15]

Group 1 - The metal industry is experiencing a significant optimization in its supply-demand structure, with a weak supply cycle expected to continue until 2028, characterized by strong rigidity and vertical diffusion in the industry chain [5][24][25] - The transition to a liquidity cycle is anticipated to enhance the elasticity of metal prices, as global monetary policy shifts from a tightening to a loosening phase, with central bank balance sheet expansion likely to provide liquidity premiums for small metal varieties [5][49][50] - The report highlights that small metals such as rare earths, rubidium, cesium, lithium, antimony, molybdenum, and magnesium are expected to see improved fundamentals and price elasticity due to the optimized supply-demand structure and liquidity premiums [5][23] Group 2 - The rare earth industry is undergoing a structural optimization, with supply entering an accelerated improvement phase due to industry consolidation and regulatory changes, while demand is driven by sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [6][23] - The global rubidium and cesium market is entering a rapid expansion phase, with supply expected to grow significantly due to increased production capacity, while demand is driven by upgrades in consumption structure and emerging applications [7][8][23] - The lithium industry is projected to see a continuous improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with global lithium supply expected to grow from 1.231 million tons LCE in 2024 to 1.86 million tons LCE in 2027, driven by the growth of electric vehicles and energy storage systems [9][23] - Antimony is entering a strong prosperity cycle due to supply constraints and robust demand growth from the photovoltaic sector, with a widening supply-demand gap expected to push prices higher [10][23] - Molybdenum supply is expected to remain tight, with demand driven by the high-end transformation of the steel industry, leading to an upward price trend [11][23] - The magnesium industry is anticipated to enter a sustained tight balance state, with significant demand growth driven by automotive lightweighting and other emerging applications [12][23]

| | 生产线需要多长时间？ | | --- | --- | | | 答：（1）公司可通过采购锂云母精矿自产自销等模式实现 | | | 锂云母综合利用项目中碳酸锂、铷铯盐及附产品盈利。（2）低 | | | 温硫酸法锂云母提锂项目在技术、工艺、装备等都存在较高的壁 | | | 垒，公司从实验室取得研发突破，到中试线建成，再到万吨级碳 | | | 酸锂大产能生产线量产，如今到千吨级铷铯盐生产线建成达产， | | | 每个环节在工艺技术、装备和软件控制上都取得重大突破，并取 | | | 得了相关发明专利和软件著作权。（3）公司自研的万吨级碳酸 | | | 锂产线在环保及经济效益上均优于传统工艺。公司从实验室研发 | | | 成功到万吨级碳酸锂生产线量产，再到千吨级铷铯盐产线建成达 | | | 产，历经近十年时间，竞争对手仿制需要对工艺原理、流程、装 | | | 备、工程、软件等多个环节研究并进行定制化设备制造、新建项 | | | 目所需要的审批手续等，预计需要较长时间。 | | | 3、铷铯盐当前应用的主要领域前景如何？ | | | 答：铷盐主要应用于高精度原子钟、量子物理研究、离子推 | | | 进器、磁流体发电 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company's profitability is pressured by declining lithium prices, with a focus on the potential growth of small metals and copper resources [4][9]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 121% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 134% [2][4]. - The company is diversifying its metal resources, with steady development in lithium and rubidium-cesium segments, while accelerating the expansion into gallium, germanium, and copper [9]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved lithium salt sales of 17,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%, and began direct sales of self-produced lithium concentrate, with sales of 34,800 tons [9]. - The rubidium-cesium segment generated revenue of 708 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 50.43%, with a gross profit of approximately 511 million yuan, also up by 50.15% [9]. - The copper smelting business faced a net profit loss of approximately 200 million yuan due to a significant decline in industry processing fees [9]. Future Outlook - The company is advancing its lithium sulfate project in Africa and enhancing resource utilization efficiency at the Tanco mine in Canada [9]. - A lithium salt technical transformation project commenced in June 2025, expected to increase smelting capacity by 5,000 tons while reducing costs [9]. - The copper segment is progressing with the Kitumba copper mine project, with initial design work completed and construction underway [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the approval of an environmental impact assessment for a lithium battery material project by Fengxin Jiuling Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, highlighting its significance in the lithium battery industry [1]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project aims to produce 50,000 tons of lithium battery materials annually, with the first phase focusing on the production of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate and associated rubidium and cesium salts [1]. - The project will be located in the southern area of the high-tech industrial park in Fengxin County, Yichun City [1]. Group 2: Financial Aspects - The total investment for the project is 100 million yuan, with approximately 12 million yuan allocated for environmental protection, accounting for about 1.2% of the total investment [1].