东兴晨报 P1 经济要闻 | 本期编辑 | | | --- | --- | | 分析师：刘嘉玮 | | | 010-66554043 | liujw_yjs@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： | S1480519050001 | 东兴证券研究所金股推荐 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | | --- | --- | | 002392.SZ | 北京利尔 | | 002991.SZ | 甘源食品 | | 300619.SZ | 金银河 | | 300627.SZ | 华测导航 | | 300666.SZ | 江丰电子 | | 300810.SZ | 中科海讯 | | 603209.SH | 兴通股份 | | 603239.SH | 浙江仙通 | | 688095.SH | 福昕软件 | | 688627.SH | 精智达 | 数据来源：《二月金股汇》 2026 年 02 月 02 日，东兴证券研究所 东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 2026 年 2 月 27 日星期五 1. 中国人民银行：发布关于银行业金融机构人民币跨境同业融资 ...

首席周观点：2026 年第 8 周 2026 年 2 月 26 日 首席观点 周度观点 张天丰 | 东兴证券金属首席分析师 S1480520100001，021-25102914，Zhang_tf@dxzq.net.cn 金属行业：小金属板块估值及收益弹性显现释放 DONGXING SECURITIES 东兴证券研究报告 首席周观点：2026年第8周 P1 金属行业的供需结构明显优化。从供给端观察，金属行业上游已处于弱供给周期，全球矿业 的供给状态在 2028 年前或延续强刚性化特征并且已显现产业链环节的垂直化扩散。从需求 端观察，绿色低碳能源转型、新质生产力发展及算力资本周期的来临或将提振多金属品种需 求曲线右移。 流动性周期的切换有助于金属价格的弹性释放。尽管 2025 年全球货币政策已由紧缩周期转 向宽松周期，但降息缩表的操作方式或将在 2026 年逐渐常态化，全球央行资产负债表的再扩 张或推动本就供需状态紧平衡的小金属品种获得流动性溢价。本文，我们将对稀土、铷铯、 锂、锑、钼和镁等小金属品种的基本面状态进行供需梳理和未来变化趋势的预测。我们认为， 金属行业的供需结构优化及流动性溢价或再次提振小金属板块 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the structural expansion of the rubidium and cesium market driven by the increasing penetration of perovskite solar cells and the development of space photovoltaics [7][12][13] Industry Overview - Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) are identified as a new type of solar cell with advantages such as low cost, high efficiency, lightweight, and flexibility compared to traditional silicon cells [7] - The report predicts that the penetration rate of perovskite solar cells in the photovoltaic market will rise significantly, from 1.3% in 2025 to 30% by 2030, driven by their cost-effectiveness and efficiency [9][12] Market Dynamics - The demand for rubidium and cesium is expected to grow substantially, with a projected CAGR of 115% from 2025 to 2030, as the perovskite battery market expands [12][16] - The report estimates that global demand for rubidium will increase from 37 tons in 2025 to 1696 tons by 2030, correlating with the anticipated growth in perovskite solar cell production [12][16] Technological Advancements - The stability of perovskite solar cells is a key challenge, but the addition of rubidium and cesium is expected to enhance their performance and longevity [8] - Flexible perovskite solar cells are anticipated to find applications in various fields, including building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), wearable devices, and automotive power generation [10][11] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the period from 2026 to 2027 will be crucial for the industrialization and validation of perovskite solar cells, with significant advancements expected in their application in space photovoltaics [13][14] - The integration of perovskite solar cells in space applications is projected to drive demand for rubidium significantly, with estimates indicating a potential need for 220 tons by 2030 due to space solar power initiatives [15][16]

Economic News - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration announced a "zero tariff" policy for imported goods purchased by residents of Hainan Free Trade Port, allowing an annual exemption limit of 10,000 yuan per person [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the price fluctuation limits and trading margin ratios for gold and silver futures starting February 9, 2026, with gold futures' fluctuation limit increasing from 16% to 17% [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released a plan for the high-quality development of traditional Chinese medicine, aiming to cultivate 60 high-standard raw material production bases by 2030 [3] - The Ministry of Commerce reported a 7.4% year-on-year growth in service trade in 2025, with knowledge-intensive service trade growing by 6.6% [4] - The National Internet Information Office and 11 other departments issued opinions to enhance digital services for foreign personnel entering China, aiming for a more interconnected digital service system by 2030 [5] Key Company Information - Meituan announced the acquisition of Dingdong Maicai's China business for approximately $717 million (about 5 billion yuan) [6] - Guoxuan High-Tech plans to raise 5 billion yuan through a private placement to expand its new energy battery production capacity [7] - Nanjing Mining Group intends to acquire a 10% stake in Eagle Valley Gold through a cash investment of $30 million [8] - Muyuan Foods reported a 2.73% year-on-year increase in the sale of live pigs in January 2026, with sales revenue declining by 11.93% [9] - Baidu announced a new stock repurchase plan of up to $5 billion, effective until December 31, 2028, to enhance long-term shareholder value [10] Industry Insights - The rubidium and cesium market is expected to enter a new structural expansion cycle driven by the penetration of perovskite solar cells and the development of space photovoltaics [11] - Perovskite solar cells are projected to have a market penetration rate of 30% by 2030, significantly increasing from 1.3% in 2025 [12] - The flexible structure of perovskite solar cells allows for applications in various fields, including building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), wearable devices, and vehicle power generation [13] - The global BIPV market is expected to grow from $16.66 billion to $47.02 billion between 2026 and 2031, with a CAGR of 23.06% [14] - The demand for rubidium is projected to grow at a CAGR of 115% from 2025 to 2030, driven by the increasing production of perovskite solar cells [15]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a significant turnaround in its financial performance for the year 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 22 million to 32 million yuan, compared to a loss of 80.71 million yuan in the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 14 million to 21 million yuan for the non-recurring profit and loss, a substantial improvement from a loss of 91.83 million yuan in the previous year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2025 is projected to show a net profit of 10 million to 20 million yuan, reversing a loss of 71.99 million yuan from the same period last year [1] - The turnaround in performance is considered certain due to factors such as fixed asset depreciation and accounts receivable provisions [1] Group 2: Factors Affecting Q4 Performance - The increase in fixed asset depreciation is linked to the completion of the rubidium and cesium factory project, which will impact Q4 earnings due to the transition of construction in progress to fixed assets [2] - The estimated depreciation expense for 2025 is projected to be between 23 million and 45 million yuan, significantly affecting profitability in Q4 [2] - The company is also expected to increase its bad debt provisions in Q4, influenced by a rise in accounts receivable and the aging of receivables [3] Group 3: Business Segments - The lithium battery equipment segment is benefiting from increased demand driven by the expansion of the lithium battery industry and the development of solid-state batteries, leading to a significant increase in operating cash flow and profitability [4] - The organic silicon equipment and products segment is characterized by strong stability in profitability, with ongoing innovations and a solid market position [4] - The rubidium and cesium salt project is expected to contribute to structural growth in revenue, with the company entering a high-growth phase in 2026 [5] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company has established significant technological barriers in the rubidium and cesium industry, making it difficult for new entrants to compete [6] - Strategic partnerships with companies like Tianen Lithium Industry enhance the stability of the supply chain for high-purity rubidium and cesium salts, indicating potential for continued sales growth [6] - The company's proprietary low-temperature lithium extraction technology provides a competitive edge in production efficiency and cost [6] Group 5: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.037 billion, 4.250 billion, and 6.040 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7] - Corresponding net profits are expected to be 32 million, 748 million, and 1.403 billion yuan, with significant growth in earnings per share anticipated [7] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating based on its growth potential and performance elasticity [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to market benchmarks [2][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant turnaround in its financial performance, with projected net profit for 2025 ranging from 22 million to 32 million yuan, compared to a loss of 80.71 million yuan in the previous year [3][10]. - The company is entering a new phase of growth elasticity, driven by the ramp-up of its rubidium and cesium salt project and the expansion of sales channels, alongside confirmed revenue from lithium battery equipment orders [3][6]. - The report highlights that the company has effectively entered the solid-state battery production equipment sector, securing multiple commercial orders, which positions it to benefit from industry growth [10][11]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 2.04 billion yuan in 2025, with a substantial increase to 4.25 billion yuan in 2026 and 6.04 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 35.01% in 2025 and 108.64% in 2026 [15][16]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 31.86 million yuan, with expectations of 748.01 million yuan in 2026 and 1.40 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a remarkable recovery and growth trajectory [15][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.24 yuan in 2025 to 5.59 yuan in 2026 and 10.48 yuan in 2027, showcasing the company's improving profitability [15][16]. Business Segment Analysis - The lithium battery equipment segment is anticipated to benefit from renewed demand in the lithium industry and advancements in solid-state battery technology, contributing to stable growth [6][10]. - The organic silicon equipment and products segment is characterized by strong stability in profitability, with ongoing innovations and a comprehensive product line enhancing its market position [10][11]. - The rubidium and cesium salt project is expected to significantly enhance the company's revenue structure, with the commencement of production in October 2025 marking a pivotal point for growth [11][12]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a strong competitive moat through proprietary technologies in lithium extraction and production processes, which are difficult for new entrants to replicate [12][13]. - Strategic partnerships with key players in the industry, such as Tianen Lithium Industry, are expected to bolster the stability of the supply chain for high-purity rubidium and cesium salts, further expanding sales opportunities [13].

Core Viewpoint - The company Jin Yinhe (300619) has highlighted the diverse applications of its rubidium cesium salt products in various high-tech fields such as aerospace, national defense, oil exploration, magnetohydrodynamic power generation, ion thrusters, new energy, biomedicine, and quantum communication [1] Group 1 - The company's rubidium cesium salt products are utilized in aerospace applications [1] - The products are also relevant for national defense and military industries [1] - Oil exploration is another significant application area for the company's products [1] Group 2 - The rubidium cesium salt products can be used in magnetohydrodynamic power generation [1] - They are applicable in ion thrusters, which are important for advanced propulsion systems [1] - The products have potential uses in new energy sectors, biomedicine, and quantum communication technologies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully sold rubidium cesium salt products derived from lithium mica extraction to multiple clients [1] Group 1 - The company responded to an investor inquiry regarding the sales status of rubidium cesium salt products [1]

Group 1: Metal Industry Overview - The metal industry is experiencing a significant optimization in supply-demand structure, with a weak supply cycle expected to continue until 2028, characterized by rigid supply and vertical expansion in the industry chain [2] - The transition to a liquidity cycle is anticipated to enhance the elasticity of metal prices, with a shift from a tightening to a loosening monetary policy expected to normalize by 2026, potentially driving liquidity premiums for small metal varieties [2] - The report predicts that small metals such as rare earths, lithium, and others will see improved fundamentals and price elasticity due to ongoing supply-demand optimization and liquidity effects [2] Group 2: Lithium Industry Insights - The lithium supply is projected to increase from 123.1 thousand tons LCE in 2024 to 186 thousand tons LCE by 2027, with a CAGR of 15% [1][7] - The production of lithium from salt lakes is expected to rise significantly, with output increasing from 47.5 thousand tons LCE in 2024 to 84 thousand tons LCE in 2027, representing a CAGR of 21% [1][7] - Demand for lithium is driven by the growth of electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with total lithium battery shipments expected to rise from 1,545 GWh in 2024 to 2,778 GWh by 2027, leading to a demand increase from 103 thousand tons to 184 thousand tons of lithium [7] Group 3: Rare Earth Industry Developments - The rare earth industry is undergoing a structural optimization, with supply growth slowing down due to regulatory changes and industry consolidation, while demand is increasing from sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [3] - The export control of rare earths has become a strategic tool in the US-China trade conflict, enhancing China's pricing power in the global market [3] - The supply growth rate for rare earth mining is expected to decrease significantly in 2024, indicating a tightening supply situation [3] Group 4: Rubidium and Cesium Market Expansion - The global rubidium and cesium market is entering a rapid expansion phase, with supply expected to grow significantly due to increased production capacity from key players [5] - Demand for rubidium and cesium is projected to rise sharply, driven by upgrades in existing consumption structures and emerging applications in solar energy [5] - The combined demand for rubidium and cesium is forecasted to increase from 2,466 tons in 2025 to 4,600 tons by 2027, with a CAGR of 36.6% [5] Group 5: Antimony Market Dynamics - The antimony industry is entering a strong growth cycle due to supply constraints from mine closures and environmental regulations, while demand is increasing from the photovoltaic sector [8] - The global antimony supply gap is expected to widen significantly from 2024 to 2027, indicating a bullish outlook for antimony prices [8] - The demand growth rate for antimony is projected to reach a CAGR of 11% during the forecast period [8] Group 6: Molybdenum Supply and Demand - The global supply of molybdenum is expected to grow slowly, with an increase from 273 thousand tons to 292 thousand tons from 2020 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of only 1.6% [9] - Demand for molybdenum is anticipated to rise due to the high-end and green transformation of the steel industry, with a projected CAGR of 3.8% from 2024 to 2027 [9] - The tight supply-demand balance in the molybdenum market is likely to push prices upward, benefiting related companies [9] Group 7: Magnesium Industry Outlook - The magnesium industry is expected to enter a state of sustained tight balance, with global production projected to increase from 1.12 million tons to 2 million tons from 2024 to 2027 [11] - Demand for magnesium is anticipated to grow significantly due to trends in automotive lightweighting and other emerging applications [11] - The supply-demand gap for magnesium is expected to remain tight, indicating a potential recovery in pricing and profitability for magnesium producers [11]

Economic News - In November, Shanghai's import and export value reached 387.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, with exports at 186.6 billion yuan, up 18.2%, marking a monthly historical high [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that China and Europe are negotiating on electric vehicle issues, with China willing to resolve differences through dialogue [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics released unemployment rates for November, showing a youth unemployment rate of 16.9% for ages 16-24 and 7.2% for ages 25-29 [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to optimize investment structure and maintain stable growth in traditional sectors while fostering new investment growth [1] - Yantai, Shandong, announced the discovery of Asia's largest underwater gold mine with proven reserves of over 39,000 tons, accounting for 26% of the national total [1] - The China Meteorological Administration aims to establish an advanced earth system forecasting system by 2035 [1] - The Sichuan Provincial Government plans to form a diversified R&D investment pattern by 2027, targeting a R&D investment intensity of 2.5% [1] - The People's Bank of China completed three financial preparations for Hainan Free Trade Port, enhancing cross-border financial risk prevention capabilities [1] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association reported a total export value of photovoltaic products at $24.42 billion from January to October 2025, a decrease of 13.2% year-on-year, but a significant improvement from the previous year's decline [1] - The Hubei Provincial Government is advancing the asset reform of state-owned water resources [1] Important Company News - China National Airlines' subsidiary Shenzhen Airlines plans to raise 16 billion yuan through equity financing [2] Metal Industry Outlook - The metal industry is experiencing an optimization in supply-demand structure, with a weak supply cycle expected to continue until 2028, while demand is anticipated to rise due to green energy transitions and new productivity developments [5] - The liquidity cycle shift is expected to enhance metal price elasticity, with small metals projected to see significant price and valuation increases due to supply-demand improvements and liquidity premiums [5] - Small metals like rare earths, rubidium, cesium, lithium, antimony, molybdenum, and magnesium are highlighted for their potential in terms of supply-demand dynamics and future trends [5] Rare Earth Industry - The rare earth industry is undergoing a supply-demand optimization, with supply growth slowing and demand increasing due to sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [6] - The introduction of export controls has redefined the value of the rare earth industry, enhancing China's global pricing power [6] - Related companies include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and others [7] Rubidium and Cesium Market - The global rubidium and cesium market is entering a rapid expansion phase, with significant supply growth expected from companies like Zhongmin Resources and Jinyin Galaxy [8] - Demand is projected to grow significantly due to upgrades in consumption structures and emerging applications [8] - Related companies include Zhongmin Resources and Jinyin Galaxy [9] Lithium Industry - The lithium supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, with supply growth driven by low-cost production in South America and increasing demand from the electric vehicle sector [10] - Global lithium supply is projected to grow from 1.231 million tons LCE in 2024 to 1.86 million tons LCE by 2027, with a CAGR of 15% [10] - Related companies include Zhongmin Resources, Jinyin Galaxy, Tianqi Lithium, and others [11] Antimony Industry - The antimony industry is entering a strong growth cycle due to supply constraints and increasing demand from the photovoltaic sector [11] - The global antimony supply-demand gap is expected to widen, leading to price increases and enhanced profitability for related companies [11] - Related companies include Huayu Mining, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold [12] Molybdenum Industry - The molybdenum market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with prices projected to rise due to increased demand from high-end steel and aerospace sectors [12] - Global molybdenum supply is expected to grow slowly, with demand projected to increase at a CAGR of 3.8% [12] - Related companies include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jintong Molybdenum, and Western Mining [13] Magnesium Industry - The magnesium industry is entering a state of sustained balance, with significant demand growth expected from sectors like automotive lightweighting and renewable energy [14] - Global magnesium demand is projected to grow from 1.12 million tons in 2024 to 2 million tons by 2027, with a CAGR of 21% [14] - Related companies include Baowu Magnesium, Xingyuan Zhuomai, and Wanfu Aoxian [15]